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Snowdrifts on lake ice provide vital breeding habitats for the endangered Saimaa ringed seal. In this study, a lake ice model of Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS-Ice) was developed for improved estimation of ice and snow conditions in Lake Saimaa during the pupping season of the Saimaa ringed seal. The WSFS-Ice model is based on energy balance, enabling reliable estimation of the ice cover evolution in current and future climate. In addition, a simple snowdrift model was used to simulate formation of snowdrifts, which are essential for the seals breeding success in Lake Saimaa. The model was calibrated against ice thickness, ice type and snow depth measurements. According to our results based on climate scenarios with intermediate representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), the breeding habitat of the Saimaa ringed seal is significantly deteriorating during the twenty-first century. The mean depth of the snowdrifts is projected to decrease approximately to half from the 1981–2010 to 2070–99 period and at the same time the ice-covered period is reduced by one and a half months. During the mildest winters the ice cover is projected to melt even before the pupping season has ended. The results highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and active conservation measures to enhance seal population growth, enabling it to survive in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgent need for climate action and sustainable development has elevated the importance of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in climate finance. While PPPs are crucial for mobilizing resources for climate finance, the factors influencing the willingness of different stakeholders to participate in these partnerships are not well understood. This study employs a multifaceted analytical approach, integrating theoretical insights from Stakeholder Theory, Transaction Cost Economics, and Agency Theory. We conduct a Tobit regression analysis to investigate the determinants of willingness to participate in climate finance PPPs among three key stakeholder groups: Governors, Firms, and the Public. Using survey data collected from over 1600 participants in Vietnam's Mekong Delta, this research examines the influence of perceived benefits, perceptions of PPPs, the importance of climate finance, trust and transparency, and multilateral support on stakeholders' willingness to participate in PPPs for climate finance. The analysis reveals that the perceived benefits of PPPs and trust and transparency universally enhance the willingness to participate across all groups of stakeholders. However, the impact of positive perceptions of PPPs varies, playing a crucial role for firms and the public but not for governors. The study also highlights the significance of understanding and emphasizing the importance of climate finance, particularly when combined with trust and transparency, in encouraging stakeholder participation. Furthermore, by revealing the varied impacts of determinants across stakeholder groups, this research points to the necessity of adopting differentiated approaches to maximize participation in PPPs for climate finance, thereby supporting sustainable development and climate action goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change impacts increase, communicators must engage as many audiences as possible in climate action. One potentially underrated audience is video gamers. Two-thirds of Americans play video games, and video games are a potentially effective climate change communication tool. However, little research has examined whether video gamers have unique value as a target audience for climate communication, and if they do, what might be effective ways to reach them. To address this need, we use two surveys including self-identified video game players in the United States to measure their current engagement with climate change, including through video gaming. In Study 1, a nationally representative survey in the United States (N = 1,006), we found that being a video gamer was slightly positively associated with intentions to take collective action on global warming. In Study 2, restricted to gamers in the United States (N = 2,034), we found that having more friends and family who played video games, and/or being exposed to global warming content in gaming, were also positively associated with collective action intentions. These findings were consistent even after controlling for potential confounding variables such as age, political party, and global warming attitudes. Results suggest that video gamers are a worthwhile potential audience for future climate change communication, combatting the stereotype of video gamers as disengaged or antisocial, at least in the context of climate change. Our study also identifies several potential avenues for future communication with video gamers, particularly outreach to and engagement with gaming communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement created an institutionalized role for non-state actors through voluntary cooperation. Many international NGOs (INGOs) are particularly active in these "Paris partnerships," often working with multinational corporations to reduce emissions and promote decarbonization. Though there is ample work on both the effectiveness of the Paris partnerships and on the role of INGOs in the global climate regime, much of this work focuses "outward" – on how INGOs contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation, or influence norms, discourse and policy. Yet, there is considerably less work that focuses "inward" – examining who INGOs work with in order to achieve their policy goals. This paper provides a descriptive analysis of key INGOs in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, as a first step in a larger research agenda to understand the incentives and opportunities that drive INGO behavior. Specifically, it uses network analysis to identify the "climate establishment" – which I define as the insider INGOs working within the multilateral process and with large corporations to influence rulemaking, soft law and firm behavior. Measures of network centrality demonstrate that two INGOs – WWF and the World Resources Institute – are by far, the most authoritative members of the climate establishment. They participate in the largest number of partnerships, and have "important" friends, as measured by eigenvector centrality. The data also indicate that the climate establishment sees carbon pricing as a key strategy, and it often cooperates with banks that are large funders of fossil fuel projects. The descriptive analysis of the climate establishment and its partners raises important questions for future research about why INGOs choose to partner with F100 companies, and how such