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This study investigates the robustness of the stratospheric pathway in linking the sea ice variability over the Barents-Kara Sea in late autumn and early winter to the mid-latitude circulation in the subsequent winter. Two groups of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, one with a well-resolved stratosphere (high-top models) and the other with a poorly-resolved stratosphere (low-top models) are explored to distinguish the role of the stratospheric pathway. The results show that, collectively, high-top models are able to capture the persistent mid-latitude circulation response in the subsequent winter. The response in low-top models is, however, weaker and not as long-lasting most likely due to lack of stratospheric variability. Analysis of eddy heat flux reveals that stronger vertical wave propagation leads to a stronger response in stratospheric polar vortex in high-top models. In particular, it shows that zonal wave-2 eddy heat flux is crucial in leading to a stronger linear constructive interference with the climatological waves in high-top models. The results find that multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 high-top models is able to capture the prolonged impact of sea ice variability on the mid-latitude circulation and out performs the low-top models in this regard. Our study suggests that the representation of the stratosphere in climate models plays an important role in amplifying and extending the mid-latitude circulation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms by which natural forcing factors alone could drive simulated multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are assessed in an ensemble of climate model simulations. It is shown for a new state-of-the-art general circulation model, HadGEM2-ES, that the most important of these natural forcings, in terms of the multidecadal response of the AMOC, is solar rather than volcanic forcing. AMOC strengthening occurs through a densification of the North Atlantic, driven by anomalous surface freshwater fluxes due to increased evaporation. These are related to persistent North Atlantic atmospheric circulation anomalies, driven by forced changes in the stratosphere, associated with anomalously weak solar irradiance during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Within a period of approximately 100 years the 11-year smoothed ensemble mean AMOC strengthens by 1.5 Sv and subsequently weakens by 1.9 Sv, representing respectively approximately 3 and 4 standard deviations of the 11-year smoothed control simulation. The solar-induced variability of the AMOC has various relevant climate impacts, such as a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, anomalous Amazonian rainfall, and a sustained increase in European temperatures. While this model has only a partial representation of the atmospheric response to solar variability, these results demonstrate the potential for solar variability to have a multidecadal impact on North Atlantic climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]