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The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) exhibits two warming peaks around January and August in the subsequent year of El Niño. Results show that the second basin-scale SST warming peak is only evident following strong El Niño events, not regular events, which can be well identified by the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. The heat budget analysis reveals that the anomalous Ekman heat advection (Eka) and geostrophic heat advection (Goa) contribute to the second warming feature, associated with the local dynamic response in the SCS, such as wind-driven Ekman downwelling, weakened Vietnam coastal upwelling, and abnormal anticyclonic geostrophic currents. The abnormal Eka and Goa are further attributed to the advanced abnormal equatorial easterlies breakout in the western Pacific, coinciding with the development of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in response to strong El Niño. This suggests that the second warming feature of the SCS SST is the footprint of strong El Niño events via the establishment of the WNPAC, which is tightly related to Indo-Pacific remote processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of cold core eddies and their effects on the hydrodynamics and biological production in the Andaman seas were studied using in-situ and satellite observations. The existence and spatial extent of the eddy are revealed by the precise structure and patterns of the temperature-salinity (T–S) profiles, nutrients, and chl a. A good illustration of this is the anomaly in sea surface height (SSHA). The Cyclonic Eddies (CE1 and CE2) are monitored using the Okubo-Weiss parameter (− 2 × 10–11/s2) calculated from the satellite SSHA and a geostrophic current centered at 8°N and 92°E and 13°N and 93°E, respectively. At the eastern flank of CE1, measurements are taken in-situ along 8°N and 92.5°–93.5°E. Vertical currents measured with Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles (ADCP) at 0.3 m/s show northward flow along the track. A significant northward flow (0.3 m/s) can be seen in the vertical currents recorded with ADCP, yet a weak southern flow can be seen over the western margin. In addition, the SSHA acquired from altimetry demonstrates the spatial extent, supporting the occurrence of cyclonic eddies. The vertical shear in the horizontal flow is the main contributor to baroclinic instability (Ri 0.0001) in the water column, according to an analysis of the factors that could result in the formation of an eddy. The T–S profiles show that the area contains Bay of Bengal (BoB) water, and there are semi-annual Rossby waves there as well. However, the wind stress curl did not provide a reliable indication of divergence in the region. The region's biological production (chl a) and nutrient distribution (NO2, NO3, PO4, and SiO4) were impacted by the eddy. CE2 is connected to convective mixing processes that take place along the northwest coast of the Andaman Islands as a result of the primarily cold, dry continental air flowing from the north east. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the spatial inhomogeneity of the time-averaged, quasigeostrophic, double-gyre circulation response to fixed, realistic, large-scale modes of wind-stress forcing. While the companion paper of this study focused on understanding the anatomy of low-frequency, midlatitude climate variability in an idealised, eddy-resolving coupled model, this paper looked at understanding the nature of the wind-induced ocean gyre response using an ocean-only configuration of the same model. Our analysis revealed two, time-averaged responses to an east–west dipole, wind-stress curl anomaly in the ocean basin. Firstly, wind-stress anomalies in the western ocean basin led to changes in relative strength of the inertial recirculation zones and jet-axis tilt. This is consistent with an advection-dominated, nonlinear adjustment of the ocean gyres to anomalous forcing. Secondly, wind-stress curl anomalies in the eastern ocean basin was found to induce a largely independent response involving meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension (WBCE). The effects of time-averaged advection in this region are weak and the discovery of westward-propagating Rossby waves along the WBCE revealed the response is more akin to a baroclinic Rossby wave adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the essential impact of mixed-layer temperature (MLT) seasonality in Kuroshio–Oyashio Confluence Region (KOCR) on the variations of climate and marine economic species, the present study investigates causes of seasonal MLT anomaly (MLTA) in KOCR under bimodal states of Kuroshio Extension (KE). The results reveal that KE bimodality plays a modulation role in the seasonal variability of MLTA in KOCR. There is an opposite seasonal variation trend of MLTA under different KE states, and the MLTA amplitude in cold season (winter and spring) is larger than that in warm season (summer and autumn). Such behavior is directly induced by different distribution of climatological MLT and wind field in cold and warm seasons, as well as the opposite anomalous velocity of wind and ocean currents nearby KOCR associated with different KE states through changing sensible and latent heat flux, Ekman and geostrophic advection. The results suggest the dependency of short-term (seasonal) variability of KOCR-MLTA on the long-term (decadal) variations of KE background state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temporal variations of net Kuroshio transport are examined for 1972–2018 based on a repeated hydrographic section along 137°E, which is maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The net Kuroshio transport obtained by integration of geostrophic current velocity relative to 1000 dbar depth fluctuates on inter-annual and decadal timescales. The predominant timescale of the net Kuroshio transport changes with time; the inter-annual variation is pronounced in 1972–1990 and 2000–2018, and the decadal variation is detected only before 2000. We find that a winter wind stress curl variation in the central North Pacific which reflects meridional movements of the Aleutian Low and intensity fluctuations of the North Pacific subtropical high on an inter-annual timescale and intensity fluctuations of the Aleutian Low on a decadal timescale, causes the net Kuroshio transport