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Seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) strength is probably one of the most challenging and crucial issues for climate prediction over East Asia. In this paper, a statistical method called partial-least square (PLS) regression is utilized to uncover principal sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the winter preceding the EASM. Results show that the SST pattern of the first PLS mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (or cooling) phase of a mega-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (mega-ENSO) (a leading mode of interannual-to-interdecadal variations of global SST), whereas that of the second PLS mode leads the warming/cooling mega-ENSO by about 1 year, signaling precursory conditions for mega-ENSO. These indicate that mega-ENSO may provide a critical predictability source for the EASM strength. Based on a 40-year training period (1958-1997), a PLS prediction model is constructed using the two leading PLS modes and 3-month-lead hindcasts are performed for the validation period of 1998-2013. A promising skill is obtained, which is comparable to the ensemble mean of versions 3 and 4 of the Canadian Community Atmosphere Model (CanCM3/4) hindcasts from the newly developed North American Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System regarding the interannual variations of the EASM strength. How to improve dynamical model simulation of the EASM is also examined through comparing the CanCM3/4 hindcast (1982-2010) with the 106-year historical run (1900-2005) by the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). CanCM3/4 exhibits a high skill in the EASM hindcast period 1982-2010 during which it also has a better performance in capturing the relationship between the EASM and mega-ENSO. By contrast, the simulation skill of CanESM2 is quite low and it is unable to reproduce the linkage between the EASM and mega-ENSO. All these results emphasize importance of mega-ENSO in seasonal prediction and dynamical model simulation of the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits significant variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal time scales and the variability can be extended to Holocene centennial and millennial scales. Previous Holocene EAWM proxy data records, which were mostly located in Central, Eastern and Southern China, did not show a consistent Holocene EAWM history. Therefore, it is difficult to provide insights into mechanisms of the long-term winter monsoon variability on the basis of the records. Eolian sediments at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert, Western China, are sensitive to the EAWM changes and less affected by the East Asian summer monsoon due to an obstruction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper presents a comparison between a well-dated Holocene EAWM record and coupled climate model simulations, so as to explore physical processes and influencing factors of the Holocene EAWM. Sediment samples from two Holocene eolian sedimentary sections [Huangyanghe (a) and Huangyanghe (b)] were acquired at the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Chronologies were established based on twenty bulk organic matter AMS C ages and five pollen concentrates AMS C ages. Proxy data, including grain-size, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate content were obtained from the two eolian sections. The grain-size standard deviation model was applied to determine components sensitive to variability of the Holocene EAWM. After a comparison of environmentally-sensitive grain-size components and proxy data, the 20-200 μm component at the Huangyanghe (a) and the 20-159 μm component at the Huangyanghe (b) section were selected as indicators of the Holocene EAWM, which show a strong early Holocene winter monsoon and a decline of the winter monsoon since the mid-Holocene. We also present equilibrium and transient simulations of the climate evolution for the Holocene using a state-of-art coupled climate model: the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Indices for the Holocene EAWM were calculated and are consistent with the reconstructed Holocene EAWM intensity. The simulations indicate that orbital forcing effects on the land-sea temperature and sea level pressure contrast can account for the observed EAWM trends. Other forcings that were present in the early Holocene, including the remnant Laurentide ice sheet and meltwater forcing in the North Atlantic, were not responsible for the Holocene trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large intraseasonal variation in geopotential height over the Central Asia region, where the Asian subtropical jet is located, occurs between May and June, and the most dominant variation has a wave-like distribution. This variation in geopotential height influences precipitation across South and Southeast Asia. In this paper, we use composite analysis to determine the causes of this intraseasonal variation over Central Asia. The wave train propagates from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia over a period of a week, and generates an anomaly in geopotential height over the region. The tropical disturbance, which is similar to the Madden-Julian oscillation, appears a few days before the maximum of the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia, and is accompanied by active convection over the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection over Central America. Results of numerical experiments using a linear baroclinic model show that the active convection over the northern Indian Ocean causes the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia. The wave train that extends from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia is generated by negative thermal forcing over Central America, and the phase distribution of this wave train is similar to that observed in the composite analysis. Central Asia is the region where the effects of the tropics and middle latitudes overlap, and it is an important connection point between the Asian monsoon and middle latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the contributions of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local land surface processes to precipitation is essentially important for the climate prediction. This study adopts a dynamic adjustment (DA) approach based on constructed circulation analogs to quantitatively isolate the contribution of atmospheric circulation to summer land precipitation (Pr) over Asian mid-low latitudes during 1980–2019. The atmospheric circulation factor is represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500), and the residual component after DA is regarded as the contribution from land surface processes via evaporation mainly resulting from soil moisture (SM). The results indicate that the key SM-Pr feedback areas are mainly located in northeast China and the northern Indian Peninsula. The key influencing area of Z500 on the land Pr anomaly shows a "- + -" tripole pattern in the mid-latitude region. Atmospheric circulation determines the magnitude of summer land Pr, while the residual components reflect the land–atmosphere coupling effect and dominate Pr trend. This conclusion is helpful for better understanding the evolution mechanism of summer climate over Asia mid-low latitudes and may also have application value for climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cut-off lows are crucial extratropical circulation systems that can bring weather extremes over large areas, but the mechanism responsible for the life cycle of cut-off lows remains elusive. From a perspective of regional eddy-mean flow interaction, this study investigates the dynamical processes controlling the evolution of early-summer cut-off lows over Northeast Asia using the 6-hourly reanalysis data. Through the diagnostic of local wave activity (LWA) budget, we show that the cut-off low is initialized by a Rossby wave train originated from the subpolar North Atlantic, and then reinforced rapidly by zonal LWA flux convergence and local baroclinic eddy generation, and eventually decayed through energy dispersion by zonal wave activity advection. Furthermore, we show that the evolutions of the above dynamical processes are strongly modulated by the changes of background flow. In early summer, Northeast Asia is located at the eastern exit of the midlatitude jet to the north of the subtropical jet and exhibits a weak meridional gradient of potential vorticity, which favors frequent formation of cyclonic anomaly and energy accumulation. Prior to the onset of cut-off lows by several days, a Rossby wave train propagates along the Eurasian midlatitude jet, which initializes a cyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia. With the aid of mean flow advection of anomalous zonal momentum, the zonal winds are then decelerated at the midlatitude jet exit and accelerated at the subtropical jet center. The former obstructs the wave packet proceeding downstream and the latter favors stronger baroclinic eddy generation below the subtropical jet. The two processes together maintain and strengthen the cyclonic anomaly in Northeast Asia rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using reanalysis datasets and a coupled general circulation model, the relationship between springtime Arctic total column ozone (TCO) and surface (5 m) ocean currents in the North Pacific is investigated. We found that as March Arctic TCO decreases, a statistically significant northwestward ocean current anomaly occurs in the northern North Pacific in surface layer, but an anomalous southward ocean current