1. A sub-monthly timescale causality between snow cover and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere inferred by Liang–Kleeman information flow analysis.
- Author
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Takaya, Yuhei, Komatsu, Kensuke K., Ganeshi, Naresh Govind, Toyoda, Takahiro, and Hasumi, Hiroyasu
- Subjects
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ATMOSPHERIC temperature , *SURFACE temperature , *LAND-atmosphere interactions , *PREDICTION models - Abstract
Land snow is considered one of the important Earth system elements altering sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) atmospheric variability and predictability. However, the causal relationship in the snow–atmosphere interaction and its impact on S2S predictability are still not clearly understood. In this study, we investigated the sub-monthly causal relationship between observed snow cover (SC) and surface air temperature (SAT) in the Northern Hemisphere. We used Liang–Kleeman information flow analysis to scrutinise the direction of causation and identify "cold spots" where SC conditions actively influence SAT on a sub-monthly timescale. The cold spots were identified by geographical location and season: North Eurasia in September and October; East Siberia in October and May; Canada in November; East Asia in November and March; Central Asia in October and November; and East Europe in March. Results based on snow water equivalent instead of SC also confirmed the cold spots identified in SC. Furthermore, we evaluated the SC–SAT causal relation in operational S2S prediction models. The results indicated that the S2S models underestimate the SC influence on SAT to greater or lesser degrees, implying the deficiencies in the models. This study emphasises the importance of faithfully reproducing the SC effect on SAT in S2S models for further possible improvements in sub-seasonal prediction skill. The findings renew a fundamental understanding of the snow–atmosphere interaction and sub-seasonal predictability arising from land snow conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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