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Since the 2008 financial crisis, it is an important issue to assess the systemic risk of banks, but there is a lack of research on the assessment of the systemic risk of Turkey's financial system. In addition, geometric Brownian motion is used in most of the assessment frameworks of systemic risk under the normal financial market state, while the Turkish financial market has the situation of spike and thick tail. Therefore, this paper proposes a fractional Brownian motion measurement framework of systemic risk to study the systemic risk of the Turkish financial system. Firstly, this paper uses the data of 11 Turkish listed banks from 2014 to 2019 to conduct a normality test and demonstrate that its market has the characteristics of a fractal market; that is, there is a spike and thick tail distribution phenomenon in the stock price trend. Then, this paper proposes a fractional Brownian motion systemic risk measurement framework (fBSM). Based on the proposed theoretical framework and the actual data of Turkish listed banks from 2014 to 2019, a dynamically evolving Turkish banking network system is constructed to measure the systemic risk in the Turkish banking system. The research results find that the systemic risk is the highest in 2017, which then improved and gradually recovered. In addition, when analyzing the sensitivity of the Hurst index, it shows that with the increase in Hurst index, the Hurst index elasticity of Turkish banks' asset value increases gradually and the asset value also increases continuously. Hence, the Hurst index has a greater impact on asset value. Therefore, the measurement framework of systemic risk based on the fBSM can better monitor the systemic risk than the traditional geometric Brownian motion in the Turkish banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring international transport corridors' safety is essential for countries along the routes. For the sustainable development of international transport channels, this paper discusses how to evaluate the operational risks and how to alleviate the adverse effects caused by emergencies. First, an indicator system of international transport corridors' operational risks was constructed, which consists of 30 indicators from five dimensions of politics, economy, society, safety, and technology. Secondly, a comprehensive scoring approach combined with a network analysis method was applied to examine the effects caused by operational hazards. On this basis, the quantitative method and rigorous statistical analysis were used to evaluate the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor in the south line of the Silk Road Economic Belt, whose operational risks from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed. Finally, the operational risk index was discussed in detail. Results demonstrate the following. (1) During the China-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey International Transport Corridor, the Pakistan section has the highest operational risk index, and the next culprit is Turkey, followed by Iran. The Chinese section has the lowest operational risk index. (2) Pakistan has been trapped in severe political risks and security risks in recent years. Turkey suffers from severe security risks due to the Kurdish problem. Iran ranks first in terms of economic risk and social risk. Special attention should be paid to the natural risks for China. (3) Pakistan's operational risks will exhibit consistently high in the future, while China appears downwards in long-term trend. The operational risk index in Iran is on the rise. Turkey shows a flattening of and then a slight decline in the foreseeable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]