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Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To analyse spatial trade-offs in conservation of mammals, considering benefits of biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic costs. Location Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We built ecological niche models ( ENMs) for 154 mammals inhabiting the cerrado. We combined model projections to produce consensus maps of species' distributions for three types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models). We used these range summaries as input data in spatial prioritization analyses. We compared six conservation scenarios, considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, political willingness to act and the distribution of species using trade-off analyses. We complemented the current network of protected areas, aiming to achieve a target of 17% of land protection in the cerrado. Results Species-rich sites coincide with regions with high human population, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use and diverse levels of political willingness to act. We found a significant change in spatial priorities when we included socioeconomic and political dimensions in analyses: top-priority sites moved north, reduced by 68% potential conservation conflicts with human population, reduced by 72% the total monetary cost of actions and reduced by 68% conflict with other anthropogenic land uses. It also increased by 80% the beneficial effect of political willingness to act. Main conclusions Our results reinforce the idea that using only biological criteria for proposing spatial conservation priorities can undermine conservation plans given increases in socioeconomic and political conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]