variation. In addition to the inter-annual and decadal variations, we further pointed out a bi-decadal-scale variation of the net Kuroshio transport and its possible link to the Aleutian Low intensity fluctuation. Moreover, our results indicate that during large net Kuroshio transport, sea surface temperature around the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension region tends to increase, resulting in vigorous upward sensible and latent heat release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluctuation of the subsurface ocean heat condition along the equatorial Pacific is associated with the mass/heat exchanges between the equatorial and off-equatorial regions, which is the main cause of the phase transitions during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this work, the connection between the meridional transport convergences (MTCs) along the equatorial Pacific and variations of the warm water volume in the equatorial Pacific and their connections with the ENSO cycle are investigated. It is noted that the Sverdrup MTC induced by the wind stress curl has a significant impact on the thermocline fluctuation in nearly the entire equatorial Pacific but the impacts of its components vary with longitude. The component induced by the Ekman currents has a significant contribution from 150° W eastward to the coast, as well as the far-western Pacific, while the geostrophic component has a significant contribution in the central Pacific. There is a strong compensation between the surface wind stress-induced Ekman MTC and the Ekman pumping-induced geostrophic MTC which is confined in the central Pacific. Furthermore, the geostrophic component facilitates the phase transition of the ENSO cycle, while the Ekman component compensatively hinders it. The longitudinally varying component of the MTC enhances the anomalous thermocline tilting during the ENSO growth and maturing phases. These results may benefit the understanding, monitoring, and forecasting of ENSO evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a vital role in Earth's climate variability. Climate change has the potential to alter the causes and characteristics of AMOC multidecadal variability. Here we use a coupled climate model to simulate AMOC multidecadal variability under three distinct atmospheric CO2 concentrations: Last Glacial Maximum, preindustrial, and 4 × preindustrial levels. Firstly, we discover that AMOC multidecadal variability exhibits a shortened period and a reduced amplitude with increasing atmospheric CO2. We find that these changes in AMOC variability are largely related to enhanced ocean stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic with increasing CO2 which in turn changes the characteristics of westward propagating oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. Our analysis indicates that the shortened period is primarily due to the increased speed of free oceanic Rossby waves, and the reduced amplitude is mainly due to the reduced magnitude of atmospherically-forced oceanic Rossby waves. Mean flow effects, in the form of eastward mean zonal advection and westward geostrophic self-advection, need to be considered as they largely increase the speed of Rossby waves and hence allow for a better estimate of the changes in the period and amplitude of AMOC variability. Secondly, to explore the possible linkage between atmospheric variability and AMOC fluctuations under each CO2 concentration in a qualitative manner, we analyze the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMOC and find a significant negative correlation between the two only under the preindustrial levels where the NAO leads the AMOC by 3–11 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea have evidenced several periods of Sapropel deposition, which can be explained by events of anoxic bottom conditions. An explanation for such events calls for a very stratified sea, possibly related with freshwater input through increased precipitations and runoff discharges. It has been suggested that such a stratified Mediterranean Sea may in turn weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through changes in the Mediterranean overflow water (MOW). Nevertheless, models used to establish this result were relatively simple and the mechanisms leading to such an impact remained elusive. To improve on those previous studies, we analyse the impact of different freshwater releases with rates of 0.2, 0.1, 0.05 and 0.02 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) in the Mediterranean Sea using the IPSL-CM5A-LR model in a few multi-centennial simulations. We focus the analysis on the impact of a decrease in the MOW on the large-scale Atlantic circulation. We find a consistent change in horizontal currents in the upper Atlantic Ocean in all simulations in the first century, with a large enhancement of the northward current west of Rockall in the northeast Atlantic. Concerning the AMOC response, we identify three different processes that impact its fate. The first is related to changes in geostrophic currents at depth induced by the disappearance of the MOW, which tends to weaken the AMOC. On the contrary, the second enhances the AMOC and is associated with the increase in northward currents in the horizontal upper circulation. The last process is due to the spread of surface freshwater anomalies out of the Mediterranean Sea that freshens the North Atlantic convection sites and weakens the AMOC. Depending on the rate of the freshwater release, the strength and balance of these three processes are different. For rates larger than 0.05 Sv, we observe a strong reduction of the AMOC, while for lower rates, we notice an enhancement in the upper cell. The climatic response follows that of the upper AMOC with a warming of the North Atlantic for rates lower than 0.05 Sv and a cooling for higher rates. Given that past estimates of freshwater release in the Mediterranean Sea indicate rates lower than 0.05 Sv, we argue that Sapropel events may have enhanced of the upper AMOC and warmed of the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) against 10 years of RAPID/MOCHA AMOC observations, which are now long enough to remove the mean seasonal cycle prior to the hindcast skill analysis. We analyse AMOC hindcast skill in two hindcast ensembles generated with two differently initialised decadal prediction systems that are both based on the earth system model