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Although there have been many efforts in the literature to hindcast the patterns of longshore sediment transport (LST), they mainly disregarded uncertainty issues. Forcing datasets, wave transformation methods, and LST models are among the main sources of uncertainty in LST estimations. The combination of the aforementioned sources of uncertainty makes the estimation of LST patterns challenging for non-straight coastlines as the uncertainty ranges might vary from site to site. In this paper, a simple ensemble modeling framework was employed to investigate LST rate uncertainty at seven sites along a non-straight coastline (Gold Coast, Australia). The ensemble was formed by two different forcing datasets (i.e., integral parameters of total wave energy from two hindcast datasets of ERA5 and CAWCR), two different wave transformation methods (i.e., inclusion and exclusion of local wind effects), and eight LST models (i.e., bulk formulae and process-based models). Moreover, the relative importance of each source of uncertainty was ranked using the ANOVA-variance-based model. Finally, the weighted ensemble mean was used to investigate intra- and inter-annual variability of LST rates. The results showed that the range of uncertainty of LST rates for open coasts of Gold Coast is much higher than that of semi-sheltered coasts. On annual scale, for open coasts, 40% to 50% of total uncertainty was due to the choice of wave transformation methods, while for semi-sheltered coasts, it was 20%–30%. Moreover, almost for all sites, 30% to 50% of total uncertainty was controlled by the choice of LST models and the interaction of wave transformation methods and LST models. Although the weighted ensemble mean could provide an estimate of LST patterns along the coast, addressing the residual uncertainties (arising from other sources, discussed at the end of this paper), in future works, would help increase the certainty of the estimations. • Forcing datasets, wave transformation methods, and sediment transport models are the main sources of LST uncertainty. • The effect of local wind on wave transformation is usually overlooked that can be a significant source of LST uncertainty. • Ensemble modeling enables modelers and coastal planners to capture a broader range of uncertainty in the estimation of LST patterns. • Uncertainty ranking reveals which source of uncertainty should be addressed more to yield reliable estimations for LST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-purpose Artificial Reefs (MPARs) are structures that may provide aesthetically acceptable coastal protection and improve recreational outcomes. Twenty years after construction of the first MPAR, Narrowneck Reef on the Gold Coast of Australia, most of the available literature is still focused on the planning, design and construction of such structures and peer-reviewed publications on their post-construction monitoring, interaction with sediment transport and impacts on coastal morphology are lacking. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how does Narrowneck Reef influence the sediment transport, and morphological changes around the anthropogenic structure, two decades after construction. To do so, a combination of ten high spatial resolution topo-bathymetric surveys from the top of the dune to the 10 m depth captured over 21 months and a series of 60 simulations using a calibrated numerical model were used. Our results demonstrate that: although not expected during design or reported in similar structures, sand can bypass the MPAR around its offshore end; under oblique waves, the longshore currents are deflected as they pass the reef, resulting in a shadow zone on the downdrift side where sand deposits; the bar crest tends to be higher on the reef's updrift side compared to downdrift, indicating that the MPAR can act as a store for sediments, as initially designed. Furthermore, the MPAR can act to stabilise the bar as it moves onshore with a downdrift offset of the inner bar as a result of low oblique wave incidence. The results presented here demonstrate that the short-term response to the MPAR twenty years after construction is more closely related to the updrift build up of sand and the deflection of longshore currents as they encounter the reef than to the dissipation of wave energy. This is because MPARs are designed to dissipate just enough wave energy so that they can achieve their recreational goal (surfing). • Beach morphodynamic state and tide level influence sediment transport pathways. • Sand bypassing occurs mainly inshore of the structure. • Under large oblique waves, sand bypass can occur offshore of the structure. • Deflection of longshore currents influence morphological response to the reef. • Bar crest is usually higher on the reef's updrift side compared to downdrift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]