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3. Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions.

Author

Mastrucci, Alessio, van Ruijven, Bas, Byers, Edward, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, and Pachauri, Shonali

Abstract

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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4. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C

Author

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Stehfest, Elke, den Elzen, Michel G J, Kram, Tom, van Vliet, Jasper, Deetman, Sebastiaan, Isaac, Morna, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, Hof, Andries, Beltran, Angelica Mendoza, Oostenrijk, Rineke, van Ruijven, Bas, OGKG - Sociaal-economische geschiedenis, Environmental Sciences, Sub IMW afd MNW 3e geldstroom, LS Economische Geschiedenis, OGKG - Sociaal-economische geschiedenis, Environmental Sciences, Sub IMW afd MNW 3e geldstroom, and LS Economische Geschiedenis

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Meteorology, Land use, Climate change, Energy consumption, Radiative forcing, Environmental economics, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Mean radiant temperature, Baseline (configuration management)
Abstract

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2. 6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2. 6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases. © 2011 The Author(s).

Published
2011

6. Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Author

Birkmann, Joern, primary, Cutter, Susan L., additional, Rothman, Dale S., additional, Welle, Torsten, additional, Garschagen, Matthias, additional, van Ruijven, Bas, additional, O’Neill, Brian, additional, Preston, Benjamin L., additional, Kienberger, Stefan, additional, Cardona, Omar D., additional, Siagian, Tiodora, additional, Hidayati, Deny, additional, Setiadi, Neysa, additional, Binder, Claudia R., additional, Hughes, Barry, additional, and Pulwarty, Roger, additional

Published
2013
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7. Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Author

van Ruijven, Bas J., primary, Levy, Marc A., additional, Agrawal, Arun, additional, Biermann, Frank, additional, Birkmann, Joern, additional, Carter, Timothy R., additional, Ebi, Kristie L., additional, Garschagen, Matthias, additional, Jones, Bryan, additional, Jones, Roger, additional, Kemp-Benedict, Eric, additional, Kok, Marcel, additional, Kok, Kasper, additional, Lemos, Maria Carmen, additional, Lucas, Paul L., additional, Orlove, Ben, additional, Pachauri, Shonali, additional, Parris, Tom M., additional, Patwardhan, Anand, additional, Petersen, Arthur, additional, Preston, Benjamin L., additional, Ribot, Jesse, additional, Rothman, Dale S., additional, and Schweizer, Vanessa J., additional

Published
2013
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