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Alzheimer's disease typically progresses in stages, which have been defined by the presence of disease-specific biomarkers: amyloid (A), tau (T) and neurodegeneration (N). This progression of biomarkers has been condensed into the ATN framework, in which each of the biomarkers can be either positive (+) or negative (−). Over the past decades, genome-wide association studies have implicated ∼90 different loci involved with the development of late-onset Alzheimer's disease. Here, we investigate whether genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease contributes equally to the progression in different disease stages or whether it exhibits a stage-dependent effect. Amyloid (A) and tau (T) status was defined using a combination of available PET and CSF biomarkers in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort. In 312 participants with biomarker-confirmed A−T− status, we used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the contribution of APOE and polygenic risk scores (beyond APOE) to convert to A+T− status (65 conversions). Furthermore, we repeated the analysis in 290 participants with A+T− status and investigated the genetic contribution to conversion to A+T+ (45 conversions). Both survival analyses were adjusted for age, sex and years of education. For progression from A−T− to A+T−, APOE-e4 burden showed a significant effect [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.70–4.89; P < 0.001], whereas polygenic risk did not (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.84–1.42; P = 0.53). Conversely, for the transition from A+T− to A+T+, the contribution of APOE-e4 burden was reduced (HR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.05–2.51; P = 0.031), whereas the polygenic risk showed an increased contribution (HR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.27–2.36; P < 0.001). The marginal APOE effect was driven by e4 homozygotes (HR = 2.58; 95% CI: 1.05–6.35; P = 0.039) as opposed to e4 heterozygotes (HR = 1.74; 95% CI: 0.87–3.49; P = 0.12). The genetic risk for late-onset Alzheimer's disease unfolds in a disease stage-dependent fashion. A better understanding of the interplay between disease stage and genetic risk can lead to a more mechanistic understanding of the transition between ATN stages and a better understanding of the molecular processes leading to Alzheimer's disease, in addition to opening therapeutic windows for targeted interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amyloid-β is thought to facilitate the spread of tau throughout the neocortex in Alzheimer's disease, though how this occurs is not well understood. This is because of the spatial discordance between amyloid-β, which accumulates in the neocortex, and tau, which accumulates in the medial temporal lobe during ageing. There is evidence that in some cases amyloid-β-independent tau spreads beyond the medial temporal lobe where it may interact with neocortical amyloid-β. This suggests that there may be multiple distinct spatiotemporal subtypes of Alzheimer's-related protein aggregation, with potentially different demographic and genetic risk profiles. We investigated this hypothesis, applying data-driven disease progression subtyping models to post-mortem neuropathology and in vivo PET-based measures from two large observational studies: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (ROSMAP). We consistently identified 'amyloid-first' and 'tau-first' subtypes using cross-sectional information from both studies. In the amyloid-first subtype, extensive neocortical amyloid-β precedes the spread of tau beyond the medial temporal lobe, while in the tau-first subtype, mild tau accumulates in medial temporal and neocortical areas prior to interacting with amyloid-β. As expected, we found a higher prevalence of the amyloid-first subtype among apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele carriers while the tau-first subtype was more common among APOE ε4 non-carriers. Within tau-first APOE ε4 carriers, we found an increased rate of amyloid-β accumulation (via longitudinal amyloid PET), suggesting that this rare group may belong within the Alzheimer's disease continuum. We also found that tau-first APOE ε4 carriers had several fewer years of education than other groups, suggesting a role for modifiable risk factors in facilitating amyloid-β-independent tau. Tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, in contrast, recapitulated many of the features of primary age-related tauopathy. The rate of longitudinal amyloid-β and tau accumulation (both measured via PET) within this group did not differ from normal ageing, supporting the distinction of primary age-related tauopathy from Alzheimer's disease. We also found reduced longitudinal subtype consistency within tau-first APOE ε4 non-carriers, suggesting additional heterogeneity within this group. Our findings support the idea that amyloid-β and tau may begin as independent processes in spatially disconnected regions, with widespread neocortical tau resulting from the local interaction of amyloid-β and tau. The site of this interaction may be subtype-dependent: medial temporal lobe in amyloid-first, neocortex in tau-first. These insights into the dynamics of amyloid-β and tau may inform research and clinical trials that target these pathologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based tools are widely employed, but their use for diagnosis and prognosis of neurological disorders is still evolving. Here we analyse a cross-sectional multicentre structural MRI dataset of 696 people with epilepsy and 118 control subjects. We use an innovative machine-learning algorithm, Subtype and Stage Inference, to develop a novel data-driven disease taxonomy, whereby epilepsy subtypes correspond to distinct patterns of spatiotemporal progression of brain atrophy.In a discovery cohort of 814 individuals, we identify two subtypes common to focal and idiopathic generalized epilepsies, characterized by progression of grey matter atrophy driven by the cortex or the basal ganglia. A third subtype, only detected in focal epilepsies, was characterized by hippocampal atrophy. We corroborate external validity via an independent cohort of 254 people and confirm that the basal ganglia subtype is associated with the most severe epilepsy.Our findings suggest fundamental processes underlying the progression of epilepsy-related brain atrophy. We deliver a novel MRI- and AI-guided epilepsy taxonomy, which could be used for individualized prognostics and targeted therapeutics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