MPI-ESM. We evaluate the hindcast skill for the AMOC and its components in both prediction systems against RAPID/MOCHA observations both with and without the mean seasonal cycle removed using anomaly correlation (COR) and root-mean-square error as skill measures. We find significant hindcast skill for most lead years up to 5 for monthly-mean AMOC variations only in the newer of the two prediction systems and only using COR, but with and without the mean seasonal cycle removed. In both systems and for all analysed lead years, the two geostrophic transport components (the upper-mid-ocean transport and Florida Strait combined, that is: AMOC minus Ekman) are the main source of hindcast skill. In the present model setup and with the currently available observational time series, we cannot relate AMOC hindcast skill to the upper-mid-ocean transport alone. Yet, we can show that the seasonal variability of the upper-mid-ocean transport in the free coupled model originates from eastern boundary density variability. Overall, our results indicate modest yet robust AMOC hindcast skill above the uninitialized simulation, independent of the treatment of the seasonal cycle, although we cannot directly link this hindcast skill to the initialisation of the density field with either initialisation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model (AOGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the AOGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interaction between synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) has been the subject of many studies. In this study, we further examine the interaction by introducing a transformed eddy-potential-vorticity (TEPV) flux that is obtained from eddy-potential-vorticity flux through a quasi-geostrophic potential-vorticity inversion. The main advantage of using the TEPV flux is that it combines the effects of the eddy-vorticity and heat fluxes into the net acceleration of the low-frequency flow in such a way that the TEPV flux tends to be analogous to the eddy-vorticity fluxes in the barotropic framework. We show that the anomalous TEPV fluxes are preferentially directed to the left-hand side of the low-frequency flow in all vertical levels throughout the troposphere for monthly flow anomalies and for climate modes such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Furthermore, this left-hand preference of the TEPV flux direction is a convenient three-dimensional indicator of the positive reinforcement of the low-frequency flow by net eddy-induced acceleration. By projecting the eddy-induced net accelerations onto the low-frequency flow anomalies, we estimate the eddy-induced growth rates for the low frequency flow anomalies. This positive eddy-induced growth rate is larger (smaller) in the lower (upper) troposphere. The stronger positive eddy feedback in the lower troposphere may play an important role in maintaining an equivalent barotropic structure of the low-frequency atmospheric flow by balancing some of the strong damping effect of surface friction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of reconstructing past climates from a sparse network of noisy time-averaged observations is considered with a novel ensemble Kalman filter approach. Results for a sparse network of 100 idealized observations for a quasi-geostrophic model of a jet interacting with a mountain reveal that, for a wide range of observation averaging times, analysis errors are reduced by about 50% relative to the control case without assimilation. Results are robust to changes to observational error, the number of observations, and an imperfect model. Specifically, analysis errors are reduced relative to the control case for observations having errors up to three times the climatological variance for a fixed 100-station network, and for networks consisting of ten or more stations when observational errors are fixed at one-third the climatological variance. In the limit of small numbers of observations, station location becomes critically important, motivating an optimally determined network. A network of fifteen optimally determined observations reduces analysis errors by 30% relative to the control, as compared to 50% for a randomly chosen network of 100 observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the processes responsible for the generation and evolution of sea-surface temperature anomalies observed in the Southern Ocean during a decade based on a 2D diagnostic mixed-layer model in which geostrophic advection is prescribed from altimetry. Anomalous air–sea heat flux is the dominant term of the heat budget over most of the domain, while anomalous Ekman heat fluxes account for 20–40% of the variance in the latitude band 40°−60°S. In the ACC pathway, lateral fluxes of heat associated with anomalous geostrophic currents are a major contributor, dominating downstream of several topographic features, reflecting the influence of eddies and frontal migrations. A significant fraction of the variability of large-scale SST anomalies is correlated with either ENSO or the SAM, each mode contributing roughly equally. The relation between the heat budget terms and these climate modes is investigated, showing in particular that anomalous Ekman and air–sea heat fluxes have a co-operating effect (with regional exceptions), hence the large SST response associated with each mode. It is further shown that ENSO- or SAM-locked anomalous geostrophic currents generate substantial heat fluxes in all three basins with magnitude comparable with that of atmospheric forcings for ENSO, and smaller for the SAM except for limited areas. ENSO-locked forcings generate SST anomalies along the ACC pathway, and advection by mean flows is found to be a non-negligible contribution to the heat budget, exhibiting a wavenumber two zonal structure, characteristic of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. By contrast SAM-related forcings are predominantly zonally uniform along the ACC, hence smaller zonal SST gradients and a lesser role of mean advection, except in the SouthWest Atlantic. While modeled SST anomalies are significantly correlated with observations over most of the Southern Ocean, the analysis of the data-model discrepancies suggests that vertical ocean physics may play a significant role in the nonseasonal heat budget, especially in some key regions for mode water formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]