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Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in southern Africa. When rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity, leading to erosion and flood damage. However, these predictions have had very little influence on policy in southern African countries. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations for Namibia indicate that over 20 years, annual losses to the Namibian economy could be up to 5% of GDP, due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poorest people the most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour in rural areas. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are `climate proofed' and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farm workers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialized nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent case studies for individual locations and on individual urban challenges reveal the growing complexity of managing interrelations among population, infrastructure and institutions. Climate change is increasing the pressures on many urban systems and adding to this complexity. Many of the case studies investigating urban dynamics in the light of climate change have chosen narrow, sector-specific approaches. Few projects have built on insights from complexity theory and related bodies of knowledge which are more consistent with the perspective that urban infrastructure systems are tightly coupled with one another and must respond to often subtle, long-term changes of technological, social and environmental conditions. Drawing on that knowledge, and building on insights from previous case studies, this article explores the potential roles of complexity theory in guiding investment and policy decisions in the urban context. Policy and management that are consistent with insights from complexity theory will need to anticipate a wide array of potential trajectories for urban dynamics, identify and implement strategies that are robust under a range of potential developments, continuously innovate the policy-making and management institutions, and intensify the exchange of knowledge between science and society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]