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Objective Susceptibility of patients with cancer to COVID-19 pneumonitis has been variable. We aim to quantify the risk of hospitalisation in patients with active cancer and use a machine learning algorithm (MLA) and traditional statistics to predict clinical outcomes and mortality. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting A single UK district general hospital. Participants Data on total hospital admissions between March 2018 and June 2020, all active cancer diagnoses between March 2019 and June 2020 and clinical parameters of COVID-19-positive admissions between March 2020 and June 2020 were collected. 526 COVID-19 admissions without an active cancer diagnosis were compared with 87 COVID-19 admissions with an active cancer diagnosis. Primary and secondary outcome measures 30-day and 90-day post-COVID-19 survival. Results In total, 613 patients were enrolled with male to female ratio of 1:6 and median age of 77 years. The estimated infection rate of COVID-19 was 87 of 22 729 (0.4%) in the patients with cancer and 526 of 404 379 (0.1%) in the population without cancer (OR of being hospitalised with COVID-19 if having cancer is 2.942671 (95% CI: 2.344522 to 3.693425); p Conclusions Active cancer diagnosis has a threefold increase in risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Increased age, urea and CRP predict mortality in patients with cancer. MLA complements traditional statistical analysis in identifying prognostic variables for outcomes of COVID-19 infection in patients with cancer. This study provides proof of concept for MLA in risk prediction for COVID-19 in patients with cancer and should inform a redesign of cancer services to ensure safe delivery of cancer care.

Introduction Sarcopenia is a progressive loss in muscle mass, strength and function, the adverse consequences of which are severe, affecting quality of life and placing an increasing burden on social and healthcare systems. Vitamin D status is known to be associated with markers of sarcopenia, namely muscle mass, strength and function. Also, resistance exercise training (RET) is currently the only proven intervention to treat sarcopenia. However, very little data exist on the influence of combining the two interventions of vitamin D supplementation and resistance exercise training, although a recent systematic review provides tentative support for the current study’s hypothesis that the combined intervention may further improve musculoskeletal function above exercise training alone. The aim of the present study is to determine whether vitamin D3 supplementation is any more effective in improving musculoskeletal function when combined with RET compared with exercise training alone in older adults. Methods and analysis This double-blinded randomised placebo-controlled trial will recruit a target of 127 eligible men and women aged ≥65 years living independently or in sheltered housing within the Birmingham area to two groups: (1) 6 months RET and placebo or (2) 6 months RET and 800 IU/d vitamin D3. Measures of muscle power (Nottingham Power Rig), body composition (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry), muscle function (short physical performance battery, timed up and go), falls and fractures as events will be assessed. Assessments will take place at baseline and postintervention, with intermittent monitoring of bone turnover, calcium and vitamin D. The primary outcome will be lower limb extensor power output. Analyses of within-group changes and between-group differences in outcome measures are planned. Ethics and dissemination The EXVITD study has ethical approval granted by the Black Country National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (14/WM/1220). Results of this trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. The study is being conducted according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki. Trial registration number NCT02467153; Post-results.

IntroductionSarcopenia is a progressive loss in muscle mass, strength and function, the adverse consequences of which are severe, affecting quality of life and placing an increasing burden on social and healthcare systems. Vitamin D status is known to be associated with markers of sarcopenia, namely muscle mass, strength and function. Also, resistance exercise training (RET) is currently the only proven intervention to treat sarcopenia. However, very little data exist on the influence of combining the two interventions of vitamin D supplementation and resistance exercise training, although a recent systematic review provides tentative support for the current study’s hypothesis that the combined intervention may further improve musculoskeletal function above exercise training alone. The aim of the present study is to determine whether vitamin D3supplementation is any more effective in improving musculoskeletal function when combined with RET compared with exercise training alone in older adults.Methods and analysisThis double-blinded randomised placebo-controlled trial will recruit a target of 127 eligible men and women aged ≥65 years living independently or in sheltered housing within the Birmingham area to two groups: (1) 6 months RET and placebo or (2) 6 months RET and 800 IU/d vitamin D3. Measures of muscle power (Nottingham Power Rig), body composition (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry), muscle function (short physical performance battery, timed up and go), falls and fractures as events will be assessed. Assessments will take place at baseline and postintervention, with intermittent monitoring of bone turnover, calcium and vitamin D. The primary outcome will be lower limb extensor power output. Analyses of within-group changes and between-group differences in outcome measures are planned.Ethics and disseminationThe EXVITD study has ethical approval granted by the Black Country National Health Service Research Ethics Committee (14/WM/1220). Results of this trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. The study is being conducted according to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki.Trial registration numberNCT02467153; Post-results.

