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Aims/hypothesis: The objective of this study was to use Scottish national data to assess the influence of type 2 diabetes on the risk of cancer at 16 different sites, while specifically investigating the role of confounding by socioeconomic status in the diabetes-cancer relationship. Methods: All people in Scotland aged 55-79 years diagnosed with any of the cancers of interest during the period 2001-2007 were identified and classified by the presence/absence of co-morbid type 2 diabetes. The influence of diabetes on cancer risk for each site was assessed via Poisson regression, initially with adjustment for age only, then adjusted for both age and socioeconomic status. Results: There were 4,285 incident cancers in people with type 2 diabetes. RR for any cancers (adjusted for age only) was 1.11 (95% CI 1.05, 1.17) for men and 1.33 (1.28, 1.40) for women. Corresponding values after additional adjustment for socioeconomic status were 1.10 (1.04, 1.15) and 1.31 (1.25, 1.38), respectively. RRs for individual cancer sites varied markedly. Conclusions/interpretation: Socioeconomic status was found to have little influence on the association between type 2 diabetes and cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of our study was to identify subgroups of patients attending the Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening (DRS) programme who might safely move from annual to two yearly retinopathy screening. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of screening data from the DRS programme collected between 2005 and 2011 for people aged ≥12 years with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in Scotland. We used hidden Markov models to calculate the probabilities of transitions to referable diabetic retinopathy (referable background or proliferative retinopathy) or referable maculopathy. Results: The study included 155,114 individuals with no referable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy at their first DRS examination and with one or more further DRS examinations. There were 11,275 incident cases of referable diabetic eye disease (9,204 referable maculopathy, 2,071 referable background or proliferative retinopathy). The observed transitions to referable background or proliferative retinopathy were lower for people with no visible retinopathy vs mild background retinopathy at their prior examination (respectively, 1.2% vs 8.1% for type 1 diabetes and 0.6% vs 5.1% for type 2 diabetes). The lowest probability for transitioning to referable background or proliferative retinopathy was among people with two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy, where the probability was <0.3% for type 1 and <0.2% for type 2 diabetes at 2 years. Conclusions/interpretation: Transition rates to referable diabetic eye disease were lowest among people with type 2 diabetes and two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy. If such people had been offered two yearly screening the DRS service would have needed to screen 40% fewer people in 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to explore the relationships between type 2 diabetes mellitus, area-based socioeconomic status (SES) and cardiovascular disease mortality in Scotland. Methods: We used an area-based measure of SES, Scottish national diabetes register data linked to mortality records, and general population cause-specific mortality data to investigate the relationships between SES, type 2 diabetes and mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CbVD), for 2001-2007. We used negative binomial regression to obtain age-adjusted RRs of mortality (by sex), comparing people with type 2 diabetes with the non-diabetic population. Results: Among 216,652 people aged 40 years or older with type 2 diabetes (980,687 person-years), there were 10,554 IHD deaths and 4,378 CbVD deaths. Age-standardised mortality increased with increasing deprivation, and was higher among men. IHD mortality RRs were highest among the least deprived quintile and lowest in the most deprived quintile (men: least deprived, RR 1.94 [95% CI 1.61, 2.33]; most deprived, RR 1.46 [95% CI 1.23, 1.74]) and were higher in women than men (women: least deprived, RR 2.84 [95% CI 2.12, 3.80]; most deprived, RR 2.04 [95% CI 1.55, 2.69]). A similar, weaker, pattern was observed for cerebrovascular mortality. Conclusions/interpretation: Absolute risk of cardiovascular mortality is higher in people with diabetes than in the non-diabetic population and increases with increasing deprivation. The relative impact of diabetes on cardiovascular mortality differs by SES, and further efforts to reduce cardiovascular risk both in deprived groups and people with diabetes are required. Prevention of diabetes may reduce socioeconomic health inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Current drug labels for thiazolidinediones (TZDs) warn of increased fractures, predominantly for distal fractures in women. We examined whether exposure to TZDs affects hip fracture in women and men and compared the risk to that found with other drugs used in diabetes. Methods: Using a nationwide database of prescriptions, hospital admissions and deaths in those with type 2 diabetes in Scotland we calculated TZD exposure among 206,672 individuals. Discrete-time failure analysis was used to model the effect of cumulative drug exposure on hip fracture during 1999-2008. Results: There were 176 hip fractures among 37,479 exposed individuals. Hip fracture risk increased with cumulative exposure to TZD: OR per year of exposure 1.18 (95% CI 1.09, 1.28; p = 3 × 10), adjusted for age, sex and calendar month. Hip fracture increased with cumulative exposure in both men (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.03, 1.41) and women (OR 1.18; 95% CI 1.07, 1.29) and risks were similar for pioglitazone (OR 1.18) and rosiglitazone (OR 1.16). The association was similar when adjusted for exposure to other drugs for diabetes and for other potential confounders. There was no association of hip fracture with cumulative exposure to sulfonylureas, metformin or insulin in this analysis. The 90-day mortality associated with hip fractures was similar in ever-users of TZD (15%) and in never-users (13%). Conclusions/interpretation: Hip fracture is a severe adverse effect with TZDs, affecting both sexes; labels should be changed to warn of this. The excess mortality is at least as much as expected from the reported association of pioglitazone with bladder cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of and risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus, using Scottish national data. Methods: We identified individuals diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Scotland between January 2005 and May 2008 using data from the national diabetes database. We calculated the prevalence of retinopathy and ORs for risk factors associated with retinopathy at first screening. Results: Of the 51,526 people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus identified, 91.4% had been screened by 31 December 2010. The median time to first screening was 315 days (interquartile range [IQR] 111-607 days), but by 2008 the median was 83 days (IQR 51-135 days). The prevalence at first screening of any retinopathy was 19.3%, and for referable retinopathy it was 1.9%. For individuals screened after a year the prevalence of any retinopathy was 20.5% and referable retinopathy was 2.3%. Any retinopathy at screening was associated with male sex (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25), HbA (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06, 1.08 per 1% [11 mmol/mol] increase), systolic BP (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05, 1.08 per 10 mmHg increase), time to screening (OR for screening >1 year post diagnosis = 1.12, 95% CI 1.07, 1.17) and obesity (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82, 0.93) in multivariate analysis. Conclusions/interpretation: The prevalence of retinopathy at first screening is lower than in previous UK studies, consistent with earlier diagnosis of diabetes. Most newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients in