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Objective: To determine if impaired fasting glucose (IFG; fasting plasma glucose level 6.1-6.9 mmol/l) can predict future type 2 diabetes as accurately as does impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; 2-h plasma glucose level 7.8-11.0 mmol/l)., Research Design and Methods: A longitudinal population-based study was performed with surveys in 1987 and 1992 on the island of Mauritius, assessing diabetes status by the oral glucose tolerance test. A total of 3,717 subjects took part in both surveys. Of these subjects, 3,229 were not diabetic in 1987 and formed the basis of this study., Results: At baseline, there were 607 subjects with IGT and 266 subjects with IFG. There were 297 subjects who developed diabetes by 1992. For predicting progression to type 2 diabetes, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were 26, 94, and 29% for IFG and 50, 84, and 24% for IGT, respectively. Only 26% of subjects that progressed to type 2 diabetes were predicted by their IFG values, but a further 35% could be identified by also considering IGT. The sensitivities were 24% for IFG and 37% for IGT in men and 26% for IFG and 66% for IGT in women, respectively., Conclusions: These data demonstrate the higher sensitivity of IGT over IFG for predicting progression to type 2 diabetes. Screening by the criteria for IFG alone would identify fewer people who subsequently progress to type 2 diabetes than would the oral glucose tolerance test.

Objective: To document the incidence of IDDM in Mauritian children and adolescents 0-19 yr of age from 1986 to 1990., Research Design and Methods: We used a population-based register that used pediatricians, physicians, nutritionists, and general practitioners as a primary source of retrospective case ascertainment. The denominator data were obtained from the Statistics Office of the Ministry of Health (Port Louis, Mauritius)., Results: In 1990, 37 newly diagnosed IDDM cases (22 females and 15 males) were identified between 1986 and 1990 among the population < or = 19 yr of age. The average incidence density per year was 1.9/100,000 people and was slightly higher among girls (2.2/100,000) than among boys (1.5/100,000). The average age-standardized incidence density was 2.1/100,000 people (95% confidence interval 1.5-3.0) among children < or = 14 yr of age, 2.5/100,000 people (95% confidence interval 1.5-3.9) among girls, and 1.8/100,000 people (95% confidence interval 1.0-3.0) among boys. The incidence was similarly low in Mauritians of Asian Indian, Chinese, and Creole (predominantly African) origin., Conclusions: The incidence of IDDM in Mauritian children and adolescents is among the lowest yet reported. This sharply contrasts with the very high risk of NIDDM found among the adult population in this rapidly modernizing country.

Objective: We wanted to determine whether obesity, abdominal fat distribution, and physical inactivity act similarly and independently as risk factors for noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in Hindu and Muslim Asian Indians, African-origin Creoles, and Chinese Mauritians., Research Design and Methods: We examined a population-based random cluster sample of 5080 adult subjects from the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius. Glucose tolerance was assessed with a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and World Health Organization criteria., Results: Univariate data and multiple logistic regression models indicated that age, family history of diabetes, body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), and physical inactivity conveyed similar risk for NIDDM (and IGT) in each ethnic group. After adjusting for all other factors, Hindu ethnicity conferred additional risk for NIDDM (but not IGT) in men, but in women there were no clear ethnic differences. Although BMI and WHR were independently significant risk factors, WHR conveyed relatively stronger risk for NIDDM than BMI in women, whereas the converse was true in men. For ethnic groups combined, the independent odds ratios for IGT associated with moderate and low physical activity scores (relative to high) were 1.56 and 1.71 (P less than 0.05), respectively, in men and 1.32 and 1.69 (P less than 0.05) in women. In subjects with asymptomatic NIDDM diagnosed during the survey, the independent odds ratios were 1.96 and 2.00 (P less than 0.05) in men and 1.73 and 2.70 (P less than 0.05) in women., Conclusions: These data indicate that BMI, abdominally distributed fat, and physical inactivity are important independent risk factors for both IGT and NIDDM in diverse ethnic groups. Attributable risk fractions for Mauritius suggest that populationwide modification of levels of these risk factors could potentially result in substantially lower occurrence of NIDDM (and IGT). Such interventions should be attempted in high-risk populations.