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Aim To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic costs, presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants. Location The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from remote sensing and socio-economic variables for each municipality within the Atlantic Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection, with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent. Results Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of 17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20% captured most species and represented on average 26%-34% of species' distributions. The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting climate change scenarios. Main conclusions Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic Forest biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decades, Brazil made important progress in the conservation of forest ecosystems. Non-forest ecosystems ( NFE), in contrast, have been neglected, even though they cover large parts of the country and have biodiversity levels comparable to forests. To avoid losing much of its biodiversity and ecosystem services, conservation and sustainable land use policies in Brazil need to be extended to NFE. A strategy for conservation of Brazil's NFE should encompass the following elements: (1) creation of new large protected areas in NFE; (2) enforcement of legal restrictions of land use; (3) extension of subsidy programs and governance commitments to NFE; (4) improvement of ecosystem management and sustainable use in NFE; and (5) improvement of monitoring of land use change in NFE. If Brazil managed to extend its conservation successes to NFE, it not only would contribute significantly to conservation of its biodiversity, but also could take the lead in conservation of NFE world-wide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]