Scotland are screened within an acceptable interval and the prevalence of referable disease is low, even in those with delayed screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetic ketoacidosis is a potentially life-threatening complication of diabetes and has a strong relationship with HbA. We examined how socioeconomic group affects the likelihood of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis. Methods: The Scottish Care Information - Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a dynamic national register of all cases of diagnosed diabetes in Scotland, was linked to national data on hospital admissions. We identified 24,750 people with type 1 diabetes between January 2005 and December 2007. We assessed the relationship between HbA and quintiles of deprivation with hospital admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis in people with type 1 diabetes adjusting for patient characteristics. Results: We identified 23,479 people with type 1 diabetes who had complete recording of covariates. Deprivation had a substantial effect on odds of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis (OR 4.51, 95% CI 3.73, 5.46 in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived). This effect persisted after the inclusion of HbA and other risk factors (OR 2.81, 95% CI 2.32, 3.39). Men had a reduced risk of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63, 0.79) and those with a history of smoking had increased odds of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis by a factor of 1.55 (95% CI 1.36, 1.78). Conclusions/interpretation: Women, smokers, those with high HbA and those living in more deprived areas have an increased risk of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis. The effect of deprivation was present even after inclusion of other risk factors. This work highlights that those in poorer areas of the community with high HbA represent a group who might be usefully supported to try to reduce hospital admissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary aims to move the debate regarding the adoption of HbA for diagnosis of type 2 diabetes forwards by highlighting the need to avoid addressing irrelevant questions, in particular, comparison of individuals diagnosed with different diagnostic criteria. Instead, we provide a list of important future questions, including whether adoption of HbA as the primary diagnostic test improves uptake of diabetes screening, with resultant earlier diagnosis and improvement in outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Type 2 diabetes is associated with greater relative risk of CHD in women than in men, which is not fully explained by conventional cardiovascular risk factors. We assessed whether cardiovascular risk factors including more novel factors such as markers of insulin resistance, inflammation, activated coagulation and endothelial dysfunction differ more between diabetic and non-diabetic women than between diabetic and non-diabetic men, and the role of insulin resistance. Methods: A cross-sectional study of non-diabetic and diabetic men and women ( n = 7,529) aged 60-79 years with no previous myocardial infarction who underwent an examination was conducted. Measurements of anthropometry, blood pressure and fasting measurements of lipids, insulin, glucose and haemostatic and inflammatory markers were taken. Results: Non-diabetic women tended to have more favourable risk factors and were less insulin resistant than non-diabetic men, but this was diminished in the diabetic state. Levels of waist circumference, BMI, von Willebrand factor (VWF), WBC count, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), diastolic blood pressure, HDL-cholesterol, tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and factor VIII differed more between diabetic and non-diabetic women than between diabetic and non-diabetic men (test for diabetes × sex interaction p < 0.05). The more adverse effect of diabetes on these risk markers in women was associated with, and thereby largely attenuated by, insulin resistance. Conclusions/interpretation: The greater adverse influence of diabetes per se on adiposity and HOMA-IR and downstream blood pressure, lipids, endothelial dysfunction and systemic inflammation in women compared with men may contribute to their greater relative risk of coronary heart disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: To describe the associations between age, sex and BMI at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, and test the hypothesis that men are diagnosed with diabetes at lower average BMI than women of similar age. Methods: Linear regression was used to estimate and compare the relationship between age and BMI at diagnosis among 51,920 men and 43,137 women included in a population-based diabetes register in Scotland for whom an index BMI measurement was taken within 1 year of diabetes diagnosis. We also examined HbA values by sex within the same timescale. Results: Mean BMI closest to date of diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 31.83 kg/m (SD 5.13) in men and 33.69 kg/m (SD 6.43) in women. The inverse relationship between age and BMI at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus was significantly steeper in women than in men (slope estimate in men −0.12 kg/m per year [95% CI −0.13, −0.12] women −0.18 kg/m per year [95% CI −0.18, −0.17], p < 0.0001 for formal test of interaction). Mean BMI difference was most marked at younger ages and narrowed with advancing age. However, HbA levels within 1 year of diagnoses were broadly similar in men and women. Conclusions/interpretation: Men are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at lower BMI than women across the age range. This observation may help explain why type 2 diabetes is more common among middle-aged men in populations of European extraction. Whether the same pattern is also observed in other ethnic groups requires confirmation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ims/hypothesis: The rising prevalence of diabetes worldwide has increased interest in the cost of diabetes. Inpatient costs for all people with diabetes in Scotland were investigated. Methods: The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a real-time clinical information system of almost all diagnosed cases of diabetes in Scotland, UK, was linked to data on all hospital admissions for people with diabetes. Inpatient stay costs were estimated using the 2007-2008 Scottish National Tariff. The probability of hospital admission and total annual cost of admissions were estimated in relation to age, sex, type of diabetes, history of vascular admission, HbA, creatinine, body mass index and diabetes duration. Results: In Scotland during 2005-2007, 24,750 people with type 1 and 195,433 people with type 2 diabetes were identified, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the total Scottish population (5.1 million). The estimated total annual cost of admissions for all people diagnosed with type 1 and type 2 diabetes was £26 million and £275 million, respectively, approximately 12% of the total Scottish inpatient expenditure (£2.4 billion). Sex, increasing age, serum creatinine, previous vascular history and HbA (the latter differentially in type 1 and type 2) were all associated with likelihood and total annual cost of admission. Conclusions/interpretation: Diabetes inpatient expenditure accounted for 12% of the total Scottish inpatient expenditure, whilst people with diabetes account for 4.3% of the population. Of the modifiable risk factors, HbA was the most important driver of cost in type 1 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to examine the association of existing diabetes (i.e. already diagnosed prior to pregnancy), gestational diabetes and glycosuria (both diagnosed and ascertained during pregnancy) with birthweight and future offspring BMI, waist circumference and fat mass (assessed by dual x-ray emission absorptiometry). A prospective pregnancy/birth cohort study was performed using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Among 10,591 mother–offspring pairs included in analyses with birth size, women with existing diabetes ( n = 