appears in the central North Pacific in April, and vice versa. The decreased Arctic TCO favors an enhanced Arctic stratospheric circulation, which tends to induce the tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation anomaly with easterly anomalies over the midlatitude eastern Asia in late March through stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling. The easterly anomaly over eastern Asia in late March further extends eastward and induces an easterly anomaly over the midlatitude North Pacific, which favors negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like circulation anomaly via anomalous zonal wind shear and the interactions between synoptic scale eddies and the mean flow in early-middle April. The –NPO anomaly forces anomalous northwestward/southward surface ocean currents in the northern/central North Pacific through direct friction of wind and the Coriolis force. Our coupled numerical simulations with high- and low-ozone scenarios also support that the Arctic stratospheric ozone affects the North Pacific surface ocean currents by NPO anomalies. Moreover, the ozone-related ocean current anomalies contribute to Victoria mode-like sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific by horizontal heat advection. These results imply that Arctic ozone signal could be a predictor for variations of the North Pacific surface ocean currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term multi-decadal scale variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) is known to be associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with positive phase associated with above-normal rainfall and vice-versa over SASM region. Analysis of the 120-year historical record suggests that the relationship between the AMO and the SASM has weakened in recent decades. Two possible reasons emerge from the analyses of observational datasets and model experiments. Enhanced Indian Ocean warming and weakened North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) are the prime factors weakening AMO-SASM association in the recent decades. Indian Ocean warming co-occurred during the recent AMO warm phase weakens the meridional temperature gradient, weakening the regional Hadley cell, large-scale monsoon circulation and precipitation. The suppressed convection triggers a Rossby wave which manifests as a cyclonic circulation over west central Asia weakening the Tibetan anticyclone. In addition, weakening of NASH weakens the Circum-Global Teleconnection (CGT) connecting AMO to the SASM, leading to weakening of AMO-SASM association. Projected warming of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic demands better understanding of the AMO-SASM teleconnection and their projected changes for assessing future changes in SASM in a warming world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal forecasts of summer continental United States (CONUS) rainfall have relatively low skill, partly due to a lack of consensus about its sources of predictability. The East Asian monsoon (EAM) can excite a cross-Pacific Rossby wave train, also known as the Asia–North America (ANA) teleconnection. In this study, we analyze the ANA teleconnection in observations and model simulations from the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5 (CAM5), comparing experiments with prescribed climatological SSTs and prescribed observed SSTs. Observations indicate a statistically significant relationship between a strong EAM and increased probability of positive precipitation anomalies over the US west coast and the Plains-Midwest. The ANA teleconnection and CONUS rainfall patterns are improved in the CAM5 experiment with prescribed observed SSTs, suggesting that SST variability is necessary to simulate this teleconnection over CONUS. We find distinct ANA patterns between ENSO phases, with the La Niña-related patterns in CAM5 disagreeing with observations. Using linear steady-state quasi-geostrophic theory, we conclude that incorrect EAM forcing location greatly contributed to CAM5 biases, and jet stream disparities explained the ENSO-related biases. Finally, we compared EAM forcing experiments with different mean states using a simple dry nonlinear atmospheric general circulation model. Overall, the ANA pattern over CONUS and its modulation by ENSO forcing are well described by dry dynamics on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, including the constructive (destructive) interference between El Niño (La Niña) modulation and the ANA patterns over CONUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemisphere planetary waves exhibit an abrupt change in early summer and a significant impact on East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Although great achievements have been made toward understanding the characteristics and maintenance of planetary waves during winter and summer, the transition of planetary waves during the abrupt-change period is less well understood. This study aims to assess the relative contribution of harmonic waves to the planetary wave transition and mechanism from the perspective of full nonlinear responses to the mountains of Asia (above 500 m) during May and June, with a primary focus on the largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. The largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia is primarily contributed by wavelengths of around 7000 km, which corresponds to zonal wavenumber 3. The mid–high latitudes planetary waves mainly consist of wavelengths of around 10,000 km (zonal wavenumber 2, roughly) and 7000 km, which are in-phase (out-of-phase) with each other over the Western (Eastern) Hemisphere. Wavelengths of around 10,000 km weaken and displace eastward, while those of 7000 km magnify and hence contribute to the largest positive geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. The full nonlinear response to the forcing by the mountains of Asia provides a considerable contribution to the largest geopotential height anomaly over northeastern Asia. Such a positive contribution comes mainly from the full nonlinear response to sensible heating associated with the mountains over Asia, which is partially offset by the full nonlinear response to dynamical forcing of the Asian mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relative Humidity (RH) in the arid region of the Tarim Basin is crucial for many reasons. The Tarim Basin has experienced a tendency to become wetter in recent decades, and the RH there also shows an increase over the past decade. However, there has been little examination of these RH changes and especially the changes to the extremes. This study investigates the changes in extreme values and the probability density function (PDF) of summer RH using quantile regression during 2006–2018 to understand the possible reasons for the increase in the summer RH anomaly. We find that extremely high values of RH show a consistent significant increase, while extremely low values have no regionally consistent tendency. The overall average value of RH in the Tarim Basin becomes higher, contributed by the upper half of the PDF. To explore the physical mechanism for these changes, we examine the corresponding regional meteorological anomaly patterns. The patterns indicate that the anomalous southwesterly airflow at 500hPa brings ample moisture into the basin and the ground in the middle of the basin significantly cools down when an extreme wet event occurs, promoting the occurrence of the extreme high RH. In this process, the contributions of water vapor transport and temperature are of equal significance though with different relative timing. These corresponding regional meteorological patterns occur more often in the most recent decade, which coincides with the recent increase in RH extremes in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our confidence in future climate projection depends on the ability of climate models to simulate the current climate, and model performance in simulating atmospheric circulation affects its ability of simulating extreme events. In this study, the self-organizing map (SOM) method is used to evaluate the frequency, persistence, and transition characteristics of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for different ensembles of daily 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) in Asia, and then all ensembles are ranked according to a comprehensive ranking metric (MR). Our results show that the SOM method is a powerful tool for assessing the daily-scale circulation simulation skills in Asia, and the results will not be significantly affected by different map sizes. Positive associations between each two of the performance in frequency, persistence and transition were found, indicating that a good ensemble of simulation for one metric is good for the others. The r10i1p1f1 ensemble of CanESM5 best simulates Z500 in Asia comprehensively, and it is also the best of simulating frequency characteristics. The MR simulation of the highest 10 ensembles for the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and the South Asia High (SAH) are far better than those of the lowest 10. Such differences may lead to errors in the simulation of extreme events. This study will help future studies in the choice of ensembles with better circulation simulation skills to improve the credibility of their conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture is a key variable of the land surface and its variations are an important issue in climate studies. In this study, we employed the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for 20 ensemble member simulations of the 50-year period from 1965 to 2014 and used canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and multiple regression to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture predictability. The effects of soil moisture persistence and sea surface temperature (SST) as an external forcing on its predictability were analyzed. Results show that the soil moisture predictability due to its persistence is 1–2 months and considering SST as an external forcing can significantly increase its predictability. Regions that exhibit a significant increase in predictability are mainly tropical regions, North America and Western Asia during winter and spring. In tropical regions, SST increases the predictability of soil moisture by influencing the local surface temperature and precipitation. In other regions, the effects of SST on wind speed, cloud cover, and surface evaporation also contribute significantly to the increase in soil moisture predictability. The results were validated through the analysis based on soil moisture data from land data assimilation system and observed precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of observational precipitation indicates that in last few decades, the precipitation in boreal summer (June–August) over the South China Sea (SCS) exhibited an interdecadal variation, characterized by a decrease of 0.59 mm/day from the period 1964–1981 to the period 1994–2011. Accompanied this decrease in precipitation is weakened monsoon circulation featured by an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the SCS in the later period relative to the early period. This work investigates impacts of anthropogenic forcing changes on this interdecadal change in observations, quantify the relative roles of greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing. A set of experiments is designed using the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model coupled to a multi-level mixed-layer ocean model forced with GHG concentrations and AA emissions in two periods. Modeling results indicate a dominant role of anthropogenic forcing on the observed interdecadal precipitation decrease and weakened monsoon circulation over the SCS in the late twentieth century in which AA forcing plays a more important role compared with GHG forcing. The mechanisms of GHG influences and AA induced changes are revealed by individual forcing experiments. Increasing GHG concentrations can suppress convection over the SCS summer monsoon region by warming the tropical Pacific with an El-Niño like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, which is associated with a weakened Walker circulation. The changes in AA emissions, mainly through increases in emissions over Asia, lead to cool SST in the north Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific (WNP), and result in changes in meridional SST gradient over the tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP in pre-monsoon seasons. This anomalous meridional SST gradient leads to anomalous local Hadley circulation, characterized by anomalous ascents around the equator and descents over monsoon region, which suppresses convection over the SCS and reduces local precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a typical arid and semi-arid area, central Asia (CA) has scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In this study, dynamic downscaling was conducted to produce a regional dataset that incorporated the time period 1986–2100 for the CA. The results show that dynamic downscaling significantly improves the simulation for the mean and extreme climate over the CA, compared to the driving CCSM4 model. We show that significant warming will occur over CA with 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C increasing under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively by the end of twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature, the daily minimum temperature and the annual total number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 25 °C will also increase significantly. The annual total number of days with a minimum temperature less than 0 °C will decrease significantly. Long-term trends in the projected winter precipitation under different emission scenarios exhibit robust and increasing changes during the twenty-first century, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario with an increasing about 0.1 mm/day. Significant differences are shown in the projection of precipitation-related indices over CA under different emission scenarios, and the impact of emissions is apparent for the number of days with ≥ 10 mm of precipitation, the density of precipitation on days with ≥ 1 mm of precipitation, and particularly for the maximum consecutive number of dry days that will increase significantly under the RCP8.5 scenario. Therefore, reduced greenhouse gases emissions have implications for mitigating extreme drought events over the CA in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface air temperature is an important factor for human quality of life and is a key marker of global climate change. Understanding multidecadal changes in surface air temperature, and accurately predicting future trends, are therefore important for economic development. In this work, we explore multidecadal variability in East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT). We find that EASAT shows a strong multidecadal variability between 1900 and 2017. Observational analysis shows that annual EASAT multidecadal variability is highly associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and the NAO leads detrended annual EASAT by 15–20 years. Further analysis illustrates that the NAO precedes annual EASAT multidecadal variability through its leading effect on the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The AMO influences annual EASAT multidecadal variability through the Africa–Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict annual EASAT. The model is able to better hindcast annual EASAT based on different periods of the time-series. Due to the joint influences of NAO multidecadal variability and the forcing associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, annual EASAT for 2018–2034 is predicted to remain at its current level or even slightly lower, followed by a period of fast warming over the following decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior global climate model (GCM) experiments have shown that the Tibetan Plateau and related orography play a significant role in enhancing the Indian Monsoon, particularly during its onset, and the East Asian monsoon. However, these experiments have been largely performed with atmosphere-only, lower-resolution GCMs that neglect the influence of atmosphere–ocean coupling, and do not resolve tropical cyclones (TCs). Here we explore the influence of Asian orography on tropical circulations in a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM at two different atmosphere/land resolutions (∼ 50 and 200 km), and with or without atmosphere–ocean coupling. Atmosphere–ocean coupling is found to play a significant role in the precipitation response due to the Asian orography, enhancing the precipitation increase over the Western North Pacific (hereafter WNP), and drying the Arabian Sea. In these same regions, the higher resolution model, which resolves TCs up to category 3, suggests that Asian orography has a significant influence on TCs, increasing TC frequency in the WNP, and decreasing it in the Arabian Sea. However, in contrast to precipitation, this TC response does not appear to be strongly affected by the atmosphere–ocean coupling. Connections between the direct atmospheric circulation response to Asian orography, ocean circulation changes, and these various effects on precipitation and tropical cyclones are analyzed and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the parameterization of sea surface turbulent heat flux in National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) is improved by including the contribution of mesoscale convective motion (i.e., mesoscale enhancement). The effect of mesoscale enhancement on the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is further explored with SST-forced experiments that are conducted for the period of January 1979 to December 2015. Experiments suggest that the standard CAM5 exhibits evident biases in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon system. For example, the simulated westerlies at 850 hPa in low latitude of East Asia are too weak, the precipitations in the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, and the tropical western Pacific are underestimated, the simulated south Asia and western Pacific subtropical highs are too weak, and the upper and middle troposphere in the low latitudes of East Asia is too cold. By including the mesoscale enhancement in CAM5, these biases are clearly reduced. For example, the simulated summer mean precipitation in the Bay of Bengal is increased from 9.85 to 11.76 mm/day, which is closer to the observed value of 13.80 mm/day. Further analyses show that the improvements in the East Asian summer monsoon precipitations and circulations can be attributed to the enhancement of convections and the increase in water evaporation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean induced by mesoscale enhancement. Correspondingly, the latent heat due to vapor condensation in the atmosphere also increases, which reduces the cold bias in the mid-upper troposphere. Meanwhile, the geopotential height of the upper-middle-level atmosphere is elevated, which makes the simulated intensity of the south Asian and the western Pacific subtropical highs, two important components