ObjectiveTo investigate delays from symptom onset to rheumatology assessment for patients with a new onset of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or unclassified arthritis.MethodsNewly presenting adults with either RA or unclassified arthritis were recruited from rheumatology clinics. Data on the length of time between symptom onset and first seeing a GP (patient delay), between first seeing a general practitioner (GP) and being referred to a rheumatologist (general practitioner delay) and being seen by a rheumatologist following referral (hospital delay) were captured.Results822 patients participated (563 female, mean age 55 years). The median time between symptom onset and seeing a rheumatologist was 27.2 weeks (IQR 14.1–66 weeks); only 20% of patients were seen within the first 3 months following symptom onset. The median patient delay was 5.4 weeks (IQR 1.4–26.3 weeks). Patients who purchased over-the-counter medications or used ice/heat packs took longer to seek help than those who did not. In addition, those with a palindromic or an insidious symptom onset delayed for longer than those with a non-palindromic or acute onset. The median general practitioner delay was 6.9 weeks (IQR 2.3–20.3 weeks). Patients made a mean of 4 GP visits before being referred. The median hospital delay was 4.7 weeks (IQR 2.9–7.5 weeks).ConclusionThis study identified delays at all levels in the pathway towards assessment by a rheumatologist. However, delays in primary care were particularly long. Patient delay was driven by the nature of symptom onset. Complex multi-faceted interventions to promote rapid help seeking and to facilitate prompt onward referral from primary care should be developed.

Objective To compare adalimumab versus etanercept in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to test the hypothesis that adalimumab was not inferior to etanercept in terms of drug continuation by a margin of 15% after 52 weeks of treatment. Design Pragmatic, randomised, parallel group, multicentre, unblinded and non-inferiority trial. Randomisation stratified by baseline use of methotrexate. Participants 125 adults with active RA despite treatment with two disease-modifying drugs (DMARDs), including methotrexate randomised (1 : 1) to adalimumab 40 mg alternate weeks or etanercept 50 mg weekly, added to existing medication. Measurements The primary outcome was proportion of patients continuing treatment after 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes included: disease activity score using 28 joints (DAS28), treatment satisfaction (TSQM V.2), health status (Euroqol-5D), drug toxicity and persistence with therapy after 2 years. Results Persistence with therapy was 65% for adalimumab versus 56.7% for etanercept (one-sided 95% CI for proportion still taking adalimumab minus proportion on etanercept ≥−7.9%); demonstrating non-inferiority at the 15% margin. After 2 years these figures were: adalimumab 58.3% and etanecept 43.3% (CI ≥−1.7%). The proportion of good, moderate and non-responders based on DAS28-C reactive protein, after 52 weeks, were 26.3%, 33.3% and 40.4%, respectively, for adalimumab versus 16.7%, 31.7% and 51.7%, respectively, for etanercept (p=0.158). Baseline median EQ-5D scores improved from 0.52 to 0.69 for adalimumab and from 0.52 to 0.64 for etanercept (p=0.046) after 52 weeks. Global satisfaction, effectiveness, side effects and convenience scores based on the TSQM were similar for both drugs. Fourteen serious adverse events occurred including two deaths from myocardial infarction, one patient with ovarian cancer and one with acute myeloid leukaemia. Conclusions Clinicians choosing a first tumour necrosis factor inhibitor for active RA, despite trying two DMARDs including methotrexate, may choose either adalimumab or etanercept in the knowledge that these drugs are similarly effective. Clinical trial registration number EU Clinical Trials Register 2006-006275-21/GB.

Background Low adherence to medicines is an important issue as up to 40% of patients with chronic diseases do not take their medications as prescribed. This leads to suboptimal clinical benefit. In the context of rheumatoid arthritis, there is a dearth of data on adherence to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs among minority ethnic groups. This study aims to assess the relationship between adherence to medicines and biopsychosocial variables in patients with rheumatoid arthritis of South Asian and White British origin. Methods/analysis A mixed methods approach will be used, encompassing a cross-sectional survey of 176 patients collecting demographic and clinical data, including information on adherence behaviour collected using a series of questionnaires. This will be followed by indepth qualitative interviews. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the South Birmingham (10/H1207/89) and Coventry and Warwickshire (12/WM/0041) Research Ethics Committees. The authors will disseminate the findings in peer-reviewed publications.