40), those diagnosed with gestational diabetes ( n = 53) and those with at least two episodes of ++ glycosuria ( n = 372) had greater mean birthweight and odds for macrosomia (birthweight > 4,000 g) than women with none of these. Adjusted odds ratios for macrosomia were 3.56 (95% CI 1.53–8.28), 5.50 (95% CI 1.18–10.30) and 1.58 (95% CI 1.18–2.12) for existing diabetes, gestational diabetes and glycosuria, respectively. Among 6,842 mother–offspring pairs with anthropometric measurements at age 9–11 years, maternal gestational diabetes and glycosuria (but not existing diabetes) were associated with increased offspring odds of general or central overweight/obesity. For gestational diabetes, these associations attenuated towards the null with adjustment for maternal prepregnancy BMI, but independent associations remained for glycosuria. The adjusted odds ratio for general overweight/obesity when comparing women with at least two episodes of ++ glycosuria with those with no evidence of diabetes or glycosuria was 1.35 (95% CI 1.00–1.82) and that for central obesity (top 10% waist circumference vs all others) was 1.31 (95% CI 1.00–1.72). These results provide some evidence for a long-term effect of maternal glycaemia in pregnancy on offspring obesity risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this prospective study was to determine whether circulating intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM) 1, as a potential surrogate of ‘endothelial activation’, is more strongly associated with risk of vascular events than with incident diabetes. We related baseline ICAM-1 levels to vascular events (866 CHD and stroke events in 5,685 participants) and incident diabetes (292 in 4,945 without baseline diabetes) in the elderly over 3.2 years of follow-up. ICAM-1 levels correlated positively with triacylglycerol but negatively with LDL- and HDL-cholesterol. ICAM-1 levels were higher in those who developed diabetes (388.6 ± 1.42 vs 369.4 ± 1.39 ng/ml [mean±SD], p = 0.011) and remained independently associated with new-onset diabetes (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.26–2.69, p = 0.0015 per unit increase in log[ICAM-1] after adjusting for classical risk factors and C-reactive protein). By contrast, ICAM-1 levels were not significantly ( p = 0.40) elevated in those who had an incident vascular event compared with those who remained event-free, and corresponding adjusted risk associations were null (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.80–1.22, p = 0.89) in analyses adjusted for other risk factors. We show that elevated ICAM-1 levels are associated with risk of incident diabetes in the elderly at risk, despite no association with incident cardiovascular disease risk. We suggest that perturbations in circulating ICAM-1 levels are aligned more towards diabetes risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA)., Methods: We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA 1c ) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events., Results: Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA 1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA 1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications., Conclusions/interpretation: Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes., Methods: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1 H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels., Results: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission., Conclusions/interpretation: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes., Data Availability: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics&#95;of&#95;direct ., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: South Asians have a two- to fivefold higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes than those of white European descent. Greater central adiposity and storage of fat in deeper or ectopic depots are potential contributing mechanisms. We collated existing and new data on the amount of subcutaneous (SAT), visceral (VAT) and liver fat in adults of South Asian and white European descent to provide a robust assessment of potential ethnic differences in these factors., Methods: We performed a systematic review of the Embase and PubMed databases from inception to August 2021. Unpublished imaging data were also included. The weighted standardised mean difference (SMD) for each adiposity measure was estimated using random-effects models. The quality of the studies was assessed using the ROBINS-E tool for risk of bias and overall certainty of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. The study was pre-registered with the OSF Registries ( https://osf.io/w5bf9 )., Results: We summarised imaging data on SAT, VAT and liver fat from eight published and three previously unpublished datasets, including a total of 1156 South Asian and 2891 white European men, and 697 South Asian and 2271 white European women. Despite South Asian men having a mean BMI approximately 0.5-0.7 kg/m 2 lower than white European men (depending on the comparison), nine studies showed 0.34 SMD (95% CI 0.12, 0.55; I 2 =83%) more SAT and seven studies showed 0.56 SMD (95% CI 0.14, 0.98; I 2 =93%) more liver fat, but nine studies had similar VAT (-0.03 SMD; 95% CI -0.24, 0.19; I 2 =85%) compared with their white European counterparts. South Asian women had an approximately 0.9 kg/m 2 lower BMI but 0.31 SMD (95% CI 0.14, 0.48; I 2 =53%) more liver fat than their white European counterparts in five studies. Subcutaneous fat levels (0.03 SMD; 95% CI -0.17, 0.23; I 2 =72%) and VAT levels (0.04 SMD; 95% CI -0.16, 0.24; I 2 =71%) did not differ significantly between ethnic groups in eight studies of women., Conclusions/interpretation: South Asian men and women appear to store more ectopic fat in the liver compared with their white European counterparts with similar BMI levels. Given the emerging understanding of the importance of liver fat in diabetes pathogenesis, these findings help explain the greater diabetes risks in South Asians., Funding: There was no primary direct funding for undertaking the systematic review and meta-analysis., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: South Asians in general, and Asian Indians in particular, have higher risk of type 2 diabetes compared with white Europeans, and a younger age of onset. The reasons for the younger age of onset in relation to obesity, beta cell function and insulin sensitivity are under-explored., Methods: Two cohorts of Asian Indians, the ICMR-INDIAB cohort (Indian Council of Medical Research-India Diabetes Study) and the DMDSC cohort (Dr Mohan's Diabetes Specialties Centre), and one of white Europeans, the ESDC (East Scotland Diabetes Cohort), were used. Using a cross-sectional design, we examined the comparative prevalence of healthy, overweight and obese participants with young-onset diabetes, classified according to their BMI. We explored the role of clinically measured beta cell function in diabetes onset in Asian Indians. Finally, the comparative distribution of a partitioned polygenic score (pPS) for risk of diabetes due to poor beta cell function was examined. Replication of the genetic findings was sought using data from the UK Biobank., Results: The prevalence of young-onset diabetes with normal BMI was 9.3% amongst white Europeans and 24-39% amongst Asian Indians. In Asian Indians with young-onset diabetes, after adjustment for family history of type 2 diabetes, sex, insulin sensitivity and HDL-cholesterol, stimulated C-peptide was 492 pmol/ml (IQR 353-616, p<0.0001) lower in lean compared with obese individuals. Asian Indians in our study, and South Asians from the UK Biobank, had a higher number of risk alleles than white Europeans. After weighting the pPS for beta cell function, Asian Indians have lower genetically determined beta cell function than white Europeans (p<0.0001). The pPS was associated with age of diagnosis in Asian Indians but not in white Europeans. The pPS explained 2% of the variation in clinically measured beta cell function, and 1.2%, 0.97%, and 0.36% of variance in age of diabetes amongst Asian Indians with normal BMI, or classified as overweight and obese