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Background: Success rates of atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation have been shown to be significantly lower for patients with persistent AF. However, little is known about the risk factors predicting progression to persistent AF in patients awaiting AF ablation., Methods: We performed a retrospective, single-centre investigation of patients with paroxysmal AF at the time of placement on the ablation waiting list. Patients were defined as having progressed if they had developed self-reported or electrocardiogram-recorded AF durations more than 7 days while awaiting ablation. After ablation, clinical visits at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 18 months were performed with a minimum of a 48-hour-Holter and electrocardiogram. Baseline characteristics including left atrial diameter (LA) and the HATCH score were analyzed by univariable and multivariable analysis for predicting progression to persistent AF., Results: During a median waiting time of 9.7 (6.1, 14.2) months, 60 of 564 patients (11%) progressed to persistent AF. In patients who progressed, ablation took longer (180 [150, 249] minutes vs 157 [125, 210] minutes; P = 0.009) and was associated with a higher rate of recurrence after a median of 12 months (53.3% vs 39.1%; P < 0.001). The HATCH score was a poor predictor of AF progression (area under the curve 0.54), whereas an LA diameter of more than 45 mm (odds ratio 3.46, P < 0.001) and heart failure (odds ratio 3.11, P = 0.036) were strong and independent predictors of AF progression in multivariable analysis., Conclusions: Patients with an increased LA diameter or heart failure have a significantly increased risk of progression to persistent AF. These characteristics may define patients who should undergo earlier catheter ablation to optimize outcome., (Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: There is a paucity of data that compare traditional vitamin K antagonist (VKA) with novel oral anticoagulant regimens in periprocedural management of cardioversion or ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to compare outcomes of use of VKA, dabigatran (DABI), and rivaroxaban (RIVA) anticoagulation around the time of intervention., Methods: We studied consecutive patients undergoing cardioversion or ablation of AF at our centre from October 2010 to October 2013. There were 3 different anticoagulation groups: warfarin (VKA), DABI, and RIVA. Safety was assessed according to number of strokes, transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), and clinically important and not important bleeding events., Results: Baseline characteristics were well balanced between the groups. Average follow-up was 6 months (± 4 months). A total of 901 patients who underwent cardioversion were studied (VKA [n = 471], DABI [n = 288] and RIVA [n = 141]). In these patients there were no strokes seen during follow-up and 2 TIAs in the DABI group. Bleeding rates were low, with no significant difference between the 3 groups. A total of 680 patients who underwent ablation were studied (VKA [n = 319], DABI [n = 220] and RIVA [n = 171]). There were no strokes reported during follow-up and 3 TIAs: 2 in the VKA group and 1 in the DABI group not resulting in a significant difference between the groups. Bleeding rates were low, with no significant difference between the groups., Conclusions: Overall, there was a low incidence of adverse events for all anticoagulation regimens. Warfarin, DABI, and RIVA use around the time of the procedure are safe and reasonable options for patients who undergo cardioversion or AF ablation., (Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)