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It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Atlantic blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are two phenomena that have been extensively studied due to their significant spatio-temporal overlap. This work presents an index comparison study applied to this relationship, bringing light to how the strength of it varies considerably depending on blocking index choice and why this could be leading to discrepancies found in previous works. A PV–θ blocking index is used alongside a direction of breaking metric to classify blocking as either cyclonic or anticyclonic based on the Rossby wave breaking occurring at onset. These results are compared against those found using an absolute geopotential height (AGP) index. The analysis is performed using both area-averaged blocking count during winter and at each grid-point across the North Atlantic for all seasons. The study demonstrates that the choice of method significantly affects the results when correlating wintertime blocking and NAO. Blocks found using the AGP index show a much stronger correlation with the NAO compared to those found with the PV–θ index. Other analyses, such as frequency, duration, and composites, suggest that the AGP algorithm detects stronger, more mature, and persistent blocks, which promote a higher correlation with the NAO compared to the shorter-lived PV–θ blocks. Based on this analysis, it can be concluded that different blocking events are being measured between the two indices, contributing to the stark differences in the correlation analysis, each with their own advantages and disadvantages in relating blocking to the NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation into the Pacific decadal oscillation's (PDO's) role in modulating the intra-basin frequency of North Atlantic Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is carried out utilizing the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Several 15-year simulations are run with the model, each using a unique set of prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) corresponding to different phases and configurations of the PDO regressed on all 12 months of the climatological SSTs. Potential vorticity (PV) maps on the 200 hPa isobaric surface are used to detect anticyclonic RWB events. Results suggest that when the PDO is in its positive (negative) phase, a greater number of anticyclonic RWB events are recorded in the eastern (western) half of the North Atlantic. Additionally, PDO negative regimes are shown to drive more robust intra-basin RWB frequency changes than PDO positive regimes. Analysis of the large-scale circulation and synoptic environment changes imposed by the SST anomalies of each simulation reveals different pathways for Rossby wave train (RWT) development that, in turn, affect North Atlantic RWB statistics. When the PDO signals are divided into different components, the largest changes in RWB statistics are shown to occur whenever positive SST anomalies are present in the North Pacific, as these serve as fuel for high frequency RWT development and more dramatic changes to North Atlantic RWB statistics. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric preconditioning to RWB is explored and uncovered to considerably affect RWB statistics. Results from this study reaffirm the important role played by positive SST anomalies as year-round drivers of teleconnection patterns and inter-basin interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March–May (MAM), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of the subsurface precursor, defined as the buildup of heat content in the equatorial subsurface prior to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, to ENSO amplitude and predictability has been unclear for some time. To address the issue, this study implements a careful experimental design to construct three March-initialized precursor ensembles using CCSM4, one ensemble with ENSO-neutral initial conditions, one with a warm precursor in the subsurface, and one with a cold precursor. The initial precursors within each respective ensemble, although generated via identical wind forcing, differ slightly due to intrinsic sources of "noise" in the ocean and atmosphere. The ensembles are then integrated fully-coupled to produce a distribution of outcomes per each type of initial condition. Results show that a precursor is not essential to produce moderate El Niño and the full range of La Niña events, whereas a warm precursor is a necessary condition to generate extreme El Niño. The findings imply that extreme El Niño and the coldest La Niña events are fundamentally different. Presence of a warm (cold) precursor in the initial condition results in a warm (cold) shift and narrowing of the distribution of outcomes, suggesting increased predictability of El Niño (La Niña). Although the cold precursor is not necessary to produce La Niña, its presence in the initial condition reduces La Niña spread more than the warm precursor reduces El Niño spread. Despite the smaller ensemble spread for La Niña, signal-to-noise ratios indicate that El Niño may be more predictable than La Niña. