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PurposeThe presence of distinct child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) and adult mental health services (AMHS) impacts continuity of mental health treatment for young people. However, we do not know the extent of discontinuity of care in Europe nor the effects of discontinuity on the mental health of young people. Current research is limited, as the majority of existing studies are retrospective, based on small samples or used non-standardised information from medical records. The MILESTONE prospective cohort study aims to examine associations between service use, mental health and other outcomes over 24 months, using information from self, parent and clinician reports.ParticipantsSeven hundred sixty-three young people from 39 CAMHS in 8 European countries, their parents and CAMHS clinicians who completed interviews and online questionnaires and were followed up for 2 years after reaching the upper age limit of the CAMHS they receive treatment at.Findings to dateThis cohort profile describes the baseline characteristics of the MILESTONE cohort. The mental health of young people reaching the upper age limit of their CAMHS varied greatly in type and severity: 32.8% of young people reported clinical levels of self-reported problems and 18.6% were rated to be ‘markedly ill’, ‘severely ill’ or ‘among the most extremely ill’ by their clinician. Fifty-seven per cent of young people reported psychotropic medication use in the previous half year.Future plansAnalysis of longitudinal data from the MILESTONE cohort will be used to assess relationships between the demographic and clinical characteristics of young people reaching the upper age limit of their CAMHS and the type of care the young person uses over the next 2 years, such as whether the young person transitions to AMHS. At 2 years follow-up, the mental health outcomes of young people following different care pathways will be compared.Trial registration numberNCT03013595., publishedVersion

BackgroundStratified care has the potential to be efficient in addressing the physical and psychosocial components of low back pain (LBP) and optimise treatment outcomes essential in low-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the perceptions of physiotherapists and patients in Nigeria towards stratified care for the treatment of LBP, exploring barriers and enablers to implementation.MethodsA qualitative design with semistructured individual telephone interviews for physiotherapists and patients with LBP comprising research evidence and information on stratified care was adopted. Preceding the interviews, patients completed the Subgroups for Targeted Treatment tool. The interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed following grounded theory methodology.ResultsTwelve physiotherapists and 13 patients with LBP participated in the study (11 female, mean age 42.8 (SD 11.47) years). Seven key categories emerged: recognising the need for change, acceptance of innovation, resistance to change, adapting practice, patient’s learning journey, trusting the therapist and needing conviction. Physiotherapists perceived stratified care to be a familiar approach based on their background training. The prevalent treatment tradition and the patient expectations were seen as major barriers to implementation of stratified care by the physiotherapists. Patients see themselves as more informed than therapists realise, yet they need conviction through communication and education to cooperate with their therapist using this approach. Viable facilitators were also identified as patients’ trust in the physiotherapist and adaptations in terms of training and modification of the approach to enhance its use.ConclusionKey barriers identified are the patients’ treatment expectations and physiotherapists’ adherence to the tradition of practice. Physiotherapists might facilitate implementation of the stratified care by communication, hierarchical implementation and utilisation of patients’ trust. Possibilities to develop a consensus on key strategies to overcome barriers and on utilisation of facilitators should be tested in future research.

ObjectivesTo describe healthcare utilization and estimate associated costs during 1 year of follow-up among older people seeking primary care due to a new episode back pain and to describe healthcare utilization across patients with different risk profiles stratified using the StarT Back Screening Tool (SBST).DesignProspective cohort study.Participants and settingA total of 452 people aged ≥55 years seeking Norwegian primary care with a new episode of back pain were included.Outcome measuresThe primary outcome of this study was total cost of healthcare utilization aggregated for 1 year of follow-up. Secondary outcomes included components of healthcare utilization aggregated for 1 year of follow-up. Healthcare utilization was self-reported and included: primary care consultations, medications, examinations, hospitalisation, rehabilitation stay, and operations. Costs were estimated based on unit costs collected from national pricelists. Healthcare utilization across patients with different SBST risk profiles was compared using Kruskal-Wallis test, post hoc Mann-Whitney U tests and Bonferroni adjustment.ResultsIn total, 438 patients were included in the analysis. Mean (BCa 95% CI) total cost per patient over 1 year was €825 (682-976). Median (BCa 95% CI) total cost was €364 (307-440). The largest cost category was primary care consultations, accounting for 56% of total costs. Imaging rate was 34%. The most commonly used medication was paracetamol (27%–35% of patients). Medium- and high-risk patients had a significantly higher degree of healthcare utilization compared with low-risk patients (pConclusionThis study estimated a 1 year mean and median cost of healthcare utilization of €825 and €364, respectively. Patients within the top 25th percentile accounted for 77% of all costs. Patients classified as medium risk and high risk had a significantly higher degree of healthcare utilization compared with patients classified as low risk.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov NCT04261309, results

ObjectiveTo identify factors associated with accessing and utilisation of healthcare and provision of health services in slums.DesignA scoping review incorporating a conceptual framework for configuring reported factors.Data sourcesMEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched from their inception to December 2021 using slum-related terms.Eligibility criteriaEmpirical studies of all designs reporting relevant factors in slums in low and middle-income countries.Data extraction and synthesisStudies were categorised and data were charted according to a preliminary conceptual framework refined by emerging findings. Results were tabulated and narratively summarised.ResultsOf the 15 469 records retrieved from all years, 4368 records dated between 2016 and 2021 were screened by two independent reviewers and 111 studies were included. The majority (63 studies, 57%) were conducted in Asia, predominantly in India. In total, 104 studies examined healthcare access and utilisation from slum residents’ perspective while only 10 studies explored provision of health services from providers/planners’ perspective (three studies included both). A multitude of factors are associated with accessing, using and providing healthcare in slums, including recent migration to slums; knowledge, perception and past experience of illness, healthcare needs and health services; financial constraint and competing priorities between health and making a living; lacking social support; unfavourable physical environment and locality; sociocultural expectations and stigma; lack of official recognition; and existing problems in the health system.ConclusionThe scoping review identified a significant body of recent literature reporting factors associated with accessing, utilisation and provision of healthcare services in slums. We classified the diverse factors under seven broad categories. The findings can inform a holistic approach to improving health services in slums by tackling barriers at different levels, taking into account local context and geospatial features of individual slums.Systematic review registration numberhttps://osf.io/694t2.

ObjectivesTo systematically assess the sero-prevalence and associated factors of major infectious pathogens in China, where there are high incidence rates of certain infection-related cancers.DesignCross-sectional study.Setting10 (5 urban, 5 rural) geographically diverse areas in China.ParticipantsA subcohort of 2000 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank.Primary measuresSero-prevalence of 19 pathogens using a custom-designed multiplex serology panel and associated factors.ResultsOf the 19 pathogens investigated, the mean number of sero-positive pathogens was 9.4 (SD 1.7), with 24.4% of participants being sero-positive for >10 pathogens. For individual pathogens, the sero-prevalence varied, being for example, 0.05% for HIV, 6.4% for human papillomavirus (HPV)-16, 53.5% for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and 99.8% for Epstein-Barr virus . The sero-prevalence of human herpesviruses (HHV)-6, HHV-7 and HPV-16 was higher in women than men. Several pathogens showed a decreasing trend in sero-prevalence by birth cohort, including hepatitis B virus (HBV) (51.6% vs 38.7% in those born 1970), HPV-16 (11.4% vs 5.4%), HHV-2 (15.1% vs 8.1%), Chlamydia trachomatis (65.6% vs 28.8%) and Toxoplasma gondii (22.0% vs 9.0%). Across the 10 study areas, sero-prevalence varied twofold to fourfold for HBV (22.5% to 60.7%), HPV-16 (3.4% to 10.9%), H. pylori (16.2% to 71.1%) and C. trachomatis (32.5% to 66.5%). Participants with chronic liver diseases had >7-fold higher sero-positivity for HBV (OR=7.51; 95% CI 2.55 to 22.13).ConclusionsAmong Chinese adults, previous and current infections with certain pathogens were common and varied by area, sex and birth cohort. These infections may contribute to the burden of certain cancers and other non-communicable chronic diseases.

ObjectivesTen per cent of patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer undergo pancreaticoduodenectomy. There is limited previous research focusing on psychological well-being; unmet support needs impact negatively on quality of life. This paper reports the psychological impact of a pancreatic cancer diagnosis and subsequent pancreaticoduodenectomy, exploring how patients’ lives alter following surgery and how they seek support.DesignInductive qualitative study involving in-depth semistructured interviews with 20 participants who had undergone pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic or distal biliary duct cancer. Interviews were audiorecorded, transcribed and anonymised, and thematic analysis used principles of constant comparison.SettingSingle National Health Service Trust in Northwest England.ParticipantsPatients were eligible for inclusion if they had had pancreaticoduodenectomy for head of pancreas cancer, periampullary cancer or distal cholangiocarcinoma between 6 months and 6 years previously, and had completed adjuvant chemotherapy.ResultsAnalysis identified the following main themes: diagnosis and decision making around surgery; recovery from surgery and chemotherapy; burden of monitoring and ongoing symptoms; adjusting to ‘a new normal’; understanding around prognosis; support-seeking. Participants seized the chance to have surgery, often without seeming to absorb the risks or their prognosis. They perceived that they were unable to control their life trajectory and, although they valued close monitoring, experienced anxiety around their appointments. Participants expressed uncertainty about whether they would be able to return to their former activities. There were tensions in their comments about support-seeking, but most felt that emotional support should be offered proactively.ConclusionsPatients should be made aware of potential psychological sequelae, and that treatment completion may trigger the need for more support. Clinical nurse specialists (CNSs) were identified as key members of the team in proactively offering support; further training for CNSs should be encouraged. Understanding patients’ experience of living with cancer and the impact of treatment is crucial in enabling the development of improved support interventions.

