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This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using cross-province regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's astonishing economic growth implies a necessity to understand its inflation. The present paper employs threshold nonrecursive structural vector autoregression analysis to explore the asymmetric effects of macro-variables on inflation in low and high inflation regimes. The empirical evidence demonstrates, first, that the reactions of inflation to various shocks are inflation-regime-dependent and asymmetric. Second, monetary policy influences China's high inflation and adjusting the domestic interest rate in China may be an effective way to control inflation in a high inflation regime, but not in a low inflation regime. In a high inflation regime, a high inflation rate may cause the macro-policy authorities to increase the domestic interest rate, in an attempt to stabilize high inflation. Third, contrary to expectations, the world oil price is not a strong cost-push factor in a low inflation regime. Oil price increases may increase inflation in a high inflation regime, but there is no such obvious effect in a low inflation regime. Finally, China's nominal effective exchange rate influences inflation in both low and high inflation regimes. A nominal effective exchange rate appreciation might be effective in controlling domestic inflation in both regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In terms of the degree-of-freedom of bank loan decision-making, the ratio of loans of private enterprises and individuals to total loans is used to measure the development of China's financial intermediation. Applying generalized method of moments estimation developed for dynamic panel data models, the present paper finds that the effect of financial intermediation development on economic growth is positive and statistically significant when controlling for other variables, such as human capital, foreign direct investment, securitization and foreign trade. The empirical results indicate that the concept of the so-called Chinese counterexample in financial development is questionable. Financial system reforms, including encouraging banks to operate independently, reducing or eliminating mandatory loans, and making financial decision-making more market-oriented, are important for China's economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the questions related to the cost of China's bank restructuring and how it has been financed. We first propose a framework for recognizing losses. Then, we examine the recent major moves by the Chinese Government to repair the country's bank balance sheets. Finally, we explore the implications of the Chinese Government's methods of funding bank restructuring. We find that the Chinese Government has been decisive in confronting the costly task of bank restructuring. So far, Chinese taxpayers have paid most of the bill for bank restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the assessment of China's rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one's province to destinations closer to home. The present paper finds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China's rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China's rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women (and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs). Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China's growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16 years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this process when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational composition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipice of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the shrinking working age population (aged 15 to 59 years), all factors that have driven China's rapid economic growth over the past 30 years tend to diminish from 2010. The present paper estimates the average annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.2 percent over the 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.1 percent over the 13th Five-year Plan period. Future sustainable growth requires furthering economic reform in related areas to enhance potential growth. This paper simulates two scenarios in which both an increase in labor force participation and improvement in total factor productivity can significantly enhance the potential GDP growth rate. Relevant policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the latter half of 2010, a new round of inflation has gradually been manifesting in China. The debate regarding whether excess money supply is responsible for this inflation has attracted scholars to investigate the effects of money growth on inflation. In this paper, we use correlation analysis to confirm the comovement between growth of monetary aggregates and inflation. We explore the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on inflation using the Markov regime-switching model. The empirical results show that monetary policy can be more effective in curbing inflation in a high inflation state than in boosting the price level in a low inflation state. However, simply tightening the money supply might not be sufficient to suppress the price level. To this end, the Chinese Government should adopt other policies, such as supply stabilization policies, to help suppress the price level. Our study can help policy-makers to determine the actual economic state and provides some policy implications for the current inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using official provincial data for gross provincial product, consumer price index and other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, the present paper investigates the nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth in China. The main finding of the study is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.50 percent threshold, every 1-percentage point increase in the inflation rate impedes economic growth by 0.61 percent; below this threshold, every 1-percentage point increase in the inflation rate stimulates growth by 0.53 percent. This indicates that high inflation harms economic growth, whereas moderate inflation benefits growth. We suggest that China should maintain a moderate inflation rate for long-run growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short-run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2003, the Chinese Government has been using land policy as an important macroeconomic policy. The present paper analyzes the impact of the expansion of construction land on economic growth in terms of the capital-output ratio. Using provincial panel data for China from 1999 to 2005, we conclude that the excess expansion of China's construction land led to an increase in the capital-output ratio. Therefore, expanding construction land has made little contribution to economic growth. This paper argues that contractionary land policy does not deter high economic growth, and is a necessary condition for a sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economic development is characterized by progressive integration with international production chains as an assembly producer. Japan and South Korea are the major partners providing intermediate products to China. The present paper analyzes the Chinese intermediate sector's present condition and evolutionary characteristics revealed in bilateral trade with Japan and South Korea. The analysis uses the framework of new trade theory represented by “intra-industry trade”. Trade statistics from 1997 to 2004 are analyzed using the database published by the OECD. Results show that China's inter-industrial evolution is characterized by its expanding positioning in the manner of the flying geese development paradigm of Asian countries. Furthermore, intra-industrial evolution is characterized by a concentration on price competitiveness. The framework and results of the industrial analysis presented in this paper assist in the understanding of China's manufacturing evolution and of the policy-making decisions taken in the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper discusses ways of adjusting the imbalances of the global economy and its impact on China's economy. The analysis in the paper shows that the cut of US fiscal deficits and the appreciation of the currencies of East Asia, including China's RMB, are necessary for a smooth adjustment of the global imbalances. The adjustments will have a positive impact on China's economy and will help China realize its external balance. The increase in public spending on the service sector along with the appreciation of RMB will help China realize the internal balance too. The adjustment of the global imbalances will create opportunities and an external pushing force for China in its industrial restructuring and shift in the model of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's foreign trade has entered a new stage, marked by some profound changes since 2003. After 5 years' consecutive high growth, China's foreign trade experienced a significant slowdown in growth following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the development in China's foreign trade over the past 10 years, and to explore important changes that have taken place during this period of time. A major finding of the present paper is that the traditional forces driving the high export growth in China, that is, low-cost labor, low-cost resources and low-cost money, have been disappearing. The policy implication is that over the next 10-15 years, the most important conditions for sustaining high export growth will be promoting the development and export of private enterprises in traditional heavy industries and high-technology industries, and relying on technological progress and high productivity to propel export expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2001, the exports of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) have accounted for more than 50 percent of China's total exports. As foreign capital occupies a high proportion of the total capital of FIEs, most FIEs' capital gains are foreign factor income. Although these gains are calculated as a part of China's GDP, they do not belong to China's national income. To determine the real contribution of exports to China's welfare, the present paper analyses the impact of exports on China's national income using a non-competitive input-output model capturing processing trade. The results show that every US$1000 of China's exports generates US$506.8 of national income. The real contribution of exports to China's welfare is much smaller than what we expected. This suggests that China should endeavor to improve the gains from international markets or find another engine to maintain its economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of migration experience of village leaders on local economic development, based on the village-level data of the 2005 China General Social Survey. Our results show that the human capital of village leaders accumulated during the migration period has had a positive effect on per capita net income and per capita non-agricultural income in rural China. The migration experience of village leaders also plays a positive role in entrepreneurial activities in rural regions. From a policy perspective, these findings call attention to the importance of harnessing potential benefits of return migration to local economic development in rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses both interregional and intraregional innovation inequality in China from 1995 to 2006. It is revealed that the east-central-west inequality has increased over time, whereas the inter-provincial inequality showed a V-pattern until 2003; Both inequality measures oscillated from 2004 to 2006. Using a decomposition framework recently developed by one of the authors, we determined that the major factors driving innovation inequality are population, economic development level, R&D, location and openness. The aggravated innovation inequality reflects the growth of China's innovation centers in the eastern region and their admission into the global innovation networks. The fact that R&D is a major factor driving the inequality suggests that, considered in the present study, the efficiency of R&D investment improved in certian regions during the period (1995-2006). Finally, geographic location and openness affect innovation inequality primarily through the coupled evolution of innovation capability and economic development, resulting in first-mover advantages to provinces of the eastern region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past