BMI, respectively., Conclusions/interpretation: The prevalence of lean BMI in young-onset diabetes is over two times higher in Asian Indians compared with white Europeans. This phenotype of lean, young-onset diabetes appears driven in part by lower beta cell function. We demonstrate that Asian Indians with diabetes also have lower genetically determined beta cell function., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: Excess risks of type 2 diabetes in UK South Asians (SA) and African Caribbeans (AC) compared with Europeans remain unexplained. We studied risks and determinants of type 2 diabetes in first- and second-generation (born in the UK) migrants, and in those of mixed ethnicity., Methods: Data from the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort of ~500,000 participants aged 40-69 at recruitment, were used. Type 2 diabetes was assigned using self-report and HbA 1c . Ethnicity was both self-reported and genetically assigned using admixture level scores. European, mixed European/South Asian (MixESA), mixed European/African Caribbean (MixEAC), SA and AC groups were analysed, matched for age and sex to enable comparison. In the frames of this cross-sectional study, we compared type 2 diabetes in second- vs first-generation migrants, and mixed ethnicity vs non-mixed groups. Risks and explanations were analysed using logistic regression and mediation analysis, respectively., Results: Type 2 diabetes prevalence was markedly elevated in SA (599/3317 = 18%) and AC (534/4180 = 13%) compared with Europeans (140/3324 = 4%). Prevalence was lower in second- vs first-generation SA (124/1115 = 11% vs 155/1115 = 14%) and AC (163/2200 = 7% vs 227/2200 = 10%). Favourable adiposity (i.e. lower waist/hip ratio or BMI) contributed to lower risk in second-generation migrants. Type 2 diabetes in mixed populations (MixESA: 52/831 = 6%, MixEAC: 70/1045 = 7%) was lower than in comparator ethnic groups (SA: 18%, AC: 13%) and higher than in Europeans (4%). Greater socioeconomic deprivation accounted for 17% and 42% of the excess type 2 diabetes risk in MixESA and MixEAC compared with Europeans, respectively. Replacing self-reported with genetically assigned ethnicity corroborated the mixed ethnicity analysis., Conclusions/interpretation: Type 2 diabetes risks in second-generation SA and AC migrants are a fifth lower than in first-generation migrants. Mixed ethnicity risks were markedly lower than SA and AC groups, though remaining higher than in Europeans. Distribution of environmental risk factors, largely obesity and socioeconomic status, appears to play a key role in accounting for ethnic differences in type 2 diabetes risk., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: Type 2 diabetes confers a greater relative increase in CVD risk in women compared with men. We examined sex differences in intraorgan fat and hepatic VLDL1-triacylglycerol (VLDL1-TG) export before and after major dietary weight loss., Methods: A group with type 2 diabetes (n = 64, 30 male/34 female) and a group of healthy individuals (n = 25, 13 male/12 female) were studied. Intraorgan and visceral fat were quantified by magnetic resonance and VLDL1-TG export by intralipid infusion techniques., Results: Triacylglycerol content of the liver and pancreas was elevated in people with diabetes with no sex differences (liver 16.4% [9.3-25.0%] in women vs 11.9% [7.0-23.1%] in men, p = 0.57, and pancreas 8.3 ± 0.5% vs 8.5 ± 0.4%, p = 0.83, respectively). In the absence of diabetes, fat levels in both organs were lower in women than men (1.0% [0.9-1.7%] vs 4.5% [1.9-8.0%], p = 0.005, and 4.7 ± 0.4% vs 7.6 ± 0.5%, p< 0.0001, respectively). Women with diabetes had higher hepatic VLDL1-TG production rate and plasma VLDL1-TG than healthy women (559.3 ± 32.9 vs 403.2 ± 45.7 mg kg -1  day -1 , p = 0.01, and 0.45 [0.26-0.77] vs 0.25 [0.13-0.33] mmol/l, p = 0.02), whereas there were no differences in men (548.8 ± 39.8 vs 506.7 ± 29.2 mg kg -1  day -1 , p = 0.34, and 0.72 [0.53-1.15] vs 0.50 [0.32-0.68] mmol/l, p = 0.26). Weight loss decreased intraorgan fat and VLDL1-TG production rates regardless of sex, and these changes were accompanied by similar rates of diabetes remission (65.4% vs 71.0%) and CVD risk reduction (59.8% vs 41.5%) in women and men, respectively., Conclusions/interpretation: In type 2 diabetes, women have liver and pancreas fat levels as high as those of men, associated with raised hepatic VLDL1-TG production rates. Dynamics of triacylglycerol turnover differ between sexes in type 2 diabetes and following weight loss. These changes may contribute to the disproportionately raised cardiovascular risk of women with diabetes., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: We assessed the real-world effect of flash monitor (FM) usage on HbA 1c levels and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH) rates among people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and across sociodemographic strata within this population., Methods: This study was retrospective, observational and registry based. Using the national diabetes registry, 14,682 individuals using an FM at any point between 2014 and mid-2020 were identified. Within-person change from baseline in HbA 1c following FM initiation was modelled using linear mixed models accounting for within-person pre-exposure trajectory. DKA and SHH events were captured through linkage to hospital admission and mortality data. The difference in DKA and SHH rates between FM-exposed and -unexposed person-time was assessed among users, using generalised linear mixed models with a Poisson likelihood. In a sensitivity analysis, we tested whether changes in these outcomes were seen in an age-, sex- and baseline HbA 1c -matched sample of non-users over the same time period., Results: Prevalence of ever-FM use was 45.9% by mid-2020, with large variations by age and socioeconomic status: 64.3% among children aged <13 years vs 32.7% among those aged ≥65 years; and 54.4% vs 36.2% in the least-deprived vs most-deprived quintile. Overall, the median (IQR) within-person change in HbA 1c in the year following FM initiation was -2.5 (-9.0, 2.5) mmol/mol (-0.2 [-0.8, 0.2]%). The change varied widely by pre-usage HbA 1c : -15.5 (-31.0, -4.0) mmol/mol (-1.4 [-2.8, -0.4]%) in those with HbA 1c  > 84 mmol/mol [9.8%] and 1.0 (-2.0, 5.5) mmol/mol (0.1 [-0.2, 0.5]%) in those with HbA 1c  < 54 mmol/mol (7.1%); the corresponding estimated fold change (95% CI) was 0.77 (0.76, 0.78) and 1.08 (1.07, 1.09). Significant reductions in HbA 1c were found in all age bands, sexes and socioeconomic strata, and regardless of prior/current pump use, completion of a diabetes education programme or early FM adoption. Variation between the strata of these factors beyond that driven by differing HbA 1c at baseline was slight. No change in HbA 1c in matched non-users was observed in the same time period (median [IQR] within-person change = 0.5 [-5.0, 5.5] mmol/mol [0.0 (-0.5, 0.5)%]). DKA rates decreased after FM initiation overall and in all strata apart from the adolescents. Estimated overall reduction in DKA event rates (rate ratio) was 0.59 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.53, 0.64]) after FM vs before FM initiation, accounting for pre-exposure trend. Finally, among those at higher risk for SHH, estimated reduction in event rates was rate ratio 0.25 (95%CrI 0.20, 0.32) after FM vs before FM initiation., Conclusions/interpretation: FM initiation is associated with clinically important reductions in HbA 1c and striking reduction in DKA rate. Increasing uptake among the socioeconomically disadvantaged offers considerable potential for tightening the current socioeconomic disparities in glycaemia-related outcomes., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: Our aim was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a planned therapeutic withdrawal of all antihypertensive and diuretic medications, on commencing a formula low-energy diet replacement, targeting remission of type 2 diabetes., Methods: Post hoc analysis of changes in BP, antihypertensive medication prescriptions and symptoms during the initial total diet replacement phase was performed in the intervention arm of