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Establishing accurate chronological frameworks is imperative for reliably identifying lead–lag dynamics within the climate system and enabling meaningful intercomparisons across diverse paleoclimate proxy records over long time periods. Robust age models provide a solid temporal foundation for establishing correlations between paleoclimate records. One of the primary challenges in constructing reliable radiocarbon-based chronologies in the marine environment is to determine the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age correction. Calculations of the local marine reservoir effect (ΔR) can be acquired using independent 14C dating methods, such as synchronization with other well-dated archives. The cosmogenic radionuclide 10Be offers such a synchronization tool. Its atmospheric production rate is controlled by the global changes in the cosmic ray influx, caused by variations in solar activity and geomagnetic field strength. The resulting fluctuations in the meteoric deposition of 10Be are preserved in sediments and ice cores and can thus be utilized for their synchronization. In this study, for the first time, we use the authigenic 10Be/9Be record of a Laptev Sea sediment core for the period 8–14 kyr BP and synchronize it with the 10Be records from absolutely dated ice cores. Based on the resulting absolute chronology, a benthic ΔR value of + 345 ± 60 14Cyears was estimated for the Laptev Sea, which corresponds to a marine reservoir age of 848 ± 90 14Cyears. The ΔR value was used to refine the age–depth model for core PS2458-4, establishing it as a potential reference chronology for the Laptev Sea. We also compare the calculated ΔR value with modern estimates from the literature and discuss its implications for the age–depth model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopes recorded in Antarctic ice cores have traditionally been used to infer past surface air temperatures (SATs). During the historical period (1850 onward), observational data and good-quality ice core records overlap, yielding an opportunity to investigate key relationships between ice core stable water isotope (δ18 O) measurements and the Antarctic climate. We present a new ensemble of climate model simulations covering 1851–2004 using the UK Met Office HadCM3 general circulation model equipped with stable water isotopes. Our ensemble captures observed historical SAT and precipitation trends and weak δ18 O trends. The weak δ18 O trends mean there is no significant relationship between SAT and δ18 O over one-third of Antarctica, and also half of our considered ice core sites, though relationships are stronger when using regional averages. The strongest regional relationships occur in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) region. This decoupling between SAT and δ18 O occurs primarily because of the impact of autumnal sea ice loss during the simulated warming. The warming and sea ice loss are associated with (i) changes in near-coastal air mass intrusions (synoptic effects) induced by changes in the large-scale circulation and/or sea ice; (ii) direct sea-ice-driven changes in moisture pathways (especially lengths) to Antarctica; and (iii) precipitation seasonality changes, again mostly driven by sea ice changes. Consequently, when reconstructing temperatures over these timescales, changes in sea ice need to be considered, both to determine the most appropriate SAT and δ18 O relationship and to understand how uncertainties affect the inference of past temperature from ice core δ18 O measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), ca. 1200–800 000 years ago (ka), the Earth's glacial cycles changed from 41 to 100 kyr periodicity. The emergence of this longer ice age periodicity was accompanied by higher global ice volume in glacial periods and lower global ice volume in interglacial periods. Since there is no known change in external orbital forcing across the MPT, it is generally agreed that the cause of this transition is internal to the Earth system. Resolving the climate, carbon cycle, and cryosphere processes responsible for the MPT remains a major challenge in Earth and palaeoclimate science. To address this challenge, the international ice core community has prioritised recovery of an ice core record spanning the MPT interval. Here we present results from a simple generalised least-squares (GLS) model that predicts atmospheric CO2 out to 1.8 Myr. Our prediction utilises existing records of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from Antarctic ice cores spanning the past 800 kyr along with the existing LR04 benthic δ18Ocalcite stack (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005; hereafter "benthic δ18O stack") from marine sediment cores. Our predictions assume that the relationship between CO2 and benthic δ18O over the past 800 000 years can be extended over the last 1.5 million years. The implicit null hypothesis is that there has been no fundamental change in feedbacks between atmospheric CO2 and the climate parameters represented by benthic δ18O , global ice volume, and ocean temperature. We test the GLS-model-predicted CO2 concentrations against observed blue ice CO2 concentrations, δ11B -based CO2 reconstructions from marine sediment cores, and δ13C of leaf-wax-based CO2 reconstructions (Higgins et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2019; Yamamoto et al., 2022). We show that there is no clear evidence from the existing blue ice or proxy CO2 data to reject our predictions or our associated null hypothesis. A definitive test and/or rejection of the null hypothesis may be provided following recovery and analysis of continuous oldest ice core records from Antarctica, which are still several years away. The record presented here should provide a useful comparison for the oldest ice core records and an opportunity for further constraints on the processes involved in the MPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events occurred throughout the last glacial period. Greenland ice cores show a rapid warming during each stadial to interstadial transition, alongside an abrupt loss of sea ice and a major reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. Other records also indicate simultaneous abrupt changes to the oceanic circulation. Recently, an advanced Bayesian ramp-fitting method has been developed and used to investigate time lags between transitions in these different climate elements with a view to determining the relative order of these changes. Here, we critically review this method in both its original implementation and a new, extended implementation. Using ice core data, climate model output, and carefully synthesised data representing DO events, we demonstrate that both implementations of the method suffer from biases of up to 15 years. These biases mean that the method will tend to yield transition onsets that are too early. Further investigation of DO warming event records in climate models and ice core data reveals that the biases are on the same order of magnitude as potential timing differences between the abrupt transitions of different climate elements. Additionally, we find that higher-resolution records would not reduce these biases. We conclude that decadal-scale leads and lags between climate elements across DO events cannot be reliably detected, as we cannot exclude the possibility that they result solely from the biases we present here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To extract climatically relevant chemical signals from the deepest, oldest Antarctic ice, we must first investigate the degree to which chemical ions diffuse within solid ice. Volcanic sulfate peaks are an ideal target for such an investigation because they are high-amplitude, short-duration (∼3 years) events with a quasi-uniform structure. Here we present an analysis of the EPICA Dome C sulfate record over the last 450 kyr. We identify volcanic peaks and isolate them from the non-sea-salt sulfate background to reveal the effects of diffusion: amplitude damping and broadening of peaks in the time domain with increasing depth and age. Sulfate peak shape is also altered by the thinning of ice layers with depth that results from ice flow. Both processes must be simulated to derive effective diffusion rates. This is achieved by running a forward model to diffuse idealised sulfate peaks at different rates while also accounting for ice thinning. Our simulations suggest a median effective diffusion rate of sulfate ions of 2.4±1.7×10-7 m 2 yr -1 in Holocene ice, slightly faster than suggested by previous work. The effective diffusion rate observed in deeper ice is significantly lower, and Holocene ice shows the highest rate of the last 450 kyr. Beyond the Holocene, there is no systematic difference between the effective diffusion rates of glacial and interglacial periods despite variations in soluble ion concentrations, dust loading, and ice grain radii. Effective diffusion rates for 40 to 200 ka are relatively constant and of the order 1×10-8 m 2 yr -1. Our results suggest that the diffusion of sulfate ions within volcanic peaks is relatively fast initially, perhaps through an interconnected vein network, but slows significantly after 40 kyr. In the absence of clear evidence for a controlling influence of temperature on sulfate diffusivity with depth and age, we hypothesise that the rapid decrease in effective diffusion rate from the time of deposition to ice of 50 ka age may be due to a switch in the mechanism of diffusion resulting from the changing location of sulfate ions within the ice microstructure and/or interconnectedness of veins and grain boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the atmosphere with links to terrestrial and oceanic productivity. We measured COS in ice core air from an intermediate-depth ice core from the South Pole using both dry and wet extraction methods, recovering a 52 500-year record. We find evidence for COS production in the firn, altering the atmospheric signal preserved in the ice core. Mean sea salt aerosol concentrations from the same depth are a good proxy for the COS production, which disproportionately impacts the measurements from glacial period ice with high sea salt aerosol concentrations. The COS measurements are corrected using sea salt sodium (ssNa) as a proxy for the excess COS resulting from the production. The ssNa-corrected COS record displays substantially less COS in the glacial period atmosphere than the Holocene and a 2 to 4-fold COS rise during the deglaciation synchronous with the associated climate signal. The deglacial COS rise was primarily source driven. Oceanic emissions in the form of COS, carbon disulfide (CS2), and dimethylsulfide (DMS) are collectively the largest natural source of atmospheric COS. A large increase in ocean COS emissions during the deglaciation suggests enhancements in emissions of ocean sulfur gases via processes that involve ocean productivity, although we cannot quantify individual contributions from each gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 23 000 to 19 000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ∼ 38 to 55° S. Existing paleoclimate evidence – mostly derived from glacial landforms – suggests that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation and its major drivers. Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM. We assess the skill of paleoclimate model products in reproducing the range of atmospheric conditions needed to enable an ice sheet growth in concordance with geomorphological and geochronological evidence. The resulting best-fit climate product is then combined with records from southern South America offshore sediment cores and Antarctic ice cores to drive transient simulations throughout the last 70 ka using a glacial index approach. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on near-surface air temperature forcing. Most ensemble members underestimate the ice cover in the northern part of Patagonia, while tending to expand beyond its constrained eastern boundaries. We largely attribute these discrepancies between the model-based ice geometries and geological evidence to the low resolution of paleoclimate models and their prescribed ice mask. In the southernmost sector, evidence suggests full glacial conditions during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3, ∼ 59 400 to 27 800 years ago), followed by a warming trend towards MIS2 (∼ 27 800 to 14 700 years ago). However, in northern Patagonia, this deglacial trend is absent, indicating a relatively consistent signal throughout MIS3 and MIS2. Notably, Antarctic cores do not reflect a glacial history consistent with the geochronological observations. Therefore, investigations of the glacial history of the PIS should take into account southern midlatitude records to capture effectively its past climatic variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous ice core record extends 800 000 years into the past, covering the period of 100 000-year glacial cycles but not the transition from 40 000-year glacial cycles (the mid-Pleistocene transition, 1.2–0.7 million years ago). A primary goal of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences is therefore to retrieve a 1.5-million-year-old continuous ice core, increasing our understanding of this major change in the climate system and thus of fundamental climate forcings and feedbacks. However, complex glacial processes, limited bedrock data, and young basal ice in previous cores necessitate careful reconnaissance studies before extracting a full core. Ice borehole optical logging reflects the ice dust content and may be used to date ice quickly and inexpensively if a reference record is known. Here we explore the relationship between ice dust records and well-dated marine dust records from sediment cores in the southern Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which lie along paths of dust sources to Antarctica. We evaluate how representative these records are of Antarctic dust both through the existing ice core record and during the older target age range, suggesting that a newly published 1.5-million-year record from Site U1537 near South America is likely the most robust predictor of the Oldest Ice dust signal. We then assess procedures for rapid dating of potential Oldest Ice sites, noting that the ability to detect dating errors is an essential feature. We emphasize that ongoing efforts to identify, recover, date, and interpret an Oldest Ice core should use care to avoid unfounded assumptions about the 40 kyr world based on the 100 kyr world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale during the last glacial period. The transfer functions were estimated using an automated algorithm for Bayesian inversion that allows inferring a continuous and objective synchronization between Greenland ice-core and East Asian summer monsoon speleothem data, and a total of three transfer functions were inferred using independent ice-core records. The algorithm is based on an alignment model that considers prior knowledge of the GICC05 counting error but also samples synchronization scenarios that exceed the differential dating uncertainty of the annual-layer count in ice cores, which are currently hard to detect using conventional alignment techniques. The transfer functions are on average 48 % more precise than previous estimates and significantly reduce the absolute dating uncertainty of the GICC05 back to 48 kyr ago. The results reveal that GICCC05 is, on average, systematically younger than the U–Th timescale by 0.86 %. However, they also highlight that the annual-layer counting error is not strictly correlated over extended periods of time and that within the coldest Greenland Stadials the differential dating uncertainty is likely underestimated by up to ∼13 %. Importantly, the analysis implies for the first time that during the Last Glacial Maximum GICC05 may overcount ice layers by ∼10 % – a bias possibly attributable to a higher frequency of sub-annual layers due to changes in the seasonal cycle of precipitation and mode of dust deposition to the Greenland Ice Sheet. The new timescale transfer functions provide important constraints on the uncertainty surrounding the stratigraphic dating of the Greenland age scale and enable an improved chronological integration of ice cores as well as U–Th-dated and radiocarbon-dated paleoclimate records on a common timeline. The transfer functions are available as a Supplement to this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal temperature reconstructions from ice cores are missing over glacial–interglacial timescales, preventing a good understanding of the driving factors of Antarctic past climate changes. Here the total air content (TAC) record from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core is analyzed over the last 440 ka (thousand years). While the water isotopic record, a tracer for annual mean surface temperature, exhibits a dominant ∼100 kyr cyclicity, the TAC record is associated with a dominant ∼40 kyr cyclicity. Our results show that the TAC record is anti-correlated with the mean insolation over the local astronomical summer half-year. They also show for the first time that it is highly anti-correlated with local summer temperature simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We propose that (1) the local summer insolation controls the local summer temperature; (2) the latter, through the development of temperature gradients at the near-surface of the ice sheet (<2 m), is affecting the surface snow structure; and (3) those snow structure changes propagating down to the bottom of the firn through densification are eventually controlling the pore volume at the bubble close-off and consequently the TAC. Hence, our results suggest that the EDC TAC record could be used as a proxy for local summer temperature changes. Also, our new simulations show that the mean insolation over the local astronomical summer half-year is the primary driver of Antarctic summer surface temperature variations, while changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheet configurations play a more important role in Antarctic annual surface temperature changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the framework of the Isotopic Constraints on Past Ozone Layer in Polar Ice (ISOL-ICE) project, we present initial ice core results from the new ISOL-ICE ice core covering the last millennium from high-elevation Dronning Maud Land (DML) and discuss the implications for interpreting the stable isotopic composition of nitrogen in ice core nitrate (δ15 N(NO 3-)) as a surface ultra-violet radiation (UV) and total column ozone (TCO) proxy. In the quest to derive TCO using δ15 N(NO 3-), an understanding of past snow accumulation changes, as well as aerosol source regions and present-day drivers of their variability, is required. We therefore report here the ice core age–depth model, the snow accumulation and ice chemistry records, and correlation analysis of these records with climate variables over the observational era (1979–2016). The ISOL-ICE ice core covers the last 1349 years from 668 to 2017 CE ± 3 years, extending previous ice core records from the region by 2 decades towards the present and shows excellent reproducibility with those records. The extended ISOL-ICE record of last 2 decades showed a continuation of the methane sulfonate (MSA -) increase from ∼ 1800 to present while there were less frequent large deposition events of sea salts relative to the last millennium. While our chemical data do not allow us to distinguish the ultimate (sea ice or the open ocean) source of sea salt aerosols in DML winter aerosol, our correlation analysis clearly suggests that it is mainly the variability in atmospheric transport and not the sea ice extent that explains the interannual variability in sea salt concentrations in DML. Correlation of the snow accumulation record with climate variables over the observational era showed that precipitation at ISOL-ICE is predominately derived from the South Atlantic with onshore winds delivering marine air masses to the site. The snow accumulation rate was stable over the last millennium with no notable trends over the last 2 decades relative to the last millennium. Interannual variability in the accumulation record, ranging between 2 and 20 cm a -1 (w.e.), would influence the ice core δ15 N(NO 3-) record. The mean snow accumulation rate of 6.5±2.4 cm a -1 (w.e.) falls within the range suitable for reconstructing surface mass balance from ice core δ15 N(NO 3-), highlighting that the ISOL-ICE ice core δ15 N(NO 3-) can be used to reconstruct either the surface mass balance or surface UV if the ice core δ15 N(NO 3-) is corrected for the snow accumulation influence, thereby leaving the UV imprint in the δ15 N(NO 3-) ice core record to quantify natural ozone variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate reconstructions of the last millennium rely on networks of high-resolution and well-dated proxy records. This study presents age-at-depth data and preliminary results from the new Mount Brown South (MBS) ice cores, collected at an elevation of 2084 m on the boundary of Princess Elizabeth Land and Kaiser Wilhelm II Land in East Antarctica. We show an initial analysis of the site meteorology, mean annual chemical species concentrations and seasonal cycles, including the identification of a seasonal cycle in fluoride concentrations. The annually resolved chronologies were developed from the chemistry data using a site-specific layer-counting methodology that employed seasonally varying trace chemical species and stable water isotopic ratios, combined with alignment to known volcanic horizons. The uncertainty in the determination of annual horizons via layer counting was also quantified. The chronologies developed include the "Main" 295 m record spanning 1137 years (873–2009 CE) and three surface cores spanning the most recent 39–52 years up to the surface age at the time of drilling (austral summer 2017/2018). Mean annual trace chemical concentrations are compared to the Law Dome ice core (located 1130 km east of the Mount Brown South site) and discussed in terms of atmospheric transport. The MBS chronologies presented here – named MBS2023 – will underpin the development of new palaeoclimate records spanning the past millennium from this under-represented region of East Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mt Samalas eruption, thought to have occurred in summer 1257, ranks as one of the most explosive sulfur-rich eruptions of the Common Era. Despite recent convergence, several dates have been proposed for the eruption ranging between 1256–1258, with, as of yet, no single combination of evidence that has been able to robustly distinguish between and exclude the other dates proposed for the Mt Samalas eruption. Widespread surface cooling and hydroclimate perturbations following the eruption have been invoked as contributing to a host of 13th century social and economic crises, although regional-scale variability in the post-eruption climate response remains uncertain. In this study we run ensemble simulations using the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) with a range of eruption scenarios and initial conditions in order to compare our simulations with the most complete globally resolved multi-proxy database for the Mt Samalas eruption to date, incorporating tree rings, ice cores, and historical records. This allows more precise constraints to be placed on the year and season of the Mt Samalas eruption, as well as an investigation into the regionally heterogeneous post-eruption climate response. Using a multi-proxy to model comparison, we are able to robustly distinguish between July 1257 and January 1258 eruption scenarios, where the July 1257 ensemble simulation achieves considerably better agreement with spatially averaged and regionally resolved proxy surface temperature reconstructions. These reconstructions suggest the onset of significant cooling across Asia and Europe in 1258 and thus support the plausibility of previously inferred historical connections. Model-simulated temperature anomalies also point to severe surface cooling across the