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to have confidence in seasonal climate predictions of precipitation, particularly related to drought, as implications can be far-reaching and costly—this is particularly true for Florida. Precipitation can vary on fine spatial resolutions, and high-resolution coupled models may be needed to correctly represent precipitation variability. We study south Florida and southeast United States drought in Community Climate System version 4 low resolution (1° atmosphere/ocean) and high-resolution (0.5°atmosphere/0.1°ocean) predictions for time means ranging from 3 to 36 months. The very high-resolution in the ocean is of interest here given the potential importance of Gulf Stream on south Florida rainfall. Skill of shorter time-mean South Florida predictions (i.e. 3- and 12-months) are not impacted by increased resolution, but skill of 36-month mean south Florida precipitation is somewhat increased in the high resolution predictions. Notably, over the broader southeast United States the high-resolution model has higher skill for the 36-month mean rainfall predictions, associated with an improved relationship with tropical Pacific and Gulf Stream SSTA. Why this improvement in the broader southeast United States does not extend to Florida is an open question, but does suggest that even further resolution refinements may be needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forced response versus internally generated atmospheric variability or noise on the upper tropospheric Pacific North American circulation is investigated. The analysis is performed on the boreal winter (December–January–February) 200 hPa circulation and the associated precipitation based on observational records and modeling experiments. The model experiment includes an ocean eddy-resolving coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and an atmospheric noise reduced ocean eddy-resolving CGCM. The noise reduction technique is the interactive ensemble approach, adopted to reduce the effects of internal atmospheric dynamics noise at the air-sea interface. Tropical rainfall anomalies associated with ENSO forces a teleconnection pattern that is a combination of the so-called Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, themed here as state-dependent atmospheric noise, and a pattern distinct from the PNA, themed here as ENSO-signal. The ENSO signal has a meridional structure in the streamfunction associated with significant poleward Rossby wave flux emanating from the eastern Pacific. Conversely, the PNA teleconnection pattern is zonally oriented, with most of the wave flux in the zonal direction from the Pacific towards North America. The mid-latitude ENSO forced response is asymmetric between warm and cold events. This asymmetry is strongly dependent on the amplitude of atmospheric noise. It is shown that the ENSO forced response is masked by atmospheric noise, with the latter being 3–10 times larger in amplitude. We show that the PNA pattern was positive during the 2015–2016 boreal winter and prevented the large 2015–2016 El Niño event from alleviating the persistent drought in the western US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to determine the spatial–temporal scales where the SST forcing of the near-surface winds takes places, and its relationship with the action of coherent ocean eddies. Here, cross-spectral statistics are used to examine the relationship between satellite-based SST and 10-m wind speed (w) fields at scales between 10 2 –10 4 km and 10 1 –10 3 days. It is shown that the transition from negative SST/w correlations at large-scales to positive at oceanic mesoscales occurs at wavelengths coinciding with the atmospheric first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation; and that the dispersion of positively-correlated signals resembles tropical instability waves near the equator, and Rossby waves in the extratropics. Transfer functions are used to estimate the SST-driven w response in physical space ( w c ), a signal that explains 5–40% of the mesoscale w variance in the equatorial cold tongues, and 2–15% at extratropical SST fronts. The signature of ocean eddies is clearly visible in w c , accounting for 20–60% of its variability in eddy-rich regions. To provide further insight on the role of ocean eddies in the SST-driven coupling, the analysis is repeated for two climate model (CCSM) simulations using ocean grid resolutions of 1 ∘ (eddy-parameterized, LR) and 0. 1 ∘ (eddy-resolving, HR). The lack of resolved eddies in LR leads to a significantly underestimated mesoscale w variance relative to HR. Conversely, the w c variability in HR can exceed the satellite estimates by a factor of two at extratropical SST fronts and underestimate it by a factor of almost six near the equator, reflecting shortcomings of the CCSM to be addressed in its future developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite recent improvements in ENSO simulations, ENSO predictions ultimately remain limited by error growth and model inadequacies. Determining the accompanying dynamical processes that drive the growth of certain types of errors may help the community better recognize which error sources provide an intrinsic limit to predictability. This study applies a dynamical analysis to previously developed CCSM4 error ensemble experiments that have been used to model noise-driven error growth. Analysis reveals that ENSO-independent error growth is instigated via a coupled instability mechanism. Daily error fields indicate that persistent stochastic zonal wind stress perturbations $$(\tau_{x}^{\prime } )$$ near the equatorial dateline activate the coupled instability, first driving local SST and anomalous zonal current changes that then induce upwelling anomalies and a clear thermocline response. In particular, March presents a window of opportunity for stochastic $$\tau_{x}^{\prime }$$ to impose a lasting influence on the evolution of eastern Pacific SST through December, suggesting that stochastic $$\tau_{x}^{\prime }$$ is an important contributor to the spring