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Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the competitiveness of Russian regional medium-sized oil complexes with relatively small fossil oil reserves. Taking into account the urgency for competitiveness, the authors have developed a specific assessment methodology and competitive development strategy that could be implemented within the framework of a scenario approach. Design/methodology/approach – The suggested methodology for assessing the competitiveness of regional production complexes is based on the pattern method. Validation is provided for a modular structure and an approach to constructing indices of competitiveness of production complexes. A system of competitiveness indicators has been devised in relation to regional oil complexes. Findings – The case study of the oil complex of the Republic of Udmurtia has yielded competitiveness assessment forecast for a variety of development scenarios up until 2025. A methodology of competitiveness assessment is proposed as a result of the analysis of the two cases. Research limitations/implications – This analysis is based on the oil complex in Udmurtia, Russia. The main limitation of the research scope is the extent and nature of the industrial complex. The proposed design can be used for large industrial complexes operating in the field of industrial production. It needs to be extended to more clusters, more industries and other countries’ settings for the sake of comparison and generalization. Practical implications – The practical effects of the study suggest a set of strategic development tools of assessment of the dynamics of industrial complexes’ development, identification of competitive advantage and “bottlenecks” and definition of the objectives and programs of their long-term development and justification of policies and programs of perspective development. Originality/value – This paper reveals specific features of oil complexes’ competitiveness, which has seldom been investigated both theoretically and empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]