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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the leading mode of Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability, arises mainly from combinations of regional air-sea interaction within the North Pacific Ocean and remote forcing, such as from the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Because of such a combination of mechanisms, a question remains as to how much PDO variability originates from these regions. To better understand PDO variability, the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic impacts on the PDO are examined using several 3-dimensional partial ocean data assimilation experiments conducted with two global climate models: the CESM1.0 and MIROC3.2m. In these partial assimilation experiments, the climate models are constrained by observed temperature and salinity anomalies, one solely in the Atlantic basin and the other solely in the equatorial Pacific basin, but are allowed to evolve freely in other regions. These experiments demonstrate that, in addition to the tropical Pacific’s role in driving PDO variability, the Atlantic can affect PDO variability by modulating the tropical Pacific climate through two proposed processes. One is the equatorial pathway, in which tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability causes an El Niño-like SST response in the equatorial Pacific through the reorganization of the global Walker circulation. The other is the north tropical pathway, where low-frequency SST variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation induces a Matsuno-Gill type atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic-Pacific sectors north of the equator. These results provide a quantitative assessment suggesting that 12–29% of PDO variance originates from the Atlantic Ocean and 40–44% from the tropical Pacific. The remaining 27–48% of the variance is inferred to arise from other processes such as regional ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Pacific and possibly teleconnections from the Indian Ocean.

The highly populated north central India receives 90% of annual rainfall during June to September. The interannual variation of summer monsoon rainfall is less studied compared to central and western India, due to its weak signal with the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Previous studies have reported a marked decadal variation in the ENSO influences on north India rainfall, but the teleconnections of this variation are not satisfactorily understood. A pathway of the changing ENSO influences on north central India rainfall is revealed from observational data analysis and numerical experiments. While La Nina-like conditions produce anomalous northeasterly wind over India and reduce the tropospheric wind shear, the emergence of the Atlantic Nino appears to overtake this ENSO influence. The Atlantic Nino intensifies the meridional stationary wave affecting pressure anomaly over northwest Europe. This excites the Eurasian Rossby wave train along the mid-latitude producing upper-troposphere high pressure anomaly, subsequently affecting north India. Future work should examine the extent to which these teleconnections are represented in climate forecast models to aid the seasonal prediction of north central India rainfall.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) have been linked to the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events a full year in advance. However, the contribution of the WNP precursor to the temporal evolution and spatial complexity of ENSO remains unclear. Using the preindustrial experiment of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, a partially coupled experiment is conducted in which WNP SSTa are restored to the model climatology. By comparing the perturbed experiment to the control, we are able to clearly characterize ENSO’s response to WNP SST variability. We find that the WNP is predominantly linked to eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. Without SST variability in the WNP, central Pacific (CP) ENSO events are more likely to develop. This variation in ENSO flavor is controlled by how the WNP projects onto wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, which in turn impacts the discharge and recharge of ocean heat during the ENSO cycle. Specifically, the removal of SSTa in the WNP weakens the buildup of ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific, which then hinders the development of EP-type events.

Two or more spatio-temporally co-located meteorological/climatological extremes (co-occurring extremes) place far greater stress on human and ecological systems than any single extreme could. This was observed during the California drought of 2011–2015 where multiple years of negative precipitation anomalies occurred simultaneously with positive temperature anomalies resulting in California’s worst drought on observational record. The large-scale drivers which modulate the occurrence of extremes in two or more variables remains largely unexplored. Using California wintertime (November–April) temperature and precipitation as a case study, we apply a novel, nonparametric conditional probability distribution method that allows for evaluation of complex, multivariate, and nonlinear relationships that exist among temperature, precipitation, and various indicators of large-scale climate variability and change. We find that multivariate variability and statistics of temperature and precipitation exhibit strong spatial variation across scales that are often treated as being homogeneous. Further, we demonstrate that the multivariate statistics of temperature and precipitation are highly non-stationary and therefore require more robust and sophisticated statistical techniques for accurate characterization. Of all the indicators of the large-scale climate conditions we studied, the dipole index explains the greatest fraction of multivariate variability in the co-occurrence of California wintertime extremes in temperature and precipitation.

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) was subsequently used for an attribution analysis. Over northern Vietnam an early-monsoon increase in precipitation is attributed to changes in both greenhouse gases and natural forcing. For central Vietnam, the observed increase in early-monsoon precipitation is reproduced by the simulation forced with greenhouse gases. However, over southern Vietnam the early-monsoon precipitation increase is less definitive where aerosols were seen to be preponderant but natural forcing through the role of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation may well be a factor that is not resolved by CCSM4. Increased early-monsoonal precipitation over the coastal lowland and deltas has the potential to amplify economic and human losses.