the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (n = 143) and in the subset (n = 69) who discontinued antihypertensive medications at the start of total diet replacement. The Counterweight-Plus total diet replacement provided about 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) with automatic reductions in all nutrients, including sodium, to achieve marked negative energy balance and rapid weight loss over 12-20 weeks, with regular BP monitoring and an antihypertensive reintroduction protocol based on current clinical guidelines., Results: Of 143 intervention group participants who commenced total diet replacement, 78 (55%) were on treatment for hypertension at baseline. The overall mean BP fell significantly from the start of total diet replacement (week 1) and was significantly lower at week 20, after total diet replacement finished, and also at 12 and 24 months. Of the 78 participants previously on treatment for hypertension, 65 (83%) stopped all antihypertensive and diuretic medications as per protocol, and four (5%) stopped some drugs. These 69 participants experienced no immediate (within the first week) change in BP, but their mean BP fell significantly from 9 weeks. No excessive rises in BP were recorded in individuals, but antihypertensive medications were reintroduced during total diet replacement to manage raised BP for 19/69 (27.5%) participants, mostly within the first 3-7 weeks, despite some weight loss. Reintroduction of antihypertensive medications was necessary for 5/19 participants previously on one drug, and for 14/19 previously on two or more drugs. Of the 69 who stopped antihypertensives, 19 (28%) remained off medications at 24 months. Among the 53 participants who achieved sustained remissions of diabetes at 24 months (with a mean weight loss of 11.4 kg), 31 had been previously treated for hypertension. Twenty-seven stopped medication at baseline, and 15/27 required reintroduction of antihypertensive medications. Mild to moderate dizziness, suggesting some postural hypotension, was reported during total diet replacement by 51 participants, 15 of whom had recorded dizziness at baseline prior to starting total diet replacement, with nine of these on antihypertensive or diuretic medications., Conclusions/interpretation: Replacing antihypertensive medications with a 3470 kJ/day (830 kcal) diet to induce weight loss reduces BP substantially and may increase mild dizziness. It is safe to stop antihypertensives, but BP should be monitored regularly, particularly for those taking two or more antihypertensives, as over two-thirds will require reintroduction of some medications. Long-term support to maintain weight loss is vital., Trial Registration: ISRCTN registry, number 03267836., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: Research using data-driven cluster analysis has proposed five novel subgroups of diabetes based on six measured variables in individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes. Our aim was (1) to validate the existence of differing clusters within type 2 diabetes, and (2) to compare the cluster method with an alternative strategy based on traditional methods to predict diabetes outcomes., Methods: We used data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and included 114,231 individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. k-means clustering was used to identify clusters based on nine continuous variables (age at diagnosis, HbA 1c , BMI, systolic and diastolic BP, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerol and eGFR). The elbow method was used to determine the optimal number of clusters and Cox regression models were used to evaluate mortality risk and risk of CVD events. The prediction models were compared using concordance statistics., Results: The elbow plot, with values of k ranging from 1 to 10, showed a smooth curve without any clear cut-off points, making the optimal value of k unclear. The appearance of the plot was very similar to the elbow plot made from a simulated dataset consisting only of one cluster. In prediction models for mortality, concordance was 0.63 (95% CI 0.63, 0.64) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.66) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.76, 0.77) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with smoothing splines. In prediction models for CVD events, the concordance was 0.64 (95% CI 0.63, 0.65) for two clusters, 0.66 (95% CI 0.65, 0.67) for four clusters, 0.77 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the ordinary Cox model and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77, 0.78) for the Cox model with splines for all variables., Conclusions/interpretation: This nationwide observational study found no evidence supporting the existence of a specific number of distinct clusters within type 2 diabetes. The results from this study suggest that a prediction model approach using simple clinical features to predict risk of diabetes complications would be more useful than a cluster sub-stratification., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: People with obesity and a normal metabolic profile are sometimes referred to as having 'metabolically healthy obesity' (MHO). However, whether this group of individuals are actually 'healthy' is uncertain. This study aims to examine the associations of MHO with a wide range of obesity-related outcomes., Methods: This is a population-based prospective cohort study of 381,363 UK Biobank participants with a median follow-up of 11.2 years. MHO was defined as having a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 and at least four of the six metabolically healthy criteria. Outcomes included incident diabetes and incident and fatal atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), heart failure (HF) and respiratory diseases., Results: Compared with people who were not obese at baseline, those with MHO had higher incident HF (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.45, 1.75) and respiratory disease (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.16, 1.25) rates, but not higher ASCVD. The associations of MHO were generally weaker for fatal outcomes and only significant for all-cause (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.04, 1.21) and HF mortality rates (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.09, 1.89). However, when compared with people who were metabolically healthy without obesity, participants with MHO had higher rates of incident diabetes (HR 4.32; 95% CI 3.83, 4.89), ASCVD (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.10, 1.27), HF (HR 1.76; 95% CI 1.61, 1.92), respiratory diseases (HR 1.28; 95% CI 1.24, 1.33) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.14, 1.31). The results with a 5 year landmark analysis were similar., Conclusions/interpretation: Weight management should be recommended to all people with obesity, irrespective of their metabolic status, to lower risk of diabetes, ASCVD, HF and respiratory diseases. The term 'MHO' should be avoided as it is misleading and different strategies for risk stratification should be explored., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to report current rates of CVD in type 1 diabetes and to develop a CVD risk prediction tool for type 1 diabetes., Methods: A cohort of 27,527 people with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD was derived from the national register in Scotland. Incident CVD events during 199,552 person-years of follow-up were ascertained using hospital admissions and death registers. A Poisson regression model of CVD was developed and then validated in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (n = 33,183). We compared the percentage with a high 10 year CVD risk (i.e., ≥10%) using the model with the percentage eligible for statins using current guidelines by age., Results: The age-standardised rate of CVD per 100,000 person-years was 4070 and 3429 in men and women, respectively, with type 1 diabetes in Scotland, and 4014 and 3956 in men and women in Sweden. The final model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p > 0.05) and included a further 22 terms over a base model of age, sex and diabetes duration (C