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Background: Data suggest that the prediction of adult cardiovascular disease using a model comprised entirely of adult nonlaboratory-based risk factors is equivalent to an approach that additionally incorporates adult lipid measures. We assessed and compared the utility of a risk model based solely on nonlaboratory risk factors in adolescence versus a lipid model based on nonlaboratory risk factors plus lipids for predicting high-risk carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in adulthood.Methods: The study comprised 2893 participants 12 to 18 years of age from 4 longitudinal cohort studies from the United States (Bogalusa Heart Study and the Insulin Study), Australia (Childhood Determinants of Adult Health Study), and Finland (The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study) and followed into adulthood when cIMT was measured (mean follow-up, 23.4 years). Overweight status was defined according to the Cole classification. Hypertension was defined according to the Fourth Report on High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents from the National High Blood Pressure Education Program. High-risk plasma lipid levels were defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Cholesterol Levels in Children. High cIMT was defined as a study-specific value ≥90th percentile. Age and sex were included in each model.Results: In univariate models, all risk factors except for borderline high and high triglycerides in adolescence were associated with high cIMT in adulthood. In multivariable models (relative risk [95% confidence interval]), male sex (2.7 [2.0-2.6]), prehypertension (1.4 [1.0-1.9]), hypertension (1.9 [1.3-2.9]), overweight (2.0 [1.4-2.9]), obesity (3.7 [2.0-7.0]), borderline high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.2-2.2]), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.6 [1.1-2.1]), and borderline low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (1.4 [1.0-1.8]) remained significant predictors of high cIMT (P<0.05). The addition of lipids into the nonlaboratory risk model slightly but significantly improved discrimination in predicting high cIMT compared with nonlaboratory-based risk factors only (C statistics for laboratory-based model 0.717 [95% confidence interval, 0.685-0.748] and for nonlaboratory 0.698 [95% confidence interval, 0.667-0.731]; P=0.02).Conclusions: Nonlaboratory-based risk factors and lipids measured in adolescence independently predicted preclinical atherosclerosis in young adulthood. The addition of lipid measurements to traditional clinic-based risk factor assessment provided a statistically significant but clinically modest improvement on adolescent prediction of high cIMT in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Atherosclerosis develops silently for decades before clinical cardiovascular disease (cCVD) occurs. Longitudinally, childhood risk factors predict adult pre-clinical atherosclerosis (carotid artery plaques, coronary artery calcification). There is currently no evidence directly linking childhood risk factors to cCVD. Methods: Using data from the i3C Consortium, consisting of five cohorts from the United States, one from Australia and one from Finland, we linked youth risk factors to adult cCVD. cCVD events were ascertained by re-contacting the participants in the US and Australia, then obtaining and medically adjudicating hospital records; and using the Finnish national health registry. Of 16,964 of these adult participants (mean age 49 years, range 24-67 years) who had been examined during ages 3-19 years, 201 people with any cCVD event (coronary artery, cerebrovascular, and peripheral artery disease, 70%, 25%, and 5% of events, respectively) have so far been ascertained. Analysis of deaths is in process. The associations between each youth risk variable and adult cCVD were examined in Cox proportional hazard models. Each model was additionally adjusted for childhood age, age at followup, sex and cohort/race. Continuous youth variables were z-scored for each participant's last repeated measure during childhood. Results: Youth body mass index (BMI), serum total cholesterol (TC) and triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure were (all P <0.0001) positively associated with adult cCVD events. Regular smoking in youth was associated with a nearly 50% increased risk of adult cCVD (P=0.08). BMI and TC remained significant in the simultaneous risk factor model. The adjudication pipeline suggests that over 500 hospitalized cCVD events will be found when adjudication is complete. Regression using the full set of imputed events yielded similar findings. Conclusion: These international data find that exposure to CVD risk factors in youth predicts adult cCVD with implications for primordial CVD prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]