predictability barrier. Stochastic winds occurring in other months only temporarily affect eastern Pacific SST for 2-3 months. Comparison of a control simulation with an ENSO cycle and the ENSO-independent error ensemble experiments reveals that once the instability is initiated, the subsequent error growth is modulated via an ENSO-like mechanism, namely the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback. Furthermore, unlike ENSO events that exhibit growth through the fall, the growth of ENSO-independent SST errors terminates once the seasonal strength of the Bjerknes feedback weakens in fall. Results imply that the heat content supplied by the subsurface precursor preceding the onset of an ENSO event is paramount to maintaining the growth of the instability (or event) through fall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using climate simulations from coupled and uncoupled general circulation models, this study investigates the influence of horizontal resolution in both atmospheric and oceanic model components on the mean precipitation over the Gulf Stream (GS) region. For this purpose, three sets of model experiments are analyzed. The first two examine the effects of increasing horizontal resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) gradually from 100 to 10 km under fixed oceanic settings. Specifically, the AGCM is either forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) (the first case) or coupled to a non-eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) at a fixed horizontal resolution near 100 km (the second case). The third set of experiments examines the effects of the oceanic resolution with a pair of long-term simulations by another coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM), in which the OGCM is run respectively at non-eddy-resolving (100 km) and eddy-resolving (10 km) resolutions, while the AGCM resolution remains fixed at 50 km for both runs. In general, all simulations qualitatively reproduce the gross features of the mean GS precipitation and its annual cycle. At similar AGCM resolutions, the uncoupled models produce a GS rain band that is more realistic in both structure and strength compared to the coupled models with non-eddy-resolving oceans. This is because the prescribed observed SST better represents the gradient near the oceanic front than the non-eddy-resolving OGCMs simulate. An increase from the baseline AGCM resolution produces enhanced climatological GS precipitation, both large-scale and convective, with the latter more tightly confined to the oceanic front. The enhancement, however, is moderate and further increases in resolution achieves diminishing results. On the other hand, an increase in oceanic resolution from non-eddy-resolving to eddy resolving scheme results in more consistent simulations with observations in both intensity and structure of the rain band. The major increase is in the convective precipitation near the much-tightened SST gradient associated with the oceanic front. Therefore, the intensity improvement caused by oceanic resolution increases is more effective than that from atmospheric resolution increases. Further analyses show that the improvement of Gulf Stream precipitation climatology due to model horizontal resolution increases can be understood in terms of the atmospheric surface pressure adjustment to the sharper SST gradient near the oceanic front, which leads to stronger atmospheric surface convergence and upper level divergence. The associated ascending motion contributes to the precipitation band located in the Gulf Stream. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has shown that there is significant diversity in the location of the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In one extreme, warm SSTA peak near the South American coast (often referred to as Eastern Pacific of EP El Niño), and at the other extreme, warm SSTA peak in the central Pacific (Central Pacific or CP El Niño). Due to the differing tropical Pacific SSTA and precipitation structure, there are differing extratropical responses, particularly over North America. Recent work involving the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) system for intra-seasonal to inter-annual prediction on prediction of the differences between El Niño events found excess warming in the eastern Pacific during CP El Niño events. This manuscript investigates the ensemble and observational agreement of the NMME system when forecasting the North American response to the diversity of ENSO, focusing on regional land-based 2-meter temperature and precipitation. NMME forecasts of North American precipitation and T2m agree with observations more often during EP events. Ensemble agreement of NMME forecasts is regional. For instance, ensemble agreement in Southeast North America demonstrates a strong connection to NINO3 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Ensemble agreement in Northwest North America demonstrates a weak connection to NINO4 precipitation and SSTA amplitude during warm ENSO events. Still other regions do not show a strong connection between ensemble agreement and strength of warm ENSO events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A noise reduction technique, namely the interactive ensemble (IE) approach is adopted to reduce noise at the air-sea interface due to internal atmospheric dynamics in a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The IE technique uses multiple realization of atmospheric general circulation models coupled to a single ocean general circulation model. The ensembles mean fluxes from the atmospheric simulations are communicated