two decades, the consumption of animal products has increased rapidly in China and India, driven by rising income and large populations. Such strong demand for animal products could have substantial impacts on both their own and global food and feed demand and supply. This paper examines the nature of rising demand for animal products in China and India and discusses national and global implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries affect the growth of local firms in host countries? Using a dataset of 38 sectors in China's electrical and electronics industry, in this paper, we analyze whether FDI has a positive effect on local firms, with technology spillovers, added value and increasing total factor productivity, or a negative, market stealing, effect. Estimating the relationship between growth of local firms and investment of foreign firms, our results show that FDI is likely to have a negative impact on the growth of local firms in sectors with large disparities in technology and less experience in business. Therefore, local firms lacking in technology need to find markets with no competition from foreign firms or determine strategies to compensate technology disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pan Pearl River Delta (PPRD) Regional Co-operation Framework Agreement was signed in 2004. It aims to bring prosperity through partnership among nine Chinese Mainland provinces and China's two special administrative regions. In this paper, we use a dynamic panel data model to examine the economic growth of the PPRD economies from 1985 to 2009. Our analysis confirms the existence of regional growth spillover effects in the PPRD area. Our results also show that economic growth spillover effects of non-PPRD regions on the PPRD regions are greater than those among the PPRD members themselves. These findings imply that economic integration between Chinese provinces has generated considerable spillover effects on regional growth. However, the anticipated benefits of the implementation of the PPRD agreement have not been realized thus far. Therefore, greater effort should be made to promote further economic integration among these members so that their local economies can benefit from the positive spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model, this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank's incentive to stimulate economic growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level, and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank's objective function, so that the central bank's policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents and tests a series of sources of regional variations in self-employment rate in China in the 2000s, and illustrates that the stage of economic development is a major explanation for the variations of self-employment rate across regions over the past decade. The negative relationship between the stage of economic development and self-employment rate identified in the paper indicates that China has entered the process of fast industrialization, and self-employment is playing a diminishing role in economic growth and employment. We also find a substitution effect between self-employment and private enterprises. While both are important components of China's private sector, private enterprises are becoming an increasingly important source of China's economic growth and employment. Furthermore, our findings also imply that when job opportunities are limited, self-employment in China is likely a forced choice of disadvantaged people who are not qualified for wage jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper attempts to combine cointegration theory and the material flow analysis approach to examine the causal relationship between resource use and real GDP in Jiangsu Province in East China. The study considers the period from 1990 to 2007. We use direct material input as the proxy variable for resource use. Our estimation indicates that real GDP and resource use are cointegrated and there is only unidirectional long-run Granger causality running from resource use to real GDP, but not vice versa. The estimation results mean that resources are a limiting factor in terms of economic growth, and, therefore, strategies should be adopted for more vigorous economic development and consistent resource use in East China. Furthermore, the novel idea and methodology involved in the present study can be readily extended to cover other regions for the analysis of the relationship between resource use and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model, we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China's economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period. This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, in forming future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores why labor share in China has declined since the middle of the 1990s. Existing literature usually ascribes the labor share decline in developed countries to biased technological progress. However, our investigation shows that China's case is different. Using a simultaneous equation model estimated with three-stage least squares, we find that FDI, levels of economic development and privatization have negative effects on the labor share. The negative influence of FDI on labor share results from regional competition for FDI, which weakens labor forces' bargaining power. A U-shaped relationship exists between labor share and the level of economic development, and China is now on the declining part of the curve. The negative effects of privatization on the labor share stem from the elimination of the so-called 'wage costs eroding profit' situation and the positive supply shock on the labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from 1986–2005, the present paper estimates the impact of direct knowledge spilled over from G-7 countries on China's economy. We use telephone line penetration rates and personnel flows to estimate the direct spillover effect. Our results show that direct knowledge spillovers through telecommunication networks and personnel flows are important components of international R&D spillovers in China. These direct channels of spillover effectively accelerate China's economic growth. Therefore, China should invest more in human capital and in its telecommunication network