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Beach loss is a growing global challenge that threatens the safety of coastal communities, the health of coastal ecosystems, recreational amenities, and regional economies dependent on tourism. Spatial gradients in longshore sediment transport, or divergence of drift (DoD), is a primary driver of beach width change over multi-annual time scales, but the response of any particular beach can be challenging to characterize and predict. Here we present a new method to characterize DoD using a non-uniform segmentation of the coastline informed by the spatial distribution of longshore transport potential, including the location of physical barriers identified using satellite imagery, and both maxima and reversals in longshore transport potential derived from nearshore wave data. The method demonstrates improved capacity to predict beach width trends at sandy beaches compared to methods that rely on a uniform segmentation of the coastline. In an application to southern California where satellite data documents two decades of beach width change, the non-uniform segmentation method correctly predicts the sign of beach trends at 93% of transects within a littoral cell and achieves a linear correlation between DoD and beach width trends exceeding 0.8. Moreover, we find that a minimum of five years of data are required to establish consistently strong correlations between DoD and beach width changes. Conversely, use of a uniform segmentation is shown to be unreliable for estimating beach width trends due to strong sensitivities to shoreline segment size. This work shows the potential to leverage nearshore wave data and satellite-based beach width data for improved characterization of shoreline dynamics relevant to beach erosion management. • A new shoreline modeling method is presented for estimating divergence of drift. • Segment boundaries are identified using longshore transport characteristics. • Strong correlations were shown between divergence of drift and beach width trends. • A littoral Peclet number characterizes the dominant longshore transport mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A moderate-size (344,000 m3) subaerial beach nourishment was placed in 2012 in front of flood-prone homes at Imperial Beach, California. The subaerially persistent coarser-than-native nourishment sand spread alongshore over a ∼ 4 km span. By winter 2018/19 subaerial sand volumes in front of the flood-prone homes were eroded to near pre-nourishment levels, while sand accumulated near a river mouth ∼ 1.5 km to the south. The observed alongshore patterns of post-nourishment erosion/accretion are consistent with the modeled convergence/divergence of alongshore currents driven by wave radiation stress S x y gradients associated with refraction over a relic cobble ebb shoal. The same alongshore patterns of subaerial erosion/accretion were observed in the 6 years preceding the nourishment, indicating a wave-driven erosion hotspot in front of the flood-prone homes, and an accretion hotspot near the region of river mouth migration. Over the 13-yr observation period, the river mouth migrated 600 m southward and closed in 2016, possibly owing to nourishment sand and El Niño intensified local drift convergence. The computationally efficient drift (radiation stress) gradient model uses simplified wave and surfzone dynamics, assumes proportionality between alongshore sediment transport and the radiation stress component S x y , but nevertheless captures the overall patterns of alongshore nourishment evolution and provides a framework to inform sand management. • The subaerial influence of relatively coarse beach nourishment sand spans 4 km of coast 6 years after placement. • Accretion and erosion hotspots are persistent, 6 years before and after nourishment. • A simple drift divergence model that captures refraction over an ebb shoal describes the alongshore variable sand volume trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]