of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation, closer to the reality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban land use in East China has undergone considerable change since the 1990s. How such change affects both in situ and remote climate conditions is investigated through numerical modelling experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1. The results show that urbanization causes an increase in surface temperature due to reduced surface albedo but a decrease in specific humidity due to locally reduced surface evaporation. The change in specific humidity overwhelms the surface temperature change effect, leading to locally reduced precipitation. It is noted that urbanization causes changes in climate conditions not only locally but also remotely. Anomalous low-level divergence associated with the reduced precipitation in situ prevents the northward progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. As a result, the major monsoon rain band is strengthened and confined over South China and the tropical Asian monsoon zone along 12°–25°N. The increase of rainfall in the tropical zone, on one hand, induces the local overturning cell, leading to anomalous subsidence over mid-latitude Asia and the equatorial zone, and, on the other hand, perturbs the Subtropical Jet, generating a Rossby wave train disseminating along the Jet. Both of these processes cause anomalous dry and hot conditions over mid-latitude Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting seasonal variations in European summer weather represents a considerable challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a seasonal forecasting model at representing a major mode of northern hemisphere summer climate variability, the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and the implications of errors in its representation on seasonal forecasts for the European summer (June, July, August). Using seasonal hindcasts initialised at the start of May, we find that the model skill for forecasting the interannual variability of 500 hPa geopotential height is poor, particularly over Europe and several other "centres of action" of the CGT. The model also has a weaker CGT pattern than is observed, particularly in August, when the observed CGT wavetrain is strongest. We investigate several potential causes of this poor skill. First, model variance in geopotential height in west-central Asia (an important region for the maintenance of the CGT) is lower than observed in July and August, associated with a poor representation of the link between this region and Indian monsoon precipitation. Second, analysis of the Rossby wave source shows that the source associated with monsoon heating is both too strong and displaced to the northeast in the model. This is related to errors in monsoon precipitation over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, where the model has more precipitation than is observed. Third, the model jet is systematically shifted northwards by several degrees latitude over large parts of the northern hemisphere, which may affect the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous observational analyses show that the land-surface diurnal temperature range (DTR) has decreased in the past 6 decades worldwide. Based on a newly developed China Meteorological Administration-Land Surface Air Temperature (CMA-LSAT) dataset, we analyzed the DTR changes between 1901 and 2014. Results indicate that the global land surface DTR significantly decreased at a rate of − 0.036 °C decade− 1 over the 1901-2014 period, mainly due to the large decrease in DTR from 1951 to 2014. For the first half of the twentieth century, most grid boxes (spatial resolution 5° × 5°) show a positive DTR trend, with the positive trends of 32.4% grid boxes being statistically significant, leading to a large and significant increase of 0.048 °C decade− 1 in DTR. However, a dramatic reversal in DTR change occurred in early 1950s, with most parts of global lands exhibiting a shift from increasing to decreasing trends. The global land average DTR decrease during 1951-2014 was − 0.054 °C decade− 1, with 45.0% grid boxes showing significant negative trends. The reverse phenomenon is more obvious in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere. For the periods 1979-2014 and 1998-2014, the decreasing trends in DTR mainly occur in the Northern Hemisphere. The DTR in the Southern Hemisphere experienced much larger increases during the two recent periods than during the period 1951-2014. Asia, Eastern North America, and Australia exhibited widespread decreases in DTR, although the trend pattern for global DTR is generally mixed during 1979-2014 and 1998-2014. There is a good negative correlation between DTR and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2014, with a correlation coefficient of − 0.61. The change in precipitation and number of volcanic eruptions, and the "early brightening" of Europe (Stockholm) all benefit the increase of DTR at global and regional scales in the first half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal-summer MJOs exhibit three distinctive downstream evolutions on their passages over the Maritime Continent (MC): (i) smoothly transitioning from Indian Ocean (IO) to western Pacific (type-I); (ii) rapidly decayed over the MC (type-II); and (iii) significantly intensified over the MC (type-III). During the life cycles of type-I and -III MJOs, basin-wide overturning circulations connect the convective dipoles between western and eastern north Pacific. For type-II MJO, regional overturning circulations connect the convective dipoles between the IO and Western North Pacific (WNP). For type-I and -III MJOs, the associated convection over eastern IO is able to generate strong Kevin-wave responses and significant positive SST anomalies over the MC and western Pacific. On the other hand, for type-II MJO in the IO, a persistent convection lingers around the WNP. It intensifies westerly monsoon flows, thus preventing the generation of coherent positive SST anomalies ahead of the IO MJO convection. It also blocks the formation of a robust Kelvin-wave response over the MC and western Pacific by delaying the northeastward migrations of the dry phase. The convection of type-I and -III MJOs at eastern IO is able to generate positive boundary-layer moisture anomalies along with positive column-integrated moisture tendencies over the MC and western Pacific, thus allowing them to propagate eastward smoothly. On the other hand, the type-II MJO convection in eastern IO is associated with a very dry troposphere and negative column-integrated moisture tendency over western Pacific, which result in the rapid decay of convection over the MC. These results emphasize the important roles of robust Kelvin-wave responses and positive SST anomalies on the eastward propagation of boreal-summer MJOs over the MC through moistening the troposphere ahead of the convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the multidecadal variations of the interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1000-year simulation of a coupled climate model. The interannual relationship between ENSO and EASM has experienced pronounced changes throughout the 1000-year simulation. During the periods with significant ENSO-EASM relationship, the ENSO-related circulation anomalies show a Pacific-Japan (PJ)-like pattern with significant wave-activity flux propagating from the tropics to the north in lower troposphere and from the mid-latitudes to the south in upper troposphere. The resultant ENSO-related precipitation anomalies are more (less) than normal over the East Asia (western North Pacific) in the decaying summers of El Niño events. In contrast, the circulation and precipitation anomalies are weak over East Asia-western North Pacific during the periods with weak ENSO-EASM relationship. Based on the energy conversion analysis, the related anomalies achieve barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow during the periods with strong ENSO-EASM relationship. On the contrary, during the low-correlation periods, the energy conversion is too weak to form the link between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The main reason for the multidecadal variations of ENSO-EASM relationship is the amplitude discrepancy of SST anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific Ocean which, in turn, leads to the intensity difference of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WPAC) and related climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Year-to-year variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is primarily controlled by atmosphere-ocean interaction (AOI) between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool dipole SST anomalies (AOI mode) and the anomalous SST forcing from the equatorial central Pacific (the CP forcing mode). In this study, we show that the impacts of the WPSH variability on Asian summer monsoon rainfall have changed after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s (the PRE epoch), the WPSH primarily affects East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and had little influence on Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas after the late 1990s (the POST epoch), the WPSH has strengthened its linkage to the ISM while weakened its relationship with the EASM. This epochal change is associated with a change in the leading circulation mode in the Asia-WP region. During the PRE (POST) epoch the WPSH variation is mainly controlled by the AOI (CP forcing) that mainly affects EASM (ISM). The epochal change of the leading mode may be attributed to the change of the ENSO