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Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of medical conditions and risk factors correlating with insulin resistance that increase the risk of developing cardiometabolic health problems. The specific criteria for diagnosing MetS vary among different medical organizations but are typically based on the evaluation of abdominal obesity, high blood pressure, hyperglycemia, and dyslipidemia. A unique, quantitative and independent estimation of the risk of MetS based only on quantitative biomarkers is highly desirable for the comparison between patients and to study the individual progression of the disease in a quantitative manner. Methods We used NMR-based metabolomics on a large cohort of donors (n = 21,323; 37.5% female) to investigate the diagnostic value of serum or serum combined with urine to estimate the MetS risk. Specifically, we have determined 41 circulating metabolites and 112 lipoprotein classes and subclasses in serum samples and this information has been integrated with metabolic profiles extracted from urine samples. Results We have developed MetSCORE, a metabolic model of MetS that combines serum lipoprotein and metabolite information. MetSCORE discriminate patients with MetS (independently identified using the WHO criterium) from general population, with an AUROC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.920–0.952, p

Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a multimorbid long-term condition without consensual medical definition and a diagnostic based on compatible symptomatology. Here we have investigated the molecular signature of MetS in urine. Methods We used NMR-based metabolomics to investigate a European cohort including urine samples from 11,754 individuals (18–75 years old, 41% females), designed to populate all the intermediate conditions in MetS, from subjects without any risk factor up to individuals with developed MetS (4–5%, depending on the definition). A set of quantified metabolites were integrated from the urine spectra to obtain metabolic models (one for each definition), to discriminate between individuals with MetS. Results MetS progression produces a continuous and monotonic variation of the urine metabolome, characterized by up- or down-regulation of the pertinent metabolites (17 in total, including glucose, lipids, aromatic amino acids, salicyluric acid, maltitol, trimethylamine N-oxide, and p-cresol sulfate) with some of the metabolites associated to MetS for the first time. This metabolic signature, based solely on information extracted from the urine spectrum, adds a molecular dimension to MetS definition and it was used to generate models that can identify subjects with MetS (AUROC values between 0.83 and 0.87). This signature is particularly suitable to add meaning to the conditions that are in the interface between healthy subjects and MetS patients. Aging and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease are also risk factors that may enhance MetS probability, but they do not directly interfere with the metabolic discrimination of the syndrome. Conclusions Urine metabolomics, studied by NMR spectroscopy, unravelled a set of metabolites that concomitantly evolve with MetS progression, that were used to derive and validate a molecular definition of MetS and to discriminate the conditions that are in the interface between healthy individuals and the metabolic syndrome.