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A micromechanics-based durability model was developed to predict the flexural mechanical properties of thin sheet cementitious composites reinforced with refined and unrefined cellulose fibers when the composite was tested dry, wet, and accelerated (carbonation) aged. The model is based on fracture mechanics and directly links the changes in material structure resulting from environmental deterioration processes to composite flexural mechanical properties. The model was used as a tool to estimate quantitatively cellulose fiber-matrix interfacial microparameters that were too difficult to measure experimentally. Reasonable agreement was found between model predictions and experimentally determined trends in composite flexural mechanical properties and mode of cellulose fiber failure (pullout or rupture) as a function of environment. This supports the validity of the proposed micromechanical modeling parameters.