properties in late 1990s: the CP types of El Nino become a leading ENSO mode in the POST epoch. This work provides a new perspective for understanding decadal changes of the ENSO-monsoon relationship through subtropical dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well recognized that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may exert a direct impact on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall through modulating the Philippine Sea anticyclone variability. Such ENSO associated influence is evident in the monsoon region, i.e., Southeast China, the Yangtze River, Korean Peninsula and Japan. It remains unclear whether and how this ENSO related effect can reach the Yellow River region, a monsoon/arid transition region. In this study, results show that the year-to-year variations of the Yellow River summer rainfall can be indirectly influenced by ENSO, during its developing phase. The western Tibetan Plateau snow cover (WTPSC) may act as a “capacitor”, helping ENSO signal to reach the Yellow River region. During the El Niño developing spring, the associated diabatic heating in Pacific region can excite an anomalous cyclone over the plateau and anomalous upward flows over the western plateau. Such circulation configuration favors an excessive WTPSC anomaly in spring. The more WTPSC may increase the surface albedo, decrease the absorbed net shortwave radiation and in turn intensify the WTPSC. Through such snow-albedo feedback process, the excessive WTPSC anomaly may strengthen and persist through summer, which may induce two noticeable wave trains in the upper and lower troposphere propagating northeastward to the Yellow River region. Associated with the wave trains, a low pressure anomaly prevails over northeast China. To the southwest side of the anomalous low pressure, the abnormal northerly wind may bring large volumes of dry cold air with little moisture to the Yellow River region, leading to the anomalous drought there. During the La Niña developing summer, the situation tends to be opposite. As such, the ENSO associated influence is tied to the interannual variations of the following summer Yellow River precipitation, with the development of ENSO from spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subseasonal migrations of the East Asian summer monsoon are nearly identical to that of the South Asian summer monsoon. In mid-May to mid-June (Phase 1), the South Asian westerly strengthens, the center of the South Asian high moves northwestward, and the East Asian frontal system coupled to and located north of the Western North Pacific (WNP) high moves northward, with all of these actions occurring rapidly. In mid-June to late July (Phase 2), the strength of the South Asian westerly reaches a maximum, the center of the South Asian high remains at approximately 30°N, and the northward propagation of the WNP high becomes stagnant. The speed of the northward movement of the WNP high in Phase 2 is only half the speed of that in Phase 1. By late June, the South Asian monsoon has reached northern India and been blocked by the Himalayas. This indicates that the Himalayas have an effect of constraining the speed of the northward movement of the South Asian high and, in turn, the WNP high. Climate model experiments further reveal that the near-stationary nature of the East Asian frontal system in Phase 2 is related to the blocking of the South Asian summer monsoon by the Himalayas. We suggest that the evolution of the WNP high is constrained by the evolution of the South Asian high, and the Meiyu–Baiu is connected to the South Asian summer monsoon through the impact of the South Asian monsoon heating on the upper tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland Sea ice area (GRESIA) in boreal autumn and its association with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over India and South Korea is assessed for the period 1983–2013. It is found that GRESIA in the month of October has a significant positive relation (correlation coefficient (cc) = 0.45) with the subsequent Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) while having a significant negative relation (cc = −0.40) with the ensuing Korean monsoon rainfall (KMR). GRESIA episodes in the preceding autumn impact the ensuing summer monsoon rainfall over India (South Korea) adversely (favourably). While central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Indian subcontinent, snow over eastern Eurasia, just north of the Korea–Japan peninsula, plays a mediating role in transmitting the GRESIA signal towards the Korean peninsula. Although, the anomalies of equatorial central Pacific SSTs and eastern Eurasian snow play a crucial role in modulating IMR and KMR respectively, the GRESIA variability also plays a dominant role in modulating the monsoon variability over both the regions. Thus, a combination of autumn GRESIA along with SSTs over the central Pacific and snow over the eastern Eurasia, may possibly serve as a unique precursor to presage Asia’s two diverse regional subsystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5-20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the concurrent variations in the location and intensity of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and polar front jet (EAPJ) with a focus on the relationship between the variations and the atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitude region. The possible mechanisms for the concurrent variations of the EASJ and EAPJ are explored. The wintertime upper-level zonal wind variation over the landmass (50°-100°E) is characterized by two principal modes, i.e., the out-of-phase variations in the intensity and the meridional displacements of the EASJ/EAPJ. The EASJ and EAPJ are intensified (weakened) when they are located close to (far away from) each other, corresponding to a weakened (intensified) East Asian trough over the northern Pacific region and a decreased (increased) geopotential height in the mid-latitude over central Asia. The spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly is similar to the Eurasian teleconnection pattern, while the pattern of sea level pressure anomaly shows a feature similar to the Arctic oscillation. Analyses of related thermal-dynamical processes indicate that the increased (decreased) diabatic heating and horizontal heat transport lead to a larger (smaller) meridional temperature gradient over the EASJ/EAPJ regions, which subsequently intensifies (weakens) the East Asian jets. Severe (weak) convective activities accompanied with warmer (colder) SST in the tropics also contribute to the intensification (weakening) of the EASJ and EAPJ. Dynamically, the strong (weak) divergence of the eddy vorticity flux along the northern Tibetan Plateau and that of the Eliassen-Palm flux of the synoptic-scale stationary waves are favorable for the intensification (weakening) of zonal winds through the wave-mean flow interactions. As a result, the EASJ and EAPJ are intensified (weakened). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by an eastward propagating wave train with a zonal wavenumber of 5-6 between 20° and 40°N, extending from the northwest coast of Africa to East Asia, and thus is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). One-point correlation maps show that the teleconnectivity of AAMT is strong and further demonstrate the existence of the AAMT. The AAMT shapes the spatial structure of multidecadal change in atmospheric circulation over the NA-EA region, and in particular the AAMT pattern and associated fields show similar structures to the change occurring around the early 1960s. A strong in-phase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. Barotropic modeling results suggest that the upper-level Rossby wave source generated by the AMV can excite the AAMT wave train, and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis further highlights the role of the Asian jet stream in guiding the wave train to East Asia. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability. The AMV is closely related to the coordinated change in surface and tropospheric air temperatures over Northwest Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Central China, which may result from the adiabatic expansion/compression of air associated with the AAMT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system to reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors at the end of the twenty-first century projected by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 is studied using an aerosol-climate model with aerosol direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects included. Our results show that the global annual mean aerosol effective radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is +1.45 W m from 2000 to 2100. The summer mean net all-sky shortwave fluxes averaged over the East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) at the TOA and surface increased by +3.9 and +4.0 W m, respectively, due to the reductions of aerosols in 2100 relative to 2000. Changes in radiations affect local thermodynamic and dynamic processes and the hydrological cycle. The summer mean surface temperature and pressure averaged over the EAMR are shown to increase by 1.7 K and decreased by 0.3 hPa, respectively, due to the reduced aerosols. The magnitudes of these changes are larger over land than ocean, causing a marked increase in the contrast of land-sea surface temperature and pressure in the EAMR, thus strengthening the EASM. The summer mean southwest and south winds at 850 hPa are enhanced over eastern and southern China and the surrounding oceans, and the East Asian subtropical jet shifted northward due to the decreases of aerosols. These factors also indicate enhanced EASM circulation, which in turn causes a 10 % increase in summer mean precipitation averaged over the EAMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two anthropogenic forcing factors dominate in eastern China: aerosols and urban land cover. Usually, aerosols induce surface cooling while urban land cover causes surface warming. It is important to explore whether or not a nonlinear effect may result from the coexistence of these two opposing effects, and to what extent such nonlinear effect may become significant in affecting the climate change in East Asia. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) coupled with the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is employed to investigate the nonlinear effect on the East Asian summer monsoon due to the coexistence of aerosols and urban land cover. The anthropogenic forcing can be studied by including only aerosol emissions, only urban land cover, or a combination of the two in eastern China. The nonlinear effect obtained in CAM5.1 is evident in eastern China to offset the urbanization effect. Large-scale atmospheric response produces anomalous upward motion and increases total cloud amount and precipitation. This increased total cloud amount and its associated negative shortwave cloud forcing in turn significantly decrease surface air temperature and cool the troposphere, especially in northern China, resulting in a reduced land-sea thermal contrast, which acts to weaken the prevailing southwesterly wind over the Yangtze River Valley and southwestern China and to enhance the wind over the northern South China Sea. The nonlinear effect also indirectly excites strong convection over southern China, leading to a pronounced increase in summer precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a possible mechanism for the decadal variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is proposed. Specifically, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may play an important role. An analysis of the observations shows that the North Pacific SST has a remarkable decadal pattern whose phase shifted around the mid-1980s. This North Pacific SST decadal pattern can weaken the East Asian trough and enhance the North Pacific Oscillation through changing air-sea interactions over the North Pacific. The weak East Asian trough enhances the zonal circulation and weakens the meridional circulation over East Asia, consequently leading to a weaker southward cold surge and East Asia warming around the mid-1980s. The numerical experiment further confirms the pronounced physical processes. In addition, over the longer period of 1871-2012, the indices of the EAWM and North Pacific SST decadal pattern are also highly consistent on the decadal timescale, which further confirms the impact of the North Pacific SST decadal pattern on the EAWM decadal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of urban land-use change in East China on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated using a Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1. The results show that the urban land-use change in East China causes spatially-varying changes in surface net radiation and heat fluxes, atmospheric circulation, and water budgets. It results in significant surface warming (cooling) and precipitation decrease (increase) in a large region north (south) of 30°N. Urban expansion agglomerated in (29°-41°N, 110°-122°E) alters the surface energy budget and warms the surface, resulting in strengthened southwesterly airflow south of 25°N and increased convergence below the mid-troposphere between 20° and 30°N. A concomitant northward downdraft associated with the increased convection generates an anomalous high pressure north of 30°N. Meanwhile, the downdraft not only produces adiabatic warming but also inhibits the dynamic condition for precipitation formation. The anomalous high pressure formed in North China prevents the southwesterly airflow from advancing northward, leading to increase the convergence and precipitation in South China. These changes reduce the meridional temperature gradient in the mid-lower troposphere and weaken the westerly airflow near 30°N. In addition, horizontal transport of vorticity north of 35°N weakens significantly, which leads to an anomalous barotropic structure of anticyclonic there. As a result, the anomalous anticyclonic circulation and descent north of 30°N are strengthened. At the same time, the anomalous cyclonic circulation and ascent south of 30°N are enhanced. These process induced by the thermal state changes due to urbanization weakens the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on atmospheric circulation reanalysis, global gridded precipitation, and outgoing longwave radiation datasets, this study reveals the physical process through which the land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia interrelates with the variability of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (IIE). The results indicate that the release of latent heating exerted by the low-frequency variability of anomalous land-sea thermal contrast is one of the most important physical processes correlating with the zonal movement of the IIE, in which the release of latent heating over eastern East Asia makes the greatest contribution. When a lower apparent moisture sink occurs over the South China Sea but a higher one over southern China, an anomalously positive land-sea thermal contrast is formed. An anomalous convergent zone in relation to the positive land-sea thermal contrast, located in the eastern part of the IIE, will favor the IIE to move more eastward than normal, and vice versa. An anomalous divergent zone located in the eastern part of the IIE will benefit the IIE to shift more westward than normal. Experiments using a linear baroclinic model confirm the physical processes revealed by the observational analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparative analysis of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is performed to reveal the drivers and mechanisms controlling the similarities of the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation changes compared to the corresponding pre-industrial (PI) experiments derived from atmosphere-only (i.e. AGCM) and fully coupled (i.e. CGCM) simulations, as well as the large simulated differences in the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation between the two simulations. The area-averaged precipitation over the EASM domain is enhanced in the mid-Pliocene compared to the corresponding PI experiments performed by both the AGCM (LMDZ5A) and the CGCM (IPSL-CM5A). Moisture budget analysis reveals that it is the surface warming over East Asia that drives the area-averaged EASM precipitation increase in the mid-Pliocene in both simulations. The surface warming increases the atmospheric moisture content, as revealed by an increase in the thermodynamic component of vertical moisture advection, resulting in enhanced mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation compared to PI in both simulations. Moist static energy diagnosis identifies the combined effect of enhanced zonal thermal contrast and column-integrated meridional stationary eddy velocity $$\overline{{v^{*} }}$$ and its convergence $$\frac{{\overline{{\partial v^{*} }} }}{\partial y}$$ as the physical mechanisms that sustain the enhancement of mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation in both simulations compared to the PI experiments. This takes place through a strengthening of the EASM circulation and moisture transport into the EASM domain associated with an increase in local moisture convergence in the mid-Pliocene in both simulations. Moisture budget analysis also reveals that the larger area-averaged mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation increase in the CGCM compared to its AGCM component is mainly caused by the dynamical component contributing more to the vertical moisture advection in the CGCM (i.e. IPSL-CM5A) compared to its AGCM (LMDZ5). The large simulated differences in the spatial pattern of the mid-Pliocene EASM precipitation between the two simulations result from the combined effect of enhanced meridional thermal contrast over the EASM domain and increased $$\overline{{v^{*} }}$$ convergence over South China in the CGCM simulation compared to the AGCM simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1-40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land-sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Asia and low SLP anomalies over the WNP, associated with a weakened EASM. In response to emissions from both regions warming and moistening over the WNP plays an important role and determines the time scale of the response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recently developed method of climatic relevant singular vectors (CSVs) is applied to an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM4) to investigate the optimal error growth of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) seasonal prediction due to uncertainties in initial conditions of the sea surface temperature (SST). Emphasis is placed on the investigation of the optimal error growth of SAM seasonal forecast due to the SST uncertainties in the Indian and the equatorial Pacific Oceans. It is found that the uncertainties in the Indian Ocean can result in much larger error growth of SAM seasonal prediction than those in equatorial Pacific Ocean. Most of the CSV patterns over the Indian Ocean resembled a dipole-like structure with opposite signs spanning the northern and southern Indian