1. Modelled impacts of extreme heat and drought on maize yield in South Africa
- Author
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Robert Mangani, Eyob Habte Tesfamariam, Gianni Bellocchi, Abubeker Hassen, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Pretoria (UPSpace), Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), University of Pretoria [South Africa], and European Project: 613817,EC:FP7:KBBE,FP7-KBBE-2013-7-single-stage,MODEXTREME(2013)
- Subjects
systèmes de culture ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,European community ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Yield (finance) ,Climate change ,Plant Science ,Biology ,indice de récolte ,agriculture pluviale ,01 natural sciences ,modélisation des cultures ,Extreme heat ,Rainfed agriculture ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,2. Zero hunger ,événements extrêmes ,business.industry ,Crop yield ,Simulation modeling ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,15. Life on land ,sécurité alimentaire ,13. Climate action ,Agriculture ,Climatology ,040103 agronomy & agriculture ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,business ,Agronomy and Crop Science - Abstract
International audience; This study assessed two versions of the crop model CropSyst (i.e. EMS, existing; MMS, modified) for their ability to simulate maize (Zea mays L.) yield in South Africa. MMS algorithms explicitly account for the impact of extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, cold shocks, frost) on leaf development and yield formation. The case study of this research was at an experimental station near Johannesburg where both versions of the model were calibrated and validated by using field data collected from 2004 to 2008. The comparison of EMS and MMS showed considerable difference between the two model versions during extreme drought and heat events. MMS improved grain-yield prediction by similar to 30% compared with EMS, demonstrating a better ability to capture the behaviour of stressed crops under a range of conditions. MMS also showed a greater variability in response when both versions were forced with scenarios of projected climate change, with increased severity of drought and increased temperature conditions at the horizons 2030 and 2050, which could drive decreased maize yield. Yield was even lower with MMS (8 v. 11 t ha(-1) for EMS) at the horizon 2050, relative to the baseline scenario (similar to 13 t ha(-1) at the horizon 2000). Modelling solutions accounting for the impact of extreme weather events can be seen as a promising tool for supporting agricultural management strategies and policy decisions in South Africa and globally.
- Published
- 2018