BackgroundThe burden of uncontrolled hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is high and hypertension is known to coexist with other chronic diseases such as kidney disease, diabetes among others. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the burden of uncontrolled hypertension among patients with comorbidities in SSA.MethodsA comprehensive search was conducted on MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (Embase) and Web of Science to identify all relevant articles published between 1 January 2000 and 17 June 2021. We included studies that reported on the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension among people in SSA who report taking antihypertensive treatment and have another chronic condition. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain the pooled estimate of the prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension among patients with comorbid conditions while on treatment across studies in SSA.ResultsIn all, 20 articles were included for meta-analyses. Eleven articles were among diabetic patients, five articles were among patients with HIV, two were among patients with stroke while chronic kidney disease and atrial fibrillation had one article each. The pooled prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension among patients with comorbidities was 78.6% (95% CI 71.1% to 85.3%); I² 95.9%, varying from 73.1% in patients with stroke to 100.0% in patients with atrial fibrillation. Subgroup analysis showed differences in uncontrolled hypertension prevalence by various study-level characteristicsConclusionThis study suggests a high burden of uncontrolled hypertension in people with comorbidities in SSA. Strategies to improve the control of hypertension among people with comorbidities are needed.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019108218.

IntroductionWomen with gestational diabetes are at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes later in life. In at-risk general populations, Mediterranean-style diet helps prevent type 2 diabetes. But its effect on postnatal women with a history of gestational diabetes is not known. Prior to a full-scale trial on Mediterranean-style diet in the postnatal period to prevent type 2 diabetes, a feasibility study is required to assess the acceptability of the diet and evaluate the trial processes.Methods and analysisMEditerranean diet for pReventIon of type 2 diabeTes is a single-arm feasibility study (65 women) with qualitative evaluation of women who have recently given birth and had gestational diabetes. The intervention is a Mediterranean-style diet supplemented with nuts and olive oil, with dietary advice and an action plan. A dedicated Health Coach will interact with participants through an interactive lifestyle App. Women will follow the intervention from 6 to 13 weeks post partum until 1 year post partum. The primary outcomes are rates of recruitment, follow-up, adherence and attrition. The secondary outcomes are maternal dysglycaemia, cost and quality of life outcomes, and acceptability of the intervention to participants, and to healthcare professionals delivering the intervention. Feasibility outcomes will be reported using descriptive statistics.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval was obtained through the South Central—Berkshire Research Ethics Committee (19/SC/0064). Study findings will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals, as well as via newsletters made available to participants and members of Katie’s Team (a women’s health patient and public advisory group).Trial registration numberISRCTN40582975.

IntroductionMusculoskeletal (MSK) conditions constitute the highest burden of disease globally, with healthcare services often utilised inappropriately and overburdened. The aim of this trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of a novel clinical PAthway of CarE programme (PACE programme), where care is provided based on people’s risk of poor outcome.Methods and analysisMulticentre randomised controlled trial. 716 people with MSK conditions (low back pain, neck pain or knee osteoarthritis) will be recruited in primary care. They will be stratified for risk of a poor outcome (low risk/high risk) using the Short Form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (SF-ÖMSPQ) then randomised to usual care (n=358) or the PACE programme (n=358). Participants at low risk in the PACE programme will receive up to 3 sessions of guideline based care from their primary healthcare professional (HCP) supported by a custom designed website (mypainhub.com). Those at high risk will be referred to an allied health MSK specialist who will conduct a comprehensive patient-centred assessment then liaise with the primary HCP to determine further care. Primary outcome (SF 12-item PCS) and secondary outcomes (eg, pain self-efficacy, psychological health) will be collected at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. Cost-effectiveness will be measured as cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Health economic analysis will include direct and indirect costs. Analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. Primary and secondary outcomes will be analysed independently, using generalised linear models. Qualitative and mixed-methods studies embedded within the trial will evaluate patient experience, health professional practice and interprofessional collaboration.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval has been received from the following Human Research Ethics Committees: The University of Sydney (2018/926), The University of Queensland (2019000700/2018/926), University of Melbourne (1954239), Curtin University (HRE2019-0263) and Northern Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH03632). Dissemination of findings will occur via peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and social media.Trial registration numberACTRN12619000871145.

ObjectivesMultimorbidity – the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual-is an important public health challenge in ageing societies. The vast majority of multimorbidity research takes a cross-sectional approach, but longitudinal approaches to understanding multimorbidity are an emerging research area, being encouraged by multiple funders. To support development in this research area, the aim of this study is to scope the methodological approaches and substantive findings of studies which have investigated longitudinal multimorbidity trajectories.DesignWe conducted a systematic search for relevant studies in four online databases (Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase) using pre-defined search terms and inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search was complemented by searching reference lists of relevant papers. From the selected studies we systematically extracted data on study methodology and findings, and summarised them in a narrative synthesis.ResultsWe identified 34 studies investigating multimorbidity longitudinally, all published in the last decade, and predominantly in high-income countries from the Global North. Longitudinal approaches employed included constructing change variables, multilevel regression analysis (e.g. growth curve modelling), longitudinal group-based methodologies (e.g. latent class modelling), analysing disease transitions, and visualisation techniques. Commonly identified risk factors for multimorbidity onset and progression were older age, higher socio-economic and area-level deprivation, overweight, and poorer health behaviours.ConclusionThe nascent research area employs a diverse range of longitudinal approaches that characterize accumulation and disease combinations, and to a lesser extent disease sequencing and progression. Gaps include understanding the long-term, life course determinants of different multimorbidity trajectories, and doing so in across diverse populations, including those from low and middle-income countries. This can provide a detailed picture of morbidity development, with important implications from a clinical and intervention perspective.STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDYThis is the first systematic review to focus on studies that take a longitudinal, rather than cross-sectional, approach to multimorbidity.Systematic searches of online academic databases were performed using pre-defined search terms, as well as searching of reference lists, and this is reported using PRISMA guidelines.For selected papers, data was double extracted using standardised proformas to aid narrative synthesis.Due to the heterogeneity of the studies included, their weaknesses were described in the narrative synthesis, but we did not perform quality assessment using standardised tools.

ObjectiveAttendance at population-based breast cancer (mammographic) screening varies. This comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis assesses all identified patient-level factors associated with routine population breast screening attendance.DesignCINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, OVID, PsycINFO and Web of Science were searched for studies of any design, published January 1987–June 2019, and reporting attendance in relation to at least one patient-level factor.Data synthesisIndependent reviewers performed screening, data extraction and quality appraisal. OR and 95% CIs were calculated for attendance for each factor and random-effects meta-analysis was undertaken where possible.ResultsOf 19 776 studies, 335 were assessed at full text and 66 studies (n=22 150 922) were included. Risk of bias was generally low. In meta-analysis, increased attendance was associated with higher socioeconomic status (SES) (n=11 studies; OR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.75); higher income (n=5 studies; OR 1.96, 95% CI: 1.68 to 2.29); home ownership (n=3 studies; OR 2.16, 95% CI: 2.08 to 2.23); being non-immigrant (n=7 studies; OR 2.23, 95% CI: 2.00 to 2.48); being married/cohabiting (n=7 studies; OR 1.86, 95% CI: 1.58 to 2.19) and medium (vs low) level of education (n=6 studies; OR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.41). Women with previous false-positive results were less likely to reattend (n=6 studies; OR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.88). There were no differences by age group or by rural versus urban residence.ConclusionsAttendance was lower in women with lower SES, those who were immigrants, non-homeowners and those with previous false-positive results. Variations in service delivery, screening programmes and study populations may influence findings. Our findings are of univariable associations. Underlying causes of lower uptake such as practical, physical, psychological or financial barriers should be investigated.Trial registration numberCRD42016051597.

IntroductionHyperthyroidism is a common condition affecting up to 3% of the UK population. Treatment improves symptoms and reduces the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke that contribute to increased mortality. The most common symptom is weight loss, which is reversed during treatment. However, the weight regain may be excessive, contributing to increased risk of obesity. Current treatment options include antithyroid drugs, radioiodine and thyroidectomy. Whether there are differences in either weight change or the long-term cardiometabolic risk between the three treatments is unclear.Methods and analysisThe study will establish the natural history of weight change in hyperthyroidism, investigate the risk of obesity and risks of cardiometabolic conditions and death relative to the treatment. The data on patients diagnosed with hyperthyroidism between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2015 will come from Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics Death Registry. The weight changes will be modelled using a flexible joint modelling, accounting for mortality. Obesity prevalence in the general population will be sourced from Health Survey for England and compared with the post-treatment prevalence of obesity in patients with hyperthyroidism. The incidence and time-to-event of major adverse cardiovascular events, other cardiometabolic outcomes and mortality will be compared between the treatments using the inverse propensity weighting model. Incidence rate ratios of outcomes will be modelled with Poisson regression. Time to event will be analysed using Cox proportional hazards model. A competing risks approach will be adopted to estimate comparative incidences to allow for the impact of mortality.Ethics and disseminationThe study will bring new knowledge on the risk of developing obesity, cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality following treatment for hyperthyroidism to inform clinical practice and public health policies. The results will be disseminated via open-access peer-reviewed publications and directly to the patients and public groups (Independent Scientific Advisory Committee protocol approval #20_000185).

