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We aimed to develop and validate a fracture risk algorithm for the automatic identification of subjects at high risk of imminent and long-term fracture risk.A cohort of subjects aged 50-85, between 2007 and 2017, was extracted from the Catalan information system for the development of research in primary care database (SIDIAP). Participants were followed until the earliest of death, transfer out, fracture, or 12/31/2017. Potential risk factors were obtained based on the existing literature. Cox regression was used to model 1 and 5-year risk of hip and major fracture. The original cohort was randomly split in 80:20 for development and internal validation purposes respectively. External validation was explored in a cohort extracted from the Spanish database for pharmaco-epidemiological research in primary care.A total of 1.76 million people were included from SIDIAP (50.7 % women with mean age of 65.4 years). Hip and major fracture incidence rates were 3.57 [95%CI 3.53 to 3.60] and 11.61 [95%CI 11.54 to 11.68] per 1000 person-years, respectively. The derived model included 19 risk factors. Internal validity showed good results on calibration and discrimination. The 1-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.851 (95%CI 0.853 to 0.864), and 0.717 (95%CI 0.742 to 0.749) respectively. The 5-year C-statistic for hip and major fracture were 0.849 (95%CI 0.847 to 0.852) and 0.724 (95%CI 0.721 to 0.727) respectively. External validation showed good performance for hip and major fracture risk prediction.We have developed and validated a clinical prediction tool for 1- and 5-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risks using electronic primary care data. The proposed algorithm can be automatically estimated at the population level using the available primary care records. Future work is needed on the cost-effectiveness of its use for population-based screening and targeted prevention of osteoporotic fractures.

Objective To determine whether there is an increased risk of hip fracture associated with the use of proton pump inhibitors in a Mediterranean area after adjusting for other potential risk factors. Methods Retrospective multicenter case–control study carried out in 6 primary health care centers in Catalonia, Spain. Cases were patients aged 50 years and over with a fragility hip fracture registered between January 2007 and December 2010, matched with 2 controls by sex and age. Data collected: use of proton pump inhibitors (type, dosage) in the 5 years previous to the hip fracture, socio-demographic data, body mass index, alcohol and tobacco consumption as well as health conditions and drugs associated with an increase risk of fragility hip fracture. Results 358 cases were matched with 698 controls. The mean age was 82 years old in both groups. Women represented 77.1% in the case group and 76.9% in the control group. Crude association between proton pump inhibitors and hip fracture was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.09–1.89) and adjusted OR was 1.24 (95% CI, 0.93–1.65). No association was found with the continuous or discontinuous use of proton pump inhibitors, OR 1.17 (95% CI, 0.77–1.79), and OR of 1.16 (95% CI, 0.85–1.60) respectively. No association was found when restricting the analysis by sex, OR of 1.19 (95% CI, 0.27–5.14) or by age, younger or older than 80 years, OR of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.24–2.15). Conclusion The use of proton pump inhibitors was not associated with an increased risk of hip fracture after adjusting for other risk factors in a Mediterranean area. This result suggests the existence of protective environmental factors linked to this southern area of Europe that eventually could compensate for the potential harm produced by proton pump inhibitors.