TAR DNA-binding protein-43 (TDP-43) accumulation is the primary pathology underlying several neurodegenerative diseases. Charting the progression and heterogeneity of TDP-43 accumulation is necessary to better characterize TDP-43 proteinopathies, but current TDP-43 staging systems are heuristic and assume each syndrome is homogeneous. Here, we use data-driven disease progression modelling to derive a fine-grained empirical staging system for the classification and differentiation of frontotemporal lobar degeneration due to TDP-43 (FTLD-TDP, n = 126), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, n = 141) and limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) with and without Alzheimer's disease (n = 304). The data-driven staging of ALS and FTLD-TDP complement and extend previously described human-defined staging schema for ALS and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. In LATE-NC individuals, progression along data-driven stages was positively associated with age, but negatively associated with age in individuals with FTLD-TDP. Using only regional TDP-43 severity, our data driven model distinguished individuals diagnosed with ALS, FTLD-TDP or LATE-NC with a cross-validated accuracy of 85.9%, with misclassifications associated with mixed pathological diagnosis, age and genetic mutations. Adding age and SuStaIn stage to this model increased accuracy to 92.3%. Our model differentiates LATE-NC from FTLD-TDP, though some overlap was observed between late-stage LATE-NC and early-stage FTLD-TDP. We further tested for the presence of subtypes with distinct regional TDP-43 progression patterns within each diagnostic group, identifying two distinct cortical-predominant and brainstem-predominant subtypes within FTLD-TDP and a further two subcortical-predominant and corticolimbic-predominant subtypes within ALS. The FTLD-TDP subtypes exhibited differing proportions of TDP-43 type, while there was a trend for age differing between ALS subtypes. Interestingly, a negative relationship between age and SuStaIn stage was seen in the brainstem/subcortical-predominant subtype of each proteinopathy. No subtypes were observed for the LATE-NC group, despite aggregating individuals with and without Alzheimer's disease and a larger sample size for this group. Overall, we provide an empirical pathological TDP-43 staging system for ALS, FTLD-TDP and LATE-NC, which yielded accurate classification. We further demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst ALS and FTLD-TDP progression patterns that warrants further investigation in larger cross-cohort studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dementia is one of the most debilitating aspects of Parkinson's disease. There are no validated biomarkers that can track Parkinson's disease progression, nor accurately identify patients who will develop dementia and when. Understanding the sequence of observable changes in Parkinson's disease in people at elevated risk for developing dementia could provide an integrated biomarker for identifying and managing individuals who will develop Parkinson's dementia. We aimed to estimate the sequence of clinical and neurodegeneration events, and variability in this sequence, using data-driven statistical modelling in two separate Parkinson's cohorts, focusing on patients at elevated risk for dementia due to their age at symptom onset. We updated a novel version of an event-based model that has only recently been extended to cope naturally with clinical data, enabling its application in Parkinson's disease for the first time. The observational cohorts included healthy control subjects and patients with Parkinson's disease, of whom those diagnosed at age 65 or older were classified as having high risk of dementia. The model estimates that Parkinson's progression in patients at elevated risk for dementia starts with classic prodromal features of Parkinson's disease (olfaction, sleep), followed by early deficits in visual cognition and increased brain iron content, followed later by a less certain ordering of neurodegeneration in the substantia nigra and cortex, neuropsychological cognitive deficits, retinal thinning in dopamine layers, and further deficits in visual cognition. Importantly, we also characterize variation in the sequence. We found consistent, cross-validated results within cohorts, and agreement between cohorts on the subset of features available in both cohorts. Our sequencing results add powerful support to the increasing body of evidence suggesting that visual processing specifically is affected early in patients with Parkinson's disease at elevated risk of dementia. This opens a route to earlier and more precise detection, as well as a more detailed understanding of the pathological mechanisms underpinning Parkinson's dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Posterior cortical atrophy is a clinico-radiological syndrome characterized by progressive decline in visual processing and atrophy of posterior brain regions. With the majority of cases attributable to Alzheimer's disease and recent evidence for genetic risk factors specifically related to posterior cortical atrophy, the syndrome can provide important insights into selective vulnerability and phenotypic diversity. The present study describes the first major longitudinal investigation of posterior cortical atrophy disease progression. Three hundred and sixty-one individuals (117 posterior cortical atrophy, 106 typical Alzheimer's disease, 138 controls) fulfilling consensus criteria for posterior cortical atrophy-pure and typical Alzheimer's disease were recruited from three centres in the UK, Spain and USA. Participants underwent up to six annual assessments involving MRI scans and neuropsychological testing. We constructed longitudinal trajectories of regional brain volumes within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using differential equation models. We compared and contrasted the order in which regional brain volumes become abnormal within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using event-based models. We also examined trajectories of cognitive decline and the order in which different cognitive tests show abnormality using the same models. Temporally aligned trajectories for eight regions of interest revealed distinct (P < 0.002) patterns of progression in posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed early occipital and parietal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion leading to tissue loss of comparable extent later. Hippocampal, entorhinal and frontal regions underwent a lower rate of change and never approached the extent of posterior cortical involvement. Patients with typical Alzheimer's disease showed early hippocampal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion. Cognitive models showed tests sensitive to visuospatial dysfunction declined earlier in posterior cortical atrophy than typical Alzheimer's disease whilst tests sensitive to working memory impairment declined earlier in typical Alzheimer's disease than posterior cortical atrophy. These findings indicate that posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease have distinct sites of onset and different profiles of spatial and temporal progression. The ordering of disease events both motivates investigation of biological factors underpinning phenotypic heterogeneity, and informs the selection of measures for clinical trials in posterior cortical atrophy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article.Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T2 lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T2 lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