ObjectivesTo develop a programme theory for the intervention of patients receiving discharge letters.DesignWe used a realist evaluation approach and captured multiple perspectives of hospital discharge to refine our previously developed programme theory. General practitioner (GP), patient and hospital clinician views of a single discharge event in which they were all involved were collected using semi-structured interviews and surveys. These were then triangulated to match the corresponding discharge letter. Data were qualitatively synthesised and compared in meta-matrices before interrogation with realist logic of analysis to develop the programme theory that maps out how patients receiving discharge letters works in specific contexts.Setting14 GP practices and four hospital trusts in West Midlands, UK.Participants10 complete matched cases (GP, patient and hospital practitioner), and a further 26 cases in which a letter was matched with two out of the three participants.ResultsWe identified seven context mechanism outcome configurations not found through literature searching. These related to the broad concepts of: patient preference for receiving letters, patient comprehension of letters, patient-directed letters, patient harm and clinician views on patients receiving letters. ‘Patient choice’ was important to the success (or not) of the intervention. Other important contexts for positive effects included: letters written in plain English, lay explanations for jargon, verbal information also provided, no new information in letter and patient choice acknowledged. Three key findings were: patient understanding is perhaps greater than clinicians perceive, clinician attitudes are a barrier to patients receiving letters and that, negative outcomes more commonly manifested when patients had not received letters, rather than when they had.ConclusionsWe suggest how patients receiving discharge letters could be improved to enhance patient outcomes. Our programme theory has potential for use in different healthcare contexts and as a framework for policy development relating to patient discharge.

ObjectiveTo investigate the likelihood of having the seasonal influenza vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in individuals who were eligible to receive it.DesignWe conducted a cross-sectional online survey in July 2020. We included predictors informed by previous research, in the following categories: sociodemographic variables; uptake of influenza vaccine last winter and beliefs about vaccination.Participants570 participants (mean age: 53.07; 56.3% female, 87.0% white) who were eligible for the free seasonal influenza vaccination in the UK.Results59.7% of our sample indicated they were likely to have the seasonal influenza vaccination, 22.1% reported being unlikely to have the vaccination and 18.2% were unsure. We used logistic regression to investigate variables associated with intention to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine in the 2020–2021 season. A positive attitude to vaccination in general predicted intention to have the influenza vaccine in 2020–2021 (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.77, pConclusionsPrevious research suggests that increasing uptake of the influenza vaccination may help contain a COVID-19 outbreak, so steps need to be taken to convert intention into behaviour and to reach those individuals who reported being unlikely or unsure about having the vaccine.

ObjectiveThe ACROBAT pilot trial of early cryoprecipitate for severe postpartum haemorrhage used deferred consent procedures. Pretrial discussions with a patient and public involvement group found mixed views towards deferred consent. This study aimed to build an understanding of how the deferred consent procedures worked in practice, to inform plans for a full-scale trial.SettingQualitative interview study within a cluster-randomised pilot trial, involving four London maternity services.ParticipantsIndividual interviews were conducted postnatally with 10 women who had received blood transfusion for severe postpartum haemorrhage and had consented to the trial. We also interviewed four ‘recruiters’—two research midwives and two clinical trials practitioners who conducted trial recruitment.ResultsConsent procedures in the ACROBAT pilot trial were generally acceptable and the intervention was viewed as low risk, but most women did not remember much about the consent conversation. As per trial protocol, recruiters sought to consent women before hospital discharge, but this time pressure had to be balanced against the need to ensure women were not approached when distressed or very unwell. Extra efforts had to be made to communicate trial information to women due to the exhaustion of their recovery and competing demands for their attention. Participant information was further complicated by explanations about the cluster design and change in transfusion process, even though the consent sought was for access to medical data.ConclusionOur findings indicate that deferred consent procedures raise similar concerns as taking consent when emergency obstetric research is occurring—that is, the risk that participants may conflate research with clinical care, and that their ability to process trial information may be impacted by the stressful nature of recovery and newborn care. A future trial may support more meaningful informed consent by extending the window of consent discussion and ensuring trial information is minimal and easy to understand.Trial registration numberISRCTN12146519.

ObjectiveNursing homes’ residents and staff constitute the largest proportion of the fatalities associated with COVID-19 epidemic. Although there is a significant variation in COVID-19 outbreaks among the US nursing homes, we still do not know why such outbreaks are larger and more likely in some nursing homes than others. This research aims to understand why some nursing homes are more susceptible to larger COVID-19 outbreaks.DesignObservational study of all nursing homes in the state of California until 1 May 2020.SettingThe state of California.Participants713 long-term care facilities in the state of California that participate in public reporting of COVID-19 infections as of 1 May 2020 and their infections data could be matched with data on ratings and governance features of nursing homes provided by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).Main outcome measureThe number of reported COVID-19 infections among staff and residents.ResultsStudy sample included 713 nursing homes. The size of outbreaks among residents in for-profit nursing homes is 12.7 times larger than their non-profit counterparts (log count=2.54; 95% CI, 1.97 to 3.11; pConclusionsThe size of COVID-19 outbreaks in nursing homes is associated with their ratings and governance features. To prepare for the possible next waves of COVID-19 epidemic, policy makers should use these insights to identify the nursing homes who are more likely to experience large outbreaks.

IntroductionStudies addressing the development and/or validation of diagnostic and prognostic prediction models are abundant in most clinical domains. Systematic reviews have shown that the methodological and reporting quality of prediction model studies is suboptimal. Due to the increasing availability of larger, routinely collected and complex medical data, and the rising application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) techniques, the number of prediction model studies is expected to increase even further. Prediction models developed using AI or ML techniques are often labelled as a ‘black box’ and little is known about their methodological and reporting quality. Therefore, this comprehensive systematic review aims to evaluate the reporting quality, the methodological conduct, and the risk of bias of prediction model studies that applied ML techniques for model development and/or validation.Methods and analysisA search will be performed in PubMed to identify studies developing and/or validating prediction models using any ML methodology and across all medical fields. Studies will be included if they were published between January 2018 and December 2019, predict patient-related outcomes, use any study design or data source, and available in English. Screening of search results and data extraction from included articles will be performed by two independent reviewers. The primary outcomes of this systematic review are: (1) the adherence of ML-based prediction model studies to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD), and (2) the risk of bias in such studies as assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). A narrative synthesis will be conducted for all included studies. Findings will be stratified by study type, medical field and prevalent ML methods, and will inform necessary extensions or updates of TRIPOD and PROBAST to better address prediction model studies that used AI or ML techniques.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required for this study because only available published data will be analysed. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and scientific conferences.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO, CRD42019161764.

ObjectivesTo undertake a process evaluation of an adherence support intervention for people with cystic fibrosis (PWCF), to assess its feasibility and acceptability.SettingTwo UK cystic fibrosis (CF) units.ParticipantsFourteen adult PWCF; three professionals delivering adherence support (‘interventionists’); five multi-disciplinary CF team members.InterventionsNebuliser with data recording and transfer capability, linked to a software platform, and strategies to support adherence to nebulised treatments facilitated by interventionists over 5 months (± 1 month).Primary and secondary measuresFeasibility and acceptability of the intervention, assessed through semistructured interviews, questionnaires, fidelity assessments and click analytics.ResultsInterventionists were complimentary about the intervention and training. Key barriers to intervention feasibility and acceptability were identified. Interventionists had difficulty finding clinic space and time in normal working hours to conduct review visits. As a result, fewer than expected intervention visits were conducted and interviews indicated this may explain low adherence in some intervention arm participants. Adherence levels appeared to be >100% for some patients, due to inaccurate prescription data, particularly in patients with complex treatment regimens. Flatlines in adherence data at the start of the study were linked to device connectivity problems. Content and delivery quality fidelity were 100% and 60%–92%, respectively, indicating that interventionists needed to focus more on intervention ‘active ingredients’ during sessions.ConclusionsThe process evaluation led to 14 key changes to intervention procedures to overcome barriers to intervention success. With the identified changes, it is feasible and acceptable to support medication adherence with this intervention.Trial registration numberISRCTN13076797; Results.

ObjectivesTo investigate associations of job demands and resources with patient-related burnout among physicians.DesignMulticentre observational study.SettingFifty medical departments at 14 (academic and non-academic) hospitals in the Netherlands.ParticipantsFour hundred sixty-five physicians (71.6% response rate), comprising 385 (82.8%) medical specialists and 80 (17.2%) residents.Main outcome measuresJob demands (workload and bureaucratic demands), job resources (participation in decision making, development opportunities, leader’s inspiration, relationships with colleagues and patients)—measured with the validated Questionnaire of Experience and Evaluation of Work and Physician Worklife Survey—and patient-related burnout, measured using the validated Copenhagen Burnout Inventory.ResultsPatient-related burnout was positively associated with workload (b=0.36; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.48; pConclusionsPhysicians with high workloads and few development opportunities reported higher levels of patient-related burnout. Those with positive patient relationships were less likely to experience patient-related burnout, even in the presence of excessive bureaucracy. Therefore, positive physician–patient relationships may be supported to reduce the likelihood of physicians’ patient-related burnout. However, the specific support needed to effectively reduce patient-related burnout may vary per healthcare context and thus requires intensified research across healthcare systems and settings.