to the ocean component. Each atmospheric simulation receives the same SST coming from the ocean component. The only difference among the atmospheric simulations comes from perturbed initial conditions, thus the atmospheric states are, in principle synoptically independent. The IE technique can be used to better understand the importance of weather noise forcing of natural variability such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To study the impact of weather noise and resolution in the context of a CGCM, two IE experiments are performed at different resolutions. Atmospheric resolution is an important issue since the noise statistics will depend on the spatial scales resolved. A simple formulation to extract atmospheric internal variability is presented. The results are compared to their respective control cases where internal atmospheric variability is left unchanged. The noise reduction has a major impact on the coupled simulation and the magnitude of this effect strongly depends on the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component model. Specifically, applying the noise reduction technique reduces the overall climate variability more effectively at higher resolution. This suggests that 'weather noise' is more important in sustaining climate variability as resolution increases. ENSO statistics, dynamics, and phase asymmetry are all modified by the noise reduction, in particular ENSO becomes more regular with less phase asymmetry when noise is reduced. All these effects are more marked for the higher resolution case. In contrast, ENSO frequency is unchanged by the reduction in the weather noise, but its phase-locking to the annual cycle is strongly dependent on noise and resolution. At low resolution the noise structure is similar to the signal, whereas the spatial structure of the noise deviates from the spatial structure of the signal as resolution increases. It is also suggested that event-to-event differences are largely driven by atmospheric noise as opposed to chaotic dynamics within the context of the large-scale coupled system, suggesting that there is a well-defined 'canonical' event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the early and late rainy seasons and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea interaction based on observational estimates, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and the CFS retrospective forecasts. Analysis of the observational estimates indicates that air-sea interaction is important over the Caribbean Sea, whereas the atmospheric forcing of SST dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The CFS simulation captures the basic elements of this observed air-sea relationship. The GFS simulation produces spurious SST forcing of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico largely due to prescribing SST. The CFS forecasts capture the air-sea relationship in the late rainy season (August-October), but cannot reproduce the SST forcing of atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in the early rainy season (May-July). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that the leading modes of percent anomalies of the rainy season precipitation have the largest loading in the southern Caribbean Sea in observations. The model simulations and forecasts skillfully reproduce the spatial pattern, but not the temporal evolution. The Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the early rainy season is mainly due to the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomalies in observations, is contributed by both the TNA and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) SST anomalies in the CFS simulation, and has an overly large impact from the EEP SST anomalies in the GFS simulation and the CFS forecasts. The observed Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the late rainy season has a leading impact from the EEP SST anomalies, with a secondary contribution from the TNA SST anomalies. In comparison, the model simulations and forecasts overestimate the impacts of the EEP SST anomalies due to an earlier development and longer duration of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the CFS compared to observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extratropical response to tropical remote forcing has been examined with so-called tropical ocean-global atmosphere experiments, which use prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and a slab mixed-layer ocean model elsewhere. In this study we have revisited this experimental design and found that the extratropical response is quite sensitive to the meridional extent of tropical prescribed SST domain. Even in the case of a prescribed annual cycle only (i.e., no ENSO), the differences in the prescribed SST regions lead to different atmospheric motions in the adjacent extratropics. When the tropical forcing includes ENSO, the sensitivity to the meridional domain is more prominent, especially during La Niña events. In La Niña, the prescribed SST is warmer than the simulated SST in the northern subtropics, and the warmer SST differences continue to 30°N. This broad SST differences accompany enhanced atmospheric meridional circulation that directly connects the tropics and extratropics within the Pacific basin. Moreover, the Rossby wave excitation also increases, so the effect of prescribed region difference is felt beyond the Pacific basin. On the other hand, the effect of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalie (i.e., ENSO experiment composite minus control experiment annual cycle, both of which have the same prescribed SST domain) is stronger in the