Ocean. It is seen that the CSVs error growth rate changes significantly depending on the initial states whereas the CSVs patterns are insensitive to the initial conditions. The CSV patterns and error growth rates, calculated using CAM4, are also compared against those using coupled model CCSM4, indicating that the CSVs patterns from CAM4 are similar to those from CCSM4 coupled model while the error growth rate is lower in CAM4 than in CCSM4. Ensemble summer hindcasts, for the period from 2000 to 2009 over Indian Ocean, are constructed by the CSVs. For the purpose of comparison, ensemble forecasts constructed by the time lag ensemble (TLE) method are also conducted. It is found that the ensemble mean prediction by CSVs has a better skill than both the prediction by TLE and by the control run, in particular for predictions longer than 3 months, indicating the merit of CSV for SAM ensemble forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes areal changes and regional climate variations in global semi-arid regions over 61 years (1948-2008) and investigates the dynamics of global semi-arid climate change. The results reveal that the largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semi-arid regions since the early 1960s. This expansion of semi-arid regions accounts for more than half of the total dryland expansion. The area of semi-arid regions in the most recent 15 years studied (1990-2004) is 7 % larger than that during the first 15 years (1948-1962) of the study period; this expansion totaled 0.4 × 10 and 1.2 × 10 km within the American continents and in the Eastern Hemisphere, respectively. Although semi-arid expansion occurred in both regions, the shifting patterns of the expansion are different. Across the American continents, the newly formed semi-arid regions developed from arid regions, in which the climate became wetter. Conversely, in the continental Eastern Hemisphere, semi-arid regions replaced sub-humid/humid regions, in which the climate became drier. The climate change in drying semi-arid regions over East Asia is primarily dominated by a weakened East Asian summer monsoon, while the wetting of semi-arid regions over North America is primarily controlled by enhanced westerlies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) plays an essential role in linking El Niño and the East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon. The WNPAC and the corresponding WNP anomalous cyclone (WNPC) associated with La Niña are studied by examining the pre-industrial control runs of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The WNPAC is asymmetric with the WNPC during ENSO mature winters, which can be reproduced by seven out of the eighteen models. Based on the differences between the seven models and the other models, it is verified that the asymmetry results from the combined effects of the asymmetric remote forcing from the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and the asymmetric local sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. It is further demonstrated that the asymmetric circulation anomalies over the tropical WNP contribute to the asymmetric decaying rates between El Niño and La Niña. Those models that can (cannot) simulate the asymmetry between the WNPAC and WNPC tend to reproduce ENSO with asymmetric (symmetric) decaying rates. In El Niño decaying summers, the WNPAC is still maintained due to the sequential effects of the local forcing of the underlying cold SST anomalies remaining from the previous winter and spring, and the remote forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean. Multi-model results show that the coupling of the local cold SST anomalies and the WNPAC forms a damping mode, which is only conducive to maintaining the WNPAC in the early summer, while the response of the WNPAC to the remote forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean intensifies from June to July, concurring with the establishment of the climatological WNP summer monsoon trough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term changes in surface wind speed (SWS) are influenced by both large-scale circulation and relative resistance. The effects of large-scale circulation are embodied by the pressure-gradient force (PGF), which is mostly a natural factor, whereas the resistance is due to the drag between the air and the surface as well as in the different boundary layers, which is mainly caused by the anthropogenic land use and cover change (LUCC). We performed experiments using a simple dynamical method in which a balance among the PGF, Coriolis force, and drag is reached to separate the effects of the PGF and LUCC on the SWS, and then, to quantitatively estimate the influence of the LUCC on the SWS over the East China Plain (ECP) during the period 1980-2011. The results show a distinct decrease in the SWS in the station observation data with a rate of −0.13 m s (10 year), but there is no statistically significant long-term trend in the reanalysis data. At the same time, the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC shows an increasing trend, which is consistent with the 30 % increase in the rate of urbanization during the study period. In addition, the PGF fluctuates with distinct seasonal and interannual changes, and it has an insignificant long-term increasing trend during the period 1980-2011. At the same time, the spatial distribution of the linear trend coefficient of the normalized PGF is inconsistent with that of the SWS, but the linear trend coefficient of the normalized drag coefficient shows a similar spatial distribution as the SWS. Therefore, the increase in the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC should account for the long-term decrease in the SWS. The difference between the model wind speed, in which the drag coefficient is constrained to its value in the year 1980, and the observed wind speed at each station (SWSD) can reflect the influence of the LUCC on the SWS. Furthermore, the long-term changes in East Asian monsoons may not completely account for the observed wind speed decrease near the surface in the ECP region, but it is an important factor in the SWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme cold events occur frequently in China. The authors define a representative yet simple index to reveal the monthly changes in China winter temperature associated with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which is represented by both the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode and the country-mean temperature index of Chinese 160 gauge stations. A combined technique of correlation and multivariate EOF (Corr-MVEOF) analyses is applied to capture the dominant coupled patterns of EAWM circulation system. Based on the atmospheric circulation features captured by the leading Corr-MVEOF mode, a new EAWM index referred to as CNWMI is derived by using a stepwise regression analysis. The CNWMI highlights the importance of (1) the Mongolia-Siberian High (MSH) and its southward expansion and (2) the Asia-wide meridional dipole anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height. Compared with the 27 existing EAWM indices, the CNWMI not only best represents the leading modes of both EAWM circulation system and China winter temperature, but also reasonably tracks the intraseasonal-to-interdecadal variations of EAWM so that the monthly intensity of EAWM can be monitored conveniently. In particular, the Aleutian low (AL) is not strongly related to the MSH and may not be responsible for the variability of EAWM/MSH. Moreover, the indices that are highly correlated with the temperature over southern East Asia do not show significant relationships with the AL, which is different from the conventional concept that a strong EAWM/MSH is linked to a deepened AL. In contrast, the anomalous Australia-Maritime Continent low is in good agreement with the variation of EAWM/MSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the relationships among different factors impacting the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is urgent for improving its predictability. In the present study, two factors, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) atmospheric thermal forcing and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature basin mode (IOBM), are selected to compare their relative contributions to the interannual variability of the EASM. Both statistical methods and numerical experiments are used to separate and compare their respective influences under realistic circumstances. The results indicate that the IOBM mainly drives an anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific in the lower troposphere, which is consistent with the dominant mode of the EASM circulation system. Meanwhile, influences from the TP thermal forcing are primarily on the anticyclonic anomaly over the TP in the upper troposphere, together with the enhanced southwesterly over southern China and a northerly anomaly over northern China in the lower troposphere. Moreover, the TP thermal forcing seems to play a more important role than the IOBM in affecting the main rainfall belt of the EASM, which extends from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to Japan. Such a rainfall pattern anomaly is directly related to the anomalous northerly over northern China and the resultant stronger moisture convergence over the main rainfall belt region when a strong TP thermal forcing occurs. In addition, the IOBM can increase the precipitation over the southeastern TP during its positive phase and hence enhance the in situ atmospheric heat source to a certain degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on multiple