IntroductionLow-income and middle-income settings like India have large treatment gaps in mental healthcare. People with severe mental disorders face impediments to their clinical and functional recovery, and have large unmet needs. The infrastructure and standards of care are poor in colonial period psychiatric hospitals, with no clear pathways to discharge and successfully integrate recovered individuals into the community. Our aim is to study the impact of psychiatric hospital reform on individual patient outcomes in a psychiatric hospital in India.Methods and analysisStructured Individualised inTervention And Recovery (SITAR) is a two-arm pragmatic randomised controlled trial, focusing on patients aged 18–60 years with a hospital stay of 12–120 months and a primary diagnosis of psychosis. It tests the effectiveness of structural and process reform with and without an individually tailored recovery plan on patient outcomes of disability (primary outcome WHO Disability Assessment Scale), symptom severity, social and occupational functioning and quality of life. A computer-generated permuted block randomisation schedule will allocate recruited subjects to the two study arms. We aim to recruit 100 people into each trial arm. Baseline and outcome measures will be undertaken by trained researchers independent to the case managers providing the individual intervention. A health economic analysis will determine the costing of implementing the individually tailored recovery plan.Ethics and disseminationThe study will provide answers to important questions around the nature and process of reforms in institutional care that promote recovery while being cognizant of protecting human rights, and dignity. Ethical approval for SITAR was obtained from a registered ethics committee in India (Institutional Ethics Committee VikasAnvesh Foundation, VAF/2018-19/012 dated 6 December 2018) and the University of Warwick’s Biomedical and Scientific Research Ethics Committee (REGO-2019–2332, dated 21 March 2019), and registered on the Central Trial Registry of India (CTRI/2019/01/017267). Trial results will be published in accordance to CONSORT guidelines.

ObjectiveTo understand the beliefs that primary care practitioners (PCPs) and patients with overweight and obesity have about obesity and primary care weight management in Scotland.SettingSeven National Health Service (NHS) Scotland primary care centres.ParticipantsA total of 305 patients and 14 PCPs (12 general practitioners; two practice nurses) participated.Design and methodologyA cross-sectional mixed-methods study. PCPs and patients completed questionnaires assessing beliefs about obesity and primary care weight communication and management. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with PCPs to elaborate on questionnaire topics. Quantitative and qualitative data were synthesised to address study objectives.Results(1) Many patients with overweight and obesity did not accurately perceive their weight or risk of developing weight-related health issues; (2) PCPs and patients reported behavioural factors as the most important cause of obesity, and medical factors as the most important consequence; (3) PCPs perceive their role in weight management as awareness raising and signposting, not prevention or weight monitoring; (4) PCPs identify structural and patient-related factors as barriers to weight communication and management, but not PCP factors.ConclusionsIncongruent and/or inaccurate beliefs held by PCPs and patient may present barriers to effective weight discussion and management in primary care. There is a need to review, standardise and clarify primary care weight management processes in Scotland. Acknowledging a shared responsibility for obesity as a disease may improve outcomes for patients with overweight and obesity.

ObjectivesNosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been a significant cause of mortality in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COG-UK Consortium Hospital-Onset COVID-19 Infections (COG-UK HOCI) study aims to evaluate whether the use of rapid whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2, supported by a novel probabilistic reporting methodology, can inform infection prevention and control (IPC) practice within NHS hospital settings.DesignMulticentre, prospective, interventional, superiority study.Setting14 participating NHS hospitals over winter–spring 2020/2021 in the UK.ParticipantsEligible patients must be admitted to hospital with first-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive test result >48 hour from time of admission, where COVID-19 diagnosis not suspected on admission. The projected sample size is 2380 patients.InterventionThe intervention is the return of a sequence report, within 48 hours in one phase (rapid local lab processing) and within 5–10 days in a second phase (mimicking central lab), comparing the viral genome from an eligible study participant with others within and outside the hospital site.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcomes are incidence of Public Health England (PHE)/IPC-defined SARS-CoV-2 hospital-acquired infection during the baseline and two interventional phases, and proportion of hospital-onset cases with genomic evidence of transmission linkage following implementation of the intervention where such linkage was not suspected by initial IPC investigation. Secondary outcomes include incidence of hospital outbreaks, with and without sequencing data; actual and desirable changes to IPC actions; periods of healthcare worker (HCW) absence. Health economic analysis will be conducted to determine cost benefit of the intervention. A process evaluation using qualitative interviews with HCWs will be conducted alongside the study.Trial registration numberISRCTN50212645. Pre-results stage. This manuscript is based on protocol V.6.0. 2 September 2021.

ObjectivesTo explore patient and stakeholder perspectives on primary respiratory care for people with severe mental illness (SMI) and comorbid obstructive airways disease (OAD).DesignQualitative, semistructured qualitative interviews were undertaken with a purposive sample of people with a diagnosis of SMI (bipolar illness, schizophrenia, affective disorder with psychosis) and comorbid asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Transcribed data were analysed using an interpretive phenomenological approach. Study results were discussed with stakeholders.SettingEight UK general practices.Participants16 people aged 45–75 years, with SMI and comorbid asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, were interviewed. Twenty-one people, four with lived experience of SMI and seventeen health/social care/third sector practitioners, participated in discussion groups at a stakeholder event.ResultsParticipants described disability and isolation arising from the interplay of SMI and OAD symptoms. Social support determined ease of access to primary care. Self-management of respiratory health was not person-centred as practitioners failed to consider individual needs and health literacy. Participants perceived smoking cessation impossible without tailored support. Less than half of the practices facilitated personalised access to timely primary care and continuity. Overall, there was a reliance on urgent care if service adaptations and social support were lacking. The stakeholder group expressed concern about gaps in care, the short-term funding of community organisations and fear of loss of benefits. Potential solutions focused on supported navigation of care pathways, relational continuity, individual and community asset building and the evolving social prescriber role.ConclusionThis study suggests that despite UK guidelines and incentives to optimise physical healthcare, primary care fails to consistently deliver integrated biopsychosocial care for patients with SMI and OAD. Collaborative, personalised care that builds social capital and tailors support for self-management is needed, alongside service-level interventions to enhance access to healthcare for patients with comorbid SMI and OAD.

ObjectivesLittle is known about the perspectives of staff working in prisons where e-cigarettes are permitted. Scotland now permits people in custody (PiC), but not staff/visitors to use e-cigarettes, following implementation of smoke-free prisons policy in 2018. Previous studies, conducted before and immediately after the introduction of e-cigarettes in Scottish prisons, have evidenced stakeholder support for their use by PiC. This study focuses on key challenges associated with e-cigarette use in prisons, using data collected from prison staff once e-cigarettes had been allowed in a smoke-free environment for 6–9 months.SettingFive prisons in Scotland.ParticipantsSixteen qualitative interviews were conducted with prison staff from five prisons varying by population (sex, age and sentence length). Data were managed and analysed using the framework approach.ResultsWhile these staff confirmed strong support for the smoke-free prison policy and reported some benefits of replacing tobacco with e-cigarettes, they also spoke of the challenges e-cigarettes pose. These included: workplace e-cigarette vapour exposures; perceptions that e-cigarettes provide a new, effective way for some PiC to take illegal drugs, particularly new psychoactive substances; organisational challenges relating to the value attached to e-cigarettes in prisons; and implications for long-term nicotine use and tobacco cessation. Staff anticipated difficulties in tightening restrictions on e-cigarette use by PiC given its scale and significance among this population.ConclusionsMaximising the benefits of e-cigarette use by PiC is likely to require multiple measures to support effective and safe use and e-cigarette reduction/cessation where desired. This includes monitoring any misuse of e-cigarettes, and provision of guidance and support on appropriate e-cigarette use and how to limit or quit use if desired. Findings are relevant to jurisdictions considering or planning changes in prison smoking or vaping policies.

ObjectivesThis paper reports findings exploring junior doctors’ experiences of working during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.DesignQualitative study using in-depth interviews with 15 junior doctors. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, anonymised and imported into NVivo V.12 to facilitate data management. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.SettingNational Health Service (NHS) England.ParticipantsA purposive sample of 12 female and 3 male junior doctors who indicated severe depression and/or anxiety on the DASS-21 questionnaire or high suicidality on Paykel’s measure were recruited. These doctors self-identified as having lived experience of distress due to their working conditions.ResultsWe report three major themes. First, the challenges of working during the COVID-19 pandemic, which were both personal and organisational. Personal challenges were characterised by helplessness and included the trauma of seeing many patients dying, fears about safety and being powerless to switch off. Work-related challenges revolved around change and uncertainty and included increasing workloads, decreasing staff numbers and negative impacts on relationships with colleagues and patients. The second theme was strategies for coping with the impact of COVID-19 on work, which were also both personal and organisational. Personal coping strategies, which appeared limited in their usefulness, were problem and emotion focused. Several participants appeared to have moved from coping towards learnt helplessness. Some organisations reacted to COVID-19 collaboratively and flexibly. Third, participants reported a positive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on working practices, which included simplified new ways of working—such as consistent teams and longer rotations—as well as increased camaraderie and support.ConclusionsThe trauma that junior doctors experienced while working during COVID-19 led to powerlessness and a reduction in the benefit of individual coping strategies. This may have resulted in feelings of resignation. We recommend that, postpandemic, junior doctors are assigned to consistent teams and offered ongoing support.