cooperation might influence INGO behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing evidence suggests that climate change beliefs can be subject to how the issue is framed. Particularly, the choice between a "global warming" versus a "climate change" framing influenced survey responses in some previous experiments. Furthermore, since the issue of climate change has become strongly polarized politically, framing effects were found to be moderated by political identification. Nevertheless, most of these framing effects were observed in the USA and may not be generalized in other cultures. To contribute to this area of research, we embedded an experiment in nationally representative telephone surveys conducted in 30 European countries in August–September 2021. We manipulated the wording of four climate change-related questions ("global warming" vs. "climate change") and assessed treatment effects both in the full sample and separately among leftist, rightist, green, and right-wing party voters. Our results regarding climate change existence belief replicated earlier findings since existence belief was significantly higher in the climate change group. We also found that the perceived negative impact was slightly lower when the issue was framed as "climate change." In contrast, little evidence was found of people being more skeptical or less worried when asked about "global warming" compared to "climate change." In general, skepticism was higher on the political right; however, leftists, rightists, green, and right-wing voters reacted similarly to the two frames in our European sample. We consider possible explanations for the null findings and argue that the use of "climate change" framing in communication strategies promoting climate action itself will do little to lower skepticism in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a contribution of 40% to the annual global CO2-emissions, the built environment needs to drastically reduce its impact, while also providing pleasant and healthy indoor spaces and protecting people from weather extremes. Over time, particularly in western and industrialized countries, buildings have evolved to shield occupants almost completely from outdoor conditions. As a consequence, humans have become so used to a constant, comfortable indoor environment that we struggle to cope with thermal fluctuations. The time has come to shift perspective, as the very protective character of buildings and provision of omnipresent comfort are neither feasible nor desirable any longer. An enormous amount of energy and resources are spent to provide tightly controlled thermal environments, often with the same target temperature all year round. However, being mostly exposed to constant, comfortable indoor temperatures can have negative impacts on health and deteriorate our human capability to deal with thermal challenges. Importantly, spending time outside the thermal comfort zone is known to enhance human thermoregulatory capacities and thermal resilience, while also improving metabolic and cardiovascular health. This perspective essay aims to draw attention to novel and yet underrepresented avenues of coping with climate challenges, both with respect to the built environment and humans. Allowing more thermal variation indoors will save precious resources, decrease the negative impact of building CO2-footprints, and stimulate physiological and psychological adaptation in humans, which can lead to improved resilience and health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research and development (R&D) investments foster green innovation, which is key to decarbonize the energy system and attain long-term climate goals. In this paper, we link three integrated assessment models that possess a macroeconomic framework—WITCH, MERGE-ETL, and GEM-E3—with the bottom-up technology-rich energy system model TIAM-ECN, in order to quantitatively explore how investments in R&D can support deep decarbonization pathways. We take advantage of the endogenous technological learning feature of the first three models to derive R&D-induced capital cost reductions for strategic clusters of low-carbon technologies: solar energy, on- and offshore wind energy, carbon capture and storage, advanced fuels, and batteries for electric vehicles. We examine scenarios with different assumptions on CO2 mitigation and R&D policy. These assumptions are harmonized among our four models, and capital cost reductions driven by R&D are exogenously incorporated in TIAM-ECN, which enables a detailed assessment of the required energy transition. Our results show that the stringency of climate change mitigation policy remains the key factor influencing the diffusion of low-carbon technologies, while R&D can support mitigation goals and influence the contribution of different types of technologies. If implemented effectively and without worldwide barriers to knowledge spill-overs, R&D facilitates the deployment of mature technologies such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles, and enables lower overall energy system costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models have been extensively used to support climate change negotiations on the global stage. To date, most studies exploring ensembles of these scenarios focus on the global picture, with more limited attention to regional metrics. A systematic approach is still lacking to improve the understanding of regional heterogeneity, highlighting key regional decarbonisation measures and their relative importance for meeting global climate goals under deep uncertainty. This study proposes a novel approach to gaining robust insights into regional decarbonisation strategies using machine learning techniques based on the IPCC SR1.5 scenario database. Random forest analysis first reveals crucial metrics to limit global temperature increases. Logistic regression modelling and the patient rule induction method are then used to identify which of these metrics and their combinations are most influential in meeting climate goals below 2 °C or below 1.5 °C. Solar power and sectoral electrification across all regions have been found to be the most effective measures to limit temperature increases. To further limit increase below 1.5 °C and not only 2 °C, decommissioning of unabated gas plants should be prioritised along with energy efficiency improvements. Bioenergy and wind power show higher regional heterogeneity in limiting temperature increases, with lower influences than aforementioned measures, and are especially relevant in Latin America (bioenergy) and countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Former Soviet Union (bioenergy and wind). In the future, a larger scenario ensemble can be applied to reveal more robust and comprehensive insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher Education Institutions (HEI) can contribute to climate change mitigation through reductions in food-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We examined the impact of serving a low-red meat menu 1 day per week on the GHG emissions associated with residential dining halls at a university setting in the USA. We also estimated the potential impacts of replacing meat with lower-emission proteins on GHG emissions and cost using hypothetical substitution scenarios. Food items procured to prepare daily meals were linked to GHG emissions values. During one academic term, a "Sustainable Mondays" intervention was implemented, wherein dining halls reduced red meat dishes on Mondays. We compared GHG emissions on Mondays with Wednesdays. We then developed substitution scenarios that replaced beef, red meat, or all meats and fish with lower-emission protein sources on a per gram of protein basis. Overall, the University dining service food procurement emitted 4661 metric tonnes CO2-eq in one academic term, of which 81% came from animal-source foods. Dining halls reduced red meat procurement by 81% on "Sustainable Mondays," resulting in 240 fewer metric tonnes of CO2-eq (− 31% compared to Wednesdays). We estimated that replacing red meat with lower-emission meat and red meat/poultry with fish or plant-based proteins could reduce GHG emissions by 14–46%. Our study suggests there is considerable potential for HEI to reduce climate impacts through simple replacements of red meat with lower-emission proteins. Achieving the necessary scales of meat reduction in HEI likely requires institution-wide transformation with changes to food procurement, dining hall choice architecture, and education for students and staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing individual fossil fuel use is an important component of climate change mitigation, but motivating behaviour change to achieve this is difficult. Protection motivation theory (PMT) is a psychological framework that outlines the conditions under which people are more likely to be persuaded to take a specific response or action. This experimental study investigated the impact six different protection motivation theory-based messages had on intention to reduce fossil fuel use in a sample 3803 US adults recruited via Amazon Mechanical (MTurk). Only messages targeting self-efficacy and response efficacy increased intention to reduce fossil fuel use relative to the control message. However, only the self-efficacy message had an impact on its target construct (i.e. self-efficacy). As such, the mechanism for action for the response efficacy message is unclear. Furthermore, while the current study demonstrates that many of the PMT-related messages did not achieve changes in intention, this it is still possible that messages targeting these constructs could still lead to changes in intention in other modalities and when other message content is used. Given the urgency of responding to climate change, the potential for additive benefits of combining effective PMT-based messages should be considered irrespective of their mechanism as should research focused on how to effectively target other key PMT constructs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominant policy approaches have failed to generate action at anywhere near the rate, scale or depth needed to avert climate change and environmental disaster. In particular, they fail to address the need for a fundamental cultural transformation, which involves a collective shift in mindsets (values, beliefs, worldviews and associated inner human capacities). Whilst scholars and practitioners are increasingly calling for more integrative approaches, knowledge on how the link between our mind and the climate crisis can be best addressed in policy responses is still scarce. Our study addresses this gap. Based on a survey and in-depth interviews with high-level policymakers worldwide, we explore how they perceive the intersection of mind and climate change, how it is reflected in current policymaking and how it could be better considered to support transformation. Our findings show, on the one hand, that the mind is perceived as a victim of increasing climate impacts. On the other hand, it is considered a key driver of the crisis, and a barrier to action, to the detriment of both personal and planetary wellbeing. The resultant vicious cycle of mind and climate change is, however, not reflected in mainstream policymaking, which fails to generate more sustainable pathways. At the same time, there are important lessons from other fields (e.g. education, health, the workplace, policy mainstreaming) that provide insights into how to integrate aspects of mind into climate policies. Our results show that systematic integration into policymaking is a key for improving both climate resilience and climate responsiveness across individual, collective, organisational and system levels and indicate the inner human potential and capacities that support related change. We conclude with some policy recommendations and further research that is needed to move from a vicious to a virtuous cycle of mind and climate change that supports personal and planetary wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated how subsurface and atmospheric leakage from geologic CO2 storage reservoirs could impact the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the global energy system. The Leakage Risk Monetization Model was used to estimate the costs of leakage for representative CO2 injection scenarios, and these costs were incorporated into the Global Change Assessment Model. Worst-case scenarios of CO2 leakage risk, which assume that all leakage pathway permeabilities are extremely high, were simulated. Even with this extreme assumption, the associated costs of monitoring, treatment, containment, and remediation resulted in minor shifts in the global energy system. For example, the reduction in CCS deployment in the electricity sector was 3% for the “high” leakage scenario, with replacement coming from fossil fuel and biomass without CCS, nuclear power, and renewable energy. In other words, the impact on CCS deployment under a realistic leakage scenario is likely to be negligible. We also quantified how the resulting shifts will impact atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Under a carbon tax that achieves an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 480 ppm in 2100, technology shifts due to leakage costs would increase this concentration by less than 5 ppm. It is important to emphasize that this increase does not result from leaked CO2 that reaches the land surface, which is minimal due to secondary trapping in geologic strata above the storage reservoir. The overall conclusion is that leakage risks and associated costs will likely not interfere with the effectiveness of policies for climate change mitigation.

