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Background: Response to lithium in patients with bipolar disorder is associated with clinical and transdiagnostic genetic factors. The predictive combination of these variables might help clinicians better predict which patients will respond to lithium treatment., Aims: To use a combination of transdiagnostic genetic and clinical factors to predict lithium response in patients with bipolar disorder., Method: This study utilised genetic and clinical data (n = 1034) collected as part of the International Consortium on Lithium Genetics (ConLi+Gen) project. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were computed for schizophrenia and major depressive disorder, and then combined with clinical variables using a cross-validated machine-learning regression approach. Unimodal, multimodal and genetically stratified models were trained and validated using ridge, elastic net and random forest regression on 692 patients with bipolar disorder from ten study sites using leave-site-out cross-validation. All models were then tested on an independent test set of 342 patients. The best performing models were then tested in a classification framework., Results: The best performing linear model explained 5.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response and was composed of clinical variables, PRS variables and interaction terms between them. The best performing non-linear model used only clinical variables and explained 8.1% (P = 0.0001) of variance in lithium response. A priori genomic stratification improved non-linear model performance to 13.7% (P = 0.0001) and improved the binary classification of lithium response. This model stratified patients based on their meta-polygenic loadings for major depressive disorder and schizophrenia and was then trained using clinical data., Conclusions: Using PRS to first stratify patients genetically and then train machine-learning models with clinical predictors led to large improvements in lithium response prediction. When used with other PRS and biological markers in the future this approach may help inform which patients are most likely to respond to lithium treatment.

Background: Little is known about the impact of insulin resistance on bipolar disorder., Aims: To examine the relationships between insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes and clinical course and treatment outcomes in bipolar disorder., Method: We measured fasting glucose and insulin in 121 adults with bipolar disorder. We diagnosed type 2 diabetes and determined insulin resistance. The National Institute of Mental Health Life Chart was used to record the course of bipolar disorder and the Alda scale to establish response to prophylactic lithium treatment., Results: Patients with bipolar disorder and type 2 diabetes or insulin resistance had three times higher odds of a chronic course of bipolar disorder compared with euglycaemic patients (50% and 48.7% respectively v. 27.3%, odds ratio (OR) = 3.07, P = 0.007), three times higher odds of rapid cycling (38.5% and 39.5% respectively v. 18.2%, OR = 3.13, P = 0.012) and were more likely to be refractory to lithium treatment (36.8% and 36.7% respectively v. 3.2%, OR = 8.40, P<0.0001). All associations remained significant after controlling for antipsychotic exposure and body mass index in sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: Comorbid insulin resistance may be an important factor in resistance to treatment in bipolar disorder., (Royal College of Psychiatrists.)