statistic 0.82; 95% CI 0.81, 0.83). The model increased the base model C statistic from 0.66 to 0.80, from 0.60 to 0.75 and from 0.62 to 0.68 in those aged <40, 40-59 and ≥ 60 years, respectively (all p values <0.005). The model required minimal calibration in Sweden and had a C statistic of 0.85. Under current guidelines, >90% of those aged 20-39 years and 100% of those ≥40 years with type 1 diabetes were eligible for statins, but it was not until age 65 upwards that 100% had a modelled risk of CVD ≥10% in 10 years., Conclusions/interpretation: A prediction tool such as that developed here can provide individualised risk predictions. This 10 year CVD risk prediction tool could facilitate patient discussions regarding appropriate statin prescribing. Apart from 10 year risk, such discussions may also consider longer-term CVD risk, the potential for greater benefits from early vs later statin intervention, the potential impact on quality of life of an early CVD event and evidence on safety, all of which could influence treatment decisions, particularly in younger people with type 1 diabetes., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this work was to map the number of prescribed drugs over age, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation, and to examine the association between the number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes among a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes., Methods: Utilising linked healthcare records from the population-based diabetes register of Scotland, we identified 28,245 individuals with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes on 1 January 2017. For this population, we obtained information on health status, predominantly reflecting diabetes-related complications, and information on the total number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes prescribed. We then studied the association of these baseline-level features with hospital admissions for falls, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and hypoglycaemia or death within the subsequent year using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Not considering insulin and treatment for hypoglycaemia, the mean number of prescribed drugs was 4.00 (SD 4.35). The proportion of individuals being prescribed five or more drugs at baseline consistently increased with age (proportion [95% CI]: 0-19 years 2.04% [1.60, 2.49]; 40-49 years 28.50% [27.08, 29.93]; 80+ years 76.04% [67.73, 84.84]). Controlling for age, sex, area-based socioeconomic deprivation and health status, each additional drug at baseline was associated with an increase in the hazard for hospitalisation for falls, hypoglycaemia and death but not for DKA admissions (HR [95% CI]: falls 1.03 [1.01, 1.06]; DKA 1.01 [1.00, 1.03]; hypoglycaemia 1.05 [1.02, 1.07]; death 1.04 [1.02, 1.06]). We found a number of drug classes to be associated with an increased hazard of one or more of these adverse health outcomes, including antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents, corticosteroids, opioids, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants., Conclusions: Polypharmacy is common among the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes and is strongly patterned by sociodemographic factors. The number of prescribed drugs and the prescription of particular high-risk drug classes are strong markers of an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including acute complications of diabetes.

Aims/hypothesis: Our aim was to assess the use of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and its association with glycaemic control, as measured by HbA 1c levels, frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH), overall and stratified by baseline HbA 1c ., Methods: We included 4684 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the national Scottish register, who commenced CSII between 2004 and 2019. We presented crude within-person differences from baseline HbA 1c over time since initiation, crude DKA and SHH event-rates pre-/post-CSII exposure. We then used mixed models to assess the significance of CSII exposure, taking into account: (1) the diffuse nature of the intervention (i.e. structured education often precedes initiation); (2) repeated within-person measurements; and (3) background time-trends occurring pre-intervention., Results: HbA 1c decreased after CSII initiation, with a median within-person change of -5.5 mmol/mol (IQR -12.0, 0.0) (-0.5% [IQR -1.1, 0.0]). Within-person changes were most substantial in those with the highest baseline HbA 1c , with median -21.0 mmol/mol (-30.0, -11.0) (-1.9% [-2.7, -1.0]) change in those with a baseline >84 mmol/mol (9.8%) within a year of exposure, that was sustained: -19.0 mmol/mol (-27.6, -6.5) (-1.7% [-2.5, -0.6]) at ≥5 years. Statistical significance and magnitude of change were supported by the mixed models results. The crude DKA event-rate was significantly lower in post-CSII person-time compared with pre-CSII person-time: 49.6 events (95% CI 46.3, 53.1) per 1000 person-years vs 67.9 (64.1, 71.9); rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.61 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.47, 0.77; posterior probability of reduction pp = 1.00). The crude overall SHH event-rate in post-CSII vs pre-CSII person-time was also lower: 17.8 events (95% CI 15.8, 19.9) per 1000 person-years post-exposure vs 25.8 (23.5, 28.3) pre-exposure; rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.67 (95% CrI 0.45, 1.01; pp = 0.97)., Conclusions/interpretation: CSII therapy was associated with marked falls in HbA 1c especially in those with high baseline HbA 1c . CSII was independently associated with reduced DKA and SHH rates. CSII appears to be an effective option for intensive insulin therapy in people with diabetes for improving suboptimal glycaemic control.

Aims/hypothesis: This biomarker study aimed to quantify the association of essential and other plasma fatty acid biomarkers with macrovascular disease, microvascular disease and death in individuals with type 2 diabetes., Methods: A case-cohort study (N = 3576), including 654 macrovascular events, 341 microvascular events and 631 deaths during 5 years of (median) follow-up, was undertaken as a secondary analysis of the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified-Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study (full details of the study design and primary endpoints of the ADVANCE trial and its case-cohort have been published previously). This current study considers new data: fatty acids measured from baseline plasma samples by proton NMR analysis. The fatty acids measured were n-3, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), n-6, linoleic acid, and polyunsaturated, monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids. HRs were modelled per SD higher (percentage) fatty acid. C statistics and continuous net reclassification improvement were used to test the added value of fatty acids compared with traditional cardiovascular risk factors., Results: After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, an inverse association was observed for n-3 fatty acids and DHA with the risk of macrovascular events (HR [95% CI]: 0.87 [0.80, 0.95] and 0.88 [0.81, 0.96], respectively, per 1 SD higher percentage), and for n-3 fatty acids with the risk of death (HR 0.91 [95% CI 0.84, 0.99] per 1 SD higher percentage). Such associations were also evident when investigating absolute levels of fatty acids. There were no statistically significant associations between any fatty acids and microvascular disease after adjustment. However, there was limited improvement in the predictive ability of models when any fatty acid was added., Conclusions/interpretation: Plasma n-3 fatty acids and DHA were found to be inversely associated with macrovascular disease, while n-3 fatty acids were also inversely associated with death. These results support the cardioprotective effects of n-3 fatty acids and DHA and further merit testing the role of high-dose supplementation with n-3 fatty acids in individuals with type 2 diabetes., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00145925. Graphical abstract.

