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Abstract Sandy beaches in Southern California are experiencing rising coastal erosion due to changes in precipitation patterns and urban growth. As a result, beach nourishment is necessary for mitigation. In our study, we forecast the rates of shoreline retreat and the required volumes of sand nourishment to mitigate it for the coming decades. We employ photogrammetric multi-decadal shoreline positioning and Digital Shoreline Analysis System methods to measure and predict the coastal evolution of the Gulf of Santa Catalina in Southern California. This region is hypothesized to be globally representative of other semi-arid sandy coasts facing similar hydroclimatic and anthropogenic challenges. Our findings indicate that Southern California’s shoreline retreat rates for sandy beaches will increase from the present average value of ~−1.45 to −2.12 meters per year in 2050 and to −3.18 meters per year in 2100. Consequently, the annual volume of sand required for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, increasing from the present-day amount of ~1223 to ~3669 cubic meters per year per kilometer. However, the associated cost for this nourishment will grow five times, exacerbating several coastal communities’ economic and logistical pressures. Similar trends are emerging globally, with semi-arid developing nations already grappling with coastal hazards and may struggle to manage the escalating costs of curbing beach nourishment.