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Storms and extremely energetic events may significantly impact the form and structure of beaches, and so cause erosive processes and coastal damages. Efficient management actions require an up-to-date and accurate knowledge of beach morphological changes, with the shoreline position being a good indicator of such changes. This work proposes the use of the open-source Shoreline Analysis and Extraction Tool (SAET) software for the definition of satellite-derived shorelines (SDSs) from L8 and Sentinel-2 imagery to reveal the shoreline position changes at the beaches of the Ebro Delta, NE Spain. Spatial-temporal models (STMs) of shoreline changes enable a characterisation of how the beaches responded to the storms of 2020. In conjunction with wave data, STMs enable an analysis of the erosive response to storm events, as well as a monitoring of subsequent beach recovery in the short and medium term (<1 year). Results show how Storm Gloria (January 2020, Hs max = 7.62 m) acted as a disruptive event and shifting point in the shoreline trend. As a response to that storm, major erosive processes occurred along the delta that caused an average shoreline retreat of 47 m. A progressive recovery during the spring and summer was mainly associated with periods of low wave energy. Nevertheless, by the end of the year a complete recovery had been achieved for about half of the coast, while the other half showed an average erosion of more than 10 m when compared to the pre-storm situation. Both the erosive and the recovery processes took place unevenly on different sections of the coast, probably dependent on factors such as the orientation of the beach and the pattern of longitudinal sediment transport along the coast. • Automatic shoreline extraction from Sentinel 2 and Landsat 8 imagery using SAET. • Pre and post-storm characterisation of SDS position in time and space using STMs. • Storm Gloria (January 2020) caused an unprecedented and heterogeneous impact on the Ebro Delta. • Slow recovery occurred in the months following the event conditioned by orientation and wave patterns. • About half of the delta showed a significant shoreline retreat by the end of 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sediment motion on rippled bed under wave action plays an important role in coastal landforms, but the application of traditional numerical model is limited by large computational work or bottom sediment condition due to unsteady effects. A single-phase model is proposed to maintain low computation and high accuracy for the vortex structure development and suspended sediment motion on vortex rippled bed in wave-induced oscillatory flow. The 2D bottom sediment condition takes into account the acceleration effect and asymmetric boundary layer development under nonlinear waves as well as the sediment phase-lag. The particle inertia and wake flow around sediment particle are considered in sediment turbulence, and the SST k - ω turbulence model which is suitable for inverse pressure gradient flow on rippled bed is selected to close the Reynolds stress. The single-phase model well predicts the velocity on vortex ripples, periodic concentration at fixed points and vertical distribution of averaged sediment concentration. The results show qualitative formation, development and ejection of vortex, and demonstrate quantitative development of vortex center, radius and strength in symmetric and asymmetric flows. In addition, the model well performs the development of sediment cloud referring to vortex structure. • Efficient numerical model is developed for oscillatory sediment transport on vortex ripple and sheet flow. • Bottom sediment condition performs acceleration effect, asymmetric boundary layer and phase-lag. • Particle inertia and wake flow around particle are considered in sediment turbulence. • SST k - ω turbulence model is applied for inverse pressure gradient flow on vortex ripple. • Results show quantitative development of vortex structure and associated sediment cloud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dune erosion during storm surges can lead to excessive damage to the dune system with devastating floods as a potential consequence. A risk assessment of areas protected by dunes can be facilitated by an understanding and description of the physical processes that take place. Field measurements, knowledge of underlying processes and numerical modelling have developed with time, which enabled a more comprehensive description and new predictive techniques. This review concerns dune erosion in the collision regime, and summarises relevant observations, describes underlying processes and explains existing models predicting dune erosion. Observations of dune erosion consist of field observations, laboratory experiments and manipulative field campaigns. The underlying physical processes that contribute to dune erosion are divided into processes that contribute to sediment transport