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to examine whether crude mortality and mortality relative to the general population below 50 years of age have improved in recent years in those with type 1 diabetes., Methods: Individuals with type 1 diabetes aged below 50 and at least 1 year old at any time between 2004 and 2017 in Scotland were identified using the national register. Death data were obtained by linkage to Scottish national death registrations. Indirect age standardisation was used to calculate sex-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson regression was used to test for calendar-time effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs)., Results: There were 1138 deaths in 251,143 person-years among 27,935 people with type 1 diabetes. There was a significant decline in mortality rate over time (IRR for calendar year 0.983 [95% CI 0.967, 0.998], p = 0.03), but the SMR remained approximately stable at 3.1 and 3.6 in men and 4.09 and 4.16 in women for 2004 and 2017, respectively. Diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (DKAoC) accounted for 22% of deaths and the rate did not decline significantly (IRR 0.975 [95% CI 0.94, 1.011], p = 0.168); 79.3% of DKAoC deaths occurred out of hospital. Circulatory diseases accounted for 27% of deaths and did decline significantly (IRR 0.946 [95% CI 0.914, 0.979], p = 0.002)., Conclusions/interpretation: Absolute mortality has fallen, but the relative impact of type 1 diabetes on mortality below 50 years has not improved. There is scope to improve prevention of premature circulatory diseases and DKAoC and to develop more effective strategies for enabling people with type 1 diabetes to avoid clinically significant hyper- or hypoglycaemia. Graphical abstract.

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this work was to determine how weight patterns together with blood glucose, BP and lipids vary at diagnosis of diabetes by age, sex and ethnicity., Methods: Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified people with type 2 diabetes (n = 187,601) diagnosed in 1998-2015 and compared their weights, HbA 1c , BP and lipid levels at diagnosis with age-matched people without diabetes (n = 906,182), by sex and ethnic group., Results: Younger age at diagnosis was associated with greater adjusted mean difference (95% CI) in weight between those with vs without type 2 diabetes: 18.7 (18.3, 19.1) kg at age 20-39 years and 5.3 (5.0, 5.5) kg at age ≥ 80 years. Weight differentials were maximal in white women, and were around double in white people compared with South Asian and black people. Despite lower absolute values, BP differences were also greater at younger age of diabetes onset: 7 (6, 7) mmHg at age 20-39 years vs -0.5 (-0.9, -0.2) at age ≥ 80 years. BP differences were greatest in white people, and especially in women. Triacylglycerol level differences were greatest in younger men. Finally, HbA 1c levels were also higher with younger onset diabetes, particularly in black people., Conclusions/interpretation: At diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, when compared with people without diabetes, weight and BP differentials were greater in younger vs older people, in women vs men and in white vs South Asian and black people. These differences were observed even though South Asian and black people tend to develop diabetes a decade earlier with either similar or greater dysglycaemia. These striking patterns may have implications for management and prevention. Graphical abstract.

Aims/hypothesis: Individuals of South Asian origin have a high risk of type 2 diabetes and of dying from a diabetes-attributable cause. Lifestyle modification intervention trials to prevent type 2 diabetes in high-risk South Asian adults have suggested more modest effects than in European-origin populations. The strength of the evidence of individual studies is limited, however. We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of available RCTs to assess the effectiveness of lifestyle modification in South Asian populations worldwide., Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science (to 24 September 2018) for RCTs on lifestyle modification interventions incorporating diet and/or physical activity in South Asian adults. Reviewers identified eligible studies and assessed the quality of the evidence. We obtained individual participant data on 1816 participants from all six eligible trials (four from Europe and two from India). We generated HR estimates for incident diabetes (primary outcome) and mean differences for fasting glucose, 2 h glucose, weight and waist circumference (secondary outcomes) using mixed-effect meta-analysis overall and by pre-specified subgroups. We used the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to rate the quality of evidence of the estimates. The study is registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews ([PROSPERO] CRD42017078003)., Results: Incident diabetes was observed in 12.6% of participants in the intervention groups and in 20.0% of participants in the control groups. The pooled HR for diabetes incidence was 0.65 (95% CI 0.51, 0.81; I 2  = 0%) in intervention compared with control groups. The absolute risk reduction was 7.4% (95% CI 4.0, 10.2), with no interactions for the pre-specified subgroups (sex, BMI, age, study duration and region where studies were performed). The quality of evidence was rated as moderate. Mean difference for lifestyle modification vs control groups for 2 h glucose was -0.34 mmol/l (95% CI -0.62, -0.07; I 2  = 50%); for weight -0.75 kg (95% CI -1.34, -0.17; I 2  = 71%) and for waist -1.16 cm (95% CI -2.16, -0.16; I 2  = 75%). No effect was found for fasting glucose. Findings were similar across subgroups, except for weight for European vs Indian studies (-1.10 kg vs -0.08 kg, p = 0.02 for interaction)., Conclusions/interpretation: Despite modest changes for adiposity, lifestyle modification interventions in high-risk South Asian populations resulted in a clinically important 35% relative reduction in diabetes incidence, consistent across subgroups. If implemented on a large scale, lifestyle modification interventions in high-risk South Asian populations in Europe would reduce the incidence of diabetes in these populations.

