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For moderate Shields number flows, the characteristic minimum sediment transport prediction error is estimated to be of the order of a factor of 2, even in stationary and horizontally homogeneous flows over a flat bottom. For oscillatory flows over ripples the same error is judged to be comparable to a factor of 4.In actual flows when the flow, sediments and bottom shape have to be predicted, moderate estimation errors for the near bottom turbulent stress results in characteristic minimum sediment transport error that is probably at least of the order of a factor of 10.The equations for the large-scale average flow require nonstandard parameterizations of the smaller scale ripple flow and boundary conditions. Only weakly founded closure relations are available for this. The error of the large-scale sediment transport can therefore not be quantified without extensive data comparisons. As extrapolated from the simpler estimates, it appears plausible that it could be significantly larger than a factor of 10.When the sediment transport variability is large, both in reality and in models, many models can probably be adjusted to fit the few data available. This may not be relevant for judging the prediction accuracy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A process-based sediment transport model is presented that combines the knowledge of sediment transport in rivers and estuaries with the understanding of physical processes specific for the shelf seas. Due to formation of bottom Ekman spiral, the near-bottom current and hence the sediment transport deviate from the direction of surface current. The model takes into account velocity veering induced by Ekman spiral and estimates both direction and rate of transport of suspended particulate matter (SPM) generated by a steady or slowly varying current, through suspension, relocation and deposition of sediment in a shallow sea. The model uses a combination of analytical and numerical methods: analytical integration, in the vertical, and numerical integration, in the horizontal. The model predicts also vertical erosion/deposition fluxes at the seabed. The deviation angles and other parameters of SPM transport are computed for a range of water depths 5–50 m, particle settling velocities 0.1–6 cm/s, and current speeds 0.4–1.2 m/s. The model converges automatically to traditional engineering-style formulations, in extreme case of strong current in very shallow water, where velocity veering is of minor importance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]