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The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ($$\Delta$$ Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ($$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ and $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different responses: for CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm or lower, the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO2 concentrations of 440 ppm or higher, the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures, degassing of CO2 and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the flush, the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO2 is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The existence of a threshold in CO2 concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing. If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system, the consequences would comprise a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm, an increase in global surface temperature of the order of 1–2°C, local temperature changes of the order of 6°C and a profound change in ocean stratification, deep water temperature and sea ice cover.

A global, flux-corrected climate model is em- ployed to predict the surface wind stress and associated wind-driven oceanic circulation for climate states corre- sponding to a doubling and quadrupling of the atmo- spheric CO2 concentration in a simple 1% per year CO2 increase scenario. The model indicates that in response to CO2 increase, the position of zero wind stress curl in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere shifts pole- ward. In addition, the wind stress intensifies significantly in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. As a result, the rate of water circulation in the subpolar meridional overturning cell in the Southern Ocean in- creases by about 6 Sv (1 Sv=10 6 m 3 s � 1 ) for doubled CO2 and by 12 Sv for quadrupled CO2, implying an in- crease of deep water upwelling south of the circumpolar flow and an increase of Ekman pumping north of it. In addition, the changes in the wind stress and wind stress curl translate into changes in the horizontal mass trans- port, leading to a poleward expansion of the subtropical gyres in both hemispheres, and to strengthening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Finally, the intensified near-surface winds over the Southern Ocean result in a substantial increase of mechanical energy supply to the ocean general circulation.

Different climate models simulate different behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the same global warming scenario. We propose a plausible explanation for this and argue that a proper simulation of the present-day climate in the subpolar North Atlantic is important. This is illustrated using results from idealized global warming experiments, in which both the radiative forcing scenario and the model employed are the same, with the only major difference being the initial subpolar North Atlantic climate. The initial conditions are made progressively colder, with more extensive sea-ice cover in the northern North Atlantic.The key result is that starting from conditions which are too cold in the North Atlantic and with sea-ice that is too extensive leads to an MOC that is more stable to the radiative forcing. Furthermore, under considerably underestimated sea surface temperatures in subpolar regions, the MOC can even intensify. A reduction of freshwater flux associated with the reduction of sea-ice melt is shown to be important for such unusual behavior of the MOC. Other mechanisms are also considered, but not deemed as important in explaining published inter-model differences.

We have studied the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to surface freshwater forcing using an ocean GCM coupled to an energy-moisture-balance atmosphere model. The overturning collapses rapidly when a slowly increasing forcing applied to the North Atlantic passes a positive threshold, and spins up equally quickly when the forcing falls below a negative threshold. This well-known behaviour is referred to as hysteresis because the thresholds in forcing are different for the transitions in opposite directions. However, we argue that the behaviour of the Atlantic salinity is more fundamental than the forcing. Hysteresis as a function of freshwater forcing occurs because the states with North Atlantic overturning “on” and “off” each tend to reinforce their associated salinity distributions and inhibit the transition to the other state. During the collapse, the Atlantic becomes less saline because of the import of 80 Sv year of freshwater by ocean transports across 30°S; during the spin-up this freshwater is exported again. We show that qualitatively similar hysteresis behaviour can be produced by perturbing the system without any net freshwater forcing. The salinity flip-flop is associated with the appearance and disappearance of a shallow reverse overturning circulation south of the Equator, which is present while the northern overturning is absent, and may provide the mechanism for the ocean freshwater influx during collapse.

The response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea surface height (SSH) and ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater fluxes is investigated using a high-resolution model. The model is forced with either present-day-like or projected warmer climate conditions. In general, the impact of meltwater on the North Atlantic SSH and ocean circulation depends on the surface climate. In the two major regions of deep water formation, the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, the basin-mean SSH increases with the increase of the GrIS meltwater flux. This SSH increase correlates with the decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, while in the Labrador Sea the warming forcing and GrIS meltwater input lead to sea level rise, in the Nordic Seas these two forcings have an opposite influence on the convective mixing and basin-mean SSH (relative to the global mean). The warming leads to less sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas, which favours stronger surface heat loss and deep mixing, lowering the SSH and generally increasing the transport of the East Greenland Current. In the Labrador Sea, the increased SSH and weaker deep convection are reflected in the decreased transport of the Labrador Current (LC), which closes the subpolar gyre in the west. Among the two major components of the LC transport, the thermohaline and bottom transports, the former is less sensitive to the GrIS meltwater fluxes under the warmer climate. The SSH difference across the LC, which is a component of the bottom velocity, correlates with the long-term mean AMOC rate.