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This paper utilizes available aggregate country-level data, as well as bilateral trade and investment data, to identify signs of fragmentation in trade and investment patterns among ten major trading countries or regional trading blocks. We compare the trade and investment trends in the years during the US-China trade war and increase in geopolitical tensions (2018-2021) against the years preceding the trade war (2014-2017). Our analysis generally corroborates findings in the existing literature. Bilateral flows between the US and China have been damaged, but there is little evidence of wider fragmentation or that the world is splitting into competing spheres. Even focusing on technologyintensive manufactures that are increasingly subject to trade restrictions, we find no evidence of broad fragmentation. Our analysis does reveal, however, shifts in global trade and FDI, particularly towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and ASEAN countries. This may reflect a partial reshuffling of global value chains that is a natural outcome of favorable developments in these regions, as well as rising production costs in China. Such shifts do not necessarily reflect global fragmentation driven by geoeconomics factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This policy brief provides an overview of Finland’s dependency on imports from China in both a national and EU context. As trade figures based on value added only provide a rough notion of China’s contribution to final consumption, we also consider import dependence from the goods imports figures of Finnish Customs to assess import dependence directly for specific product groups. As many products of Chinese origin are imported as semifinished goods or components for products finished in another EU country, we break down also the import dependency of the EU on China by specific product groups. We then compare Finland’s domestic production of select industrial product groups against comparable imports from China. We analyze Finland’s dependence on China for critical raw materials and identify potential alternative sources for key product groups for which Finland and the EU are currently dependent on China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BOFIT Policy Brief is the property of Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

China's real estate and construction sector has served as a major engine of economic growth in recent decades and the sector now plays an oversized role in the economy. Much of that growth has been debt-fuelled, with the indebtedness of developers climbing to unprecedented levels. After officials turned off the money spigot last year, housing markets cooled and a wave of financial difficulties washed over builders during autumn 2021. The entire sector found itself under heavy stress, and in December two major developers, Evergrande and Kaisa, defaulted on their offshore debt. In this brief, we consider the current conditions in China's real estate and construction sector and how a possible sectoral crisis could spread to the national economy and the euro area. While the direct financial impacts on the euro area's financial sector is likely to be minor, China's real estate sector problems could spill over widely into the domestic real economy and thereby increase uncertainty internationally. In such case, the indirect impacts on the euro area could be severe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BOFIT Policy Brief is the property of Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

China is by far the world's largest consumer of primary energy. Its vast energy demands are a leading issue for global energy use, driving pollution trends and prices on commodity markets. Despite huge increases in non-fossil capacity from nuclear and renewables, China still burns tremendous amounts of coal to meet its primary energy needs. Domestic energy consumption has risen faster than energy production, and thereby increased China's dependence on energy imports. China is the world's largest polluter, so any effort on the country's part towards cleaner energy has major implications for global decarbonisation efforts. This overview comprises ten briefs on China's energy sector. They cover recent developments in energy use and the shifting dynamics in primary power generation aimed at meeting China's energy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BOFIT Policy Brief is the property of Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the development of economic relations between Russia and China in recent years, focusing on how the slowdown in China's growth and changes in its economic structures might impact Russia's economic outlook and the future of China-Russia economic relations. Economic relations between the countries have progressed favorably over the past decade with increased trade and Russian oil exports to China buoying Russian economic growth. While this trade cooperation has served both countries' interests, it has also reinforced Russia's dependence on commodity exports. Like the rest of the world, Russia has to deal with China's slowing economic growth. Those repercussions, however, are particularly challenging in Russia's case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BOFIT Policy Brief is the property of Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper we estimate whether monetary policy rules of Bank of Russia have changed during the recent past. Russia has moved towards inflation targeting throughout past years, and this is reflected in our empirical estimations. We start by estimating various monetary policy rules for Russia, concluding that a variant of Taylor rule depicts Bank of Russia's monetary policy quite well during the past decade or so. Moreover, there clearly have been two breaks in the coefficients of the estimated monetary policy rule, possibly signifying shift towards traditional inflation targeting, but also the current recent economic turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of BOFIT Policy Brief is the property of Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)