IntroductionEmergency departments (EDs) are complex systems that have constant fluctuations in demand, creating mismatches with planned capacity. Despite the complexity of ED operations, quality and safety improvement are often approached in a reactive, linear and reductionist manner. There is increasing interest in adopting Resilient Healthcare (RHC) techniques based on complex systems thinking as a method for quality improvement and research in EDs. However, the evidence for this approach is still developing and it is not clear what techniques have been used so far and which are most effective. This scoping review will be conducted between March 2022 until May 2022. It seeks to examine the international literature for available reports that have adopted RHC theory to study ED operations and identify approaches used and proposed benefits.Methods and analysisThe methodology for scoping reviews outlined by Arksey and O’Malley (2005) will be followed, acknowledging refinements made to the scoping review process by Levacet al(2010). The methodology consists of five steps: (1) identifying the research question; (2) identifying the relevant literature; (3) study selection; (4) charting the data; and (5) collating, summarising and reporting the results. A two-stage approach will be undertaken to synthesise and report results: (1) numerical analysis of the nature and distribution of studies (the overall number of studies, country of origin, the most studied core function of ED, type of research design); and (2) a thematic mapping of the literature.Ethics and disseminationScoping review methodology synthesises published data and, therefore, does not require ethical approval. An article formatted in line with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses forScoping Reviews reporting guidance will be submitted for publication to a scientific journal. Findings will also be presented at relevant advanced practice conferences and disseminated within clinical and academic groups.

IntroductionThe Community Ageing Research 75+ (CARE75+) study is a longitudinal cohort study collecting extensive health and social data, with a focus on frailty, independence and quality of life in older age. CARE75+ was the first international experimental frailty research cohort designed using trial within cohorts (TwiCs) methodology, aligning epidemiological research with clinical trial evaluation of interventions to improve the health and well-being of older people. CARE75+ REMOTE is an extension of CARE75+ using a remote model that does not require face-to-face interactions for data collection in the current circumstances of a global pandemic and will provide an efficient, sustainable data collection model.Methods and analysisProspective cohort study using TwiCs. One thousand community-dwelling older people (≥75 years) will be recruited from UK general practices by telephone. Exclusions include: nursing home/care home residents; those with an estimated life expectancy of 3 months or less; and people receiving palliative care.Data collectionAssessments will be conducted by telephone, web-submission or postal questionnaire: baseline, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, 30 months and 36 months. Measures include activities of daily living, mood, health-related quality of life, comorbidities, medications, frailty, informal care, healthcare and social care service use. Consent will be sought for data linkage and invitations to additional studies (sub-studies).Ethics and disseminationCARE75+ was approved by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee Yorkshire and the Humber—Bradford Leeds 10 October 2014 (14/YH/1120). CARE75+ REMOTE (amendment 13) was approved on the 18th November 2020. Consent is sought if an individual is willing to participate and has capacity to provide informed consent. Consultee assent is sought if an individual lacks capacity. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed scientific journals and conferences. Results will be summarised and disseminated to study participants via newsletters, local engagement events and on a bespoke website.Trial registration numberISRCTN16588124.

Funder: Wellcome Trust, INTRODUCTION: Prevention of fragility fractures, a source of significant economic and personal burden, is hindered by poor uptake of fracture prevention medicines. Enhancing communication of scientific evidence and elicitation of patient medication-related beliefs has the potential to increase patient commitment to treatment. The Improving uptake of Fracture Prevention drug treatments (iFraP) programme aims to develop and evaluate a theoretically informed, complex intervention consisting of a computerised web-based decision support tool, training package and information resources, to facilitate informed decision-making about fracture prevention treatment, with a long-term aim of improving informed treatment adherence. This protocol focuses on the iFraP Development (iFraP-D) work. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The approach to iFraP-D is informed by the Medical Research Council complex intervention development and evaluation framework and the three-step implementation of change model. The context for the study is UK fracture liaison services (FLS), which enact secondary fracture prevention. An evidence synthesis of clinical guidelines and Delphi exercise will be conducted to identify content for the intervention. Focus groups with patients, FLS clinicians and general practitioners and a usual care survey will facilitate understanding of current practice, and investigate barriers and facilitators to change. Design of the iFraP intervention will be informed by decision aid development standards and theories of implementation, behaviour change, acceptability and medicines adherence. The principles of co-design will underpin all elements of the study through a dedicated iFraP community of practice including key stakeholders and patient advisory groups. In-practice testing of the prototype intervention will inform revisions ready for further testing in a subsequent pilot and feasibility randomised trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from North West-Greater Manchester West Research Ethics Committee (19/NW/0559). Dissemination and knowledge mobilisation will be facilitated through national bodies and networks, publications and presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: researchregistry5041.

IntroductionWorldwide, 10%–20% of children and adolescents experience mental health conditions. However, most such disorders remain undiagnosed until adolescence or adulthood. Little is known about the factors that influence mental health in children and adolescents, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMIC), where environmental threats, such as poverty and war, may affect optimal neurodevelopment. Cohort studies provide important information on risks and resilience across the life course by enabling tracking of the effects of early life environment on health during childhood and beyond. Large birth cohort studies, including twin cohorts that can be aetiologically informative, have been conducted within high-income countries but are not generalisable to LMIC. There are limited longitudinal birth cohort studies in LMIC.MethodsWe sought to enhance the volume of impactful research in Sri Lanka by establishing a Centre of Excellence for cohort studies. The aim is to establish a register of infant, child and adolescent twins, including mothers pregnant with twins, starting in the districts of Colombo (Western Province) and Vavuniya (Northern Province). We will gain consent from twins or parents for future research projects. This register will provide the platform to investigate the aetiology of mental illness and the impact of challenges to early brain development on future mental health. Using this register, we will be able to conduct research that will (1) expand existing research capacity on child and adolescent mental health and twin methods; (2) further consolidate existing partnerships and (3) establish new collaborations. The initiative is underpinned by three pillars: high-quality research, ethics, and patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE).Ethics and disseminationEthical approval for this study was obtained from the Ethics Review Committee of Sri Lanka Medical Association and Keele University’s Ethical Review Panel. In addition to journal publications, a range of PPIE activities have been conducted.

ObjectivesTreatment of open fractures is complex and patients may require muscle and skin grafts. The aim of this study was to gain a greater understanding of patient experience of recovery from open fracture of the lower limb 2–4 years postinjury.DesignA phenomenological approach was used to guide the design of the study. Interviews took place between October 2016 and April 2017 in the participants’ own homes or via telephone.SettingEngland, UK.ParticipantsA purposive sample of 25 patients were interviewed with an age range of 26–80 years (median 51), 19 were male and six female, and time since injury was 24–49 months (median 35 months).ResultsThe findings identified a focus on struggling to recover as participants created a new way of living, balancing moving forward with accepting how they are, while being uncertain of the future and experiencing cycles of progress and setbacks. This was expressed through three themes: (i) ‘being disempowered’ with the emotional impact of dependency and uncertainty, (ii) ‘being changed’ and living with being fragile and being unable to move freely and (iii) ‘being myself’ with a loss of self, feeling and looking different, alongside recreation of self in which they integrated the past, present and future to find meaningful ways of being themselves.ConclusionThis study identified the long-term disruption caused by serious injury, the hidden work of integration that is required in order to move forward and maximise potential for recovery. Supportive strategies that help people to self-manage their everyday emotional and physical experience of recovery from injury are required. Research should focus on developing and testing effective interventions that provide support and self-management within a holistic rehabilitation plan.Trial registration numberCurrent Controlled TrialsISRCTN33756652; Post-results.

ObjectiveTo develop a tool for use by non-clinical fieldworkers for assessing the quality of care delivered by community health workers providing comprehensive care in households in low- and middle-income countries.DesignWe determined the content of the tool using multiple sources of information, including interactions with district managers, national training manuals and an exploratory study that included observations of 70 community health workers undertaking 518 household visits collected as part of a wider study. We also reviewed relevant literature, selecting relevant domains and quality markers. To refine the tool and manual we worked with the fieldworkers who had undertaken the observations. We constructed two scores summarising key aspects of care: (1) delivering messages and actions during household visit, and (2) communicating with the household; we also collected contextual data. The fieldworkers used the tool with community health workers in a different area to test feasibility.SettingSouth Africa, where community health workers have been brought into the public health system to address the shortage of healthcare workers and limited access to healthcare. It was embedded in an intervention study to improve quality of community health worker supervision.Primary and secondary outcomesOur primary outcome was the completion of a tool and user manual.ResultsThe tool consists of four sections, completed at different stages during community health worker household visits: before setting out, at entry to a household, during the household visit and after leaving the household. Following tool refinement, we found no problems on field-testing the tool.ConclusionsWe have developed a tool for assessing quality of care delivered by community health workers at home visits, often an unobserved part of their role. The tool was developed for evaluating an intervention but could also be used to support training and management of community health workers.

