1. An Agent-Based Model for Addressing the Impact of a Disaster on Access to Primary Care Services
- Author
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Elizabeth Van Nostrand, Rishi K. Sood, Margaret A. Potter, Tina Batra Hershey, Mary G. Krauland, Angelica Bocour, Supriya Kumar, Hasan Guclu, and David Galloway
- Subjects
Population ,Psychological intervention ,Poison control ,Suicide prevention ,Health Services Accessibility ,Occupational safety and health ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Environmental health ,medicine ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,030212 general & internal medicine ,education ,education.field_of_study ,030505 public health ,Primary Health Care ,Cyclonic Storms ,business.industry ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Human factors and ergonomics ,medicine.disease ,Community health ,New York City ,Health Impact Assessment ,Medical emergency ,0305 other medical science ,business ,Health impact assessment - Abstract
ObjectiveHurricane Sandy in the Rockaways, Queens, forced residents to evacuate and primary care providers to close or curtail operations. A large deficit in primary care access was apparent in the immediate aftermath of the storm. Our objective was to build a computational model to aid responders in planning to situate primary care services in a disaster-affected area.MethodsUsing an agent-based modeling platform, HAZEL, we simulated the Rockaways population, its evacuation behavior, and primary care providers’ availability in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Data sources for this model included post-storm and community health surveys from New York City, a survey of the Rockaways primary care providers, and research literature. The model then tested geospatially specific interventions to address storm-related access deficits.ResultsThe model revealed that areas of high primary care access deficit were concentrated in the eastern part of the Rockaways. Placing mobile health clinics in the most populous census tracts reduced the access deficit significantly, whereas increasing providers’ capacity by 50% reduced the deficit to a lesser degree.ConclusionsAn agent-based model may be a useful tool to have in place so that policy makers can conduct scenario-based analyses to plan interventions optimally in the event of a disaster. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:386–393)
- Published
- 2016
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