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BackgroundAgeing adults are likely to expect informal caregiving assistance from a friend or family member, reflecting the reality that most long-term care (LTC) is provided by family and friends. The purpose of the study was to determine the likelihood that expectations of care will be unmet at the onset of functional disability, and the factors that impact that likelihood.MethodsCommunity-dwelling respondents from biannual repeated assessments (2006–2010) of the Health and Retirement Study over age 65 who expressed a caregiving expectation prior to need were included in the final analytical sample (n=1352). Logistic regression and change models were specified to address impact of variables on unmet expectations.ResultsExpectations of care were unmet for almost one-third (32%) of the sample, among whom 30% were not receiving needed care. Unmet expectations were associated with being unmarried, older and having a higher number of ADL deficits. Change over time in the number of predictor variables influenced the likelihood of unmet expectations.ConclusionsUnplanned dependence on formal care systems and/or having unmet care needs places elders at risk of negative outcomes. Knowledge of factors that impact whether expected care is eventually received provides robust evidence for counselling individuals regarding the need to plan for additional LTC services.