The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum's 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil's bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings account for 36% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics. Global CO2 emissions for space heating are projected to decrease between 34.4 (SSP3) and 52.5% (SSP1) by 2050 under energy efficiency improvements and electrification. Space cooling demand starkly rises in developing countries, with CO2 emissions increasing globally by 58.2 (SSP1) to 85.2% (SSP3) by 2050. Scenarios substantially differ in the uptake of energy efficient new construction and renovations, generally higher for single-family homes, and in space cooling patterns across income levels and locations, with most of the demand in the global south driven by medium- and high-income urban households. This study contributes an advancement in the granularity of building sector knowledge to be assessed in integration with other sources of emissions in the context of global climate change mitigation and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil Carbon Storage has emerged as a feasible strategy for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, raising important questions regarding whether the general public supports the strategy as a means to address climate change. We analyzed data from a national probability survey of 1222 US adults who reported believing in climate change at least “somewhat” to estimate public support for Soil Carbon Storage and how it compares to other leading Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) strategies. Overall, a majority of the sample expressed support for Soil Carbon Storage—regardless of whether the strategy involved the use of biochar (a form of charcoal made from organic matter) or not (55% and 62%, respectively)—placing Soil Carbon Storage ahead of Bioenergy plus Carbon Capture and Storage (32%) and Direct Air Capture (25%), and behind only Afforestation and Reforestation (73%), in terms of public support. In addition, perceiving Soil Carbon Storage as “natural” strongly predicted individual-level support, a pattern that held for every CDR strategy featured on the survey. Results demonstrate broad US public support for Soil Carbon Storage as a climate change mitigation strategy at a time when scientists and policymakers are actively considering the political, not just technical, feasibility of different climate solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We conduct uncertainty analysis on the impacts of the future cost of wind energy on global electricity generation and the value of wind energy to climate change mitigation. We integrate data on global onshore and offshore wind energy cost and resources into the Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM), and then propagate uncertainty based on distributions derived from an expert elicitation study on the future cost of onshore and offshore wind energy. The share of wind energy electricity generation in 2035, without a global policy on CO2 emissions, ranges between 4% and more than triple the 2019 share of 5.3%. Under a 1.5°C cap, this range is wider, with shares up to 34%. This range of uncertainty implies the need for flexible systems and policies, allowing large amounts to be deployed if needed. We explore whether a breakthrough in wind energy could prevent the demand for natural gas as a bridge technology to a low carbon economy, and find that uncertainty in wind energy is only pertinent for medium-stringency policies, such as a $60/t carbon tax. Under this scenario, there is a 95% chance that the cost of wind energy will be low enough to lead to an immediate reduction in the share of natural gas. In contrast, under a business-as-usual scenario without a breakthrough in cost, natural gas is highly likely to continue increasing in share of electricity generation. Under a 1.5°C cap, natural gas will decrease in share regardless of wind energy cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models' usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a correction notice for an article titled "Progress on climate action: a multilingual machine learning analysis of the global stocktake" published in the journal Climatic Change. The correction addresses errors in Table 1, specifically in the third column labeled "Author type." The corrected version now accurately reflects the data. Additionally, Figure 1 has been updated for clarity. The publisher, Springer Nature, maintains a neutral stance on jurisdictional claims and institutional affiliations. The authors of the original article are Anne J. Sietsma, Rick W. Groenendijk, and Robbert Biesbroek. [Extracted from the article]

Meeting the Paris Agreement targets requires strong near-term climate change mitigation in all sectors of the economy. Increasing demand-side emission abatement efforts is one important area to pursue, yet there are significant barriers that must be overcome in order to realize its potential. We ask: What barriers may be hindering deep emissions reduction at the household level? What kinds of levers are available to achieve emission reductions? Based on an original and extensive qualitative dataset, our in-depth study of households in Bergen, Norway, shows that individuals perceive they are confronted with considerable individual, economic, and infrastructural barriers that prevent them from taking deep mitigation actions. Our results however also suggest that some barriers can be overcome with motivational levers such as the availability of more sustainable alternatives, support networks and by the positive emotions felt when having a positive impact on the environment. Other barriers are more difficult to overcome, pointing to the overarching lesson from our study that households will need to be forced or incentivized beyond voluntary efforts to achieve rapid and comprehensive decarbonization. The current policy approach, aimed mostly at nudging for voluntary mitigation actions, is wholly inadequate to achieve significant emission reductions. Our study indicates that households are open for increasingly including more "sticks" into climate policymaking. While there are significant challenges to individuals taking stronger mitigation action, these can be overcome by strengthening government policies targeting the patterns and, importantly, volumes of household consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the era when human activities can fundamentally alter the planetary climate system, a stable climate is a global commons. However, the need to develop the economy to sustain the growing human population poses the Climate Commons Dilemma. Although citizens may need to support policies that forgo their country's economic growth, they may instead be motivated to grow their economy while freeriding on others' efforts to mitigate the ongoing climate change. To examine how to resolve the climate commons dilemma, we constructed a Climate Commons Game (CCG), an experimental analogue of the climate commons dilemma that embeds a simple model of the effects of economic activities on global temperature rise and its eventual adverse effects on the economy. The game includes multiple economic units, and each participant is tasked to manage one economic unit while keeping global temperature rise to a sustainable level. In two experiments, we show that people can manage the climate system and their economies better when they regarded the goal of environmentally sustainable economic growth as a singular global goal that all economic units collectively pursue rather than a goal to be achieved by each unit individually. In addition, beliefs that everyone shares the knowledge about the climate system help the group coordinate their economic activities better to mitigate global warming in the CCG. However, we also found that the resolution of the climate commons dilemma came at the cost of exacerbating inequality among the economic units in the current constrains of the CCG. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban areas around the world are increasingly investing in networks of urban forests, gardens, and other forms of green infrastructure for their benefits, including enhanced livability, sustainability, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. Proactive planning for climate change requires anticipating potential climate change impacts to green infrastructure and adjusting management strategies accordingly. We apply climate change projections for the Midwest US state of Indiana to assess the possible impacts of climate change on common forms of urban green infrastructure and identify management implications. Projected changes in Indiana's temperature and precipitation could pose numerous management challenges for urban green infrastructure, including water stress, pests, weeds, disease, invasive species, flooding, frost risk, and timing of maintenance. Meeting these challenges will involve managing for key characteristics of resilient systems (e.g., biodiversity, redundancy) as well as more specific strategies addressing particular climate changes (e.g., shifting species compositions, building soil water holding capacity). Climate change also presents opportunities to promote urban green infrastructure. Unlike human built infrastructure, green infrastructure is conducive to grassroots stewardship and governance, relieving climate change-related strains on municipal budgets. Resources for adapting urban green infrastructure to climate change are already being applied to the management of urban green infrastructure, and emerging research will enhance understanding of best management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass feedstocks can be used to substitute fossil fuels and effectively remove carbon from the atmosphere to offset residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sectors. Both features make biomass valuable for climate change mitigation; therefore, CO2 emission mitigation leads to complex and dynamic interactions between the energy and the land-use sector via emission pricing policies and bioenergy markets. Projected bioenergy deployment depends on climate target stringency as well as assumptions about context variables such as technology development, energy and land markets as well as policies. This study investigates the intra- and intersectorial effects on physical quantities and prices by coupling models of the energy (REMIND) and land-use sector (MAgPIE) using an iterative soft-link approach. The model framework is used to investigate variations of a broad set of context variables, including the harmonized variations on bioenergy technologies of the 33rd model comparison study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on climate change mitigation and large scale bioenergy deployment. Results indicate that CO2 emission mitigation triggers strong decline of fossil fuel use and rapid growth of bioenergy deployment around midcentury (~ 150 EJ/year) reaching saturation towards end-of-century. Varying context variables leads to diverse changes on mid-century bioenergy markets and carbon pricing. For example, reducing the ability to exploit the carbon value of bioenergy increases bioenergy use to substitute fossil fuels, whereas limitations on bioenergy supply shift bioenergy use to conversion alternatives featuring higher carbon capture rates. Radical variations, like fully excluding all technologies that combine bioenergy use with carbon removal, lead to substantial intersectorial effects by increasing bioenergy demand and increased economic pressure on both sectors. More gradual variations like selective exclusion of advanced bioliquid technologies in the energy sector or changes in diets mostly lead to substantial intrasectorial reallocation effects. The results deepen our understanding of the land-energy nexus, and we discuss the importance of carefully choosing variations in sensitivity analyses to provide a balanced assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of a Special Issue reporting results from the "Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCF) and Air Quality" edited by John Weyant, Steven J Smith, and Zbigniew Klimont Introduction Anthropogenic climate change is driven largely by changes in atmospheric energy balance, termed radiative forcing. For road transport, emission trajectories show similar features with increasing fuel use and steady reduction of emissions (consistent with the CLE development of emission factors - see Fig. This highlights the need to move beyond quantification of the technical potential for methane emission reductions, as assumed in the EMF-30 scenarios, but to understand the barriers to implementing mitigation and to better understand the pace at which deep emission reductions could actually be put into place (van den Berg et al. [24], Höglund et al. [10]). Models that allow a methane price to have an economic impact on methane-emitting technologies show significant non-methane emission reductions, largely CO SB 2 sb , from the increasing methane price in the EMF-30 scenarios. [Extracted from the article]

The role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energy-economic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification under a wide range of carbon price trajectories, which start at 1–690 USD/tCO2 in 2030, increase at 4.5%/year, and level off in 2100. This scenario design allows close examination of energy, economic, and environmental implications of different levels of policy stringency and carbon budgets. While improving end-use efficiencies consistently decrease policy costs for a wide range of carbon budgets, the value of BECCS availability in terms of cost reduction is crucial only in a limited range toward lower budgets. Constraints on BECCS, including those indirectly imposed by the limited bioenergy supply, also tend to narrow the lower range of attainable budget levels, indicating technological and economic challenges, although they may have an impact on reducing the total budget including land-use emissions. Overall, the advanced end-use efficiency has a significant effect on the required level of policy stringency for a given climate goal, so that it can compensate for the biomass constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions can potentially contribute to both reducing air pollution and climate change, although mixed results have been reported regarding the latter. A detailed quantification of the synergy between global air quality and climate policy is still lacking. This study contributes with an integrated assessment model-based scenario analysis of BC-focused mitigation strategies aimed at maximizing air quality and climate benefits. The impacts of these policy strategies have been examined under different socio-economic conditions, climate ambitions, and BC mitigation strategies. The study finds that measures targeting BC emissions (including reduction of co-emitted organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxides) result in significant decline in premature mortality due to ambient air pollution, in the order of 4 to 12 million avoided deaths between 2015 and 2030. Under certain circumstances, BC mitigation can also reduce climate change, i.e., mainly