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As Bagus and Howden (2010) highlighted, one of the paths to achieve a more fruitful understanding of the business cycle involves examining saving as a heterogeneous analytical category. The aim of this paper is to continue this line of inquiry using the capital-based framework developed by Garrison (2001). This paper contributes to the literature by studying the impact of heterogenous savings on economic growth and business cycles in a capital-based macroeconomics framework. With this aim the implications of disaggregated saving is analysed by means of the differential market signals that are generated by cash-build savings (Pătruți, 2017) and loanable funds accessible through the credit markets.

We analyse gender gaps in published works on economics in Uruguay. First of all, we describe the evolution of the professional context and female participation in the discipline. We then provide an empirical analysis of the research output based on two databases: one containing working papers and technical documents and the other including articles published in journals. The main results are: a) men produce more published articles than women but there is no gender gap in working papers; b) women and men are unevenly represented throughout different fields; c) collaboration with non-local authors is more likely among men than women; d) non-local co-authorship is strongly associated with the gender gap in journal articles production.

The past twenty years have seen increased importance attached to high growth firms (HGFs). Despite decades of research, our knowledge of HGFs remains limited. Scholars have asserted that a key differentiator of HGFs is their ability to create value for their customers, yet this relationship has gone untested. This paper makes an important contribution to the literature by empirically exploring this relationship. Drawing on comparative cohorts of HGFs and non-HGFs, this paper finds that HGFs were found to be much more likely than their non-HGF counterparts to be positively influencing customer perceived value, the creation of which is considered to be an important enabler of firm performance and growth. In addition to its empirical contribution to the high growth entrepreneurship literature, this paper raises issues for future research.

This paper analyses the scope, origins, justification, and commitments of the extended fund arrangement (EFA) signed by the Ecuadorian government and the IMF in March 2019. This agreement, which represents a little more than a third of Argentina’ Stand-By Agreement, promotes Central Bank independence, austerity, as well as structural adjustment policies, but its basic’ diagnosis omits external sector problems. This paper presents the implications and contradictions of the agreement to promote structural changes in the real sector and how these foster policies that protect the interests of bondholders and bankers.

This paper investigates the impact of the unprecedented climate shocks of the 2010 in Colombia on the results of the Saber 11 standardized test for the 2010- 2012 period. By using two unique datasets, this paper contributes to the literature by providing a better estimate of the human capital costs of climate shocks. The findings indicate that the climate shocks occurred on 2010 decreased Saber 11 test scores. The impact was stronger for female students, students from rural areas and students from low-income families. A possible channel of transmission is identified: the destruction of schools.

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of fiscal instruments for Colombia on two of the country’s main issues: income inequality and informality, phenomena that have been exacerbated by the pandemic. For this purpose, we built a DSGE model whose main differentiating element is the level of liquidity of households. The model carried out various simulations of transfers to households, and we examined the effects of these on different macroeconomic variables. We conclude that for the economy to return to the same fiscal adjustment it had before a transfer, the government will somehow have to increase the productivity of the formal sector, as this increase will have a positive effect on growth, increase income taxes and employment, and decrease informality.

The neorealist approach to institutional change has the merits of emphasising the importance of the Dominant Social Bloc (DSB) in institutions, and of integrating economics, society, and politics in the formation and breakdown of the DSB. Since this approach was not designed for Colombia, it is necessary to integrate certain characteristics, such as economic dependence, armed conflict, and drug trafficking. This paper presents the first theoretical adaptation of the neorealist approach for a Latin American country. This extended theoretical framework evinces the role of crime and violence in providing political stability to an accumulation regime that satisfies the demands of a narrow DSB.

The Great Recession (2008-2013) worsened the labor market position of young Spaniards. despite governments launched labor market reforms in 2010 y 2012 to improve labor stability, permanent employment accounted for only 10 percent of total new contracts. This paper tries to disentangle which factors are hindering the promotion of open-ended contracts to stabilize Spanish young workers into permanent employment. These analysis use panel data from the MCVL (Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales). The results indicate that, although having an open-ended contract increases the probability of being employed after two years, only 50 percent of these initial contracts survive. The structure of labor demand explains this instability.

