1. Validation of National Cardiovascular Data Registry risk models for mortality, bleeding and acute kidney injury in interventional cardiology at a German Heart Center
- Author
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Stefan Perings, T Krieger, Maximilian Brockmeyer, Yingfeng Lin, Selina Bader, Andrea Icks, Yvonne Heinen, Lucin Kosejian, C Parco, Georg Wolff, Malte Kelm, Julia Quade, Athanasios Karathanos, Volker Schulze, and Alexander Albert
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Time Factors ,Contrast Media ,Hemorrhage ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Coronary Angiography ,Radiography, Interventional ,Risk Assessment ,Decision Support Techniques ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ,Catheterization procedure ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Germany ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Myocardial infarction ,Hospital Mortality ,Adverse effect ,Non-ST Elevated Myocardial Infarction ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Interventional cardiology ,business.industry ,Cardiogenic shock ,Acute kidney injury ,Reproducibility of Results ,General Medicine ,Acute Kidney Injury ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Confidence interval ,Treatment Outcome ,Conventional PCI ,Cardiology ,ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction ,Female ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business - Abstract
The National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk scores for mortality, bleeding and acute kidney injury (AKI) are accurate outcome predictors of coronary catheterization procedures in North American populations. However, their application in German clinical practice remained elusive and we thus aimed to verify their use. NCDR scores for mortality, bleeding and AKI and corresponding clinical outcomes were retrospectively assessed in patients undergoing catheterization for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or for elective coronary procedures at a German Heart Center from 2014 to 2017. Risk model performance was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristic curves (discrimination) and graphical analysis/logistic regression (calibration). A total of 1637 patients were included, procedures were performed for STEMI (565 patients, 34.5%), NSTEMI (572 patients, 34.9%) and elective purposes (500 patients, 30.5%); 6% (13% of STEMI and 5% of NSTEMI patients) presented in cardiogenic shock and 3% with resuscitated cardiac arrest. Radial access was used in 38% of procedures and cross-over was necessary in 5%; PCI was performed in 60% of procedures. In-hospital mortality was 6.3% (STEMI 14.5%; NSTEMI 3.7%; elective 0%) and major bleedings occurred in 5.6% (STEMI 10.6%; NSTEMI 5.4%; elective 0.2%); AKI was detected in 18.1% of patients (STEMI 23.7%; NSTEMI 27.3%; elective 1.4%), amounting to KDIGO stage I/II/III in 11.5%/3.5%/3.2%. NCDR risk models discriminated very well for mortality [AUC 0.93 with 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91–0.95] and well for major bleeding (AUC 0.82, CI 0.78–0.86) and any AKI (AUC 0.83, CI 0.81–0.86). Discrimination in the subgroup of patients with PCI was comparable (mortality: AUC 0.90; major bleeding: AUC 0.78; any AKI: AUC 0.79). However, calibration showed considerable underestimation of mortality and AKI in high-risk patients, while major bleeding was consistently overestimated (Hosmer–Lemeshow p
- Published
- 2019