by lowering BC emissions in the residential sector and in high BC emission scenarios. Still, the effect of BC mitigation on global mean temperature is found to be modest at best (with a maximum short-term GMT decrease of 0.02 °C in 2030) and could even lead to warming (with a maximum increase of 0.05 °C in case of a health-focused strategy, where all aerosols are strongly reduced). At the same time, strong climate policy would improve air quality (the opposite relation) through reduced fossil fuel use, leading to an estimated 2 to 5 million avoided deaths in the period up to2030. By combining both air quality and climate goals, net health benefits can be maximized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today's 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a "no-regret option" in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the twenty-first century, modern bioenergy could become one of the largest sources of energy, partially replacing fossil fuels and contributing to climate change mitigation. Agricultural and forestry biomass residues form an inexpensive bioenergy feedstock with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if harvested sustainably. We analysed quantities of biomass residues supplied for energy and their sensitivities in harmonised bioenergy demand scenarios across eight integrated assessment models (IAMs) and compared them with literature-estimated residue availability. IAM results vary substantially, at both global and regional scales, but suggest that residues could meet 7–50% of bioenergy demand towards 2050, and 2–30% towards 2100, in a scenario with 300 EJ/year of exogenous bioenergy demand towards 2100. When considering mean literature-estimated availability, residues could provide around 55 EJ/year by 2050. Inter-model differences primarily arise from model structure, assumptions, and the representation of agriculture and forestry. Despite these differences, drivers of residues supplied and underlying cost dynamics are largely similar across models. Higher bioenergy demand or biomass prices increase the quantity of residues supplied for energy, though their effects level off as residues become depleted. GHG emission pricing and land protection can increase the costs of using land for lignocellulosic bioenergy crop cultivation, which increases residue use at the expense of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops. In most IAMs and scenarios, supplied residues in 2050 are within literature-estimated residue availability, but outliers and sustainability concerns warrant further exploration. We conclude that residues can cost-competitively play an important role in the twenty-first century bioenergy supply, though uncertainties remain concerning (regional) forestry and agricultural production and resulting residue supply potentials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models' projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a "frozen emission factor" scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media reports and public polls suggest that young people in many countries are increasingly factoring climate change into their reproductive choices, but empirical evidence about this phenomenon is lacking. This article reviews the scholarship on this subject and discusses the results of the first empirical study focused on it, a quantitative and qualitative survey of 607 US-Americans between the ages of 27 and 45. While 59.8% of respondents reported being "very" or "extremely concerned" about the carbon footprint of procreation, 96.5% of respondents were "very" or "extremely concerned" about the well-being of their existing, expected, or hypothetical children in a climate-changed world. This was largely due to an overwhelmingly negative expectation of the future with climate change. Younger respondents were more concerned about the climate impacts their children would experience than older respondents, and there was no statistically significant difference between the eco-reproductive concerns of male and female respondents. These and other results are situated within scholarship about growing climate concern in the USA, the concept of the carbon footprint, the carbon footprint of procreation, individual actions in response to climate change, temporal perceptions of climate change, and expectations about the future in the USA. Potential implications for future research in environmental psychology, environmental sociology, the sociology of reproduction, demography, and climate mitigation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic global warming and have serious and potentially life-threatening impacts on human health, particularly for people over 65 years old. While a range of studies examine heatwave exposures, few cover the whole globe and very few cover key areas in Africa, South America, and East Asia. By using global gridded climate reanalysis, population, and demographic data, this work analyses trends in change in exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves, providing global and per-country aggregate statistics. The difference between the global mean of heatwave indexes and the mean weighted by vulnerable population found that these populations are experiencing up to five times the number of heatwave days relative to the global average. The total exposures, measured in person-days of heatwave, highlight the combined effect of increased heatwaves and aging populations. In China and India, heatwave exposure increased by an average of 508 million person-days per year in the last decade. Mapping of changes per country highlighted significant exposure increases, particularly in the Middle East and in South East Asia. Major disparities were found between the heatwave exposures, country income group, and country health system capacity, thus highlighting the significant inequalities in global warming impacts and response capacities with respect to health across countries. It is therefore of prime importance that health development and response are coordinated with climate change mitigation and adaptation work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is part of the Special Issue on "Everyday Climate Cultures: Understanding the cultural politics of climate change" edited by Goodman, Doyle and Farrell As we write this editorial introduction, the UK is slowly emerging from its period of self-imposed lockdown restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic and facing the virus's lasting impacts upon society at every scale imaginable. Taking a longitudinal approach to the study of climate imagery, Saffron O'Neill (2020) explores how UK and US newspapers visually depict climate change during the period 2001-2009, an important decade for the expansion and consolidation of climate change science, activism and engagement. Through online surveys and interviews, US climate scholars were asked about their everyday climate advocacy work beyond their professional commitments, defined here by evidence-based climate science rather than particular policy outcomes. [Extracted from the article]

