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Emissions trading systems (ETS) have been a widely-adopted policy instrument for global climate mitigation and a key choice in China's pledge for peaking emissions and carbon neutrality. Broader adoption and linkage of ETS programmes require a better understanding of whether, to what extent, and how existing regional programmes address carbon emissions at an aggregate level. Combining a synthetic control method and event studies, we adopt a comprehensive evaluation framework to investigate regional mitigation effects, pathways, and ancillary impacts in three Chinese regions with four independent pilot ETS programmes. The findings show economy-wide responses to pilot announcement even in non-ETS sectors, but enduring mitigation only within ETS sectors. Mitigation was achieved via improvement in energy efficiency and fuel switch, without impairing industrial activities. There were local air-pollution reduction co-benefits but no leakage or spillover. Bounded extrapolation from the pilots suggests 18%–20% reductions can be achieved in non-pilot regions by a national market, which could learn from pilots' experiences to broaden sector coverage and ensure policy consistency and transparency. Regional ETS were able to stabilize emissions with little cost, providing rationale for rapidly developing economies to adopt such systems. Key policy insights Despite being unlinked, regional ETS pilots delivered substantial climate mitigation and local air pollution reduction in China. Policy effects were initially driven by economy-wide mitigation due to policy expectations, followed by ETS-sector mitigation due to carbon pricing. Industries reduced CO2 emissions from energy efficiency improvements and fuel switch. Mitigation was accompanied by little emission leakage or impairment to the economy. Extrapolating mitigation rates in a national market suggests 18%–20% reduction of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High transition costs remain a major barrier to deeply decarbonizing sectors such as transport in many developing countries. Choice of mode and complementary policies are critical to shaping the costs of climate mitigation in the transport sector. This paper investigates the potentials offered by combined technological and behavioural changes stimulated by strategic infrastructure deployment that can facilitate decarbonization of transport in China. Our study is carried out using IMACLIM-R, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model, which includes a detailed representation of transport dynamics by incorporating the behavioural determinants of mobility in a standard transport modelling framework. More specifically, this behavioural representation considers (i) the spatial organization of residential dwellings and industrial production, (ii) modal shift induced by transport infrastructure deployment and (iii) the intensity of freight transport production and distribution processes. It is found that supplementing carbon pricing with behavioural measures and a decoupling of economic activity from mobility needs can efficiently promote a modal shift towards low-carbon transport modes and reallocate the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts. This in turn would significantly reduce the macro-economic impacts of deeply decarbonizing Chinese transport activities over the next decades. Complementary policies should focus on infrastructure, fiscal incentives, land-use, building regulations and other policies affecting the ways urban activities are distributed within the city's boundary, along with industrial policies and other regulations that affect where firms choose to locate. Key policy insights To decarbonize China's transport sector an integrated approach is needed due to strong inertia and distributional effects. Complementary policies have to focus on transport infrastructure, fiscal incentives, land-use and building regulations, as well as spatial organization. Transport-related climate policies interconnect with the ways in which urban activities are distributed within the city's boundary, but also with industrial policies and other regulations that affect where firms choose to locate. A suite of policy instruments is required, including larger institutional incentives and greater financial leverage supporting innovations in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The per capita CO2 emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO2 emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy. Key policy insights Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO2 emissions. The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect. Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to submit long-term low greenhouse gas emissions development strategies. Such strategies will merge emissions goals with socio-economic objectives and enable countries to increase their ambition over time, thus offering an opportunity to close the gap between the current emissions trajectory and the Agreement’s ‘well below 2°C’ target. China is in the process of preparing its own long-term strategy. We argue in this article that non-CO2 greenhouse gases (NCGGs) should be an essential component of China’s long-term low-emissions strategy. To incorporate NCGGs into China’s long-term low-emissions development strategy, key scientific and institutional challenges should be addressed, such as uncertainty about the accuracy of NCGG emissions inventories; uncertainty about future projections of NCGG emissions; and institutional coordination deficits and imbalanced policy approaches. Overcoming these barriers will have significant implications for climate change mitigation and can open a path for the development of concrete follow-up actions. Key policy insights Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (NCGGs) make up around 17% of China’s GHG emissions, but China has no quantified target to limit or reduce these gases. NCGG emissions mitigation should be an essential component of China's long-term low-emissions strategy, which is currently under development. Considerable uncertainty exists over both historical NCGG emissions data and forecasts. This poses challenges to developing a comprehensive multi-gas strategy. Institutional challenges must also be addressed, such as fragmentation of responsibility for NCGGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article disaggregates the often complex, hierarchical and still-evolving structure of China’s climate governance into three dimensions: the state, the market and civil society. The three dimensions are not exclusive of each other but overlap in many important respects, and their roles and relative levels of importance in China’s climate governance have changed over time. The state determines the blueprint of all climate change policies and management, reflecting an essential condition of China’s political economy and public administration. It sets overall targets and goals, and also acts as a supervising framework, sometimes enabling, at other times constraining, the activities of the market and civil society. The latter two dimensions, however, have become more important in recent years. Market-based policies, particularly emissions trading systems, are becoming an important tool for emissions control. Civil society has also begun to play a more active role in climate governance, an indication of which is the growing number of environmental NGOs, and their growing collaboration with international counterparts. All three dimensions and the ways in which they overlap will remain crucial to climate governance in China into the foreseeable future. Key policy insights As the world’s largest GHG emitter, China faces increasing pressure to control its emissions and shift to a low-carbon economy. This pressure is both international and domestic, reflecting China’s central role in global mitigation efforts, as well as the growing demand by citizens for better environmental conditions. In the period after the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, the evolution of China’s climate governance - with corresponding shifts in the roles of state, market and civil society - will continue to have significant implications for the global effort to combat climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stakeholder participation is recognized as a key principle for effective climate governance. Climate mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), REDD+, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) provide guidelines for local stakeholder consultation (LSC). However, little empirical research exists on how LSC is practised, and synergies between climate mechanisms are largely unexplored. This study explores how international LSC rules are practised at national and local levels. It aims to better shape future LSC in climate mechanisms by learning from the case of China. First, LSC policies in CDM, REDD+, and GCF are identified. Relevant rules in China's local policies are analysed. To understand the interaction between CDM policies and China's local LSC rules, a selection of Chinese CDM Projects Design Documents (PDDs) are analysed, providing an overall impression of the stakeholder process and results. Afterwards, we focus on a single case for an in-depth understanding of LSC in practice. Results point to the weakness of current CDM LSC rules and lack of good practice guidance, e.g. regarding who to consult, what approaches to be used, and when and how consultations shall take place. It also points to the lack of a clear relationship between global CDM policies and national LSC rules. The weaknesses of existing CDM LSC practices and procedures are not unique to the China case but are relevant to other countries and climate mechanisms. REDD+ and GCF provide good examples of LSC rules, where CDM can learn, share experiences, and explore synergies for future revisions. Policy relevance Contributing to the debate on public participation and effective climate governance related to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 6, this study examines stakeholder participation in the CDM and explores synergies with other mitigation mechanisms such as REDD+ and the GCF. Stakeholder participation in China is investigated to present realities on the ground. It points out the lack of detailed guidelines and provides insights into how national regulations and cultural practice take precedence over international CDM rules. The findings point to proposals for improving international regulations on stakeholder participation in the CDM and beyond for a stronger framework across climate governance mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO2 emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO2 emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO2 emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved. Policy relevance In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries' emissions target up to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]