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IMPORTANCE:. Multistate models yield high-fidelity analyses of the dynamic state transition and temporal dimensions of a clinical condition’s natural history, offering superiority over aggregate modeling techniques for addressing these types of problems. OBJECTIVES:. To demonstrate the utility of these models in critical care, we examined acute kidney injury (AKI) development, progression, and outcomes in COVID-19 critical illness through multistate analyses. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:. Retrospective cohort study at an urban tertiary-care academic hospital in the United States. All patients greater than or equal to 18 years in an ICU with COVID-19 in 2020, excluding patients with preexisting end-stage renal disease. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:. Using electronic health record data, we determined AKI presence/stage in discrete 12-hour time windows and fit multistate models to determine longitudinal transitions and outcomes. RESULTS:. Of 367 encounters, 241 (66%) experienced AKI (maximal stages: 88 stage-1, 49 stage-2, 104 stage-3 AKI [51 received renal replacement therapy (RRT), 53 did not]). Patients receiving RRT overwhelmingly received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (n = 60, 95%) compared with the AKI-without-RRT (n = 98, 53%) and no-AKI groups (n = 39, 32%; p < 0.001), with similar mortality patterns (RRT: n = 36, 57%; AKI: n = 74, 40%; non-AKI: n = 23, 19%; p < 0.001). After 24 hours in the ICU, almost half the cohort had AKI (44.9%; 95% CI, 41.6–48.2%). At 7 days after stage-1 AKI, 74.0% (63.6–84.4) were AKI-free or discharged. By contrast, fewer patients experiencing stage-3 AKI were recovered (30.0% [24.1–35.8%]) or discharged (7.9% [5.2–10.7%]) after 7 days. Early AKI occurred with similar frequency in patients receiving and not receiving IMV: after 24 hours in the ICU, 20.9% of patients (18.3–23.6%) had AKI and IMV, while 23.4% (20.6–26.2%) had AKI without IMV. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:. In a multistate analysis of critically ill patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred early and heterogeneously in the course of critical illness. Multistate methods are useful and underused in ICU care delivery science as tools for understanding trajectories, prognoses, and resource needs.

OBJECTIVES:. Unbiased global metabolomic profiling has not been used to identify distinct subclasses in patients with early sepsis and sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome. In this study, we examined whether the plasma metabolome reflects systemic illness in early sepsis and in acute respiratory distress syndrome. DESIGN:. Plasma metabolites were measured in subjects with early sepsis. SETTING:. Patients were admitted from the emergency department to the ICU in a plasma sample collected within 24 hours of ICU admission. Metabolic profiling of 970 metabolites was performed by Metabolon (Durham, NC). Hierarchical clustering and partial least squares discriminant clustering were used to identify distinct clusters among patients with early sepsis and sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS:. None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:. Among critically ill patients with early sepsis (n = 197), three metabolically distinct subgroups were identified, with metabolic subtype driven by plasma lipids. Group 1, with 45 subjects (23% of cohort), had increased 60-day mortality (odds ratio, 2; 95% CI, 0.99–4.0; p = 0.04 for group 1 vs all others). This group also had higher rates of vasopressor-dependent shock, acute kidney injury, and met Berlin acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria more often (all p < 0.05). Conversely, metabolic group 3, with 76 subjects (39% of cohort), had the lowest risk of 60-day mortality (odds ratio, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.86; p = 0.01) and lower rates of organ dysfunction as reflected in a lower Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (p < 0.001). In contrast, global metabolomic profiling did not separate patient with early sepsis with moderate-to-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (n = 78) from those with sepsis without acute respiratory distress syndrome (n = 75). CONCLUSIONS:. Plasma metabolomic profiling in patients with early sepsis identified three metabolically distinct groups that were characterized by different plasma lipid profiles, distinct clinical phenotypes, and 60-day mortality. Plasma metabolites did not distinguish patients with early sepsis who developed acute respiratory distress syndrome from those who did not.