As climate change is unlikely to follow a linear path, climate policies should anticipate varied outcomes and be flexibly responsive. The case for such "robust policy" is compelling. However, advocates of robust approaches to policymaking often understate the challenge, as the variability of climate is just one of at least three interactive arenas of uncertainty that require attention. Emerging technologies will have a significant but indeterminate impact on climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Uncertainty is also heightened because politics is an arena of disruptive change. The development of robust climate policy given the convergence of unknowns in the climatic, technological, and political realms entails three components: (1) diverse, distributed, and transparent participation; (2) safe-to-fail experimentation; and (3) exploratory foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands are significant components of the coastal landscape with important roles in ecosystem service provision and mitigation of climate change. They are also likely to be the system most impacted by climate change, feeling the effects of sea levels rise, temperature increases and rainfall regime changes. Climate change impacts on estuarine coastal wetlands (mangroves, saltmarsh) have been thoroughly investigated; however, the impacts on coastal freshwater wetlands (CFWs) are relatively unknown. To explore the current knowledge of the impacts of climate change on CFWs globally, we undertook a systematic quantitative literature review of peer-reviewed published literature. We found surprisingly little research (110 papers of an initial 678), the majority of which was conducted in the USA, focusing on the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on CFW vegetation or sediment accretion processes. From this research, we know that SLR will lead to reduced productivity, reduced regeneration, and increased mortality in CFW vegetation but little is known regarding the effects of other climate change drivers. Sediment accretion is also not sufficient to keep pace with SLR in many CFWs and again the effects of other climate drivers have not been investigated. The combination of unhealthy vegetation communities and minimal gain in vertical elevation can result in a transition towards a vegetation community of salt-tolerant species but more research is required to understand this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the choices that might be needed for India's energy sector under alternative mitigation scenarios. The article draws on the CD-LINKS study—a collaborative EU project under which seven pathways based on different combinations of carbon budget (high and low) and policy implementation (early and late) were developed and examined. This study uses the MARKAL energy system model to develop these scenarios. The three broad strategies that emerge for India include decarbonisation of electricity, electrification of end-uses and improvement in energy efficiency. We conclude that by undertaking early action, India can potentially prevent carbon lock-in and leapfrog to renewables from coal in the power sector. However, early action scenarios exhibit higher cost than their delayed action counterparts. Several other barriers and challenges also need to be addressed in order to enable large-scale uptake of low-carbon technologies. India may need to come up with innovative mechanisms to ensure a smooth and just transition for the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many early career researchers (ECRs) have the capacity and drive to contribute to climate adaptation and mitigation solutions. Strategic investments in training and support, especially in broad-based efforts that span traditional disciplinary boundaries, can help ECRs meet this potential and become emerging leaders equipped to address pressing climate-related challenges throughout their careers. In 2018, the inaugural USDA Northeast Climate Hub's Graduate Climate Adaptation Partners (GradCAP) Program was launched to provide professional development opportunities and a platform for collaboration to graduate students studying climate resilience in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture. This essay represents the unified voice of this consortium of emerging leaders. Here we offer perspectives, experiences, and recommendations for building capacity among ECRs, specifically with regard to interdisciplinary research, long-term research, and community engagement. We discuss these three tenants, which we term Convergence, Continuity, and Community, as essential elements in the development of successful leaders prepared for the complex challenges ahead. We encourage institutions, particularly universities and government agencies, to commit resources and pursue structural changes to provide support for mentorship and training that span these focal areas. As a result, more ECRs will have the capacity to engage in meaningful solution-oriented research and make lasting societal contributions toward the sustainable production of food and other natural resources in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C world up to 2050. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting pathways and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them. Our results indicate quite different mitigation pathways for the different countries, shown by the way emission reductions are split between different sectors of their economies and technological alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's commitment to Paris Climate Change Agreement through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will require the energy system to gradually move away from fossil fuels. The current energy system is witnessing a transformation to achieve these through renewable energy targets and enhanced energy efficiency (EE) actions in all sectors. More stringent global GHG mitigation targets of 2 °C and well below 2 °C regimes would impose further challenges and uncertainties for the Indian energy systems. This paper provides a quantitative assessment using bottom-up optimization model (AIM/Enduse) to assess these until 2050 for meeting carbon mitigation commitments while achieving the national sustainable development goals. Energy transformation trajectories under five scenarios synchronized with climate mitigation regimes are explored—Business As Usual scenario (BAU), NDC scenario, 2 °C scenarios (early and late actions), and well below 2 °C scenario. The key results from the study include (a) coal-based power plants older than 30 years under NDC and older than 20 years for deeper CO2 mitigation will be stranded before their lifetime, (b) increase in renewables of up to 225–280 GW by 2050 will require battery storage with improved integrated smart grid infrastructure, (c) growth in nuclear to 27–32 GW by 2050 is dependent on nuclear supply availability, (d) gradual shift towards electrification in industry, building, and transport sectors, and (e) installation of CCS technologies in power and industry sectors. Cumulative investments of up to 6–8 trillion USD (approximately) will be required during 2015–2030 to implement the actions required to transform the current energy systems in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to facilitate the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices by smallholders, it is essential to understand their perspectives on climate change. However, few empirical studies have considered how smallholders perceive climate change in Central Vietnam. This research investigates the Vietnamese smallholders' views on the causes and indicators of climate change and factors that affect their perceptions of it in Central Vietnam. A sample size of 170 was drawn from a total of 297 smallholders and a structured questionnaire was developed to collect data. Descriptive, chi-square (χ2) and logistic regression analyses were used. The research results revealed that most smallholders perceived urbanization (93.5%), followed by deforestation (85.3%), air pollution (84.4%) and unappropriated dealing with agricultural wastes (82.4%) are the causes of climate change. A majority of