sources of atmospheric and oceanic data, this study performs a series of composite analysis of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) onset against ENSO events, and indicates that warm/cold ENSO events induce later/earlier onset of the SASM by modulating the vertical coupling of the upper- and lower-level circulation over the South Asia. Specifically, during the monsoon onset of Bay of Bengal (BOB), the ENSO-induced convection anomalies over the southern Philippines can modulate the position of South Asian high (SAH) in late April in the upper troposphere, which evolves to affect the monsoon onset convection by changing the upper divergence-pumping effect. In the lower troposphere, ENSO induces an anomalous zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian-western Pacific Ocean to alter the barotropic instability which further affects the formation of BOB monsoon onset convection. During the Indian summer monsoon onset, the anomalous convection over northeastern BOB and Indochina Peninsula in late May act to change the SAH position and its relevant upper divergence-pumping over the Arabian Sea (AS). Meanwhile, the Indian monsoon onset convection is also modulated by the ENSO-induced changes in intensity of the inertial instability and the forced convection over the AS, which are related to an ENSO-induced anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient and zonally asymmetric meridional gradient of sea level pressure, and an anomalous westerly over the central AS in the lower troposphere. Results demonstrate that during the BOB and India monsoon onset, the influences of ENSO on the upper circulation are similar, but are distinctly different on the lower-level circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the simulation of June-September mean of the Asian monsoon in three different numerical experiments with a global climate model in which the atmosphere and ocean are coupled (coupled general circulation model, CGCM), regionally coupled ('Pacemaker'), and with specified sea surface temperature as in the Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) applied to a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The main features of the climatology for wind at 850 hPa, rainfall and zonal wind shear (U200-U850 hPa) over the South China Sea, subtropical western Pacific and Arabian Sea regions are remarkably well simulated in the Pacemaker experiment, compared with observations, whereas the CGCM and AGCM experiments either underestimate or overestimate magnitude of anomalies. The observed relationships between NINO3.4 (an index of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon indices are remarkably better captured in the Pacemaker experiment than in the CGCM or AGCM/AMIP experiments. The pattern correlations between the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the model simulations and that of the observed precipitation is higher in the Pacemaker experiment than in the CGCM or AGCM experiments over a large region (40°E-80°W, 20°S-30°N). The temporal correlation between the first principal component of the model simulation and the observations is also higher for the Pacemaker experiment than for the AGCM experiment. The northward/eastward propagation features and the spectral peaks (30-60 days) of rainfall are significantly more realistically captured by Pacemaker in comparison to CGCM and AGCM/AMIP. Based on the correlation coefficient between seasonal and pentad EOF1 and the related composite analysis, we have found that the Pacemaker is able to reproduce the relationship between the intraseasonal and interannual variability of the South Asian monsoon. The observed improvement in simulation in the Pacemaker experiment, as compared to the CGCM experiment, illustrates that a simple system having only local air-sea feedback is capable of greater realism than sophisticated coupled models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple terrestrial records suggest that marine isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13), an interglacial period approximately 0.5 million years ago, had the strongest East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) of the last one million years. This is unexpected given that, compared to other interglacials, MIS-13 was globally cooler with a lower CO concentration. We use two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) and Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3), to simulate the climate of MIS-13 forced with different insolation and greenhouse gas concentrations relative to the pre-industrial (PrI) situation. Both models confirm a stronger EASM during MIS-13 compared to PrI. Here we specially focus on analyzing the impact of the tropical Pacific Ocean on the EASM. Our simulations suggest that the mean climatic state in the tropical Pacific during MIS-13 was La Niña-like and that associated teleconnections with the extra-tropics favored increased precipitation over the EASM. As compared to PrI, it is found that the summer (June-July-August) sea surface temperature (SST) is warmer in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and colder to the west. In concert with previous studies, we show that colder summer SSTs in the central tropical Pacific during MIS-13 promotes an upper-level teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and EASM. It also contributes to the strengthening of the northern Pacific subtropical high and, therefore, the transport of more moisture into the EASM. We suggest that the reduced east-west SST difference in the tropical Pacific in summer helps to maintain the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and EASM. The correlation between tropical Pacific SSTs and the EASM was higher in our MIS-13 simulations, further supporting the enhancement of their relationship. It is found that the pure impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on EASM precipitation increases by up to 30 % in MIS-13 for HadCM3 while it is minor for CCSM3. Better constraining the spatio-temporal variability of tropical Pacific SST during the interglacials may thus help explain the anomalously strong EASM during MIS-13 which has been observed from geological records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have revealed some common biases in coupled general circulation model's simulations of the East Asian (EA) winter monsoon (EAWM), including colder surface air temperature and more winter precipitation over the EA region. In this study, we examined 41 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models from fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which will be widely used in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and address whether the current state-of-the-art CMIP5 models can characterise the climatology of the East Asian winter monsoon. We also compared the results with the models from third phase of CMIP, which was extensively used in the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. The results show that the cold surface air temperature (SAT) bias is lessened and the precipitation amount decreased with the current CMIP5 models. Moreover, the CMIP5 models performbetter at predicting surface winds and high-level jet streams than the CMIP3 models. Moreover, CMIP5 models show more model consistency in most EAWM parameters, and the interannual variability of the SAT is closer to the observations. We also examined the change in the radiation energy budget in the CMIP5 models and compared with CMIP3 models. Although the improvements are significant, deficiencies still exist in the simulation of the EAWM, e.g., the stronger EA major trough and the stronger zonal sea level pressure gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625-1644 and 1975-1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975-1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625-1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the spring AO on ENSO has been demonstrated in several recent studies. This analysis further explores the physical process of the influence of AO on ENSO using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data over the period 1958-2010. We focus on the formation of the westerly wind burst in the tropical western Pacific, and examine the evolution and formation of the atmospheric circulation, atmospheric heating, and SST anomalies in association with the spring AO variability. The spring AO variability is found to be independent from the East Asian winter monsoon activity. The spring AO associated circulation anomalies are supported by the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the mean-flow and its associated vorticity transportation. Surface wind changes may affect surface heat fluxes and the oceanic heat transport, resulting in the SST change. The AO associated warming in the equatorial SSTs results primarily from the ocean heat transport in the face of net surface heat flux damping. The tropical SST warming is accompanied by anomalous atmospheric heating in the subtropical north and south Pacific, which sustains the anomalous westerly wind in the equatorial western Pacific through a Gill-like atmospheric response from spring to summer. The anomalous westerly excites an eastward propagating and downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, leading to SST warming in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in summer-fall. The tropical SST, atmospheric heating, and atmospheric circulation anomalies sustain and develop through the Bjerknes feedback mechanism, which eventually result in an El Niño-like warming in the tropical eastern Pacific in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]