Southern Hemisphere with as of yet unexplored historical implications for impacted civilisations. Model simulations of polar sulfate deposition also reveal distinct differences in the timing of ice sheet deposition between the two simulated eruption dates, although comparison of the magnitude or asymmetric deposition of sulfate aerosol remains limited by large inter-model differences and complex intra-model dependencies. Overall, the multi-proxy to model comparison employed in this study has strong potential in constraining similar uncertainties in eruption source parameters for other historical eruptions for which sufficient coincident proxy records are available, although care is needed to avoid the pitfalls of model–multi-proxy comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory experiments showed that the isotopic fractionation of δ13 C and of δ18 O during calcite formation of planktic foraminifera are species-specific functions of ambient CO 32- concentration. This effect became known as the carbonate ion effect (CIE), whose role for the interpretation of marine sediment data will be investigated here in an in-depth analysis of the 13 C cycle. For this investigation, we constructed new 160 kyr long mono-specific stacks of changes in both δ13 C and δ18 O from either the planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (rub) or Trilobatus sacculifer (sac) from 112 and 40 marine records, respectively, from the wider tropics (latitudes below 38°). Both mono-specific time series Δ(δ13Crub) and Δ(δ13Csac) are very similar to each other, and a linear regression through a scatter plot of both data sets has a slope of ∼ 0.99 – although the laboratory-based CIE for both species differs by a factor of nearly 2, implying that they should record distinctly different changes in δ13C , if we accept that the carbonate ion concentration changes on glacial–interglacial timescales. For a deeper understanding of the 13 C cycle, we use the Solid Earth version of the Box model of the Isotopic Carbon cYCLE (BICYLE-SE) to calculate how surface-ocean CO 32- should have varied over time in order to be able to calculate the potential offsets which would by caused by the CIE quantified in culture experiments. Our simulations are forced with atmospheric reconstructions of CO 2 and δ13 CO 2 derived from ice cores to obtain a carbon cycle which should at least at the surface ocean be as close as possible to expected conditions and which in the deep ocean largely agrees with the carbon isotope ratio of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), δ13CDIC , as reconstructed from benthic foraminifera. We find that both Δ(δ13Crub) and Δ(δ13Csac) agree better with changes in simulated δ13CDIC when ignoring the CIE than those time series which were corrected for the CIE. The combination of data- and model-based evidence for the lack of a role for the CIE in Δ(δ13Crub) and Δ(δ13Csac) suggests that the CIE as measured in laboratory experiments is not directly transferable to the interpretation of marine sediment records. The much smaller CIE-to-glacial–interglacial-signal ratio in foraminifera δ18 O, when compared to δ13 C, prevents us from drawing robust conclusions on the role of the CIE in δ18 O as recorded in the hard shells of both species. However, theories propose that the CIE in both δ13 C and δ18 O depends on the pH in the surrounding water, suggesting that the CIE should be detectable in neither or both of the isotopes. Whether this lack of role of the CIE in the interpretation of planktic paleo-data is a general feature or is restricted to the two species investigated here needs to be checked with further data from other planktic foraminiferal species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Millennial-scale climate variations during the last glacial period, such as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles and Heinrich events, have been extensively studied using ice core and marine proxy records. However, there is a limited understanding of the magnitude of these temperature fluctuations in continental regions, and questions remain about the seasonal signal of these climate events. This study presents a 60 000-year-long temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) extracted from lake sediments from the Eifel Volcanic Field, Germany. brGDGTs are bacterial membrane-spanning lipids that are known to have a strong relationship with temperature, making them suitable for temperature reconstructions. We test several temperature calibration models on modern samples taken from soils and multiple maar lakes. We find a negative bias in brGDGT-based temperature estimates associated with water depth and anoxic conditions that can be corrected for by accounting for a brGDGT isomer that is only produced in anoxic conditions. The corrected temperature reconstruction correlates with proxy and climate model estimates of temperature spanning the same time period, validating the calibration approach we selected. However, millennial-scale variability is significantly dampened in the brGDGT record, and in contrast to other Northern Hemisphere climate records, during several Heinrich stadials, temperatures actually increase. We demonstrate that these apparent discrepancies can be explained by the unique seasonal response of the brGDGT paleothermometer to temperatures of months above freezing (TMAF). Our data support the view that warm-season temperatures in Europe varied minimally during the last glacial period and that abrupt millennial-scale events were defined by colder, longer winters. Our continuous high-resolution temperature reconstruction provides important information about the magnitude of seasonal climate variability during the last glacial period that can be used to test climate models and inform studies of paleoecological change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given growing concerns about climate tipping points and their risks, it is important to investigate the capability of identifying robust precursor signals for the associated transitions. In general, the variance and short-lag autocorrelations of the fluctuations increase in a stochastically forced system approaching a critical or bifurcation-induced transition, making them theoretically suitable indicators to warn of such transitions. Paleoclimate records provide useful test beds if such a warning of a forthcoming transition could work in practice. The Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are characterized by millennial-scale abrupt climate changes during the glacial period, manifesting most clearly as abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region. Some previous studies have found such statistical precursor signals for the DO warming transitions. On the other hand, statistical precursor signals for the abrupt DO cooling transitions have not been identified. Analyzing Greenland ice core records, we find robust and statistically significant precursor signals of DO cooling transitions in most of the interstadials longer than roughly 1500 years but not in the shorter interstadials. The origin of the statistical precursor signals is mainly related to so-called rebound events, humps in the temperature observed at the end of interstadial, some decades to centuries prior to the actual transition. We discuss several dynamical mechanisms that give rise to such rebound events and statistical precursor signals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception using the Earth system model CLIMBER-X with dynamic vegetation, interactive ice sheets, and visco-elastic solid Earth responses. The simulations are initialized at the middle of the Eemian interglacial (125 kiloyears before present, ka) and run until 100 ka , driven by prescribed changes in Earth's orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations from ice core data. CLIMBER-X simulates a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area through MIS5d, with ice sheets expanding over northern North America and Scandinavia, in broad agreement with proxy reconstructions. While most of the increase in ice sheet area occurs over a relatively short period between 119 and 117 ka , the larger part of the increase in ice volume occurs afterwards with an almost constant ice sheet extent. We show that the vegetation feedback plays a fundamental role in controlling the ice sheet expansion during the last glacial inception. In particular, with prescribed present-day vegetation the model simulates a global sea level drop of only ∼ 20 m , compared with the ∼ 35 m decrease in sea level with dynamic vegetation response. The ice sheet and carbon cycle feedbacks play only a minor role during the ice sheet expansion phase prior to ∼ 115 ka but are important in limiting the deglaciation during the following phase characterized by increasing summer insolation. The model results are sensitive to climate model biases and to the parameterization of snow albedo, while they show only a weak dependence on changes in the ice sheet model resolution and the acceleration factor used to speed up the climate component. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate–vegetation–cryosphere feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states characterizing Quaternary glacial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deposition of sulfuric acid in ice cores is important both for understanding past volcanic activity and for synchronizing ice core timescales. Sulfuric acid has a low eutectic point, so it can potentially exist in liquid at grain boundaries and veins, accelerating chemical diffusion. A high effective diffusivity would allow post-depositional diffusion to obscure the climate history and the peak matching among older portions of ice cores. Here, we use records of sulfate from the European Project of Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C (EDC) ice core to estimate the effective diffusivity of sulfuric acid in ice. We focus on EDC because multiple glacial–interglacial cycles are preserved, allowing analysis for long timescales and deposition in similar climates. We calculate the mean concentration gradient and the width of prominent volcanic events, and analyze the evolution of each with depth and age. We find the effective diffusivities for interglacial and glacial maximums to be 5±3×10-9 m 2 a -1 , an order of magnitude lower than a previous estimate derived from the Holocene portion of EDC (Barnes et al., 2003). The effective diffusivity may be even smaller if the bias from artificial smoothing from the sampling is accounted for. Effective diffusivity is not obviously affected by the ice temperature until about -10 ∘ C, 3000 m depth, which is also where anomalous sulfate peaks begin to be observed (Traversi et al., 2009). Low effective diffusivity suggests that sulfuric acid is not readily diffusing in liquid-like veins in the upper portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and that records may be preserved in deep, old ice if the ice temperature remains well below the pressure melting point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we present a seasonally resolved accumulation record spanning from 1750 to 2009 Common Era (CE), based on a 181.8 m ice core obtained from the Elbrus Western Plateau in the Caucasus. We implemented various methods to account for uncertainties associated with glacier flow, layer thinning, and dating. Additionally, we applied a novel approach to calculate a seasonal calendar for meteorological data, enabling comparison with ice core records. The reconstructed accumulation data were compared with available meteorological data, gridded precipitation records, and paleo-reanalysis data. Reconstructed accumulation is representative for a large region south of the Eastern European plain and Black Sea region with summer precipitation being the primary driver of precipitation variability. We identified a statistically significant relationship between changes in regional precipitation and fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which is, however, not stable over the entire period covered by the ice