The summer monsoon inversion in the Arabian Sea is characterized by a large amount of low clouds and August as the peak season. Atmospheric stratification associated with the monsoon inversion has been considered a local system influenced by the advancement of the India–Pakistan monsoon. Empirical and numerical evidence from this study suggests that the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion is linked to a broader-scale monsoon evolution across the African Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia–Western North Pacific (WNP), rather than being a mere byproduct of the India–Pakistan monsoon progression. In August, the upper-tropospheric anticyclone in South Asia extends sideways corresponding with the enhanced precipitation in the subtropical WNP, equatorial Indian Ocean, and African Sahel while the middle part of this anticyclone weakens over the Arabian Sea. The increased heating in the adjacent monsoon systems creates a suppression effect on the Arabian Sea, suggesting an apparent competition among the Africa–Asia–WNP monsoon subsystems. The peak Sahel rainfall in August, together with enhanced heating in the equatorial Indian Ocean, produces a critical effect on strengthening the Arabian Sea thermal inversion. By contrast, the WNP monsoon onset which signifies the eastward expansion of the subtropical Asian monsoon heating might play a secondary or opposite role in the Arabian Sea monsoon inversion.

A 110-year precipitation record in Taiwan, located at the western edge of the subtropical North Pacific, depicts a pronounced quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO). The QDO in Taiwan exhibits a fluctuating relationship with the similar decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, known as the Pacific QDO. A regime change was observed around 1960, such that the decadal variation of Taiwan’s precipitation became more synchronized with the Pacific QDO’s coupled evolutions of SST and atmospheric circulation than before, while the underlying pattern of the Pacific QOD did not change. Using long-term reanalysis data and CMIP5 single-forcing experiments, the presented analysis suggests that increased SST in the subtropical western Pacific and the strengthened western extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone may have collectively enhanced the relationship between the Taiwan precipitation and the Pacific QDO. This finding provides possible clues to similar regime changes in quasi-decadal variability observed around the western Pacific rim.

During 13-17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of 15 Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods in history and massive landslides, 16 resulting in more than 5,000 casualties and a huge loss of property. In this study, 17 meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and 18 similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979-2012. Attribution analysis was 19 performed to identify the natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate anomalies 20 using the historical single-forcing experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison 21 Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, regional modeling experiments were carried out to 22 quantify the role of the long-term climate trends in affecting the rainfall magnitude of the 23 June 2013 event. It was found that (a) northern India has experienced increasingly large 24 rainfall in June since the late 1980s, (b) the increase in rainfall appears to be associated 25 with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves, and (c) the 26 phasing of such amplified short waves is tied with increased green-house gases (GHGs) 27 and aerosols. In addition, a regional modeling diagnosis attributed 60-90% of rainfall 28 amounts in the June 2013 event to post-1980 climate trends.

Large scale moisture flux analysis was carried out for the Mediterranean Basin in order to increase our understanding of the larger scale atmospheric controls on moisture flux convergence that are related to drier and wetter conditions. The seasonal moisture budget (precipitation minus evaporation) was calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1949–2012. Results of the analysis show that the displacements of prevailing atmospheric action centres located over the subtropical mid-east Atlantic (i.e. Azores high) and the north-east Atlantic (i.e. sub-polar or Iceland low) to the north and to south, respectively, generally determine the wet or dry conditions over the Mediterranean Basin. In winter, the eddy fluxes originating from the mid-Atlantic propagate over Europe providing wet conditions in western and central Europe. The contribution of eddies to the moisture budget weaken in summer for the Mediterranean Basin, because of weaker and less frequent frontal activities in general.

Precipitation from the West African Monsoon (WAM) provides food security and supports the economy in the region. As a consequence of the intrinsic complexities of the WAM’s evolution, accurate simulations of the WAM and its precipitation regime, through the application of regional climate models, are challenging. We used the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Land Model (CLM) to explore impacts of radiation physics on the precipitation and dynamics of the WAM. Our results indicate that the radiation physics schemes not only produce biases in radiation fluxes impacting radiative forcing, but more importantly, result in large bias in precipitation of the WAM. Furthermore, the different radiation schemes led to variations in the meridional gradient of surface temperature between the north that is the Sahara desert and the south Guinean coastline. Climate diagnostics indicated that the changes in the meridional gradient of surface temperature affect the position and strength of the African Easterly Jet as well as the low-level monsoonal inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. The net result was that each radiation scheme produced differences in the WAM precipitation regime both spatially and in intensity. Such considerable variances in the WAM precipitation regime and dynamics, resulting from radiation representations, likely have strong feedbacks within the climate system and so have inferences when it comes to aspects of predicted climate change both for the region and globally.