to enhance the absorptive capacity of direct R&D spillovers, and to increase communication with other nations, in particular the USA and Japan. More subsidies to domestic R&D research and purchase of intermediate goods will help to raise China's R&D intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migrant workers have become a major element of the labor force in Chinese cities, making important contributions to the economy while forming a socially disadvantaged group. Existing research on the relationship between the level of nutrition and health and income in China mainly focuses on farmers living in rural areas. Based on a Mincer equation and using a survey in Beijing, this paper examines the relationship between migrant workers' nutrition and health levels and their monthly incomes. We find that the nutrition intake and the body mass index have positive effects on income while duration of illness and daily working hours have negative effects. These conclusions imply that the Chinese Government should put more emphasis on improving migrant workers' well-being, including offering educational programs on nutrition and health, and enhancing medical insurance and the old-age insurance system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industry collapse has become an important phenomenon in China's recent economic growth fluctuation. This paper develops a simple model to analyze this phenomenon. Our analysis focuses on an external demand decline-caused industry collapse. The model reveals that the combination of large-scale decline in external demand with a horizontal domestic supply curve causes the domestic export industry to undergo a sharp decrease in output in a short period of time, which further leads to a sharp decline in employment. The conventional stabilization policy is less effective in coping with this sudden industry collapse. The Chinese Government needs to formulate an appropriate structural industry stabilization policy to cope with the sudden industry collapse, and, in particular, to implement a direct employment aid program to deal with unemployment resulting from the industry collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 1987–2006 panel data for China, we explore the dynamics of the skill premium. The present paper focuses on the skill premium as an explanation for why income differences are so large in China. Our empirics show that: the rise in the relative supply of skilled labor results in an increase, instead of a decrease, in the skill premium; domestic investment is not complementary with skill formation; the skillpremium is higher in more developed provinces; economic openness facilitates an increase in the skill premium; whether foreign direct investment induces skill-based technology change or not, it drives up the skillpremium. An array of policy prescriptions for reducing income differences and ensuring sustained economic growth are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying a commonly used index for export sophistication in a cross-country study, Rodrik finds that the technological content of Chinese exports over the past decade has been so high that it cannot be explained simply by the economic fundamentals of a low-income country abundant with unskilled labor. Question has been raised for the empirical robustness of the index. I am also doubtful with Rodrik's analysis but develop my argument from a different perspective. This paper briefly reviews Rodrik's methodology and identifies other factors his empirical results potentially hinge on. Based on this, it elaborates on China's unique processing trade regime, the uneven distribution of its exports across Chinese regions and the limitation of HS codes in terms of identifying differentiated products, in an attempt to show that these factors also contribute to higher estimations of China's export sophistication level. Finally, it organizes trade data to reveal the trade patterns that are indeed consistent with the country's comparative advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong economic growth in China is difficult to reconcile with its inefficient financial system. The puzzle of China's financial development and growth can be explained through a dynamic criterion of adaptive efficiency, rather than through allocative efficiency. Using the framework of an autoregressive distributed lag model, the present paper tests the hypothesis that the GDP growth rate is dependent on financial development along with other variables in China and Pakistan. The hypothesis cannot be rejected in both cases. However, the results show that economic growth has a negative relationship with credit to the private sector in China. We conclude that financial development is a source of China's high growth rate and that the banking system is still under an evolutionary process, involving the pursuit of social objectives instead of the sole objective of profit maximization. Our results provide some implications for other developing countries like Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the case of Taizhou City in Zhejiang Province, the present paper investigates the mechanism of the interaction between the local government and private enterprise in the process of regional economic development. We identify the “Taizhou Model” as a model of institutional innovation and the development of private economy, which is private sector-induced and local government-promoted Indeed, the impact of such mechanisms has had a significant influence on the reforms and development of China s economic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pegged exchange rate regime has been pivotal to China's export-led development strategy. However, its huge trade surpluses and massive build up of international reserves have been matched by large deficits for major trading partners, creating acute policy concerns abroad, especially in the USA. This paper provides a straightforward conceptual framework for interpreting the effect of China's exchange rate policy on its own trade balance and that of trading partners in the context of discrepant economic growth rates. It shows how pegging the exchange rate when output is outstripping expenditure induces China's trade surpluses and counterpart deficits for its trading partners. An important corollary is that given its strictly regulated capital account, China's persistently large surpluses imply a significantly undervalued renminbi, which should gradually become more flexible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic relations between China and ASEAN have further intensified since the 1990s. