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Aims: To examine patient characteristics that predict adverse anticholinergic-type events in older people. Methods: This retrospective population-level study included 2,248 hospitalised patients. Individual data on medicines that are commonly associated with anticholinergic events (delirium, constipation and urinary retention) were identified. Patient characteristics examined were medicines with anticholinergic effects (ACh burden), age, sex, non-anticholinergic medicines (non-ACM), Charlson comorbidity index scores and ethnicity. The Akaike information criterion was used for model selection. The data were analysed using logistic regression models for anticholinergic events using the software NONMEM. Results: ACh burden was found to be a significant independent predictor for developing an anticholinergic event [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 3.21, 95% CI: 1.23-5.81] for those taking an average of 5 anticholinergic medicines compared to those taking 1. Both non-ACM and age were also independent risk factors (aOR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.31-1.51 and aOR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.05-1.10, respectively). Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first study that has examined population-level data in a nonlinear model framework to predict anticholinergic-type adverse events. This study evaluated the relationship between important patient characteristics and the occurrence of anticholinergic-type events. These findings reinforce the clinical significance of reviewing anticholinergic medicines in older people.

Background: Donepezil is indicated for the management of mild to moderate dementia, particularly in Alzheimer's disease. Several studies have described low adherence rates with donepezil. Aim: To examine and measure donepezil adherence, persistence and time to first discontinuation in older New Zealanders. Methods: An inception cohort of 1,999 new users of donepezil, aged 65 years or older, were identified from the Pharmaceutical Collections and National Minimum Dataset from 1 November 2010 to 31 December 2013. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis were used to estimate the cumulative probability and risk of time to first discontinuation of donepezil therapy. Results: The mean age of the cohort was 79.5 ± 6.4 years and included 42.7% females. Adherence was high (89.0%), while the proportion of donepezil dispensings (81.0-32.5%) declined between 6 and 36 months. Persistence between the 1st and 6th dispensing visit decreased by 19.0%, and 11.0% of the total cohort had a gap of 31 days or more. The adjusted risk of time to first discontinuation in the non-adherent group was 2.2 times (95% CI 1.9-2.6) that of the adherent group. Conclusions: The non-adherent new donepezil users, on average, discontinued faster than the adherent group. Time to first discontinuation in this study was higher compared to discontinuation rates observed in clinical trials.