1. A Comprehensive Machine Learning Framework for the Exact Prediction of the Age of Onset in Familial and Sporadic Alzheimer’s Disease
- Author
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Jorge I. Vélez, Luiggi A. Samper, Mauricio Arcos-Holzinger, Lady G. Espinosa, Mario A. Isaza-Ruget, Francisco Lopera, and Mauricio Arcos-Burgos
- Subjects
age of onset ,machine learning ,Alzheimer’s disease ,genetic isolates ,PSEN1 ,predictive genomics ,Medicine (General) ,R5-920 - Abstract
Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely used to develop predictive frameworks. Accurate prediction of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) age of onset (ADAOO) is crucial to investigate potential treatments, follow-up, and therapeutic interventions. Although genetic and non-genetic factors affecting ADAOO were elucidated by other research groups and ours, the comprehensive and sequential application of ML to provide an exact estimation of the actual ADAOO, instead of a high-confidence-interval ADAOO that may fall, remains to be explored. Here, we assessed the performance of ML algorithms for predicting ADAOO using two AD cohorts with early-onset familial AD and with late-onset sporadic AD, combining genetic and demographic variables. Performance of ML algorithms was assessed using the root mean squared error (RMSE), the R-squared (R2), and the mean absolute error (MAE) with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. For predicting ADAOO in familial AD, boosting-based ML algorithms performed the best. In the sporadic cohort, boosting-based ML algorithms performed best in the training data set, while regularization methods best performed for unseen data. ML algorithms represent a feasible alternative to accurately predict ADAOO with little human intervention. Future studies may include predicting the speed of cognitive decline in our cohorts using ML.
- Published
- 2021
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