core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boron isotopes in planktonic foraminifera are a widely used proxy to determine ancient surface seawater pH and by extension atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate forcing on geological timescales. Yet, to reconstruct absolute values for pH and CO 2 , we require a δ11 B foram-borate to pH calibration and independent determinations of ocean temperature, salinity, a second carbonate parameter, and the boron isotope composition of seawater. Although δ11 B-derived records of atmospheric CO 2 have been shown to perform well against ice-core-based CO 2 reconstructions, these tests have been performed at only a few locations and with limited temporal resolution. Here we present two highly resolved CO 2 records for the late Pleistocene from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 999 and 871. Our δ11 B-derived CO 2 record shows a very good agreement with the ice core CO 2 record with an average offset of 13±46 (2σ) and an RMSE of 26 ppm, with minor short-lived overestimations of CO 2 (of up to ∼50 ppm) occurring during some glacial onsets. We explore potential drivers of this disagreement and conclude that partial dissolution of foraminifera has a minimal effect on the CO 2 offset. We also observe that the general agreement between δ11 B-derived and ice core CO 2 is improved by optimising the δ11 B foram-borate calibration. Despite these minor issues, a strong linear relationship between relative change in climate forcing from CO 2 (from ice core data) and pH change (from δ11 B) exists over the late Pleistocene, confirming that pH change is a robust proxy of climate forcing over relatively short (<1 million year) intervals. Overall, these findings demonstrate that the boron isotope proxy is a reliable indicator of CO 2 beyond the reach of the ice cores and can help improve determinations of climate sensitivity for ancient time intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

10 Be is produced by the interaction between galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) with the Earth's atmospheric constituents. The flux of GCRs is modulated by the varying strength of the magnetic fields of the Earth and the Sun. Measurement of 10 Be concentrations from polar ice cores is thus a valuable tool to reconstruct the variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity levels. The interpretation of 10 Be records is, however, complicated by non-production-related effects on the 10 Be deposition rate caused by climate- or weather-induced variability. Furthermore, volcanic eruptions have been proposed to lead to short-term 10 Be deposition enhancements. In this study, we test the use of excess meltwater from continuous flow analysis (CFA) to measure 10 Be, allowing less time-consuming and more cost-effective sample preparation. We compare two records obtained from CFA and discrete samples from the East Greenland Ice core Project (EGRIP) S6 firn core, reaching back to 1900 CE. We find that the two records agree well and that the 10 Be record from CFA samples agrees as well as the discrete samples with other records from Greenland. Furthermore, by subtracting the theoretically expected GCR-induced signal, we investigate the high-frequency variability in the 10 Be records from Greenland and Antarctica after 1951 CE, focusing on SEP events and volcanic eruptions. Finally, we use the 10 Be records from Greenland and Antarctica to study the 11-year solar cycles, allowing us to assess the suitability of the CFA samples for the reconstruction of solar activity. This result opens new opportunities for the collection of continuous 10 Be records with less time-consuming sample preparation, while saving an important portion of the ice cores for other measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a naturally occurring atmospheric trace gas, a regulated pollutant, and one of the main components determining the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. Evaluating climate–chemistry models under different conditions than today and constraining past CO sources requires a reliable record of atmospheric CO mixing ratios ([CO]) that includes data since preindustrial times. Here, we report the first continuous record of atmospheric [CO] for Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes over the past 3 millennia. Our continuous record is a composite of three high-resolution Antarctic ice core gas records and firn air measurements from seven Antarctic locations. The ice core gas [CO] records were measured by continuous flow analysis (CFA), using an optical feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectrometer (OF-CEAS), achieving excellent external precision (2.8–8.8 ppb; 2σ) and consistently low blanks (ranging from 4.1±1.2 to 7.4±1.4 ppb), thus enabling paleo-atmospheric interpretations. Six new firn air [CO] Antarctic datasets collected between 1993 and 2016 CE at the DE08-2, DSSW19K, DSSW20K, South Pole, Aurora Basin North (ABN), and Lock-In sites (and one previously published firn CO dataset at Berkner) were used to reconstruct the atmospheric history of CO from ∼1897 CE, using inverse modeling that incorporates the influence of gas transport in firn. Excellent consistency was observed between the youngest ice core gas [CO] and the [CO] from the base of the firn and between the recent firn [CO] and atmospheric [CO] measurements at Mawson station (eastern Antarctica), yielding a consistent and contiguous record of CO across these different archives. Our Antarctic [CO] record is relatively stable from -835 to 1500 CE, with mixing ratios within a 30–45 ppb range (2 σ). There is a ∼5 ppb decrease in [CO] to a minimum at around 1700 CE during the Little Ice Age. CO mixing ratios then increase over time to reach a maximum of ∼54 ppb by ∼1985 CE. Most of the industrial period [CO] growth occurred between about 1940 to 1985 CE, after which there was an overall [CO] decrease, as observed in Greenland firn air and later at atmospheric monitoring sites and attributed partly to reduced CO emissions from combustion sources. Our Antarctic ice core gas CO observations differ from previously published records in two key aspects. First, our mixing ratios are significantly lower than reported previously, suggesting that previous studies underestimated blank contributions. Second, our new CO record does not show a maximum in the late 1800s. The absence of a [CO] peak around the turn of the century argues against there being a peak in Southern Hemisphere biomass burning at this time, which is in agreement with (i) other paleofire proxies such as ethane or acetylene and (ii) conclusions reached by paleofire modeling. The combined ice core and firn air [CO] history, spanning -835 to 1992 CE, extended to the present by the Mawson atmospheric record, provides a useful benchmark for future atmospheric chemistry modeling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C (EDC) ice core drilling in East Antarctica reaches a depth of 3260 m. The reference EDC chronology, the AICC2012 (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012), provides an age vs. depth relationship covering the last 800 kyr (thousands of years), with an absolute uncertainty rising up to 8000 years at the bottom of the ice core. The origins of this relatively large uncertainty are twofold: (1) the δ18 O atm , δO2/N2 and total air content (TAC) records are poorly resolved and show large gaps over the last 800 kyr, and (2) large uncertainties are associated with their orbital targets. Here, we present new highly resolved δ18 O atm , δO2/N2 and δ15 N measurements for the EDC ice core covering the last five glacial–interglacial transitions; a new low-resolution TAC record over the period 440–800 ka BP (ka: 1000 years before 1950); and novel absolute 81 Kr ages. We have compiled chronological and glaciological information including novel orbital age markers from new data on the EDC ice core as well as accurate firn modeling estimates in a Bayesian dating tool to construct the new AICC2023 chronology. For the first time, three orbital tools are used simultaneously. Hence, it is possible to observe that they are consistent with each other and with the other age markers over most of the last 800 kyr (70 %). This, in turn, gives us confidence in the new AICC2023 chronology. The average uncertainty in the ice chronology is reduced from 1700 to 900 years in AICC2023 over the last 800 kyr (1σ). The new timescale diverges from AICC2012 and suggests age shifts reaching 3800 years towards older ages over marine isotope stages (MISs) 5, 11 and 19. But the coherency between the new AICC2023 timescale and independent chronologies of other archives (Italian Lacustrine succession from Sulmona Basin, Dome Fuji ice core and northern Alpine speleothems) is improved by 1000 to 2000 years over these time intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few ice cores from the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) extend back in time further than a few hundred years. The WAIS is believed to be susceptible to collapse as a result of anthropogenic climate change and may have at least partially collapsed during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Understanding the stability of the WAIS during warm periods such as the LIG and Holocene is important. As part of the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project, the British Antarctic Survey's (BAS) Rapid Access Isotope Drill (RAID) was deployed in 2020 on Sherman Island in the Abbot Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. We drilled a 323 m deep borehole, with discrete samples of ice chippings collected that cover the entire depth range of the drilled ice. The samples were analysed for stable water isotope composition and major ion content at BAS from 2020–2022. Using annual layer counting of chemical records, volcanic horizon identification and ice modelling, an age scale for the record of 1724 discrete samples is presented. The Sherman Island ice record extends back to greater than 1240 years, providing the oldest, continuous ice-derived palaeoclimate records in the coastal Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea sectors to date. We demonstrate the potential for recovery of a complete Holocene climate record from Sherman Island in the future and confidence in the ability of RAID samples to contain sufficiently resolved records for meaningful climatic interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water stable isotope records from ice cores (δ18 O and δ D) are a critical tool for constraining long-term temperature variability at high latitudes. However, precipitation in Antarctica consists of semi-continuous small events and intermittent extreme events. In regions of high accumulation, this can bias ice core records towards recording the synoptic climate conditions present during extreme precipitation events. In this study we utilise a combination of ice core data, reanalysis products, and models to understand how precipitation intermittency impacts the temperature records preserved in an ice core from Mount Brown South in East Antarctica. Extreme precipitation events represent only the largest 10 % of all precipitation events, but they account for 52 % of the total annual snowfall at this site, leading to an overrepresentation of these events in the ice core record. Extreme precipitation events are associated with high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes that cause increased transport of warm and moist air from the southern Indian Ocean to the ice core site. Warm temperatures associated with these events result in a +4.8 ∘ C warm bias in the mean annual temperature when weighted by daily precipitation, and water isotopes in the Mount Brown South ice core are shown to be significantly correlated with local temperature when this precipitation-induced temperature bias is included. The Mount Brown South water isotope record spans more than 1000 years and will provide a valuable regional reconstruction of long-term temperature and hydroclimate variability in the data-sparse southern Indian Ocean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Late