ObjectivesTo explore service-user and provider experience of the acceptability and value of the Let’s Prevent Diabetes programme, a pragmatic 6-hour behavioural intervention using structured group education, introduced into primary care practice.DesignQualitative interview-based study with thematic analysis.SettingPrimary care and community.ParticipantsPurposeful sample of 32 participants, including 22 people at high risk of diabetes who either attended, defaulted from or declined the intervention; and 10 stakeholder professionals involved in implementation.ResultsParticipants had low prior awareness of their elevated risk and were often surprised to be offered intervention. Attenders were commonly older, white, retired and motivated to promote their health; who found their session helpful, particularly for social interaction, raising dietary awareness, and convenience of community location. However attenders highlighted lack of depth, repetition within and length of session, difficulty meeting culturally diverse needs and no follow-up as negative features. Those who defaulted from, or who declined the intervention were notably apprehensive, uncertain or unconvinced about whether they were at risk of diabetes; sought more specific information about the intervention, and were deterred by its group nature and day-long duration, with competing work or family commitments. Local providers recognised inadequate communication of diabetes risk to patients. They highlighted significant challenges for implementation, including resource constraints, and facilitation at individual general practice or locality level.ConclusionsThis pragmatic diabetes prevention intervention was acceptable in practice, particularly for older, white, retired and health-motivated people. However, pre-intervention information and communication of diabetes risk should be improved to increase engagement and reduce potential fear or uncertainty, with closer integration of services, and more appropriate care pathways, to facilitate uptake and follow-up. Further development of this, or other interventions, is needed to enable wider, and more socially diverse, engagement of people at risk. Balancing a locality and individual practice approach, and how this is resourced are considerations for long-term sustainability.

ObjectivesWe provide new estimates on size, composition and distribution of human resource for health in India and compare with the health workers population ratio as recommended by the WHO. We also estimate size of non-health workers engaged in health sector and the size of technically qualified health professionals who are not a part of the health workforce.DesignNationally representative cross-section household survey and review of published documents by the Central Bureau of Health Intelligence.SettingNational.ParticipantsHead of household/key informant in a sample of 101 724 households.InterventionsNot applicable.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome was the number and density of health workers,and the secondary outcome was the percentage of health workers who are technically qualified and the percentage of individuals technically qualified and not in workforce.ResultsThe total size of health workforce estimated from the National Sample Survey (NSS) data is 3.8 million as of January 2016, which is about 1.2 million less than the total number of health professionals registered with different councils and associations. The density of doctors and nurses and midwives per 10 000 population is 20.6 according to the NSS and 26.7 based on the registry data. Health workforce density in rural India and states in eastern India is lower than the WHO minimum threshold of 22.8 per 10 000 population. More than 80% of doctors and 70% of nurses and midwives are employed in the private sector. Approximately 25% of the currently working health professionals do not have the required qualifications as laid down by professional councils, while 20% of adequately qualified doctors are not in the current workforce.ConclusionsDistribution and qualification of health professionals are serious problems in India when compared with the overall size of the health workers. Policy should focus on enhancing the quality of health workers and mainstreaming professionally qualified persons into the health workforce.

This work was supported by Diabetes Action Canada, which is funded, in part, through a Canadian Institutes of Health Research chronic disease network grant under the Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research (Funding Reference number: SCA 145101). Digital data generated in the course of clinical care are increasingly being leveraged for a wide range of secondary purposes. Researchers need to develop governance policies that can assure the public that their information is being used responsibly. Our aim was to develop a generalisable model for governance of research emanating from health data repositories that will invoke the trust of the patients and the healthcare professionals whose data are being accessed for health research. We developed our governance principles and processes through literature review and iterative consultation with key actors in the research network including: a data governance working group, the lead investigators and patient advisors. We then recruited persons to participate in the governing and advisory bodies. Our governance process is informed by eight principles: (1) transparency; (2) accountability; (3) follow rule of law; (4) integrity; (5) participation and inclusiveness; (6) impartiality and independence; (7) effectiveness, efficiency and responsiveness and (8) reflexivity and continuous quality improvement. We describe the rationale for these principles, as well as their connections to the subsequent policies and procedures we developed. We then describe the function of the Research Governing Committee, the majority of whom are either persons living with diabetes or physicians whose data are being used, and the patient and data provider advisory groups with whom they consult and communicate. In conclusion, we have developed a values-based information governance framework and process for Diabetes Action Canada that adds value over-and-above existing scientific and ethics review processes by adding a strong patient perspective and contextual integrity. This model is adaptable to other secure data repositories. Publisher PDF

ObjectiveTo explore the impact of the death of a patient in the haemodialysis unit on fellow patients.MethodsWe interviewed patients on dialysis in a tertiary dialysis centre using semistructured interviews. We purposively sampled patients who had experienced the death of a fellow patient. After interviews were transcribed, they were thematically analysed by independent members of the research team using inductive analysis. Input from the team during analysis ensured the rigour and quality of the findings.Results10 participants completed the interviews (6 females and 4 males with an age range of 42–88 years). The four core themes that emerged from the interviews included: (1) patients’ relationship to haemodialysis, (2) how patients define the haemodialysis community, (3) patients’ views on death and bereavement and (4) patients’ expectations around death in the dialysis community. Patients noticed avoidance behaviour by staff in relation to discussing death in the unit and would prefer a culture of open acknowledgement.ConclusionStaff acknowledgement of death is of central importance to patients on haemodialysis who feel that the staff are part of their community. This should guide the development of appropriate bereavement support services and a framework that promotes the provision of guidance for staff and patients in this unique clinical setting. However, the authors acknowledge the homogenous sample recruited in a single setting may limit the transferability of the study. Further work is needed to understand diverse patient and nurse experiences and perceptions when sharing the knowledge of a patient’s death and how they react to loss.

IntroductionIndividuals with schizophrenia are at a high risk of physical health comorbidities and premature mortality. Cardiovascular and metabolic causes are an important contributor. There are gaps in monitoring, documenting and managing these physical health comorbidities. Because of their condition, patients themselves may not be aware of these comorbidities and may not be able to follow a lifestyle that prevents and manages the complications. In many low-income and middle-income countries including Pakistan, the bulk of the burden of care for those struggling with schizophrenia falls on the families.ObjectivesTo determine the rate of self-reported physical health disorders and risk factors, like body mass index (BMI) and smoking, associated with cardiovascular and metabolic disorders in cases of schizophrenia compared with a group of mentally healthy controls.DesignA case-controlled, cross-sectional multicentre study of patients with schizophrenia in Pakistan.SettingsMultiple data collection sites across the country for patients, that is, public and private psychiatric OPDs (out patient departments), specialised psychiatric care facilities, and psychiatric wards of teaching and district level hospitals. Healthy controls were enrolled from the community.ParticipantsWe report a total of 6838 participants’ data with (N 3411 (49.9%)) cases of schizophrenia compared with a group of healthy controls (N 3427 (50.1%)).ResultsBMI (OR 0.98 (CI 0.97 to 0.99), p=0.0025), and the rate of smoking is higher in patients with schizophrenia than in controls. Problems with vision (OR 0.13 (0.08 to 0.2), joint pain (OR 0.18 (0.07 to 0.44)) and high cholesterol (OR 0.13 (0.05 to 0.35)) have higher reported prevalence in controls. The cases describe more physical health disorders in the category ‘other’ (OR 4.65 (3.01 to 7.18)). This captures residual disorders not listed in the questionnaire.ConclusionsParticipants with schizophrenia in comparison with controls report more disorders. The access in the ‘other’ category may be a reflection of undiagnosed disorders.

IntroductionShoulder pain is common and the prognosis is often unfavourable. Dutch guidelines on the treatment of shoulder pain in primary care recommend a corticosteroid injection or a referral to exercise therapy, if initial pain management fails and pain persists. However, evidence of the effectiveness of a corticosteroid injection compared with exercise therapy, especially in the long term, is limited. This trial will assess the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a corticosteroid injection compared with physiotherapist-led exercise therapy over 12 months follow-up in patients with shoulder pain in primary care.Methods and analysisThe SIX Study is a multicentre, pragmatic randomised clinical trial in primary care. A total of 213 patients with shoulder pain, aged ≥18 years presenting in general practice will be included. Patients will be randomised (1:1) into two groups: a corticosteroid injection or 12 sessions of physiotherapist-led exercise therapy. The effect of the allocated treatment will be assessed through questionnaires at 6 weeks and after 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The primary outcome is patient’s reported shoulder pain-intensity and function, measured with the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index, over 12 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes include cost effectiveness, pain-intensity, function, health-related quality of life, sleep quality, patient’s global perceived effect, work absence, healthcare utilisation and adverse events. Between group differences will be evaluated using a repeated measurements analysis with linear effects models. A cost-utility analysis will be performed to assess the cost effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years from a medical and societal perspective.Ethics and disseminationThis study was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam (MEC 2020-0300). All participants will give written informed consent prior to data collection. The results from this study will be disseminated in international journals and implemented in the primary care guidelines on shoulder pain.Trial registration numberDutch Trial Registry (NL8854).

