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Mutation-predicting models can be useful when deciding on the genetic testing of individuals at risk and in determining the cost effectiveness of screening strategies at the population level. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a newly developed genetic model that incorporates tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) information, called the AIFEG model, and in predicting the presence of mutations in MSH2 and MLH1 in probands with suspected hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer. The AIFEG model is based on published estimates of mutation frequencies and cancer penetrances in carriers and non-carriers and employs the program MLINK of the FASTLINK package to calculate the proband's carrier probability. Model performance is evaluated in a series of 219 families screened for mutations in both MSH2 and MLH1, in which 68 disease-causing mutations were identified. Predictions are first obtained using family history only and then converted into posterior probabilities using information on MSI. This improves predictions substantially. Using a probability threshold of 10% for mutation analysis, the AIFEG model applied to our series has 100% sensitivity and 71% specificity.

Constitutional chromosome deletions can predispose to the development of cancer with the phenotypic characteristics of inherited cancer syndromes, when the deleted region encompasses a tumour suppressor gene. Examples of such conditions are represented by the cytogenetic deletions associated with retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour and familial adenomatous polyposis. So far, no constitutional deletions involving the genes implicated in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) have been identified. This may be at least partially because of the lack of distinctive phenotypic manifestations in HNPCC. We describe the first case of a constitutional microdeletion associated with HNPCC. Suspicion of a microdeletion was prompted by the association of mental retardation, postnatal growth deficiency, minor congenital anomalies and early onset (37 years) sporadic colon cancer. The patient was found to harbour a microdeletion within chromosome 2p16-p21, including the MSH2 gene. Since there are very few reports of deletions of the 2p16-p21 region, our observation sets the grounds for the definition of a novel multiple congenital anomaly/mental retardation/cancer microdeletion syndrome.