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper revisits the question of whether NAFTA contributed to the productivity convergence between Mexico and the US. It introduces improved procedures for generating total factor productivity (TFP) data and applies new and more appropriate econometric methods. With these refinements, the paper provides some counter-evidence to the previous literature's findings of technology convergence toward a smaller gap level and NAFTA's positive effect on it. Our main result suggests an increasing TFP gap level, while some robustness checks, although not documenting increasing gaps, weaken the claim of the previous literature. The paper also applies a difference-in-difference approach and finds no evidence of sizeable effects of NAFTA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyzes the evolution of fear of floating (FOF) and its effect on output in Chile, Colombia and Mexico. It shows that there has been a gradual rise in exchange-rate volatility as the period of floating lengthens in each country. The paper analyzes the implications of this evolution for the behavior of output. It finds that the reduction of FOF has tended to decrease output volatility in Chile. However, the opposite phenomenon has happened in Mexico, while the results for Colombia are ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first part of this paper compares the volume and scientific productivity of Business Administration and Economics in Chile with the rest of scientific disciplines at the national and international levels. Given that scientific productivity is heterogeneous among different disciplines, the comparisons utilize an indicator that measures their impact relative to the world in the same field. The second part of the paper compares the amounts of public resources allocated to research in the different fields and discusses their relative efficiency in Chile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an empirical assessment on the impact of air pollution, specifically the bad scents produced by heavy industries and industries associated to the production of fish flour on the population's economic welfare of Concepción-Talcahuano, Chile. The paper applies an indirect method of environmental valuation known as the model of hedonics prices (Rosen, 1974). This approach has been broadly used in urban and environmental economics. Tile results from this paper reveal that there is a negative effect from bad scents on the price of housing and goes further by carrying out an exercise on the economic effect in a representative housing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convergence tests implicitly test the unit root hypothesis for per capita income. Although the statistics do not have critical values under the null hypothesis most papers on this subject use them, with the corresponding problems for inference. This paper determines the existence of convergence in GDP levels and income across the regions of Chile using the traditional tests and also recent unit root tests for panel data that allow for correct inferences. We also analyze convergence in dispersion, evaluating the presence of asymmetries or the formation of regional "clubs" using nonparametric tests. Our main conclusions are: (1) the evidence supports the hypothesis of absolute β convergence in both per capita GDP and income; (2) the convergence rate is higher for income than for GDP; (3) the conditional convergence rate increases when we control for the share of mining on the regional productive structure; (4) the data do not support the existence of convergence clubs; and (5) there is no clear evidence of G convergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chile has exhibited sharp cyclical and trend variation in its GDP and TFP growth rates during the last half century. This paper presents new estimates of the sources of Chile's growth and new measures for factor inputs and TFP during 1960-2005. Capital series are adjusted by utilization and labor employment series by hours worked and labor quality measures. Using a Cobb-Douglas function, the paper presents eight series for TFP based on alternative combinations of input measures. Three alternative cyclical measures for GDP suggest that the full period can be divided into three sub-periods of similar length, with similar cyclical features, and that coincide closely with distinct historical eras: 1960-1973, 1974-1989, and 1990-2005. Across the latter time spans, a negative relation between the first and second moments of GDP growth is confirmed, consistent with international experience. This paper also reports econometric evidence on the behavior of Chile's TFP during 1960-2005. TFP dynamics are shaped by cyclical variables (the terms of trade and real exchange rate undervaluation) and structural policy variables (macroeconomic stabilization and microeconomic reform progress), as well as positive interaction effects between macro performance and micro policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chile's average per capita CDP growth of 4.1% during 1991-2005 was significantly higher than average world growth during the same period and was a strong break from its own past. How much of Chile's recent growth is trend growth and how much is cyclical, influenced largely by external conditions? Which are the main determinants of Chile's long-term growth and cyclical fluctuations, according to the recent empirical literature? Which are the country's main growth strengths and weaknesses, and, based on the latter, which are the policy reforms advocated by recent technical studies and campaign proposals? This review article addresses the latter questions, starting with the facts about Chile's average growth and growth volatility at the aggregate, regional, and economic-sector level. Then the paper surveys trend growth studies for Chile that range from decomposition by sources of growth to econometric and simulation studies of deep growth determinants, based on international panel-data and national time-series evidence, and on research focused on individual reforms. Studies on short-term output fluctuations and cyclical recoveries in Chile, also comprising cross-country and national time-series evidence, are presented next. This issue of Cuadernos publishes six new, relevant research papers on Chile's growth, which are briefly introduced. Then the paper reviews selectively growthenhancing policy proposals that have been put forward by academic authors, international organizations, and presidential candidates in their 2005 campaign programs. An epilogue with brief thoughts about Chile's growth potential and policy reform challenges closes the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I discuss and develop measures of upstreamness and downstreamness to describe the position of countries and sectors in global value chains. Both measures are defined as the distance between exports and either final demand (upstreamness) or primary factors (downstreamness). When added together, they create a single measure of chain length, and reveal the position of the chain in international trade. I show the usefulness of these measures for highlighting aspects of international participation in value chains that cannot be deduced from measures developed previously. In particular, the measures proposed here better describe the specialization of countries along value chains.