Pleistocene, Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles triggered warming events that were as abrupt as the present-day human-induced warming. However, in the absence of a periodic forcing operating on millennial timescales, the main energy sources of DO cycles remain debated. Here, we identify the energy sources of DO cycles by applying a bispectral analysis to the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) oxygen isotope (δ18 O ice) record; a 123 kyr long proxy record of air temperatures (Tair) over Greenland. For both modes of DO cyclicity – slow and fast – we detect disparate energy sources. Slow DO cycles, marked by multi-millennial periodicities in the 12.5 to 2.5 kyr bandwidth, receive energy from astronomical periodicities. Fast DO cycles, characterized by millennial periodicities in the 1.5 ± 0.5 kyr range, receive energy from centennial periodicities. We propose cryospheric and oceanic mechanisms that facilitate the transfer of energy from known sources to slow and fast DO cycles, respectively. Our findings stress the importance of understanding energy-transfer mechanisms across a broad range of timescales to explain the origins of climate cycles without primary periodic energy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable water isotopes in polar ice cores are widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations over several orbital climatic cycles. One way to calibrate the isotope–temperature relationship is to apply the present-day spatial relationship as a surrogate for the temporal one. However, this method leads to large uncertainties because several factors like the sea surface conditions or the origin and transport of water vapor influence the isotope–temperature temporal slope. In this study, we investigate how the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea ice extent, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) affect these temporal slopes in Greenland and Antarctica for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) to preindustrial climate change. For that, we use the isotope-enabled atmosphere climate model ECHAM6-wiso, forced with a set of sea surface boundary condition datasets based on reconstructions (e.g., GLOMAP) or MIROC 4m simulation outputs. We found that the isotope–temperature temporal slopes in East Antarctic coastal areas are mainly controlled by the sea ice extent, while the sea surface temperature cooling affects the temporal slope values inland more. On the other hand, ECHAM6-wiso simulates the impact of sea ice extent on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok sites through the contribution of water vapor from lower latitudes. Effects of sea surface boundary condition changes on modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes are variable in West Antarctica. This is partly due to the transport of water vapor from the Southern Ocean to this area that can dampen the influence of local temperature on the changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation and snow. In the Greenland area, the isotope–temperature temporal slopes are influenced by the sea surface temperatures near the coasts of the continent. The greater the LGM cooling off the coast of southeastern Greenland, the greater the transport of water vapor from the North Atlantic, and the larger the temporal slopes. The presence or absence of sea ice very near the coast has a large influence in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea and influences the slopes at some inland ice core stations. The extent of the sea ice far south slightly influences the temporal slopes in Greenland through the transport of more depleted water vapor from lower latitudes to this area. The seasonal variations of sea ice distribution, especially its retreat in summer, influence the isotopic composition of the water vapor in this region and the modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes in the eastern part of Greenland. A stronger LGM AMOC decreases LGM-to-preindustrial isotopic anomalies in precipitation in Greenland, degrading the isotopic model–data agreement. The AMOC strength modifies the temporal slopes over inner Greenland slightly and by a little on the coasts along the Greenland Sea where the changes in surface temperature and sea ice distribution due to the AMOC strength mainly occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 15 and 27 kyr b2k (thousands of years before 2000 CE) during the last glacial, Greenland experienced a prolonged cold stadial phase, interrupted by two short-lived warm interstadials. Greenland ice-core calcium data show two periods, preceding the interstadials, of anomalously high atmospheric dust loading, the origin of which is not well understood. At approximately the same time as the Greenland dust peaks, the Chinese Hulu Cave speleothems exhibit a climatic signal suggested to be a response to Heinrich Event 2, a period of enhanced ice-rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. In the climatic signal of Antarctic ice cores, moreover, a relative warming occurs between 23 and 24.5 kyr b2k that is generally interpreted as a counterpart to a cool climate phase in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed centennial-scale offsets between the polar ice-core timescales and the speleothem timescale hamper the precise reconstruction of the global sequence of these climatic events. Here, we examine two new 10 Be datasets from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to test the agreement between different timescales, by taking advantage of the globally synchronous cosmogenic radionuclide production rates. Evidence of an event similar to the Maunder Solar Minimum is found in the new 10 Be datasets, supported by lower-resolution radionuclide data from Greenland and 14 C in the Hulu Cave speleothem, representing a good synchronization candidate at around 22 kyr b2k. By matching the respective 10 Be data, we determine the offset between the Greenland ice-core chronology, GICC05, and the Antarctic chronology for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core (WDC), WD2014, to be 125 ± 40 years. Furthermore, via radionuclide wiggle-matching, we determine the offset between the Hulu speleothem and ice-core timescales to be 375 years for GICC05 (75–625 years at 68 % confidence) and 225 years for WD2014 (- 25–425 years at 68 % confidence). The rather wide uncertainties are intrinsic to the wiggle-matching algorithm and the limitations set by data resolution. The undercounting of annual layers in GICC05 inferred from the offset is hypothesized to have been caused by a combination of underdetected annual layers, especially during periods with low winter precipitation, and misinterpreted unusual patterns in the annual signal during the extremely cold period often referred to as Heinrich Stadial 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temperature of the Earth is one of the most important climate parameters. Proxy records of past climate changes, in particular temperature, represent a fundamental tool for exploring internal climate processes and natural climate forcings. Despite the excellent information provided by ice core records in Antarctica, the temperature variability of the past 2000 years is difficult to evaluate from the low-accumulation sites in the Antarctic continent interior. Here we present the results from the Aurora Basin North (ABN) ice core (71 ∘ S, 111 ∘ E, 2690 m a.s.l.) in the lower part of the East Antarctic plateau, where accumulation is substantially higher than other ice core drilling sites on the plateau, and provide unprecedented insight into East Antarctic past temperature variability. We reconstructed the temperature of the last 2000 years using two independent methods: the widely used water stable isotopes (δ18 O) and by inverse modelling of borehole temperature and past temperature gradients estimated from the inert gas stable isotopes (δ40 Ar and δ15 N). This second reconstruction is based on three independent measurement types: borehole temperature, firn thickness, and firn temperature gradient. The δ18 O temperature reconstruction supports stable temperature conditions within 1 ∘ C over the past 2000 years, in agreement with other ice core δ18 O records in the region. However, the gas and borehole temperature reconstruction suggests that surface conditions 2 ∘ C cooler than average prevailed in the 1000–1400 CE period and supports a 20th century warming of 1 ∘ C. A precipitation hiatus during cold periods could explain why water isotope temperature reconstruction underestimates the temperature changes. Both reconstructions arguably record climate in their own way, with a focus on atmospheric and hydrologic cycles for water isotopes, as opposed to surface temperature for gas isotopes and boreholes. This study demonstrates the importance of using a variety of sources for comprehensive paleoclimate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reconstruction of past sea-ice distribution in the Southern Ocean is crucial for an improved understanding of ice–ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and the evaluation of Earth system and Antarctic ice sheet models. The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been experiencing a warming since the start of regular monitoring of the atmospheric temperature in the 1950s. The associated decrease in sea-ice cover contrasts the trend of growing sea-ice extent in East Antarctica. To reveal the long-term sea-ice history at the northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) under changing climate conditions, we examined a marine sediment core from the eastern basin of the Bransfield Strait covering the last Deglacial and the Holocene. For sea-ice reconstructions, we focused on the specific sea-ice biomarker lipid IPSO 25 , a highly branched isoprenoid (HBI), and sea-ice diatoms, whereas a phytoplankton-derived HBI triene (C 25:3) and warmer open-ocean diatom assemblages reflect predominantly ice-free conditions. We further reconstruct ocean temperatures using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and diatom assemblages and compare our sea-ice and temperature records with published marine sediment and ice core data. A maximum ice cover is observed during the Antarctic Cold Reversal 13 800–13 000 years before present (13.8–13 ka), while seasonally ice-free conditions permitting (summer) phytoplankton productivity are reconstructed for the late Deglacial and the Early Holocene from 13 to 8.3 ka. An overall decreasing sea-ice trend throughout the Middle Holocene coincides with summer ocean warming and increasing phytoplankton productivity. The Late Holocene is characterized by highly variable winter sea-ice concentrations and a sustained decline in the duration and/or concentration of spring sea ice. Overall diverging trends in GDGT-based TEX 86L and RI-OH' subsurface ocean temperatures (SOTs) are found to be linked to opposing spring and summer insolation trends, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air trapped in polar ice provides unique records of the past atmospheric composition ranging from key greenhouse gases such as methane (CH 4) to short-lived trace gases like ethane (C 2 H 6) and propane (C 3 H 8). Recently, the comparison of CH 4 records obtained using different extraction methods revealed disagreements in the CH 4 concentration for the last glacial in Greenland ice. Elevated methane levels were detected in dust-rich ice core sections measured discretely, pointing to a process sensitive to the melt extraction technique. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, we performed targeted experiments and analyzed samples for methane and the short-chain alkanes ethane and propane covering the time interval from 12 to 42 kyr. Here, we report our findings of these elevated alkane concentrations, which scale linearly with the amount of mineral dust within the ice samples. The alkane production happens during the melt extraction step of the classic wet-extraction technique and reaches 14 to 91 ppb of CH 4 excess in dusty ice samples. We document for the first time a co-production of excess methane, ethane, and propane, with the observed concentrations for ethane and propane exceeding their past atmospheric background at least by a factor of 10. Independent of the produced amounts, excess alkanes were produced in a fixed molar ratio of approximately 14:2:1 , indicating a shared origin. The measured carbon isotopic signature of excess methane is (-47.0±2.9) ‰ and its deuterium isotopic signature is (-326±57) ‰. With the co-production ratios of excess alkanes and the isotopic composition of excess methane we established a fingerprint that allows us to constrain potential formation processes. This fingerprint is not in line with a microbial origin. Moreover, an adsorption–desorption process of thermogenic gas on dust particles transported to Greenland does not appear very likely. Instead, the alkane pattern appears to be indicative of abiotic decomposition of organic matter as found in soils and plant leaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an age model for the 651 m deep ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, situated inland of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The top 2000 years have previously been dated using age markers interpolated through annual layer counting. Below this, we align the Skytrain core to the AICC2012 age model using tie points in the ice and air phase, and we apply the Paleochrono program to obtain the best fit to the tie points and glaciological constraints. In the gas phase, ties are made using methane and, in critical sections, δ18 O air ; in the ice phase ties are through 10 Be across the Laschamps event and through ice chemistry related to long-range dust transport and deposition. This strategy provides a good outcome to about 108 ka (∼ 605 m). Beyond that there are signs of flow disturbance, with a section of ice probably repeated. Nonetheless values of CH 4 and δ18 O air confirm that part of the last interglacial (LIG), from about 117–126 ka (617–627 m), is present and in chronological order. Below this there are clear signs of stratigraphic disturbance, with rapid oscillation of values in both the ice and gas phase at the base of the LIG section, below 628 m. Based on methane values, the warmest part of the LIG and the coldest part of the penultimate glacial are missing from our record. Ice below 631 m appears to be of age > 150 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present a newly developed ice core gas-phase proxy that directly samples a component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation: synoptic-scale pressure variability. Surface pressure changes weakly disrupt gravitational isotopic settling in the firn layer, which is recorded in krypton-86 excess (86Krxs). The 86Krxs may therefore reflect the time-averaged synoptic pressure variability over several years (site "storminess"), but it likely cannot record individual synoptic events as ice core gas samples typically average over several years. We validate 86Krxs using late Holocene ice samples from 11 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core that collectively represent a wide range of surface pressure variability in the modern climate. We find a strong spatial correlation (r=-0.94 , p<0.01) between site average 86Krxs and time-averaged synoptic variability from reanalysis data. The main uncertainties in the analysis are the corrections for gas loss and thermal fractionation and the relatively large scatter in the data. Limited scientific understanding of the firn physics and potential biases of 86Krxs require caution in interpreting this proxy at present. We show that Antarctic 86Krxs appears to be linked to the position of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven subpolar jet (SPJ), with a southern position enhancing pressure variability. We present a 86Krxs record covering the last 24 kyr from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. Based on the empirical spatial correlation of synoptic activity and 86Krxs at various Antarctic sites, we interpret this record to show that West Antarctic synoptic activity is slightly below modern levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), increases during the Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas North Atlantic cold periods, weakens abruptly at the Holocene onset, remains low during the early and mid-Holocene, and gradually increases to its modern value. The WAIS Divide 86Krxs record resembles records of monsoon intensity thought to reflect changes in the meridional position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on orbital and millennial timescales such that West Antarctic storminess is weaker when the ITCZ is displaced northward and stronger when it is displaced southward. We interpret variations in synoptic activity as reflecting movement of the South Pacific SPJ in parallel to the ITCZ migrations, which is the expected zonal mean response of the eddy-driven jet in models and proxy data. Past changes to Pacific climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may amplify the signal of the SPJ migration. Our interpretation is broadly consistent with opal flux records from the Pacific Antarctic zone thought to reflect wind-driven upwelling. We emphasize that 86Krxs is a new proxy, and more work is called for to confirm, replicate, and better understand these results; until such time, our conclusions regarding past atmospheric dynamics remain speculative. Current scientific understanding of firn air transport and trapping is insufficient to explain all the observed variations in 86Krxs. A list of suggested future studies is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of microparticle geometry is essential for accurate calculation of ice core volume-related dust metrics (mass, flux, and particle size distributions) and subsequent paleoclimate interpretations, yet particle shape data remain sparse in Antarctica. Here we present 41 discrete particle shape measurements, volume calculations, and calibrated continuous particle time series spanning 50–16 ka from the South Pole Ice Core (SPC14) to assess particle shape characteristics and variability. We used FlowCAM, a dynamic particle imaging instrument, to measure aspect ratios (width divided by length) of microparticles. We then compared those results to Coulter counter measurements on the same set of samples as well as high-resolution laser-based (Abakus) data collected from SPC14 during continuous flow analysis. The 41 discrete samples were collected during three periods of millennial-scale climate variability: Heinrich Stadial 1 (18–16 ka , n=6 ; ∼250 years per sample), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (27–18 ka , n=19 ; ∼460 years per sample), and during both Heinrich Stadial 4 (42–36 ka , n=8 ; ∼620 years per sample) and Heinrich Stadial 5 (50–46 ka , n=8 ; ∼440 years per sample). Using FlowCAM measurements, we calculated different particle size distributions (PSDs) for spherical and ellipsoidal volume estimates. Our calculated volumes were then compared to published Abakus calibration techniques. We found that Abakus-derived PSDs calculated assuming ellipsoidal, rather than spherical, particle shapes provide a more accurate representation of PSDs measured by Coulter counter, reducing Abakus to Coulter counter flux and mass ratios from 1.82 (spherical assumption) to 0.79 and 1.20 (ellipsoidal assumptions; 1 being a perfect match). Coarser particles (>5.0 µm diameter) show greater variation in measured aspect ratios than finer particles (<5.0 µm). While fine particle volumes can be accurately estimated using the spherical assumption, applying the same assumption to coarse particles has a large effect on inferred particle volumes. Temporally, coarse and fine particle aspect ratios do not significantly change within or among the three time periods (p value >0.05), suggesting that long-range transport of dust is likely dominated by clay minerals and other elongated minerals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution, downscaled climate model data are used in a wide variety of applications across environmental sciences. Here we introduce a new, high-resolution dataset, CHELSA-TraCE21k. It is obtained by downscaling TraCE-21k data, using the "Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas" (CHELSA) V1.2 algorithm with the objective to create global monthly climatologies for temperature and precipitation at 30 arcsec spatial resolution in 100-year time steps for the last 21 000 years. Paleo-orography at high spatial resolution and for each time step is created by combining high-resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glacier databases and interpolations using data from a global model of glacial isostasy (ICE-6G_C) and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from TraCE21k (Transient Climate Evolution of the last 21 000 years) based on the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Based on the reconstructed paleo-orography, mean annual temperature and precipitation were downscaled using the CHELSA V1.2 algorithm. The data were validated by comparisons with the glacial extent of the Laurentide ice sheet based on expert delineations, proxy data from Greenland ice cores, historical climate data from meteorological stations, and a dynamic simulation of species distributions throughout the Holocene. Validations show that the CHELSA-TraCE21k V1.0 dataset reasonably represents the distribution of temperature and precipitation through time at an unprecedented 1 km spatial resolution, and simulations based on the data are capable of detecting known LGM refugia of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconstructed surface mass balance (SMB) around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, over the last 5000 years using the data from 15 shallow ice cores and seven snow pits. The depth–age relationships for the ice cores were determined by synchronizing them with a layer-counted ice core from West Antarctica (WAIS Divide ice core) using volcanic signals. The reconstructed SMB records for the last 4000 years show spatial patterns that may be affected by their locations relative to the ice divides around Dome Fuji, proximity to the ocean, and wind direction. The SMB records from the individual ice cores and snow pits were stacked to reconstruct the SMB history in the Dome Fuji area. The stacked record exhibits a long-term decreasing trend at -0.037±0.005 kg m -2 per century over the last 5000 years in the preindustrial period. The decreasing trend may be the result of long-term surface cooling over East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and sea ice expansion in the water vapor source areas. The multidecadal to centennial variations of the Dome Fuji SMB after detrending the record shows four distinct periods during the last millennium: a mostly negative period before 1300 CE, a slightly positive period from 1300 to 1450 CE, a slightly negative period from 1450 to 1850 CE with a weak maximum around 1600 CE, and a strong increase after 1850 CE. These variations are consistent with those of previously reconstructed SMB records in the East Antarctic plateau. The low accumulation rate periods tend to coincide with the combination of strong volcanic forcings and solar minima for the last 1000 years, but the correspondence is not clear for the older periods, possibly because of the lack of coincidence of volcanic and solar forcings or the deterioration of the SMB record due to a smaller number of stacked cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions are the dominant cause of natural variability in climate forcing on timescales up to multidecadal. Large volcanic eruptions lead to global-scale climate effects and influence the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, estimating the frequency of eruptions is challenging. Here we assess the frequency at which eruptions with particular deposition fluxes are observed in the EPICA Dome C ice core over the last 200 kyr. Using S isotope analysis we confirm that most of the largest peaks recorded at Dome C are from stratospheric eruptions. The