ObjectiveTo estimate the test accuracy of faecal calprotectin (FC) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in the primary care setting using routine electronic health records.DesignRetrospective cohort test accuracy study.SettingUK primary care.Participants5970 patients (≥18 years) without a previous IBD diagnosis and with a first FC test between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2016. We excluded multiple tests and tests without numeric results in units of µg/g.InterventionFC testing for the diagnosis of IBD. Disease status was confirmed by a recorded diagnostic code and/or a drug code of an IBD-specific medication at three time points after the FC test date.Main outcome measuresSensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the differential of IBD versus non-IBD and IBD versus irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) at the 50 and 100 µg/g thresholds.Results5970 patients met the inclusion criteria and had at least 6 months of follow-up data after FC testing. 1897 had an IBS diagnosis, 208 had an IBD diagnosis, 31 had a colorectal cancer diagnosis, 80 had more than one diagnosis and 3754 had no subsequent diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 92.9% (88.6% to 95.6%), 61.5% (60.2% to 62.7%), 8.1% (7.1% to 9.2%) and 99.6% (99.3% to 99.7%), respectively, at the threshold of 50 µg/g. Raising the threshold to 100 µg/g missed less than 7% additional IBD cases. Longer follow-up had no effect on test accuracy. Overall, uncertainty was greater for specificity than sensitivity. General practitioners’ (GPs’) referral decisions did not follow the anticipated clinical pathways in national guidance.ConclusionsGPs can be confident in excluding IBD on the basis of a negative FC test in a population with low pretest risk but should interpret a positive test with caution. The applicability of national guidance to general practice needs to be improved.

ObjectiveIn this study, we describe the pattern of bed occupancy across England during the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignDescriptive survey.SettingAll non-specialist secondary care providers in England from 27 March27to 5 June 2020.ParticipantsAcute (non-specialist) trusts with a type 1 (ie, 24 hours/day, consultant-led) accident and emergency department (n=125), Nightingale (field) hospitals (n=7) and independent sector secondary care providers (n=195).Main outcome measuresTwo thresholds for ‘safe occupancy’ were used: 85% as per the Royal College of Emergency Medicine and 92% as per NHS Improvement.ResultsAt peak availability, there were 2711 additional beds compatible with mechanical ventilation across England, reflecting a 53% increase in capacity, and occupancy never exceeded 62%. A consequence of the repurposing of beds meant that at the trough there were 8.7% (8508) fewer general and acute beds across England, but occupancy never exceeded 72%. The closest to full occupancy of general and acute bed (surge) capacity that any trust in England reached was 99.8% . For beds compatible with mechanical ventilation there were 326 trust-days (3.7%) spent above 85% of surge capacity and 154 trust-days (1.8%) spent above 92%. 23 trusts spent a cumulative 81 days at 100% saturation of their surge ventilator bed capacity (median number of days per trust=1, range: 1–17). However, only three sustainability and transformation partnerships (aggregates of geographically co-located trusts) reached 100% saturation of their mechanical ventilation beds.ConclusionsThroughout the first wave of the pandemic, an adequate supply of all bed types existed at a national level. However, due to an unequal distribution of bed utilisation, many trusts spent a significant period operating above ‘safe-occupancy’ thresholds despite substantial capacity in geographically co-located trusts, a key operational issue to address in preparing for future waves.

PurposeThe ‘Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle’ (OPAL) Cohort is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study of adults, aged 65 years and older, living in the community which is investigating the determinants of health in later life. Our focus was on musculoskeletal pain and mobility, but the cohort is designed with flexibility to include new elements over time. This paper describes the study design, data collection and baseline characteristics of participants. We also compared the OPAL baseline characteristics with nationally representative data sources.ParticipantsWe randomly selected eligible participants from two stratified age bands (65–74 and 75 and over years). In total, 5409 individuals (42.1% of eligible participants) from 35 general practices in England agreed to participate between 2016 and 2018. The majority of participants (n=5367) also consented for research team to access their UK National Health Service (NHS) Digital and primary healthcare records.Findings to dateMean participant age was 74.9 years (range 65–100); 51.5% (n=2784/5409) were women. 94.9% of participants were white, and 28.8% lived alone. Over 83.0% reported pain in at least one body area in the previous 6 weeks. Musculoskeletal symptoms were more prevalent in women (86.4%). One-third of participants reported having one or more falls in the last year. Most participants were confident in their ability to walk outside. The characteristics of OPAL Cohort participants were broadly similar to the general population of the same age.Future plansPostal follow-up of the cohort is being undertaken at annual intervals, with data collection ongoing. Linkage to NHS hospital admission data is planned. This English prospective cohort offers a large and rich resource for research on the longitudinal associations between demographic, clinical, and social factors and health trajectories and outcomes in community-dwelling older people.

IntroductionSelf-management and remaining physically active are first-line recommendations for the care of patients with low back pain (LBP). With a lifetime prevalence of up to 85%, novel approaches to support behavioural self-management are needed. Internet interventions may provide accessible support for self-management of LBP in primary care. The aim of this randomised controlled trial is to determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the ‘SupportBack’ internet intervention, with or without physiotherapist telephone support in reducing LBP-related disability in primary care patients.Methods and analysisA three-parallel arm, multicentre randomised controlled trial will compare three arms: (1) usual primary care for LBP; (2) usual primary care for LBP and an internet intervention; (3) usual primary care for LBP and an internet intervention with additional physiotherapist telephone support. Patients with current LBP and no indicators of serious spinal pathology are identified and invited via general practice list searches and mailouts or opportunistic recruitment following LBP consultations. Participants undergo a secondary screen for possible serious spinal pathology and are then asked to complete baseline measures online after which they are randomised to an intervention arm. Follow-ups occur at 6 weeks, 3, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is physical function (using the Roland and Morris Disability Questionnaire) over 12 months (repeated measures design). Secondary outcomes include pain intensity, troublesome days in pain over the last month, pain self-efficacy, catastrophising, kinesophobia, health-related quality of life and cost-related measures for a full health economic analysis. A full mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted.Ethics and disseminationThis trial has been approved by a National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (REC Ref: 18/SC/0388). Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conferences, communication with practices and patient groups. Patient representatives will support the implementation of our full dissemination strategy.Trial registration numberISRCTN14736486.

IntroductionSome surgical site infections (SSI) could be prevented by following adequate infection prevention and control (IPC) measures. Poor compliance with IPC measures often occurs due to knowledge gaps and insufficient education of healthcare professionals. The education and training of SSI preventive measures does not usually take place in the operating room (OR), due to safety, and organisational and logistic issues. The proposed study aims to compare virtual reality (VR) as a tool for medical students to learn the SSI prevention measures and adequate behaviours (eg, limit movements…) in the OR, to conventional teaching.Methods and analysisThis protocol describes a randomised controlled multicentre trial comparing an educational intervention based on VR simulation to routine education. This multicentre study will be performed in three universities: Grenoble Alpes University (France), Imperial College London (UK) and University of Heidelberg (Germany). Third-year medical students of each university will be randomised in two groups. The students randomised in the intervention group will follow VR teaching. The students randomised in the control group will follow a conventional education programme. Primary outcome will be the difference between scores obtained at the IPC exam at the end of the year between the two groups. The written exam will be the same in the three countries. Secondary outcomes will be satisfaction and students’ progression for the VR group. The data will be analysed with intention-to-treat and per protocol.Ethics and disseminationThis study has been approved by the Medical Education Ethics Committee of the London Imperial College (MEEC1920-172), by the Ethical Committee for the Research of Grenoble Alpes University (CER Grenoble Alpes-Avis-2019-099-24-2) and by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of Heidelberg University (S-765/2019). Results will be published in peer-reviewed medical journals, communicated to participants, general public and all relevant stakeholders.

Objectives: To ascertain the feasibility and acceptability of the HOW R U? programme, a novel volunteer-peer postdischarge support programme for older patients after discharge from the emergency department (ED).\ud \ud Design: A multicentre prospective mixed-methods feasibility study.\ud \ud Setting: Two tertiary hospital EDs in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia.\ud \ud Participants: A convenience sample of 39 discharged ED patients aged 70 years or over, with symptoms of social isolation, loneliness and/or depression.\ud \ud Intervention: The HOW R U? intervention comprised weekly social support telephone calls delivered by volunteer peers for 3 months following ED discharge.\ud \ud Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcomes were feasibility of study processes, intervention acceptability to participants and retention in the programme. Secondary outcomes were changes in loneliness level (UCLA-3—3-item Loneliness Scale), mood (5-item Geriatric Depression Scale) and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L and EQ-VAS) postintervention.\ud \ud Results: Recruitment was feasible, with 30% of eligible patients successfully recruited. Seventeen volunteer peers provided telephone support to patient participants, in addition to their usual hospital volunteer role. HOW R U? was well received, with 87% retention in the patient group, and no attrition in the volunteer group.\ud \ud The median age of patients was 84 years, 64% were female, and 82% lived alone. Sixty-eight per cent of patients experienced reductions in depressive symptoms, and 53% experiencing reduced feelings of loneliness, and these differences were statistically significant Patient feedback was positive and volunteers reported great satisfaction with their new role.\ud \ud Conclusion: HOW R U? was feasible in terms of recruitment and retention and was acceptable to both patients and volunteers. The overall results support the potential for further research in this area and provide data to support the design of a definitive trial to confirm the observed effects.\ud \ud Trial registration number: ANZCTRN12615000715572; Results.