broad tropical forcing experiment. However, the ENSO anomaly composite from own annual cycle is similar regardless of the meridional extent of forcing region, and commonly mimics the Northern Hemisphere El Niño composite of nature in the boreal winter season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The periodicity of ENSO in nature varies. Here we examine how changes in the frequency of ENSO impacts remote teleconnections in the North Pacific. The numerical experiments presented here are designed to simulate perfectly periodic ENSO in the tropical Pacific, and to enable the air–sea interaction in other regions (i.e., the North Pacific) via a simple mixed layer ocean model. The temporal evolution and spatial structure of the North Pacific SST teleconnection patterns are relatively insensitive to the frequency of ENSO, but the amplitude of the variability is sensitive. Specifically, the 2-year period ENSO experiment (P2) shows weak event-by-event consistency in the ENSO response mature pattern. This is because there is not enough time to damp the previously forced ENSO teleconnections (i.e., 1 year earlier). The 4-year period ENSO experiment (P4) has 1 year damping time before a successive ENSO event matures, so the structure of the response pattern is stably repeated. However, the event-by-event variance of anomaly magnitude, specifically responding to El Niño, is still larger than that in the 6-year ENSO experiment (P6), which has 2-year damping time between consecutive ENSO events. In addition, we tested whether the variability due to tropical remote forcing is linearly independent of the extratropical local variability. Statistical tests indicate that tropical remote forcing can constructively or destructively interfere with local variability in the North Pacific. Lastly, there is a non-linear rectification of the ENSO events that can be detected in the climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can induce anomalous convection through surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence. This SST forcing of the atmosphere is indicated in a positive local rainfall–SST correlation. Anomalous convection can feedback on SST through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation effects and wind-induced oceanic mixing and upwelling. These atmospheric feedbacks are reflected in a negative local rainfall–SST tendency correlation. As such, the simultaneous rainfall–SST and rainfall–SST tendency correlations can indicate the nature of local air–sea interactions. Based on the magnitude of simultaneous rainfall–SST and rainfall–SST tendency correlations, the present study identifies three distinct regimes of local air–sea interactions. The relative importance of SST forcing and atmospheric forcing differs in these regimes. In the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and, to a smaller degree, in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, SST forcing dominates throughout the year and the surface heat flux acts mainly as a damping term. In the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions, SST forcing and atmospheric forcing dominate alternatively in different seasons. Atmospheric forcing dominates in the local warm/rainy season. SST forcing dominates with a positive wind-evaporation feedback during the transition to the cold/dry season. SST forcing also dominates during the transition to the warm/rainy season but with a negative cloud-radiation feedback. The performance of atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed SST is closely linked to the regime of air–sea interaction. The forced simulations have good performance when SST forcing dominates. The performance is low or poor when atmospheric forcing dominates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) variations include negative feedbacks from the atmosphere, whereas SST anomalies are specified in stand-alone atmospheric general circulation simulations. Is the SST forced response the same as the coupled response? In this study, the importance of air–sea coupling in the Indian and Pacific Oceans for tropical atmospheric variability is investigated through numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The local and remote impacts of the Indian and Pacific Ocean coupling are obtained by comparing a coupled simulation with an experiment in which the SST forcing from the coupled simulation is specified in either the Indian or the Pacific Ocean. It is found that the Indian Ocean coupling is critical for atmospheric variability over the Pacific Ocean. Without the Indian Ocean coupling, the rainfall and SST variations are completely different throughout most of the Pacific Ocean basin. Without the Pacific Ocean coupling, part of the rainfall and SST variations in the Indian Ocean are reproduced in the forced run. In regions of large mean rainfall where the atmospheric negative feedback is strong, such as the North Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific in boreal summer, the atmospheric variability is significantly enhanced when air–sea coupling is replaced by specified SST forcing. This enhancement is due to the lack of the negative feedback in the forced SST simulation. In these regions, erroneous atmospheric anomalies could be induced by specified SST anomalies derived from the coupled model. The ENSO variability is reduced by about 20% when the Indian Ocean air–sea coupling is replaced by specified SST forcing. This change is attributed to the interfering roles of the Indian Ocean SST and Indian monsoon in western and central equatorial Pacific surface wind variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]