cumulative frequency through 200 kyr is close to linear, suggesting an approximately constant rate of eruptions. There is no evidence for an increase in the rate of events recorded in Antarctica at either of the last two deglaciations. Millennial variability is at the level expected from recording small numbers of eruptions, while multimillennial variability may be partly due to changes in transport efficiency through the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Our record of events with sulfate deposition rates > 20 and >50 mg m -2 contains 678 and 75 eruptions, respectively, over the last 200 kyr. Calibration with data on historic eruptions and analysis of a global Quaternary dataset of terrestrial eruptions indicates that sulfate peaks with deposition rates > 20 and >50 mg m -2 correspond to explosive eruptions of magnitude ≥ 6.5 and ≥7 , respectively. The largest recorded eruption deposited just over 300 mg m -2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland ice cores provide information about past climate. Few impurity records covering the past 2 decades exist from Greenland. Here we present results from six firn cores obtained during a 426 km long northern Greenland traverse made in 2015 between the NEEM and the EGRIP deep-drilling stations situated on the western side and eastern side of the Greenland ice sheet, respectively. The cores (9 to 14 m long) are analyzed for chemical impurities and cover time spans of 18 to 53 years (±3 years) depending on local snow accumulation that decreases from west to east. The high temporal resolution allows for annual layers and seasons to be resolved. Insoluble dust, ammonium, and calcium concentrations in the six firn cores overlap, and the seasonal cycles are also similar in timing and magnitude across sites, while peroxide (H 2 O 2) and conductivity both have spatial variations, H 2 O 2 driven by the accumulation pattern, and conductivity likely influenced by sea salt. Overall, we determine a rather constant dust flux over the period, but in the data from recent years (1998–2015) we identify an increase in large dust particles that we ascribe to an activation of local Greenland sources. We observe an expected increase in acidity and conductivity in the mid-1970s as a result of anthropogenic emissions, followed by a decrease due to mitigation. Several volcanic horizons identified in the conductivity and acidity records can be associated with eruptions in Iceland and in the Barents Sea region. From a composite ammonium record we obtain a robust forest fire proxy associated primarily with Canadian forest fires (R=0.49). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 8.2 ka event is regarded as the most prominent climate anomaly of the Holocene and is thought to have been triggered by a meltwater release to the North Atlantic that was of sufficient magnitude to disrupt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It is most clearly captured in Greenland ice-core records, where it is reported as a cold and dry anomaly lasting ∼ 160 years, from 8.25 ± 0.05 until 8.09 ± 0.05 ka (Thomas et al., 2007). It is also recorded in several archives in the North Atlantic region; however, its interpreted timing, evolution and impacts vary significantly. This inconsistency is commonly attributed to poorly constrained chronologies and/or inadequately resolved time series. Here we present a high-resolution speleothem record of early Holocene palaeoclimate from El Soplao Cave in northern Spain, a region pertinent to studying the impacts of AMOC perturbations on south-western Europe. We explore the timing and impact of the 8.2 ka event on a decadal scale by coupling speleothem stable carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios, trace element ratios (Mg / Ca and Sr / Ca), and growth rate. Throughout the entire speleothem record, δ18 O variability is related to changes in effective recharge. This is supported by the pattern of changes in δ13 C, Mg / Ca and growth rate. The 8.2 ka event is marked as a centennial-scale negative excursion in El Soplao δ18 O, starting at 8.19 ± 0.06 ka and lasting until 8.05 ± 0.05 ka, suggesting increased recharge at the time. Although this is supported by the other proxies, the amplitude of the changes is minor and largely within the realm of variability over the preceding 1000 years. Further, the shift to lower δ18 O leads the other proxies, which we interpret as the imprint of the change in the isotopic composition of the moisture source, associated with the meltwater flux to the North Atlantic. A comparison with other well-dated records from south-western Europe reveals that the timing of the 8.2 ka event was synchronous, with an error-weighted mean age for the onset of 8.23 ± 0.03 and 8.10 ± 0.05 ka for the end of the event. This compares favourably with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record. The comparison also reveals that the El Soplao δ18 O is structurally similar to the other archives in south-western Europe and the NGRIP ice-core record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core provides the longest continuous climatic record, covering the last 800 000 years (800 kyr). A unique opportunity to investigate decadal to millennial variability during past glacial and interglacial periods is provided by the high-resolution water isotopic record (δ18 O and δ D) available for the EDC ice core. We present here a continuous compilation of the EDC water isotopic record at a sample resolution of 11 cm, which consists of 27 000 δ18 O measurements and 7920 δ D measurements (covering, respectively, 94 % and 27 % of the whole EDC record), including published and new measurements (2900 for both δ18 O and δ D) for the last 800 kyr. Here, we demonstrate that repeated water isotope measurements of the same EDC samples from different depth intervals obtained using different analytical methods are comparable within analytical uncertainty. We thus combine all available EDC water isotope measurements to generate a high-resolution (11 cm) dataset for the past 800 kyr. A frequency decomposition of the most complete δ18 O record and a simple assessment of the possible influence of diffusion on the measured profile shows that the variability at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial timescale is higher during glacial than during interglacial periods and higher during early interglacial isotopic maxima than during the Holocene. This analysis shows as well that during interglacial periods characterized by a temperature optimum at the beginning, the multi-centennial variability is strongest over this temperature optimum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO 2 from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica, over the early Holocene (11.7–7.4 ka) that quantifies natural CO 2 variability on millennial timescales under interglacial climate conditions. Atmospheric CO 2 decreased by ∼10 ppm between 11.3 and 7.3 ka. The decrease was punctuated by local minima at 11.1, 10.1, 9.1, and 8.3 ka with an amplitude of 2–4 ppm. Although the explanations of carbon cycle mechanisms remain uncertain due to insufficient paleoclimate records and model simulations, these variations correlate with proxies for solar forcing and local climate in the southeast Atlantic polar front, eastern equatorial Pacific, and North Atlantic. Additional CO 2 measurements using better-quality ice cores and carbon cycle models are needed to confirm the observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a significant influence of volcanic activity on Holocene climate is well-established, an equally prominent role of major eruptions in the climate variability and regime shifts during the Quaternary glacial cycles has been suggested. Previous statistical assessments of this were challenged by inaccurate synchronization of large volcanic eruptions to changes in past climate. Here, this is alleviated by combining a new record of bipolar volcanism from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores with records of abrupt climate change derived from the same ice cores. We show that bipolar volcanic eruptions occurred significantly more frequently than expected by chance just before the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger events, which are the most prominent large-scale abrupt climate changes in the last glacial period. Out of 20 abrupt warming events in the 12–60 ka period, 5 (7) occur within 20 (50) years after a bipolar eruption. We hypothesize that this may be a result of the direct influence of volcanic cooling on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which is widely regarded as the main climate subsystem involved in Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Transitions from a weak to a strong circulation mode may be triggered by cooling in the North Atlantic given that the circulation is close to a stability threshold. We illustrate this suggestion by simulations with an ocean-only general circulation model forced by short-term volcanic cooling. The analysis presented suggests that large eruptions may act as short-term triggers for large-scale abrupt climate change and may explain some of the variability of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. While we argue that the bipolar catalogue used here covers a sufficiently large portion of the eruptions with the strongest global climate impact, volcanic events restricted to either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere may likewise contribute to abrupt climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth system, influencing energy, heat and freshwater fluxes, air–sea gas exchange, ice shelf dynamics, ocean circulation, nutrient cycling, marine productivity and global carbon cycling. However, accurate simulation of recent sea-ice changes remains challenging and, therefore, projecting future sea-ice changes and their influence on the global climate system is uncertain. Reconstructing past changes in sea-ice cover can provide additional insights into climate feedbacks within the Earth system at different timescales. This paper is the first of two review papers from the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) working group. In this first paper, we review marine- and ice core-based sea-ice proxies and reconstructions of sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Antarctic sea-ice reconstructions rely mainly on diatom fossil assemblages and highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes in marine sediments, supported by chemical proxies in Antarctic ice cores. Most reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) suggest that winter sea ice expanded all around Antarctica and covered almost twice its modern surface extent. In contrast, LGM summer sea ice expanded mainly in the regions off the Weddell and Ross seas. The difference between winter and summer sea ice during the LGM led to a larger seasonal cycle than today. More recent efforts have focused on reconstructing Antarctic sea ice during warm periods, such as the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG), which may serve as an analogue for the future. Notwithstanding regional heterogeneities, existing reconstructions suggest that sea-ice cover increased from the warm mid-Holocene to the colder Late Holocene with pervasive decadal- to millennial-scale variability throughout the Holocene. Studies, supported by proxy modelling experiments, suggest that sea-ice cover was halved during the warmer LIG when global average temperatures were ∼2 ∘ C above the pre-industrial (PI). There are limited marine (14) and ice core (4) sea-ice proxy records covering the complete 130 000 year (130 ka) last glacial cycle. The glacial–interglacial pattern of sea-ice advance and retreat appears relatively similar in each basin of the Southern Ocean. Rapid retreat of sea ice occurred during Terminations II and I while the expansion of sea ice during the last glaciation appears more gradual especially in ice core data sets. Marine records suggest that the first prominent expansion occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and that sea ice reached maximum