due to hydrodynamic forcing, which occurs in the surf and swash zone, and sediment transport due to avalanching, which occurs in the swash zone, on the dune face and on the dune crest. The existing dune erosion models that are discussed here contain (empirical) equilibrium profile models and process-based models, which can both be a valuable tool for the risk assessment of storm surges. However, model uncertainties still remain, as specific processes are not yet fully understood and described. Examples are the influences of wave obliquity, sediment grain size, and vegetation on the dune face. By improving our knowledge through research and reducing these uncertainties, we can further improve our predictive models. This could eventually lead to more accurate predictions, more complete risk assessments, and sandy coastlines which are more resilient to excessive dune erosion and possible floods. • Reviews dune erosion during storm surges in the collision regime. • Summarises relevant field and laboratory observations • Summarises underlying hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes • Summarises existing dune erosion models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Mega nourishments are a novel approach to stimulating coastal safety and resilience. Mega nourishments are intended to spread along the coast on a decadal time scale by natural sediment transport processes with a minimum of intrusion into the natural coastal system. The supratidal morphodynamic behaviour of mega nourishments is not well understood due to complexities introduced by limitations in sediment availability to aeolian sediment transport. Consequently, the effectiveness of mega nourishments to stimulate coastal safety and to influence coastal landscape and habitat development remains unknown. In this paper we present a detailed 4-year hindcast of the morphological development of the Sand Motor mega nourishment in The Netherlands. We use the aeolian sediment transport and availability model AeoLiS that focuses specifically on the simulation of spatiotemporal variations in sediment availability. The model includes the recurrence relation between sediment availability and aeolian sediment transport through self-grading and beach armoring. We show that the model is able to reproduce multi-annual aeolian sediment transport rates in the Sand Motor domain in the four years after its construction. The RMSE is 3 ⋅ 10 4 m 3 (7% of the total sediment accumulation) and R 2 is 0.93 when comparing timeseries of total sediment accumulation in the dunes, dune lake and lagoon. The combination of spatial and temporal variations in aeolian sediment availability, due to the combined influence of soil moisture, sediment sorting and beach armoring, is essential for an accurate estimate of the total sedimentation volume. The simulated feedback between aeolian sediment availability and transport is required for accurately describing compartmentalization of the beach and locating the aeolian sediment source areas in the Sand Motor domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal dunes provide many ecosystem services including protection of infrastructure from wave overtopping and habitat for native species. Foredunes grow at different rates and assume different forms (i.e., short and wide to tall and narrow) depending on a range of factors including pre-existing beach and dune morphology, wind, wave, and water levels, sediment grain size, and vegetation characteristics, yet the relative importance of these factors on foredune growth is understudied. Here, we quantify foredune evolution (2016–2019) and explore the relative influence of a suite of metocean, sedimentary, and ecological factors for dune growth on three barrier islands in the U.S. North Carolina Outer Banks (Cape Lookout National Seashore). We incorporate observed and hindcast wind, wave, and water level data into the process-based, coupled beach-dune evolution model, Windsurf, to explore the relative contribution of factors likely to influence foredune growth at the annual timescale (2016–2017). Our cross-shore topographic profile observations show varied interannual foredune change rates and characteristics, including horizontal retreat and progradation at the dune toe and vertical erosion and accretion at the dune crest. Model results indicate that, of the factors explored, pre-existing morphology had the greatest influence on the type of foredune growth that occurred (i.e., incipient dune development, widening of the dune, and/or vertical accretion), which dramatically altered the final shape of the dune. Variations in wind and wave climates were associated with the relative contribution of marine- and aeolian-driven bed elevation changes and were particularly influential during storms. In addition, increases in the minimum elevation of vegetation on the dune profile (analogous to the cross-shore distance between the shoreline and established vegetation line, i.e., the vegetation limit, as