The aim of this paper is to assess the stability of the impacts of real exchange rate undervaluation and domestic technological capabilities on growth across development levels. Panel regressions with development-level interactions are used to test the stability of these variables’ impact on growth. The results show that real undervaluation is a driver of growth across all development levels, once technological capabilities are accounted for; however, it is more important for developing and developed countries than for emerging countries.

The aim of this paper is to verify whether Peru has suffered from Dutch disease. To do this, a VARX model with monthly data from 2003 to 2020 is used to analyze whether the mining boom prices of the 2000s and 2010s have had a negative impact on the real sector, especially on non-primary manufacturing. Results show that a real exchange rate shock explains 8.2% of the variation in non-primary manufacturing. Even though the effect is significant, it is relatively small, and this is due to the Peruvian Central Bank intervening to reduce exchange rate volatility

This paper studies the effects of fixed-term contracts on workers. Specifically, the paper analyzes their impact on wages and on satisfaction levels. Regulations governing fixed-term and indefinite contracts in Colombia and the main labor reforms related to these two types of contract are analyzed. Women, young and low-educated workers, who work in small firms, in the private sector and in construction or manufacturing are most likely to have fixed-term contracts. In terms of wages, we found a significant raw and adjusted wage gap against workers with fixed-term contracts. Finally, we found, as expected, evidence that fixed-term contracts reduce the level of worker satisfaction.

This paper studies the effect of economic instability, income inequality and openness in the transition to different growth regimes for 18 Latin American countries during the 1980-2014 period. The study is carried out determining three different levels: low, middle and high economic growth. The countries are categorised according to the method of k-median clustering. We use panel data estimation applying random effects model and ordered logit. The results indicate that instability and inequality negatively affect the economic performance of the region, while openness is not a significant factor in explaining economic growth.

There are controversies regarding the applicability of Modern Money Theory (MMT) to emerging countries. In this paper, we shed light on this debate by analyzing the monetary sovereignty and fiscal policy regime in Brazil from 1999 to 2019. An empirical assessment shows the government has a considerable ‘degree’ of monetary sovereignty. However, fiscal rules imposed many restrictions on the State’s capacity to spend, subordinating fiscal policy to austerity. As there are no major macroeconomic constraints to Brazilian monetary sovereignty, it is necessary to change fiscal rules to reorient fiscal policy towards full employment in line with MMT prescriptions.

