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We assessed novel factors and the immunodeficiency scoring index (ISI) to predict progression to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients presenting with upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) with 12 viruses in the PCR era. We retrospectively analyzed the first respiratory virus detected by multiplex PCR in allogeneic HCT recipients (4/2008-9/2018). We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine factors for progression to LRTI within 90 days among patients presenting with URTI. A total of 1027 patients (216 children and 811 adults) presented with URTI only. Among these, 189 (18%) progressed to LRTI (median: 12 days). Multivariable models demonstrated a history of 1 transplant, age ≥40 years, time post-HCT (≤30 days), systemic steroids, hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia, cytopenia, and high ISI (scores 7-12) were associated with an increased risk of progression to LRTI. Respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus showed the highest progression risk. Patients with ≥3 independent risk factors or high ISI scores were highly likely to progress to LRTI. We identified novel risk factors for progression to LRTI, including history of multiple transplants and hyperglycemia, suggesting an intervention opportunity with glycemic control. ISI and number of risk factors appear to predict disease progression across several viruses.

We examined associations between specific antibiotic exposures and progression to lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) following individual respiratory viral infections (RVIs) after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We analyzed allogeneic HCT recipients of all ages with their first RVI during the first 100 days post-HCT. For the 21 days before RVI onset, we recorded any receipt of specific groups of antibiotics, and the cumulative sum of the number of antibiotics received for each day (antibiotic-days). We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the relationship between antibiotic exposure and progression to LRTD. Among 469 patients with RVI, 124 progressed to LRTD. Compared to no antibiotics, use of antibiotics with broad anaerobic activity in the prior 21 days was associated with progression to LRTD after adjusting for age, virus type, hypoalbuminemia, neutropenia, steroid use, and monocytopenia (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.1). Greater use of those antibiotics (≥7 antibiotic days) was also associated with LRTD in adjusted models (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.3). Results were similar after adjusting for lymphopenia instead of monocytopenia. Antibiotic use is associated with LRTD after RVI across different viruses in HCT recipients. Prospective studies using anaerobe-sparing antibiotics should be explored to assess impact on LRTD in patients undergoing HCT.