coined by Duran and Moore, 2013) increased dune crest height and dune volume. Moreover, variations in the minimum vegetation elevation resulted in a larger range of dune crest elevations and dune volumes than differences in the median sand grain size. We suggest that insights into the relative influence of metocean, sedimentary, and ecological factors to dune growth can assist in the development of practical coastal management strategies. • Pre-existing beach-dune morphology had the largest influence on dune growth type. • Exposure to the dominant wave direction led to increased dune volume. • Higher minimum vegetation elevation and finer sand resulted in taller dunes. • Minimum vegetation elevation influenced dune growth more than sand grain size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zones are vulnerable to both erosion and flood risk, which can be assessed using coupled hydro-morphodynamic models. However, the use of such models as decision support tools suffers from a high degree of uncertainty, due to both incomplete knowledge and natural variability in the system. In this work, we show for the first time how the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) can be applied in hydro-morphodynamic coastal ocean modelling, here using the popular model XBeach, to quantify uncertainty by computing statistics of key output variables given uncertain input parameters. MLMC accelerates the Monte Carlo approach through the use of a hierarchy of models with different levels of resolution. Several theoretical and real-world coastal zone case studies are considered here, for which output variables that are key to the assessment of flood and erosion risk, such as wave run-up height and total eroded volume, are estimated. We show that MLMC can significantly reduce computational cost, resulting in speed up factors of 40 or greater compared to a standard Monte Carlo approach, whilst keeping the same level of accuracy. Furthermore, a sophisticated ensemble generating technique is used to estimate the cumulative distribution of output variables from the MLMC output. This allows for the probability of a variable exceeding a certain value to be estimated, such as the probability of a wave run-up height exceeding the height of a seawall. This is a valuable capability that can be used to inform decision-making under uncertainty. • First use of MLMC (multilevel Monte Carlo) with a coupled hydro-morphodynamic model. • Large drop in computational cost for same accuracy using MLMC instead of Monte Carlo. • Determine the distribution of variables of interest in coastal zone cases using MLMC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there have been many efforts in the literature to hindcast the patterns of longshore sediment transport (LST), they mainly disregarded uncertainty issues. Forcing datasets, wave transformation methods, and LST models are among the main sources of uncertainty in LST estimations. The combination of the aforementioned sources of uncertainty makes the estimation of LST patterns challenging for non-straight coastlines as the uncertainty ranges might vary from site to site. In this paper, a simple ensemble modeling framework was employed to investigate LST rate uncertainty at seven sites along a non-straight coastline (Gold Coast, Australia). The ensemble was formed by two different forcing datasets (i.e., integral parameters of total wave energy from two hindcast datasets of ERA5 and CAWCR), two different wave transformation methods (i.e., inclusion and exclusion of local wind effects), and eight LST models (i.e., bulk formulae and process-based models). Moreover, the relative importance of each source of uncertainty was ranked using the ANOVA-variance-based model. Finally, the weighted ensemble mean was used to investigate intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates. The results showed that the range of uncertainty of LST rates for open coasts of Gold Coast is much higher than that of semi-sheltered coasts. On annual scale, for open coasts, 40% to 50% of total uncertainty was due to the choice of wave transformation methods, while for semi-sheltered coasts, it was 20%–30%. Moreover, almost for all sites, 30% to 50% of total uncertainty was controlled by the choice of LST models and the interaction of wave transformation methods and LST models. Although the weighted ensemble mean could provide an estimate of LST patterns along the coast, addressing the residual uncertainties (arising from other sources, discussed at the end of this paper), in future works, would help increase the certainty of the estimations. • Forcing datasets, wave transformation methods, and sediment transport models are the main sources of LST uncertainty. • The effect of local wind on wave transformation is usually overlooked that can be a significant source of LST uncertainty. • Ensemble modeling enables modelers and coastal planners to capture a broader range of uncertainty in the estimation of LST