See Li and Donohue (doi:10.1093/brain/awy089) for a scientific commentary on this article.Dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease is widely hoped to hold the key to developing interventions for sporadic late onset Alzheimer's disease. We use emerging techniques in generative data-driven disease progression modelling to characterize dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression with unprecedented resolution, and without relying upon familial estimates of years until symptom onset. We retrospectively analysed biomarker data from the sixth data freeze of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study, including measures of amyloid proteins and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain, regional brain volumes and cortical thicknesses, brain glucose hypometabolism, and cognitive performance from the Mini-Mental State Examination (all adjusted for age, years of education, sex, and head size, as appropriate). Data included 338 participants with known mutation status (211 mutation carriers in three subtypes: 163 PSEN1, 17 PSEN2, and 31 APP) and a baseline visit (age 19-66; up to four visits each, 1.1 ± 1.9 years in duration; spanning 30 years before, to 21 years after, parental age of symptom onset). We used an event-based model to estimate sequences of biomarker changes from baseline data across disease subtypes (mutation groups), and a differential equation model to estimate biomarker trajectories from longitudinal data (up to 66 mutation carriers, all subtypes combined). The two models concur that biomarker abnormality proceeds as follows: amyloid deposition in cortical then subcortical regions (∼24 ± 11 years before onset); phosphorylated tau (17 ± 8 years), tau and amyloid-β changes in cerebrospinal fluid; neurodegeneration first in the putamen and nucleus accumbens (up to 6 ± 2 years); then cognitive decline (7 ± 6 years), cerebral hypometabolism (4 ± 4 years), and further regional neurodegeneration. Our models predicted symptom onset more accurately than predictions that used familial estimates: root mean squared error of 1.35 years versus 5.54 years. The models reveal hidden detail on dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression, as well as providing data-driven systems for fine-grained patient staging and prediction of symptom onset with great potential utility in clinical trials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young et al. reformulate an event-based model for the progression of Alzheimer's disease to make it applicable to a heterogeneous sporadic disease population. The enhanced model predicts the ordering of biomarker abnormality in sporadic Alzheimer's disease independently of clinical diagnoses or biomarker cut-points, and shows state-of-the-art diagnostic classification performance.We demonstrate the use of a probabilistic generative model to explore the biomarker changes occurring as Alzheimer’s disease develops and progresses. We enhanced the recently introduced event-based model for use with a multi-modal sporadic disease data set. This allows us to determine the sequence in which Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers become abnormal without reliance on a priori clinical diagnostic information or explicit biomarker cut points. The model also characterizes the uncertainty in the ordering and provides a natural patient staging system. Two hundred and eighty-five subjects (92 cognitively normal, 129 mild cognitive impairment, 64 Alzheimer’s disease) were selected from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with measurements of 14 Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers including cerebrospinal fluid proteins, regional magnetic resonance imaging brain volume and rates of atrophy measures, and cognitive test scores. We used the event-based model to determine the sequence of biomarker abnormality and its uncertainty in various population subgroups. We used patient stages assigned by the event-based model to discriminate cognitively normal subjects from those with Alzheimer’s disease, and predict conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease and cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment. The model predicts that cerebrospinal fluid levels become abnormal first, followed by rates of atrophy, then cognitive test scores, and finally regional brain volumes. In amyloid-positive (cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-β1–42 < 192 pg/ml) or APOE-positive (one or more APOE4 alleles) subjects, the model predicts with high confidence that the cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers become abnormal in a distinct sequence: amyloid-β1–42, phosphorylated tau, total tau. However, in the broader population total tau and phosphorylated tau are found to be earlier cerebrospinal fluid markers than amyloid-β1–42, albeit with more uncertainty. The model’s staging system strongly separates cognitively normal and Alzheimer’s disease subjects (maximum classification accuracy of 99%), and predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease (maximum balanced accuracy of 77% over 3 years), and from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment (maximum balanced accuracy of 76% over 5 years). By fitting Cox proportional hazards models, we find that baseline model stage is a significant risk factor for conversion from both mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease (P = 2.06 × 10−7) and cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment (P = 0.033). The data-driven model we describe supports hypothetical models of biomarker ordering in amyloid-positive and APOE-positive subjects, but suggests that biomarker ordering in the wider population may diverge from this sequence. The model provides useful disease staging information across the full spectrum of disease progression, from cognitively normal to mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease. This approach has broad application across neurodegenerative disease, providing insights into disease biology, as well as staging and prognostication. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]