smallholders perceived that excessive lightening (91.2%), followed by change in rainfall season length (90.6%), frequent droughts (90%), change in temperature (88.2%), uneven rainfall distribution (85.9%), rainfall amount (84.1%) and frequent floods (82.9%) are the most noted indicators of climate change. The success of regression model overall prediction is reported by model χ2 = 92.69, p < 0.000, showing that the independent variables significantly explained the dependent variable. Among the independent variables, farming practice, information communication and technology (ICT) owned, community-based organisation participation, gender, type of household, credit programme participation and education level are significantly important determinants of smallholders' perception on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Misunderstandings in the relative efficacy of pro-environmental behaviors may have important consequences for climate mitigation efforts. In this study, we evaluate the ability to perceive the carbon footprint associated with individual actions, known as "carbon numeracy," in 965 members of the North American public using ranking and tradeoff questions. The questions are designed to independently assess the role of knowledge, ability to do tradeoffs, and basic numeracy skills in determining carbon numeracy. We report multiple lines of evidence suggesting that people underestimate greenhouse gas emissions associated with air travel and, to a lesser extent, meat consumption. They are also largely incapable of making tradeoffs between different actions (e.g., the number of hamburgers that would be equivalent to a trans-Atlantic flight in terms of climate impact). Concern for climate change, political orientation, and education were not significant predictors of accuracy in making tradeoffs, but basic numeracy was linked with increased accuracy. The results suggest that further education may be necessary to improve carbon numeracy by providing the public with a basic hierarchy of actions according to carbon reduction efficacy. Consumers seeking to balance their carbon budgets may benefit from external aids (e.g., carbon labels associated with actions) to guide emission-related decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigates the future climate change in the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Himalaya, India, by the end of the twenty-first century under 3 emission scenarios and highlights the changes in the distribution of the prevalent climate zones in the region. The multi-model climate high-resolution projections for the baseline period (1961–1990) are validated against the observed climate variables from 8 meteorological stations in the region. The temperature projections from the GFDL CM2.1 model are found in good agreement with the observations; however, no single model investigated in the present study reasonably simulates precipitation and therefore multi-model ensemble is used for precipitation projections. The average annual temperature is projected to increase by 4.5 °C, 3.98 °C, and 6.93 °C by the end of the twenty-first century under A1B, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, an insignificant variation in precipitation projection is observed under all the 3 scenarios. The analysis indicates that, unlike the 13 climate zones under the updated Köppen-Geiger climate classification scheme, the J&K Himalaya broadly falls into 10 main climate zones only namely, "3 subtropical (~ 11%), 4 temperate (~ 19%), and 3 cold desert (~ 70%) zones". The projected climate change under the 3 emission scenarios indicates significant changes in the distribution of prevalent climate zones. The cold desert climate zone in the Ladakh region would shrink by ~ 22% and correspondingly the subtropical and temperate zones would expand due to the projected climate change. This information is vital for framing robust policies for adaptation and mitigation of the climate change impacts on various socio-economic and ecological sectors in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate and trade policy present serious contemporary challenges for all nations. Developed market economies are struggling with trade policy in the modern era of globalization, and the resulting realignments are straining the post-war international economic order. National emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement appear at present to fall far short of achieving the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cuts that science suggests are needed to remain in a < 2 °C world. Merging climate and trade policy could provide developed economies a strategy for limiting global emissions while protecting and promoting their economic competitiveness. Since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, border carbon adjustments (BCAs) that would help protect domestic energy-intensive industry and prevent leakage have been discussed as a mechanism to make unilateral climate mitigation more politically attractive. Especially if implemented non-cooperatively, BCAs open the backdoor to protectionism and retaliation and potentially allow nations to retreat behind static barriers. Developments in international trade policy make this alternative to traditional climate diplomacy more viable today than previously and also increase the chance of climate protectionism. We propose an alternative policy framework—a cooperative sectoral tariff reduction (CSTR)—that would help provide dynamic incentives to improve performance, reduce the chance of BCAs being coopted for protectionist purposes, and create the foundation of a carbon club. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts from climate change will significantly affect local governance, and efforts to develop adaptation and mitigation policies will require widespread public support. However, public engagement, and discussions of climate change, remains limited. A new approach to public engagement titled, deliberative framing, can help bridge political divides and provide opportunities to discover innovative policy options. This paper reviews deliberative democracy and framing where they have been applied to examine public engagement on climate change. Integrating insights from these fields can help develop a practice of deliberative framing for managing climate change mitigation and adaptation actions at local scales, to complement national and international efforts. This could assist with community-based agenda setting toward greater justice and the public good. Challenges include building capacity for reflexivity, communication, and public engagement among government actors, recognizing there are different ways to frame climate change and designing deliberative forums that are more inclusive of disparate groups and often underrepresented minorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the ocean's role in regulating the climate and providing ecosystem services, the importance of the ocean has only recently gained appropriate attention in the context of international climate change policies. This concerns the impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems and the role of the ocean in climate change mitigation. Since impacts can be cumulative, future climate risks for the ocean and dependent human communities emphasize the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we make the case that assessing these impacts and their consequences for human welfare would provide not only an ethical but also an economic justification for strengthening policy responses to a substantial degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]