patterns. • Uncertainty ranking reveals which source of uncertainty should be addressed more to yield reliable estimations for LST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate knowledge of the sediment budget of a coastal cell is necessary for coastal management and predicting long-term coastal change. An important component in the sediment budget of many wave-dominated embayed coastlines is the amount of sediment that bypasses rocky headlands, which present partial barriers to alongshore transport. As yet, there is no universal method for estimating bypass rates. Here we show that wave-forced bypassing of an isolated headland can be estimated using a parameterisation of wave conditions, shoreface slope, sediment size, headland toe-depth and cross-shore extent. XBeach was used to simulate instantaneous rates of alongshore flux off the apex of an idealised and isolated headland, with >1100 simulations, testing various wave and morphological factors. Key variables were headland cross-shore extent as the ratio of toe-depth to bed slope (X H = h toe /tanβ) and surfzone extent as a function breaking depth and slope (X s = h b /tanβ). The critical ratio controlling bypassing was found to be X H /X S (equivalent to h toe /h b , for an idealised headland). Bypass is predicted as: Q bypass = Q 0 f(X H /X S) ; where Q 0 , the alongshore transport rate immediately updrift of the headland, is based on an existing expression (Van Rijn, 2014) and f(X H /X S) is a negative exponential function. This formulation accurately replicated bypass rates modelled by XBeach, generally to within a factor of two. Headland shape was found to be a lower-order control on bypass and was excluded from the parameterisation. Preliminary analysis suggests the expression may also be applied to groynes, though more specific testing is required. Once adapted to time-varying wave and water levels, the expression succesfully predicted bypass rates for three observed headlands over a single event. Best results were obtained using measured toe-depth to parameterise headland morphometry. Further field data are required for robust calibration, in particular for large and complex headlands that vary substantially from the idealised model used for development. The bypass expression can be used to provide a first-pass estimate of wave-forced bypassing for a wide-range of headland types; this will be of use to coastal managers, scientists and engineers working on rocky and embayed coastlines. • First parametric formula to predict rates of sediment bypassing isolated headlands. • Developed using XBeach across a wide-range of wave and morphologic scenarios. • Critical ratio is headland extent/surfzone width (equal to toe-depth/breaking depth). • Successfully predicts observed bypassing for three headlands over a single event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of sea level rise (SLR) are relevant to the future evolution of coasts and estuaries. This study analyses the importance of different SLR trends on the morphological evolution of a mixed-energy fine-sediment coast (the Caofeidian Sea in Bohai Bay, China) using a validated numerical model. Results show that SLR produces spatially non-uniform relative morphodynamic responses, depending on the local coastline (uninterrupted or inlet-interrupted) and wave exposure. In the Caofeidian Sea, the uninterrupted coast is exposed to waves and tidal currents, and SLR reduces the accretion of tidal flats via heightening waves. On the inlet-interrupted coast, the morphological response to SLR is dominated by changes in tidal asymmetry and current velocity. In low SLR scenarios, the enhanced flood tidal asymmetry makes the system initially resilient to SLR. For high SLR scenarios, tidal sediment transport capacity is dampened by the reduction in current velocities, which accelerates the degradation of tidal flats along the inlet-interrupted coast. Differences among results with eight theoretical SLR trends show that the magnitude of SLR-induced morphological change is influenced by the target value (0.5 and 1.0 m) and rising mode (abrupt growth, linear growth, parabolic growth, and exponential growth) of the SLR. A newly-introduced parameter (equivalent SLR, E SLR), which reflects the time-weighted average value of an SLR trend for a period of time, shows a strong linear relationship with SLR-induced morphological change. Results suggest that the morphological response to other SLR scenarios for the Caofeidian Sea is expected to be interpolated from the E SLR ratios without performing extra time-consuming simulations. • SLR triggers erosion of tidal flats on the uninterrupted coast via heightening waves rather than enhancing currents. • Morphological response of inlet-interrupted coast is subject to net sediment flux controlled by tidal asymmetry and currents. • Morphodynamic modelling that neglects the SLR trends has a limited predictive capacity of SLR effects on the coasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]