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The push for decarbonization is dampening resource prospects in nations with undeveloped oil and gas. It is critical to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the petroleum sector, but there are equity issues related to requiring a shift away from oil and gas before development gains are made, especially in countries that have contributed very little to historical emissions. We review the prospects for five emerging producers to produce oil and gas at the lowest emissions intensity while achieving their economic and environmental goals. We find they lack the required capacity for stringent emissions management and to manage transition risks. The low-carbon pathway presents its own challenges with plans that lack national specificity and offer no substitute to the fiscal potential of the petroleum sector, and a lack of supportive technical assistance and finance. A just transition (JT) approach in these countries will not be about reskilling as they move away from a petroleum dependent economy, but instead about engaging with citizens to break the mould of petroleum-led development expectations and defining the new pathway for development. These countries will require support for transition planning that ensures that any oil and gas production minimizes GHG emissions, and limits the risk of economic lock-in, to invest in broad-based benefits and in a credible shift to a low-carbon economy. Inadequate international support risks leaving some countries behind, or to essential changes being contested in the transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring access to sustainable energy is equally relevant for both sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Mobilising private finance in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries will, in turn, be of crucial importance for achieving both Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 – which calls for universal energy access – and climate change mitigation goals defined under the Paris Agreement. In this paper, we assess how UNFCCC-backed climate finance instruments have engaged private investment for energy-focused climate mitigation in SSA. Based on this assessment, we develop recommendations for public climate finance institutions. Our work builds on documentary and database analysis and interviews, as well as participatory methodologies applied at a stakeholder workshop conducted in Kampala, Uganda, in 2018. Three case studies from Ethiopia, Madagascar and South Africa illustrate how climate finance interacts with domestic policy instruments, including in relation to the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, South Africa's domestic renewable energy auctions, and the Green Climate Fund. The paper finds that there is no 'catch all' success model and approaches need to be tailored to local circumstances. Key policy insights International market mechanisms and climate finance can be key catalysts for private multibillion-dollar investment in energy access and climate mitigation, even under the challenging conditions facing many SSA nations. Market mechanisms need to be managed well to provide the private sector with the certainty needed to commit to fresh investments. A programmatic approach with standardised baseline and monitoring methodologies should be anchored in the next generation of project-based market mechanisms under Paris Agreement Article 6. Linking international and regional development programmes with the international carbon market might be an option for closing financing gaps, while at the same time increasing synergies between climate goals and SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the un-electrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. In practice, diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. In Nigeria's nationally-determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, over 60% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) reductions are foreseen in the power sector. The goal of this study is to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet its 2030 electricity access, renewables and decarbonization goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, we build three potential scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHS). The supply assumptions are built upon an evaluation of the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity, and possible scale-up rates up to 2030. The results reveal that, in the most ambitious Green Transition scenario, Nigeria meets its electricity access goals, whereby those connected to the grid achieve a Tier 3 level of access, and those served by sustainable off-grid solutions (mini-grids and SHS) achieve Tier 2. Decarbonization pledges would be surpassed in all three scenarios but renewable energy goals would only be partly met. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation continues to play a substantial role in all scenarios. The implications and critical uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed. Key policy insights The 2030 electricity mix for Nigeria varies across the scenarios presented, with the most ambitious scenario achieving electricity access goals and partly meeting renewable energy goals. All three scenarios surpass the decarbonization targets of Nigeria's NDC for the power sector. The transformation of the power sector relies on a wide range of financial, policy and enabling environment-related conditions taking place in the near-term, some of which are in turn strongly influenced by larger political economy realities. Fossil fuel-based back-up generation plays a substantial role in all scenarios. Data availability for this technology remains a significant source of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy documents and academic literature suggest that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) finance could complement traditional ‘energy access’ (EA) funding in developing countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Yet these propositions have not been empirically tested. This study helps fill this gap by examining constraints to CDM project passage through five stages of an idealized project development cycle (PDC) in Tanzania, and their implications for the ability of the CDM to contribute to financing energy access in LDCs. Twenty-five semi-structured interviews and documentary material were analysed using an analytical framework developed for systematic investigation of constraints. Institutional constraints such as the under-performance of Tanzania's Designated National Authority were the most often mentioned obstacles for project development. Yet non-institutional constraints such as limited energy sector mitigation potential, indigenous skill shortages, and low carbon market prices also hinder project development. Institutional constraints buttress, rather than supersede, pre-existing non-institutional constraints, and together they prevent energy projects from completing the PDC and accessing CDM finance. The number and severity of constraints suggest that the situation is unlikely to change rapidly, and that the CDM sustains and exacerbates existing global inequalities. Since traditional energy access funding is insufficient to address these inequalities, new funding and policy mechanisms are required. Policy relevance The CDM fails to fill the EA financing gap in Tanzania. This is also true for other LDCs where comparable project development challenges prevail. The CDM therefore appears to sustain uneven development patterns overlooking those most in need. Claims about its potential to enhance EA are misplaced, and the situation is unlikely to change rapidly. CDM and carbon market projects more widely will have limited ability to help financing EA in LDCs, even if the institutional setting within which they are implemented were reformed in the future. Yet traditional energy funding will be inadequate on its own. The debate over extending the CDM post-2017, when the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period expires, should be informed by honest appraisal of its merits and defects. Policy makers should revisit lessons provided by this article and wider research to help ensure that new EA mechanisms are not hampered by constraints and can benefit those most in need. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development and transfer of clean energy technologies to achieve universal energy access is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the energy sector, and the energy governance and financial systems in developing economies. Innovation is an essential part of successfully addressing these difficulties. Duplicating the energy infrastructure models of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet the needs of poor consumers. To the extent that innovation can accelerate energy access, it is important to understand the specific types of innovations that are necessary and how they might be facilitated. The general features of existing international clean energy innovation systems, which are predominantly driven by the markets and emissions reduction mechanisms of developed and rapidly growing emerging economies, are reviewed and the alignment of these systems to the innovation processes required to extend energy access globally is evaluated. Drawing on the innovation policy literature, the attributes of effective international and domestic energy innovation systems that are pro-poor and the associated policy approaches are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]