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The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is known to affect the central to eastern (C–E) European summer climate through an associated atmospheric baroclinic response called North-Atlantic-European East West mode as demonstrated in the twentieth century reanalysis (20CRv2). Here, using the atmospheric model ECHAM6.3, we perform sensitivity experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are representative of the observed positive and the negative AMV phases and investigate the model response to the observed AMV pattern for European summer climate. The results from the experiments reveal that in the negative phase of AMV, the North-Atlantic-European (NAE) climate is mainly governed by the extra-tropical branch of the AMV through a baroclinic-like response. This response brings negative surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over C–E Europe. The response and its influence are similar to what is found in the 20CRv2. In contrast, in the positive phase of the AMV, the NAE climate in the model experiments is mainly influenced by the tropical branch of the AMV. A stationary Rossby wave response excited in the tropics is associated with negative SAT anomalies over C–E Europe, which is opposite to what is found in the 20CRv2. The model response from the tropical part of the AMV SST is unlikely to be realistic due to the lack of coupled air–sea interaction, when SST is specified. Hence, the results demonstrate that ECHAM6.3 can simulate the observed linear baroclinic response, but only in the negative phase of the AMV. For the positive phase, in agreement with the previous findings, the model response is very sensitive to the tropical branch of the AMV and unrealistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) against 10 years of RAPID/MOCHA AMOC observations, which are now long enough to remove the mean seasonal cycle prior to the hindcast skill analysis. We analyse AMOC hindcast skill in two hindcast ensembles generated with two differently initialised decadal prediction systems that are both based on the earth system model MPI-ESM. We evaluate the hindcast skill for the AMOC and its components in both prediction systems against RAPID/MOCHA observations both with and without the mean seasonal cycle removed using anomaly correlation (COR) and root-mean-square error as skill measures. We find significant hindcast skill for most lead years up to 5 for monthly-mean AMOC variations only in the newer of the two prediction systems and only using COR, but with and without the mean seasonal cycle removed. In both systems and for all analysed lead years, the two geostrophic transport components (the upper-mid-ocean transport and Florida Strait combined, that is: AMOC minus Ekman) are the main source of hindcast skill. In the present model setup and with the currently available observational time series, we cannot relate AMOC hindcast skill to the upper-mid-ocean transport alone. Yet, we can show that the seasonal variability of the upper-mid-ocean transport in the free coupled model originates from eastern boundary density variability. Overall, our results indicate modest yet robust AMOC hindcast skill above the uninitialized simulation, independent of the treatment of the seasonal cycle, although we cannot directly link this hindcast skill to the initialisation of the density field with either initialisation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2-5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2-5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed prominent multidecadal variations in the central to eastern (C-E) European summer temperature are closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis project version 2 data for the period of 1930-2012, we present a mechanism by which the multidecadal variations in the C-E European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. Our results suggest that over the north-western Atlantic, the positive heat flux anomaly triggers a surface baroclinic pressure response to diabatic heating with a negative surface pressure anomaly to the east of the heat source. Further downstream, this response induces an east-west wave-like pressure anomaly. The east-west wave-like response in the sea level pressure structure, to which we refer as North-Atlantic-European East West (NEW) mode, is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and is the principal mode of variations during summer over the Euro-Atlantic region at multidecadal time scales. The NEW mode causes warming of the C-E European region by creating an atmospheric blocking-like situation. Our findings also suggest that this NEW mode is responsible for the multidecadal variations in precipitation over the British Isles and north-western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate European summer (July-August) precipitation variability and its global teleconnections using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1950-2010) and a historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulation (1901-2005) carried out using the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model. A wavelike pattern is found in the upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa) similar to the summer circumglobal wave train (CGT) extending from the North Pacific to the Eurasian region. The positive phase of the CGT is associated with upper level anomalous low (high) pressure over western (eastern) Europe. It is further associated with a dipole-like precipitation pattern over Europe entailing significantly enhanced (reduced) precipitation over the western (eastern) region. The anomalous circulation features and associated summer precipitation pattern over Europe inverts for the negative CGT phase. Accordingly, the global teleconnection pattern of a precipitation index summarizing summer precipitation over Western Europe entails an upper level signature which consists of a CGT-like wave pattern extending from the North Pacific to Eurasia. The imprint of the CGT on European summer precipitation is distinct from that of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, despite the two modes of variability bear strong similarities in their upper level atmospheric pattern over Western Europe. The analysis of simulated CGT features and of its climatic implications for the European region substantiates the existence of the CGT-European summer precipitation connection. The summer CGT in the mid-latitude therefore adds to the list of the modes of large-scale atmospheric variability significantly influencing European summer precipitation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how differently-constructed indices for North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (NASSTs) describe the 'Atlantic Multidecadal Variability' (AMV) in a suite of unperturbed as well as externally-forced millennial (pre-industrial period) climate simulations. The simulations stem from an ensemble of Earth system models differing in both resolution and complexity. Different criteria exist to construct AMV indices capturing different aspects of the phenomenon. Although all representations of the AMV maintain strong multidecadal variability, they depict different characteristics of simulated low-frequency NASST variability, evolve differently in time and relate to different hemispheric teleconnections. Due to such multifaceted signatures in the ocean-surface as well as in the atmosphere, reconstructions of past AMV may not univocally reproduce multidecadal NASST variability. AMV features under simulated externally-forced pre-industrial climate conditions are not unambiguously distinguishable, within a linear framework, from AMV features in corresponding unperturbed simulations. This prevents a robust diagnosis of the simulated pre-industrial AMV as a predominantly internal rather than externally-forced phenomenon. We conclude that a multi-perspective assessment of multidecadal NASSTs variability is necessary for understanding the origin of the AMV, its physics and its climatic implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of the mid-latitude circulation on the surface heat low (HL) and associated monsoon rainfall over northwestern India and Pakistan using the ERA40 data and high resolution (T106L31) climate model ECHAM5 simulation. Special emphasis is given to the surface HL which forms over Pakistan and adjoining areas of India, Iran and Afghanistan during the summer season. A heat low index (HLI) is defined to depict the surface HL. The HLI displays significant correlations with the upper level mid-latitude circulation over western central Asia and low level monsoon circulation over Arabian Sea and acts as a bridge connecting the mid-latitude wave train to the Indian summer monsoon. A time-lagged singular value decomposition analysis reveals that the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude circumglobal wave train (CGT) influences the surface pressure anomalies over the Indian domain. The largest low (negative) pressure anomalies over the western parts of the HL region (i.e., Iran and Afghanistan) occur in conjunction with the upper level anomalous high that develops over western-central Asia during the positive phase of the CGT. The composite analysis also reveals a significant increase in the low pressure anomalies over Iran and Afghanistan during the positive phase of CGT. The westward increasing low pressure anomalies with its north-south orientation provokes enormous north-south pressure gradient (lower pressure over land than over sea). This in turn enables the moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea to penetrate farther northward over northwestern India and Pakistan. A monsoon trough like conditions develops over northwestern India and Pakistan where the moist southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf converge. The convergence in association with the orographic uplifting expedites convection and associated precipitation over northwestern India and Pakistan. The high resolution climate model ECHAM5 simulation also underlines the proposed findings and mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]