1. Delirium prediction in the intensive care unit: comparison of two delirium prediction models
- Author
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Annelies Wassenaar, Lisette Schoonhoven, John W. Devlin, Frank M. P. van Haren, Arjen J. C. Slooter, Philippe G. Jorens, Mathieu van der Jagt, Koen S. Simons, Ingrid Egerod, Lisa D. Burry, Albertus Beishuizen, Joaquim Matos, A. Rogier T. Donders, Peter Pickkers, and Mark van den Boogaard
- Subjects
Adult ,Clinical prediction ,Critical illness ,Delirium ,Intensive care unit ,Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid ,RC86-88.9 - Abstract
Abstract Background Accurate prediction of delirium in the intensive care unit (ICU) may facilitate efficient use of early preventive strategies and stratification of ICU patients by delirium risk in clinical research, but the optimal delirium prediction model to use is unclear. We compared the predictive performance and user convenience of the prediction model for delirium (PRE-DELIRIC) and early prediction model for delirium (E-PRE-DELIRIC) in ICU patients and determined the value of a two-stage calculation. Methods This 7-country, 11-hospital, prospective cohort study evaluated consecutive adults admitted to the ICU who could be reliably assessed for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU or the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist. The predictive performance of the models was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed graphically. A physician questionnaire evaluated user convenience. For the two-stage calculation we used E-PRE-DELIRIC immediately after ICU admission and updated the prediction using PRE-DELIRIC after 24 h. Results In total 2178 patients were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly greater for PRE-DELIRIC (0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.71–0.76)) compared to E-PRE-DELIRIC (0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.66–0.71)) (z score of − 2.73 (p
- Published
- 2018
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