INTRODUCTION: People with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) frequently report reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL), the impact one's health has on physical, emotional and social well-being. There are likely numerous causes for poor HRQoL, but people with RA have identified sleep disturbances as a key contributor to their well-being. This study will identify sleep/wake rhythm-associated parameters that predict HRQoL in patients with RA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective cohort study will recruit 350 people with RA, aged 18 years or older. Following completion of a paper-based baseline questionnaire, participants will record data on 10 symptoms including pain, fatigue and mood two times a day for 30 days using a study-specific mobile application (app). A triaxial accelerometer will continuously record daytime activity and estimate evening sleep parameters over the 30 days. Every 10 days following study initiation, participants will complete a questionnaire that measures disease specific (Arthritis Impact Measurement Scale 2-Short Form (AIMS2-SF)) and generic (WHOQOL-BREF) quality of life. A final questionnaire will be completed at 60 days after entering the study. The primary outcomes are the AIMS2-SF and WHOQOL-BREF. Structural equation modelling and latent trajectory models will be used to examine the relationship between sleep/wake rhythm-associated parameters and HRQoL, over time. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Results from this study will be disseminated at regional and international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and Patient and Public Engagement events, as appropriate.

ObjectivesFew studies have estimated the effect of diabetes integrated care at a population level. We have assessed the impact of introducing a community service-led diabetes integrated care programme on commissioner payments (tariff) for inpatient care in rural England.MethodsThe Diabetes Integrated Care Initiative was delivered by a separate enhanced community diabetes service, increasing specialist nursing, dietetic, podiatry and medical support to primary care and patients, while linking into other diabetes specialist services. Commissioner data were provided by the local authority. The difference in area between the two overlapping distribution curves of inpatient payments at baseline and follow-up (at 3 years) was used to estimate the effect of integrated care on commissioner inpatient payments on a population level.ResultsOver the 3-year period, reduced inpatient payments occurred in 2.7% (1.3% to 5.8%) of patients with diabetes aged more than 70 years in the intervention area. However, reduced diabetes inpatient payments occurred in 3.20% (1.77% to 7.20%) of patients aged ConclusionThis enhanced community diabetes services was not associated with substantially reduced inpatient payments. Alternative diabetes integrated care approaches (eg, with direct primary and secondary care collaboration rather than with a community service) should be tested.

IntroductionDischarge documents are important for transferring information from hospitals to the referring clinician; in the UK and many countries, this is often the patient’s general practitioner or family physician. However, patients may or may not receive their discharge letters, and whether patients should routinely receive discharge letters remains unclear.Methods and analysisThe review will consolidate evidence on patients receiving discharge letters through the theory-driven approach of a realist review.The review will be conducted systematically and seek to explain how, why, for whom and in what contexts does this practice ‘work’. The review will specifically explore whether therearebenefits of this practice and if so what are the important contexts for triggering the mechanisms associated with these outcome benefits. Negative effects will also be considered.Several steps will occur: devising initial rough programme theory, searching the evidence, selecting relevant documents, extracting data, synthesising and finally programme theory refinement. As the process is viewed as iterative, this cycle of steps may be repeated as many times as is necessary to reachtheoretical saturationand may not be linear.The initial programme theory will be tested and refined throughout the review process and by stakeholder involvement of National Health Service (NHS) policy makers, practitioners and service users.Ethics and disseminationFormal ethical review is not required. The resulting programme theory is anticipated to explain how the intervention of patients receiving written discharge communication may work in practice, for whom and in what contexts; this will inform best practice of patients receiving discharge communication. The review findings will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal and presentations and discussions with relevant organisations and stakeholders. While the review will be from the perspective of the UK NHS, its findings should be relevant to other healthcare systems.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42017069863.

Objective To determine characteristics associated with monthly chest pain and shortness of breath (SoB) during activity in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and trajectories of these symptoms over 10 months. Study design and setting Baseline questionnaire was sent to patients aged ≥40 years from 10 UK general practices. Responders were sent monthly questionnaires for 10 months. For patients with CVD (ischaemic heart disease and heart failure), the association of sociodemographic characteristics, pain elsewhere and anxiety and depression with monthly reports of chest pain and SoB during activity were determined using multilevel, multinomial logistic regression. Common symptom trajectories were determined using dual trajectory latent class growth analysis. Results 661 patients with CVD completed at least 5 monthly questionnaires. Multiple other pain sites (relative risk ratio: 4.03; 95% CI 1.64 to 9.91) and anxiety or depression (relative risk ratio: 3.31; 95% CI 1.89 to 5.79) were associated with reporting weekly chest pain. Anxiety or depression (relative risk ratio: 4.10; 95% CI 2.72 to 6.17), obesity (relative risk ratio: 2.53; 95% CI 1.49 to 4.30), older age (80+: relative risk ratio: 2.51; 95% CI 1.19 to 5.26), increasing number of pain sites (4+: relative risk ratio: 4.64; 95% CI 2.35 to 9.18) and female gender (relative risk ratio: 1.81; 95% CI 1.20 to 2.75) were associated with reporting weekly SoB. Eight symptom trajectories were identified, with SoB symptoms more common than chest pain. Conclusions Potentially modifiable characteristics are associated with the experience of chest pain and SoB. Identified symptom trajectories may facilitate tailored care to improve outcomes in patients with CVD.

Objectives To examine the prevalence and frequency of electronic (e)-cigarette use among young people in Wales, associations with socio-demographic characteristics, smoking and other substances and the sequencing of e-cigarette and tobacco use.\ud \ud Design A cross-sectional survey of school students in Wales undertaken in 2015.\ud \ud Setting 87 secondary schools in Wales.\ud \ud Participants Students aged 11–16 (n=32 479).\ud \ud Results Overall, students were nearly twice as likely to report ever using e-cigarettes (18.5%) as smoking tobacco (10.5%). Use of e-cigarettes at least weekly was 2.7% in the whole sample, rising to 5.7% among those aged 15–16. Almost half (41.8%) of daily smokers reported being regular e-cigarette users. Regular e-cigarette use was more prevalent among current cannabis users (relative risk ratio (RRR)=41.82; 95% CI 33.48 to 52.25)), binge drinkers (RRR=47.88; 95% CI 35.77 to 64.11), users of mephedrone (RRR=32.38; 95% CI 23.05 to 45.52) and laughing gas users (RRR=3.71; 95% CI 3.04 to 4.51). Multivariate analysis combining demographics and smoking status showed that only gender (being male) and tobacco use independently predicted regular use of e-cigarettes (p

ObjectivesAlthough cardiovascular disease (CVD) is of growing importance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there are conflicting views regarding CVD as a major public health problem for the urban poor, including those living in slums. We examine multivariable risk prediction in a slum population and assess the number of cardiovascular related deaths within 10 years of application of the tool.SettingWe use data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) population (residents of two slum communities) between May 2008 and April 2009.DesignThis is a secondary data analysis from a cross-sectional survey. We use the WHO/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk prediction tool to examine 10-year risk of major CVD events in a slum population. CVD deaths in the cohort, reported up until June 2018 and identified through verbal autopsy are also presented.Participants3063 men and women aged over 40 years with complete data for variables needed for the WHO/ISH risk prediction tool were eligible to take part.ResultsThe majority of study members (2895, 94.5%) were predicted to have ‘low’ risk (20% were identified as dying of CVD.ConclusionsThis study shows that there is a low risk profile of CVD in this slum population in Nairobi, Kenya, in comparison to results from application of multivariable risk prediction tools in other LMIC populations. This has implications for health service planning in these contexts.

ObjectivesTo develop an understanding of men’s experiences of first-time fatherhood, their mental health and wellbeing needs.DesignA qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using framework analysis.SettingTwo large National Health Service integrated care trusts covering four London (UK) local authority boroughs.ParticipantsFirst-time fathers with children under 12 months of age were included. Maximum variation sampling was used, with 21 fathers recruited. Ten of these men described their ethnic background as Indian, seven as White British, one as Spanish, one as Black African, one as Black Caribbean and one as Pakistani. Participants’ ages ranged from 20 to over 60 years; completion of full-time education ranged from high school certificate to doctorate level; and annual income ranged from £15 000 to over £61 000. Non-English speaking fathers, those experiencing bereavement following neonatal death, stillbirth, pregnancy loss, sudden infant death, and fathers with existing severe mental illnesses were excluded.ResultsNine major categories were identified: ‘preparation for fatherhood’, ‘rollercoaster of feelings’, ‘new identity’, ‘challenges and impact’, ‘changed relationship: we’re in a different place’, ‘coping and support’, ‘health professionals and services: experience, provision and support’, ‘barriers to accessing support’, and ‘men’s perceived needs: what fathers want’. Resident (residing with their partner and baby) and non-resident fathers in this study highlighted broadly similar needs, as did fathers for whom English was their first language and those for whom it was not. A key finding of this study relates to men’s own perceived needs and how they would like to be supported during the perinatal period, contributing to the current evidence.ConclusionsThis study provides insight into first-time fathers’ experiences during their transition to fatherhood, with important implications for healthcare policy makers, service providers and professionals for how perinatal and early years services are planned and provided for both new parents.