Search

This paper is among the first to report on the full integration of basin-scale models that include projections of the demand and supply of water and energy for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sector users. We link two widely used regional planning models that allow one to study the impact of rising climate variability on water and electricity use in Sacramento, California. Historic data combined with the current energy and water system configuration was used to assess the implications of changes in temperature and precipitation. Climate simulations suggest that electricity imports to the region would increase during hot dry spells, when regional power production is most constrained. In particular, regional imports of electricity would increase over 35 % in hot dry years, assuming a 4 °C increase in average temperature and a 25 % decrease in average precipitation.

Byline: David Yates (1), Hector Galbraith (2), D. Purkey (4), A. Huber-Lee (3), J. Sieber (4), J. West (5), S. Herrod-Julius (5), B. Joyce (4) Abstract: The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California's Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook's ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river's temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2degC, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4degC could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction. Author Affiliation: (1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA (2) Galbraith Environmental Sciences, 837 Camp Arden Rd., Dummerston, VT, 05301, USA (3) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA (4) Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, Medford, MA, USA (5) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA Article History: Registration Date: 03/04/2008 Received Date: 30/11/2005 Accepted Date: 20/02/2008 Online Date: 04/06/2008