extent during MIS 2. We, however, note that additional sea-ice records and transient model simulations are required to better identify the underlying drivers and feedbacks of Antarctic sea-ice changes over the last 130 ka. This understanding is critical to improve future predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new ice core was drilled in West Antarctica on Skytrain Ice Rise in field season 2018/2019. This 651 m ice core is one of the main targets of the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project. A present-day accumulation rate of 13.5 cm w.e. yr -1 was derived. Although the project mainly aims to investigate the last interglacial (115–130 ka), a robust chronology period covering the recent past is needed to constrain the age models for the deepest ice. Additionally, this time period is important for understanding current climatic changes in the West Antarctic region. Here, we present a stratigraphic chronology for the top 184.14 m of the Skytrain ice core based on absolute age tie points interpolated using annual layer counting encompassing the last 2000 years of climate history. Together with a model-based depth–age relationship of the deeper part of the ice core, this will form the ST22 chronology. The chemical composition, dust content, liquid conductivity, water isotope concentration and methane content of the whole core was analysed via continuous flow analysis (CFA) at the British Antarctic Survey. Annual layer counting was performed by manual counting of seasonal variations in mainly the sodium and calcium records. This counted chronology was informed and anchored by absolute age tie points, namely, the tritium peak (1965 CE) and six volcanic eruptions. Methane concentration variations were used to further constrain the counting error. A minimal error of ±1 year at the tie points was derived, accumulating to ± 5 %–10 % of the age in the unconstrained sections between tie points. This level of accuracy enables data interpretation on at least decadal timescales and provides a solid base for the dating of deeper ice, which is the second part of the chronology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice forms a critical part of the Southern Ocean and global climate system. The behaviour of Antarctic sea ice throughout the last glacial-interglacial (G-IG) cycle (12 000–130 000 years) allows us to investigate the interactions between sea ice and climate under a large range of mean climate states. Understanding both temporal and spatial variations in Antarctic sea ice across a G-IG cycle is crucial to a better understanding of the G-IG regulation of atmospheric CO 2 , ocean circulation, nutrient cycling and productivity. This study presents 28 published qualitative and quantitative estimates of G-IG sea ice from 24 marine sediment cores and an Antarctic ice core. Sea ice is reconstructed from the sediment core records using diatom assemblages and from the ice core record using sea-salt sodium flux. Whilst all regions of the Southern Ocean display the same overall pattern in G-IG sea-ice variations, the magnitudes and timings vary between regions. Sea-ice cover is most sensitive to changing climate in the regions of high sea-ice outflow from the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea gyres, as indicated by the greatest magnitude changes in sea ice in these areas. In contrast the Scotia Sea sea-ice cover is much more resilient to moderate climatic warming, likely due to the meltwater stratification from high iceberg flux through "iceberg alley" helping to sustain high sea-ice cover outside of full glacial intervals. The differing sensitivities of sea ice to climatic shifts between different regions of the Southern Ocean has important implications for the spatial pattern of nutrient supply and primary productivity, which subsequently impact carbon uptake and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations changes across a G-IG cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are among the most important drivers of recently observed environmental changes in West Antarctica. However, the lack of long-term wind records in this region hinders our ability to assess the long-term context of these variations. Ice core proxy records yield valuable information about past environmental changes, although current proxies present limitations when aiming to reconstruct past winds. Here we present the first regional wind study based on the novel use of diatoms preserved in Antarctic ice cores. We assess the temporal variability in diatom abundance and its relation to regional environmental parameters spanning a 20-year period across three sites in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and Ellsworth Land, Antarctica. Correlation analyses reveal that the temporal variability of diatom abundance from high-elevation ice core sites is driven by changes in wind strength over the core of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt, validating the use of diatoms preserved in ice cores from high-elevation inland sites in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and Ellsworth Land as a proxy for reconstructing past variations in wind strength over the Pacific sector of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international ice core community has a target to obtain continuous ice cores stretching back as far as 1.5 Myr. This would provide vital data (including a CO2 profile) allowing us to assess ideas about the cause of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). The European Beyond EPICA project and the Australian Million Year Ice Core project each plan to drill such a core in the region known as Little Dome C. Dating the cores will be challenging, and one approach will be to match some of the records obtained with existing marine sediment datasets, informed by similarities in the existing 800 kyr period. Water isotopes in Antarctica have been shown to closely mirror deepwater temperature, estimated from Mg/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera, in a marine core on the Chatham Rise near to New Zealand. The dust record in ice cores resembles very closely a South Atlantic marine record of iron accumulation rate. By assuming these relationships continue beyond 800 ka, our ice core record could be synchronised to dated marine sediments. This could be supplemented, and allow synchronisation at higher resolution, by the identification of rapid millennial-scale events that are observed both in Antarctic methane records and in emerging records of planktic oxygen isotopes and alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) from the Portuguese Margin. Although published data remain quite sparse, it should also be possible to match 10Be from ice cores to records of geomagnetic palaeo-intensity and authigenic 10Be/9Be in marine sediments. However, there are a number of issues that have to be resolved before the ice core 10Be record can be used. The approach of matching records to a template will be most successful if the new core is in stratigraphic order but should also provide constraints on disordered records if used in combination with absolute radiogenic ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 852/3 CE eruption of Mount Churchill, Alaska, was one of the largest first-millennium volcanic events, with a magnitude of 6.7 (VEI 6) and a tephra volume of 39.4–61.9 km 3 (95 % confidence). The spatial extent of the ash fallout from this event is considerable and the cryptotephra (White River Ash east; WRAe) extends as far as Finland and Poland. Proximal ecosystem and societal disturbances have been linked with this eruption; however, wider eruption impacts on climate and society are unknown. Greenland ice core records show that the eruption occurred in winter 852/3 ± 1 CE and that the eruption is associated with a relatively moderate sulfate aerosol loading but large abundances of volcanic ash and chlorine. Here we assess the potential broader impact of this eruption using palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, historical records and climate model simulations. We also use the fortuitous timing of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption and its extensively widespread tephra deposition of the White River Ash (east) (WRAe) to examine the climatic expression of the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly period (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) from precisely linked peatlands in the North Atlantic region. The reconstructed climate forcing potential of the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption is moderate compared with the eruption magnitude, but tree-ring-inferred temperatures report a significant atmospheric cooling of 0.8 ∘ C in summer 853 CE. Modelled climate scenarios also show a cooling in 853 CE, although the average magnitude of cooling is smaller (0.3 ∘ C). The simulated spatial patterns of cooling are generally similar to those generated using the tree-ring-inferred temperature reconstructions. Tree-ring-inferred cooling begins prior to the date of the eruption suggesting that natural internal climate variability may have increased the climate system's susceptibility to further cooling. The magnitude of the reconstructed cooling could also suggest that the climate forcing potential of this eruption may be underestimated, thereby highlighting the need for greater insight into, and consideration of, the role of halogens and volcanic ash when estimating eruption climate forcing potential. Precise comparisons of palaeoenvironmental records from peatlands across North America and Europe, facilitated by the presence of the WRAe isochron, reveal no consistent MCA signal. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that characterises the MCA hydroclimate as time-transgressive and heterogeneous rather than a well-defined climatic period. The presence of the WRAe isochron also demonstrates that no long-term (multidecadal) climatic or societal impacts from the 852/3 CE Churchill eruption were identified beyond areas proximal to the eruption. Historical evidence in Europe for subsistence crises demonstrate a degree of temporal correspondence on interannual timescales, but similar events were reported outside of the eruption period and were common in the 9th century. The 852/3 CE Churchill eruption exemplifies the difficulties of identifying and confirming volcanic impacts for a single eruption, even when the eruption has a small age uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice-core timescales are vital for the understanding of past climate; hence they should be updated whenever significant amounts of new data become available. Here, the Greenland ice-core chronology GICC05 was revised for the last 3835 years by synchronizing six deep ice cores and three shallow ice cores from the central Greenland ice sheet. A new method was applied by combining automated counting of annual layers on multiple parallel proxies and manual fine-tuning. A layer counting bias was found in all ice cores because of site-specific signal disturbances; therefore the manual comparison of all ice cores was deemed necessary to increase timescale accuracy. After examining sources of error and their correlation lengths, the uncertainty rate was quantified to be 1 year per century. The new timescale is younger than GICC05 by about 13 years at 3835 years ago. The most recent 800 years are largely unaffected by the revision. Between 800 and 2000 years ago, the offset between timescales increases steadily, with the steepest offset occurring between 800 and 1100 years ago. Moreover, offset oscillations of about 5 years around the average are observed between 2500 and 3800 years ago. The non-linear offset behavior is attributed to previous mismatches of volcanic eruptions, to the much more extensive dataset available to this study, and to the finer resolution of the new ice-core ammonium matching. By analysis of the common variations in cosmogenic radionuclides, the new ice-core timescale is found to be in alignment with the IntCal20 curve (Reimer et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]