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this work was to examine whether glycaemic control has improved in those with type 1 diabetes in Scotland between 2004 and 2016, and whether any trends differed by sociodemographic factors., Methods: We analysed records from 30,717 people with type 1 diabetes, registered anytime between 2004 and 2016 in the national diabetes database, which contained repeated measures of HbA 1c . An additive mixed regression model was used to estimate calendar time and other effects on HbA 1c ., Results: Overall, median (IQR) HbA 1c decreased from 72 (21) mmol/mol [8.7 (4.1)%] in 2004 to 68 (21) mmol/mol (8.4 [4.1]%) in 2016. However, all of the improvement across the period occurred in the latter 4 years: the regression model showed that the only period of significant change in HbA 1c was 2012-2016 where there was a fall of 3 (95% CI 1.82, 3.43) mmol/mol. The largest reductions in HbA 1c in this period were seen in children, from 69 (16) mmol/mol (8.5 [3.6]%) to 63 (14) mmol/mol (7.9 [3.4]%), and adolescents, from 75 (25) mmol/mol (9.0 [4.4]%) to 70 (23) mmol/mol (8.6 [4.3]%). Socioeconomic status (according to Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) affected the HbA 1c values: from the regression model, the 20% of people living in the most-deprived areas had HbA 1c levels on average 8.0 (95% CI 7.4, 8.9) mmol/mol higher than those of the 20% of people living in the least-deprived areas. However this difference did not change significantly over time. From the regression model HbA 1c was on average 1.7 (95% CI 1.6, 1.8) mmol/mol higher in women than in men. This sex difference did not narrow over time., Conclusions/interpretation: In this high-income country, we identified a modest but important improvement in HbA 1c since 2012 that was most marked in children and adolescents. These changes coincided with national initiatives to reduce HbA 1c including an expansion of pump therapy. However, in most people, overall glycaemic control remains far from target levels and further improvement is badly needed, particularly in those from more-deprived areas.

Aims/hypothesis: Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, is indicated for improving glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Whether its effects on HbA 1c and other variables, including safety outcomes, in clinical trials are obtained in real-world practice needs to be established., Methods: We used data from the comprehensive national diabetes register, the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCI-Diabetes) collaboration database, available from 2004 to mid-2016. Data within this database were linked to mortality data from the General Registrar, available from the Information Services Division (ISD) of the National Health Service in Scotland. We calculated crude within-person differences between pre- and post-drug-initiation values of HbA 1c , BMI, body weight, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and eGFR. We used mixed-effects regression models to adjust for within-person time trajectories in these measures. For completeness, we evaluated safety outcomes, cardiovascular disease events, lower-limb amputation and diabetic ketoacidosis, focusing on cumulative exposure effects, using Cox proportional hazard models, though power to detect such effects was limited., Results: Among 8566 people exposed to dapagliflozin over a median of 210 days the crude within-person change in HbA 1c was -10.41 mmol/mol (-0.95%) after 3 months' exposure. The crude change after 12 months was -12.99 mmol/mol (-1.19%) but considering the expected rise over time in HbA 1c gave a dapagliflozin-exposure-effect estimate of -15.14 mmol/mol (95% CI -15.87, -14.41) (-1.39% [95% CI -1.45, -1.32]) at 12 months that was maintained thereafter. A drop in SBP of -4.32 mmHg (95% CI -4.84, -3.79) on exposure within the first 3 months was also maintained thereafter. Reductions in BMI and body weight stabilised by 6 months at -0.82 kg/m 2 (95% CI -0.87, -0.77) and -2.20 kg (95% CI -2.34, -2.06) and were maintained thereafter. eGFR declined initially by -1.81 ml min -1 [1.73 m] -2 (95% CI -2.10, -1.52) at 3 months but varied thereafter. There were no significant effects of cumulative drug exposure on safety outcomes., Conclusions/interpretation: Dapagliflozin exposure was associated with reductions in HbA 1c , SBP, body weight and BMI that were at least as large as in clinical trials. Dapagliflozin also prevented the expected rise in HbA 1c and SBP over the period of study.

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of the study was to examine trends in the incidence and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and in hospital admissions for angina and coronary revascularisation procedures in people with type 2 diabetes and in people without diabetes in Scotland between 2006 and 2015., Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, AMI, angina and revascularisation event data were obtained for adults from hospital admissions and death records linked to a population-based diabetes register. Incidence by diabetes status was estimated using negative binomial models with adjustment or stratification by age, sex, deprivation and calendar year. Logistic regression was used to estimate AMI case fatality by diabetes status., Results: There were 129,926 incident AMI events, 41,263 angina admissions and 69,875 coronary revascularisation procedures carried out during 34.9 million person-years of follow-up. The adjusted incidence of AMI, angina and revascularisation procedures declined by 2.0% (95% CI 1.73%, 2.26%), 9.62% (95% CI 9.22%, 10.01%) and 0.35% (95% CI -0.09%, 0.79%) per year, respectively. The rate of decline did not differ materially by diabetes status. RRs of AMI for type 2 diabetes were 1.86 (95% CI 1.74, 1.98) for men and 2.32 (95% CI 2.15, 2.51) for women. Of the 77,211 people admitted to hospital with a first AMI, 7842 (10.2%) died within 30 days of admission. Case fatality was higher in people with type 2 diabetes than in people without diabetes and declined in both groups by 7.93% (95% CI 7.03%, 8.82%) per year., Conclusions/interpretation: The incidence of AMI, angina, revascularisation and AMI case fatality has declined over time, but the increased risk associated with type 2 diabetes has remained approximately constant.

Aims/hypothesis: Type 2 diabetes is an established risk factor for heart failure, but age-specific data are sparse. We aimed to determine excess risk of heart failure, based on age, glycaemic control and kidney function in comparison with age- and sex-matched control individuals from the general population., Methods: Individuals with type 2 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry 1998-2012 (n = 266,305) were compared with age-, sex- and county-matched control individuals without diabetes (n = 1,323,504), and followed over a median of 5.6 years until 31 December 2013., Results: We identified 266,305 individuals with type 2 diabetes (mean age 62.0 years, 45.3% women) and 1,323,504 control individuals. Of the individuals with type 2 diabetes and control individuals, 18,715 (7.0%) and 50,157 (3.8%) were hospitalised with a diagnosis of heart failure, respectively. Comparing individuals with diabetes with those in the control group, men and women with type 2 diabetes who were younger than 55 years of age had HRs for hospitalisation for heart failure of 2.07 (95% CI 1.73, 2.48) and 4.59 (95% CI 3.50, 6.02), respectively, using analyses adjusted for socioeconomic variables and associated conditions. Younger age, poorer glycaemic control and deteriorating renal function were all associated with increased excess risk of heart failure in those with type 2 diabetes compared with the control group. However, people with diabetes who were ≥75 years and without albuminuria or with good glycaemic control (HbA 1c ≤52 mmol/mol [≤6.9%]) had a similar risk of hospitalisation for heart failure as control individuals in the same age group., Conclusions/interpretation: Men and women aged <55 years with type 2 diabetes are at markedly elevated excess risk of heart failure. The excess risk declined with age, but persisted even with good glycaemic control. However, among those who were 75 years and older, diabetic individuals with well controlled glucose levels or without albuminuria had a risk of heart failure that was on a par with individuals without diabetes.