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows between the two economic giants have reached a new high, attracting the attention of policy-makers and economists. The present paper investigates recent contextual changes and identifies some significant emerging factors that exert influence on the flows of FDI between China and ASEAN. This paper also analyzes the development trend of FDI between the two economies, and it is found that the FDI flows are at a historical turning point. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private capital is one of the main driving forces in China's initiatives towards stimulating the market economy. The development of private economy in China has always been based on integrating industrial and corporate structures with product composition and market structures. This paper explores the development of the private economy and how it integrates different industries with specific markets by analyzing the leading private sector in Zhejiang province. It also examines the trends of industrial cluster, the formation of the agglomerative economy and their effects on private economy development. Finally, the paper explains why Zhejiang people have profited much from the Wenzhou model, and discusses some existing problems and future possibilities for development of the Wenzhou model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This comparison is not restricted to Mumbai and Shanghai but also to Bangalore and Hangzhou, Delhi and Beijing and so on. The Chinese and Indian economies are expected to be the growth engines of the global economy. In this process cities are expected to play an important role, through their transformation into “World Class” cities, a term now doing rounds in the policy circles in Mumbai, to be achieved through massive infrastructure investments made in them. In China, this has been possible because of the decentralized administrative and fiscal system in China. In contrast, in India, the system of urban infrastructure is currently evolving and making a transition from a centralized to a decentralized system. This paper: (i) compares the Chinese and Indian financial systems to explain differences in the quantum of funds available in cities in both countries; (ii) looks at urban responsibility allocations in terms of institutions; and (iii) compares capital investments made by one city each in the two countries, in Beijing (China) and in Mumbai (India). Edited by Xinyu Fan [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central theme of this paper is that China's macroeconomic development can be divided into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China's macroeconomic performance. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses both macro level and sectoral data to study the sources and pattern of China's impressive economic growth over the last 25 years. Extending the growth accounting framework, we show that widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity are to a large extent rooted in China's growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. We find that growth of investment in the industrial sector has been the single most important factor driving gross domestic product and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rural-urban income inequality. Continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth, and widen the rural-urban income gap. However, reducing subsidies to industry and investment, encouraging the development of the services industry, and reducing barriers to labor mobility would result in a more balanced growth and a substantial reduction in the income gap between rural and urban residents. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to continue along its path of sustained economic growth, China will need, probably in just a few years, certainly after 2030, an extremely high number of immigrants. This conclusion, which contrasts with a recent World Bank scenario suggesting that the decline in labor supply due to demographic trends can be faced with sustained growth in productivity, is based upon a demand-driven model of migration. Moreover, according to the same model, the decline in fertility (and the one child policy that has been partially responsible for it) will end up provoking immigration flows above replacement level. The working age population and the total population will continue to increase, and China will remain the most populous country on the planet. The last part of the paper surveys the policies that China could adopt to reduce its structural need for foreign labor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the role of Hong Kong in China's grand scheme to build up the RMB as a global reserve currency. We highlight the economic importance of Hong Kong to China in terms of channeling foreign direct investment into China, some of which, in the future, will be denominated in the RMB. We discuss the development of China's RMB currency swap and deposit markets in Hong Kong. These offshore markets enable the RMB to trade freely, setting the stage for the RMB to become fully convertible and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing the value of the RMB, and help in the development of the RMB-denominated bond (or dim sum bond) market in Hong Kong. Finally, we present evidence of the phenomenal growth of the dim sum bond market in Hong Kong, which can further enhance and strengthen the use of the RMB outside China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China faces serious external (i.e. trade) and internal (i.e. structural) imbalances. Both are related to income inequality, reduction of which will help to increase domestic demand. This paper discusses how income inequality has evolved over time. This is followed by an exploration of the consequences of high inequality. Driving forces underlying the rising inequality are analyzed before providing concrete policy recommendations. It is found that inequality declined in the early period of reform, until the mid to late 1980s, and then began a rising trend up to 2010. Major determinants of inequality include: location, institutional and policy factors, trade and globalization, and education inequality and human capital gaps along rural-urban and spatial divisions. To achieve a balanced economy and a harmonious society, development policies in China must shift from emphasizing growth to prioritizing equality. In addition, government interventions can target rural-urban disparity through rapid urbanization, and tackle regional inequality by developing financial markets, ensuring progressive allocation of fiscal resources, promoting trade and foreign direct investment in inland China, creating more formal jobs and supporting the service sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese outward direct investment (ODI) is expanding at an unprecedented rate. The present study augments the understanding of the determinants and drivers of Chinese ODI. It reviews the literature on Chinese ODI and analyzes investment by state-owned enterprises (SOE) for the period 2003-2008, focusing specifically on the differences between the determinants of Chinese investment in developed (OECD) and developing (non-OECD) economies. In addition, the study assesses the appropriateness of the general framework used for investigating ODI determinants (Dunning's eclectic paradigm) to analyze the experience of Chinese SOE. The findings indicate that Dunning's eclectic paradigm provides an excellent theoretical framework for analyzing the determinants of Chinese SOE investment in developed countries, and provides a good starting point for analysis of Chinese investment in developing countries. However, Dunning's specification requires refinement for developing countries. This paper finds a distinct difference between the motivations for Chinese SOE investment in developed and developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the contribution of exports to growth in China since the early years of the decade. It is estimated that, despite a high import content ranging between 40 and 50 percent, approximately one-third of Chinese growth before the global crisis was a result of exports, due to their phenomenal growth of some 25 percent per annum. This figure increases to 50 percent if spillovers to consumption and investment are allowed for. The main reason for excessive dependence on foreign markets is underconsumption. This is due not so much to a high share of household savings in GDP as to a low share of household income and a high share of profits. It is argued that China can no longer maintain such high growth rates for its exports, and, therefore, needs to turn to consumption-led growth by expanding the share of wages and household income in GDP and accelerating public spending in social infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a structural vector autoregression analysis to quantify the impact of the global financial crisis on China. It is found that the impact is indeed sizeable: a 1-percent decline in economic growth in the USA, the EU and Japan is likely to lead to a 0.73-percent decline in growth in China. The article discusses whether the current measures of fiscal stimulus are adequate to offset the sharp decline in external demand. Although there is little doubt that the massive fiscal stimulus will largely offset the significant shortfalls in external demand, the current growth pattern in China will be increasingly unsustainable in the long term. China's reform cycles suggest that external shocks are often opportunities for structural reforms. Therefore, the crisis could also be a catalyst for rebalancing China's economic structure so as to return the economy to a sustainable path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China's economy to the global financial tsunami. China's economy is lowly leveraged in its banking, household, public and external sectors and, therefore, is less plagued by the global deleveraging than most developed economies. Chinese domestic sectors have improved significantly over the past decade, giving them larger capacity to cope with external shocks than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that China's economic growth is highly dependent on exports, we find that the main growth engine for China is domestic demand. Destocking, rather than falling exports, was the main cause of the sharp economic slowdown in China in late 2008 and early 2009. Therefore, the global economic slowdown should have limited impact on China's economy. We forecast a sustained economic recovery in China in 2009–2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the published literature, the differences in environmental performance across countries are typically explained using the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve states that pollution initially increases with economic growth. Once GDP per capita reaches a certain level, the relationship reverses. In the present paper, we provide an alternative hypothesis, where budget structure plays an important role in explaining the variations in pollution across the world: the lower the business-related taxes as a share of total tax revenue, the higher the property tax in total tax revenue and the higher the ratio of public health expenditure in total expenditure, then the stronger the incentive of pollution control and the lower the pollution level. Our empirical findings reveal that the budget structure does have an important impact on pollution control. The policy implication of this research is that effective control of environmental pollution requires changes in tax structure and expenditure assignment. This research has important policy implications for China's tax system reform and pollution control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirty years have passed since China first adopted the policy of reform and opening up to the outside. Reviewing and appraising the advantages and disadvantages of the government's energy restructuring policy in the intervening years is of great importance to the consideration of future reform and opening-up efforts in this industry. Energy production and supply have been a major part of the national economic restructuring. In this paper, the author proceeds from three angles to review and assess the reform and opening-up efforts in the energy industry, and suggests some direction and priorities for its restructuring in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]