En este artículo formulo una relación teórica de fundamento microeconómico entre un Banco privado monopólico y la tasa óptima de inflación. La relación propuesta es la base para establecer una condición suficiente para la independencia de la Banca Central. La parte central del artículo lo consti tuye un modelo que expone las condiciones que se requieren para igualar las tasas óptimas, social y privada, de la inflación. A pesar de la sencillez del argumento, se pueden deducir algunas proposiciones de "Economía Constitucional".In this paper I propose a microeconomic based theoretical relation between a private monopolist bank and the optimal intlation rateo The proposed relation is the basis to establish a sutficient condition for the central bank independence. The core of this paper is a model showing the conditions required to equalize the optimal social and private rates of inflation. Notwithstanding the very simple nature of the argument, we can deduce from it some propositions of "Constitutional Economics".

El artículo hace un breve análisis de los flujos de capital hacia América Latina durante el último lustro, atraídos por economías menos intervenidas por el Estado, más abiertas al comercio internacional, más estables y equilibradas en sus variables macroeconómicas fundamentales. Seguidamente se examina la economía colombiana en los aspectos de crecimiento, inflación, agregados externos, monetarios y fiscales para concluir la apreciación del peso causada por la repatriación de capitales y las expectativas sobre una nueva bonanza petrolera hacen más difícil el desarrollo de la producción de bienes transables en el país.This paper analyses briefly capital inflows in Latin America duringthe last five years which were attracted by less state intervention,more openness to international trade and more stable economies in their macro variables.Next, the paper examines the Colombian economy in themes such asgrowth, inflation, external and fiscal balances, to conclude that the appreciation of the peso, caused by the capital inflow and the expectations of a new oil boom, makes it more difficult to developthe development of tradable within the country.

Currie, Lauchlin, " The Theory of Growth", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. XIII, numbers 18-19, Bogota, 1993, pp. 377-390. This paper is an attempt to develop an hypothesis on what Lucas has called the "mechanics" of growth. It is largely an endogenous theory, modelled on Allyn Young's famous paper, but also attempts to incorporate the impact of exogenous phenomena on growth. It treats business investment as following rather than as a leading sector. If valici, the hypothesis has important implications for both theory and policy.Currie, Lauchlin, "La teoría del crecimiento", Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. XIII, números 18-19, Bogotá, 1993, pp. 377-390. Con este artículo se pretende desarrollar una hipótesis con base en la cual Lucas se refirió al "mecanismo" del crecimiento. Esta es una vasta teoría endógena del crecimiento, cuyos esbozos originales se encuentran en los famosos trabajos de Allyn Young, pero que a la vez se propone incorporar el impacto de los fenómenos exógenos sobre el crecimiento. La teoría trata de la inversión comercial como un resultado más que como un sector líder. De ser válida esta hipótesis, sus implicaciones serán importantes tanto para la teoría como para la política económica.

The economic discipline is characterised by hierarchical dualisms. This paper examines formal/informal and productive/reproductive binary categories by means of a dialogue between the social reproduction theory and the popular economy. A starting point is the wealth of feminist contributions that highlight both reproduction and work as the heart of socioeconomic phenomena. Based on formalization processes in Latin America, the article explores how public policy interventions focus on the productive sphere. However, upon closer examination, these policies seem to neglect reproductive activities, as well as the demands of popular sectors. We argue that the contributions of feminism are necessary to broaden the economic field.