The pre-monsoon tropical cyclone (TC) activity and the monsoon evolution in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are both influenced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), but the two do not always occur in unison. This study examines the conditions that allow the MJO to modulate the monsoon onset in Myanmar and TC activity concurrently. Using the APHRODITE gridded precipitation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis datasets, composite evolutions of monsoon rainfall and TC genesis are constructed for the period of 1979–2010. It is found that the MJO exhibits a strong interannual variability in terms of phase and intensity, which in some years modulate the conditions for BoB TCs to shortly precede or form concurrently with the monsoon onset in Myanmar. Such a modulation is absent in years of weaker MJO events. Further understanding of the interannual variability of MJO activity could facilitate the prediction of the monsoon onset and TC formation in the BoB.

The formation mechanism of diurnal rainfall in Taiwan is commonly recognized as a result of local forcings involving solar thermal heating and island-scale land–sea breeze (LSB) interacting with orography. This study found that the diurnal variation of the large-scale circulation over the East Asia-Western North Pacific (EAWNP) modulates considerably the diurnal rainfall in Taiwan. It is shown that the interaction between the two LSB systems—the island-scale LSB and the large-scale LSB over EAWNP—facilitates the formation of the early morning rainfall in western Taiwan, afternoon rainfall in central Taiwan, and nighttime rainfall in eastern Taiwan. Moreover, the post-1998 strengthening of a shallow, low-level southerly wind belt along the coast of Southeast China appears to intensify the diurnal rainfall activity in Taiwan. These findings reveal the role of the large-scale LSB and its long-term variation in the modulation of local diurnal rainfall.

In the western United States, persistent and recurrent flow patterns not only modulate precipitation events but also result in prolonged surface inversion episodes. In this region, the frequency of persistent ridge/trough events ranges between 20 and 40 days, well within the intraseasonal timescale. Based on NCEP reanalysis data starting at 1949, with a focus on the interior West, we observed that episodes of prolonged ridge/trough events appear to occur about a week later every year and resets every 5–7 years—a previously undocumented phenomenon examined herein. Diagnostic analyses indicate that the interplay between regional intraseasonal flow patterns and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alternates the preferred timeframe for the persistent ridge/trough events to occur. This may result from different phases of the NAO shifting the winter mean ridge and such shifts modulate the occurrence and timing of persistent ridge/trough events. When the timing changes evolve around the quasi-6 years cycle of the NAO, the resultant evolution forms what appears to be a steady phase delay in the ridge/trough events year after year. These results are a further step in disclosing the multiple-scale interaction between intraseasonal and interannual modes and its regional climate/weather impact.

Nepal’s precipitation is uncorrelated with the all-India monsoon precipitation. However, the quasi-decadal variability of precipitation is significant in the Nepal Himalayas but its mechanism has received little attention. Using a set of century-long reanalysis and observations of precipitation, spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses were conducted to determine the role of the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO) in Nepal’s precipitation regime. The dynamical and moisture processes involved in the Pacific QDO of the monsoon precipitation in Nepal were also examined. The monsoon precipitation in Nepal is enhanced when southeasterly moisture fluxes, originated from the Bay of Bengal, divert towards the north and subsequently interact with the southern Himalayan foothills. The redirected moisture fluxes are modulated through the Pacific QDO and are embedded in a propagating global wave 1–2 circulation pattern. However, the modulation exhibits a phase shift of 2 years between the precipitation anomalies in Nepal and the extreme phases of the Pacific QDO. A phase shift of this nature ascribes to the low correlation skill between the Nepal precipitation and traditional monsoon indices, such as those of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the all-India precipitation. The lagged relationship between the monsoon precipitation and the Pacific QDO is unique to Nepal, the inclusion of which should improve the predictive ability for the Nepal monsoon.

One may infer from the poleward propagation of angular momentum that energy change in tropical regions may be manifested in polar regions through a poleward propagation. This idea does not seem to be extensively addressed in the literature. It has been found that the poleward propagation of total atmospheric energy appears to connect the tropics and the polar regions on the interannual timescale. The present study explores how this poleward propagation may be linked to prominent climate oscillations such as ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO, AAO, and PSA. Analysis suggests that the poleward propagation of energy is likely a result of the atmospheric circulation change modulated by the climate patterns of ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO from tropical to Arctic regions and by the climate patterns of ENSO, PSA, AAO from tropical to Antarctic regions. The existence of the poleward energy propagation may shed light on studies exploring the link- age between topical climate and polar climate.

