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Background Enrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors. Methods In a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies. Measurements and main results An admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor. Conclusions Thresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials.

Background Necroptosis, a form of programmed cell death mediated by receptor interacting serine/threonine-protein kinase-3 (RIPK3), is implicated in murine models of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We hypothesized that plasma RIPK3 concentrations in sepsis and trauma would be associated with ARDS development and that plasma RIPK3 would reflect changes in lung tissue RIPK3 in a murine model of systemic inflammation. Methods We utilized prospective cohort studies of critically ill sepsis (n = 120) and trauma (n = 180) patients and measured plasma RIPK3 at presentation and 48 h. Patients were followed for 6 days for ARDS by the Berlin definition. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association of plasma RIPK3 with ARDS in each cohort, adjusting for confounders. In mice, we determined whether plasma and lung tissue RIPK3 levels rise concomitantly 4 h after injection with lipopolysaccharide and ZVAD-FMK, an apoptosis inhibitor. Results The change in plasma RIPK3 from presentation to 48 h (ΔRIPK3) was associated with ARDS in sepsis (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03–1.63, per ½ standard deviation) and trauma (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.33–2.40). This association was not evident for presentation RIPK3 levels. Secondary analyses showed similar findings for the association of ΔRIPK3 with acute kidney injury and 30-day mortality. Mice injected with lipopolysaccharide and ZVAD-FMK had significantly higher plasma (p

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AKI is highly heterogeneous, with variable links to poor outcomes. Current approaches to classify AKI severity and identify patients at highest risk for poor outcomes focus on the maximum change in serum creatinine (SCr) values. However, these scores are hampered by the need for a reliable baseline SCr value and the absence of a component differentiating transient from persistent rises in SCr. We hypothesized that identification of resolving or nonresolving AKI subphenotypes based on the early trajectory of SCr values in the ICU would better differentiate patients at risk of hospital mortality. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of two prospective studies of ICU patients admitted to a trauma ICU (group 1; n = 1914) or general medical-surgical ICUs (group 2; n = 1867). In group 1, we tested definitions for resolving and nonresolving AKI subphenotypes and selected the definitions resulting in subphenotypes with the greatest separation in risk of death relative to non-AKI controls. We applied this definition to group 2 and tested whether the subphenotypes were independently associated with hospital mortality after adjustment for AKI severity. Results AKI occurred in 46% and 69% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively. In group 1, a resolving AKI subphenotype (defined as a decrease in SCr of 0.3 mg/dl or 25% from maximum in the first 72 h of study enrollment) was associated with a low risk of death. A nonresolving AKI subphenotype (defined as all AKI cases not meeting the “resolving” definition) was associated with a high risk of death. In group 2, the resolving AKI subphenotype was not associated with increased mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.86, 95% CI 0.63–1.17), whereas the nonresolving AKI subphenotype was associated with higher mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15–2.44) even after adjustment for AKI severity stage. Conclusions The trajectory of SCr levels identifies AKI subphenotypes with different risks for death, even among AKI cases of similar severity. These AKI subphenotypes might better define the patients at risk for poor outcomes who might benefit from novel interventions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-016-1546-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Immunocompromised patients who develop sepsis while neutropenic are at high risk for morbidity and mortality; however, it is unknown if neutropenic sepsis is associated with distinct clinical and biological characteristics. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit of an academic medical center with severe sepsis. Patients were followed for the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury (AKI), and mortality. Plasma proteins, representing the host inflammatory response, anti-inflammatory response, and endothelial leak were measured in 30 % of subjects. Clinical characteristics and plasma protein concentrations of patients with neutropenia at enrollment were compared to patients without neutropenia. Results Of 797 subjects enrolled, 103 (13 %) were neutropenic at ICU admission. The neutropenic subjects were more often in shock, admitted from the hospital ward, had higher APACHE III scores, and more likely bacteremic. Neutropenia was an independent risk factor for AKI (RR 1.28; 95 % CI 1.04, 1.57; p = 0.03), but not ARDS (RR 0.90; 95 % CI 0.70, 1.17; p = 0.42) or 30-day mortality (RR 1.05; 95 % CI 0.85, 1.31; p = 0.65). Neutropenic subjects had higher plasma interleukin (IL)-6 (457 vs. 249 pg/ml; p = 0.03), IL-8 (581 vs. 94 pg/ml; p

Background Obesity is associated with the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in at-risk patients. Low plasma levels of adiponectin, a circulating hormone-like molecule, have been implicated as a possible mechanism for this association. The objective of this study was to determine the association of plasma adiponectin level at ICU admission with ARDS and 30-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Methods This is a prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the medical ICU at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania. Plasma adiponectin was measured at the time of ICU admission. ARDS was defined by Berlin criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association of plasma adiponectin with the development of ARDS and mortality at 30 days. Results The study included 164 patients. The incidence of ARDS within 5 days of admission was 45 %. The median initial plasma adiponectin level was 7.62 mcg/ml (IQR: 3.87, 14.90) in those without ARDS compared to 8.93 mcg/ml (IQR: 4.60, 18.85) in those developing ARDS. The adjusted odds ratio for ARDS associated with each 5 mcg increase in adiponectin was 1.12 (95 % CI 1.01, 1.25), p-value 0.025). A total of 82 patients (51 %) of the cohort died within 30 days of ICU admission. There was a statistically significant association between adiponectin and mortality in the unadjusted model (OR 1.11, 95 % CI 1.00, 1.23, p-value 0.04) that was no longer significant after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions In this study, low levels of adiponectin were not associated with an increased risk of ARDS in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. This argues against low levels of adiponectin as a mechanism explaining the association of obesity with ARDS. At present, it is unclear whether circulating adiponectin is involved in the pathogenesis of ARDS or simply represents an epiphenomenon of other unknown functions of adipose tissue or metabolic alterations in sepsis.

Critical care physicians often find themselves prognosticating for their patients, attempting to predict patient survival as well as disability. In the case of neurologic injury, this can be especially difficult. A frequent cause of coma in the intensive care unit is resuscitation following cardiac arrest, for which mortality and severe neurologic disability remain high. Recent studies of the clinical examination, of serum markers such as neuron-specific enolase, and of somatosensory evoked potentials allow accurate and specific prediction of which comatose patients are likely to suffer a poor outcome. Using these tools, practitioners can confidently educate the family for the majority of patients who will die or remain comatose at 1 month. Delirium is a less dramatic form of neurologic injury but, when sought, is strikingly prevalent. In addition, delirium in the intensive care unit is associated with increased mortality and poorer functional recovery, prompting investigation into preventative and therapeutic strategies to counter delirium. Finally, neurologic damage may persist long after the patient's recovery from critical illness, as is the case for cognitive dysfunction detected months and years after critical illness. Psychiatric impairment including depression or post-traumatic stress disorder may also arise. Mechanisms contributing to each of these entities are reviewed.