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Cuadernos de Economia is the property of Universidad Catolica del Uruguay Damaso Antonio Larranaga and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper uses an intertemporal model of public finances to show that political instability can cause taxes to be tilted to the future, resulting in a fiscal deficit that is suboptimal and only weakly sustainable (in the sense of Quintos). This occurs because political instability gives the government an incentive to implement a myopic fiscal policy in order to increase its chances of remaining in office. The government achieves this by delaying taxes (or advancing spending) in order to buy political support, which in turn causes an upward trend in the deficit process and a financial crisis. Using annual data for Chile for the 1833-1999 period, we present statistical test results that support the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on women's participation in the Chilean labor market at a regional level. Traditional methods use region-by-region analyses based on assumptions that perturbances are uncorrelated across regions and, most often, that they share identical determinants. Our research shows that both assumptions are inadequate for describing the data. We thus propose a full-information estimator based on a combination of seemingly unrelated regressions (SURE) and Logit techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the causes of the unusual drop in electricity consumption in households in Chile during 2008. Changes in income, the price of energy and the price of the substitute explain 8% of the actual drop in consumption. Over 50% of the fall is explained by two of the measures taken by the government: the energy-saving campaign and the planned reduction in the nominal voltage. Other measures included electricity saving rebates and changing the daylight saving time. Had the authority not taken these measures the price of electricity would have had to rise 15% more to induce a similar reduction of household's consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the survey analysis, the missing data problem can be managed by using Multiple Imputation (MI) methods. In this paper we show the empirical application of MI methods to the financial variables included in Chile's Social Protection Survey 2004. Based on a brief review of MI methods we conclude that Multivariate Normal one is more appropriate for our case. In addition, we consider two empirical adjustments: (1) use of the variables in their logistic versions, and (2) implementation of the method by groups of individuals. Our results show that both adjustments improves the performance of the MI method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the Additional Worker Effect in Argentina. We conclude that such effect exists, that it is large and that it is highly persistent even when using a wide array of controls in the regressions. It is also observed that spouses of working heads who become unemployed return to formal or informal employment with more intensity. We do not find evidence that impacts on spouse unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic policies implemented in the U.S. economy and other industrial nations during the years preceding the recent financial crisis have been strongly criticized for being too "liberal" regarding the functioning and regulation of markets. There are also those who question the vision and responsibility of the regulatory bodies. Furthermore, the crisis triggered criticism from some economists--led by Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman--with respect to the research agenda followed in the field of macroeconomics during the past thirty years. Specifically, these critics affirm that the theories and models based on rational expectations were incapable of both predicting the crisis and offering solutions to it. This paper questions the above charges. It mentions that (based on the same theoretical approaches that are now being criticized) several articles have alerted about the risks that were brewing in the U.S. economy. If there is something to criticize, it would be the models based on the New Keynesian Synthesis which, just as some decades ago, largely trusted that the economic cycle could be tackled using simple rules of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current global recession has cast doubts about the work of macroeconomists, the usefulness of their theories and their capacity to anticipate and deal with crises. This paper discusses that, while incapable of dealing with all the complexities of the real world, models do help to interpret the economic reality and propose economic policy recommendations. It also claims that, although crises are unpredictable, it is necessary to continue searching for early warnings and policies to try to prevent them and mitigate their propagation and amplification. Finally, it emphasizes that, although the initial shock of the current crisis was similar to the one of the Great Depression, its subsequent development has been essentially different, in particular in emerging economies. This proves that the economies are much stranger, and the policies applied have gone in the proper direction, which has benefited from important practical lessons and advances in economic research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the dynamics of the monetary policy decisions enacted by the Central Bank of Colombia and the transmission to other interest rates, in order to identify the effectiveness and backwardness of such monetary policy measures. Based on a theoretical model, a VECX-MGARCH model is used to analyze the interactions among different interest rates and model the relationship between the volatilities of the endogenous variables of the model. Impulse-response functions suggest that the effect of a monetary shock on interest rates closely follow the objectives set by the Central Bank, both in sign and magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper tests whether ex ante deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity correspond to default risk premium. Using an automated model selection criteria and data for Brazil (from november 2001 until december 2007), we found that deviations are correlated with a measure of risk (the EMBI+ ). There is also evidence that these deviations can be explained and predicted by a set of fundamentals (such as the current account deficit as a percentage of the GDP and domestic inflation for example). Insofar as some of these variables can be controlled by the government, the results suggest that economic policy is able to decrease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]