Propagating convective storms across the US northern plains are often coupled with preexisting midtropospheric perturbations (MPs) initiated over the Rocky Mountains. A companion study (Part I) notes that such MPs occur most commonly at 12 UTC (early morning) and 00 UTC (late afternoon). Using a regional reanalysis and a general circulation model (GCM), this study investigates how such a bimodal distribution of the MP frequency is formed. The results point to two possible mechanisms working together while each has a different timing in terms of maximum effect. The diurnal evolutions between the midtropospheric flows over the Rockies and over the Great Plains are nearly out-of-phase due to inertial oscillation. During the nighttime, the westerly flows at 700–500 mb over the Rockies intensify while flows at the same level over the Great Plains turn easterly. These two flows converge over the eastern Rockies and induce cyclonic vorticity through vortex stretching. After sunrise, the convergence dissipates and the cyclonic vorticity is redistributed by horizontal vorticity advection, moving it downstream. This process creates a climatological zonally propagating vorticity signal which, in turn, facilitates the early-morning MP genesis at 12 UTC. The analysis also reveals marked dynamic instability conducive to subsynoptic-scale disturbances in the midtroposphere over the Rockies. Strong meridional temperature gradients appear over the north-facing slopes of the Rockies due to terrain heating to the south and the presence of cooler air to the north. This feature, along with persistent vertical shear, creates a Charney–Stern type of instability (i.e. sign changes of the meridional potential vorticity gradient). Meanwhile, the development of terrain boundary layer reduces the Rossby deformation radius which, subsequently, enhances the likelihood for baroclinic short waves. Such effects are most pronounced in the late afternoon and therefore are supportive to the MP genesis around 00 UTC. Examination of GCM experiments with and without orography further supports the critical role of the Rocky Mountains and its associated boundary layer impacts on the formation of MPs.

Northwest flow severe weather outbreaks (NWF outbreaks) describe a type of summer convective storm that occurs in areas of mid-level NWF in the central United States. Convective storms associated with NWF outbreaks often travel a long distance systematically along a northwest-southeast oriented track across the northern plains. Previous studies have observed that these migrating convective storms are frequently coupled with subsynoptic-scale midtropospheric perturbations (MPs) initiated over the Rocky Mountains. This study traces MPs for the decade of 1997–2006 using the North American Regional Reanalysis to examine their climatology and possible influence on NWF outbreaks. MPs are characterized by a well organized divergent circulation with persistent ascending motion at the leading edge promoting convection. The divergent circulation is further enhanced by low-level convergence along the northern terminus of the Great Plains low-level jet. The downstream propagation of MPs assists in forming the progressive feature of the associated convective storms. MPs have a maximum frequency in July, consistent with NWF outbreaks. In July and August, the fully developed North American anticyclone produces prevailing NWF over the northern plains, where up to 60% of rainfall and storm reports are linked to MPs. The movement, timing and rainfall distribution of MPs remarkably resemble those of NWF outbreaks. When encountering strong low-level jets, ascending motion and convergence of water vapor flux associated with MPs intensify considerably and precipitation is greatly enhanced. It is likely that NWF outbreaks are generated whenever MPs occur in association with strong low-level jets.

Fig. 1 a July–August climatology of precipitation (contours; mm/day) and the topography (shadings), and b annual lightning frequency between 1997 and 2002 derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor onboard the TRMM satellite and between 1995 and 2000 by the Optical Transient Detector (Source: NASA Earth Observatory Webpage). The black dot in a marks Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital city The online version of the original article can be found under doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1376-2.

The atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) are investigated using available observational data from 1948 to 2007. Previous studies indicate that the Pacific QDO is characterized by a distinct lifecycle in the form of sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. In the warm and cool phases of the Pacific QDO, the SST patterns resemble those associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the warm–cool and cool–warm transitions of the Pacific QDO, recurrent SST patterns are also clearly visible. The rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis on the 10–15 year filtered data shows that the evolutions of SST and atmospheric circulation are well coupled. While the warm-/cool-phase Pacific QDO generates an ENSO-like circulation pattern, the transition phases form a distinct short-wave train emanating from Southeast Asia towards North America. This short-wave train is particularly robust in the streamfunction of water vapor flux. Diagnostic analyses of the heat budget, the stationary wave flux, and a barotropic model indicate that this short-wave train is thermodynamically maintained and is likely forced by diabatic heating near Southeast Asia. Additional modulations of forcing sources in the western and eastern tropical Pacific on this short-wave teleconnection are also discussed.