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Background: Better insight in patients' prognosis can help physicians to timely initiate advance care planning (ACP) discussions with patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to identify predictors of mortality.Methods: We systematically searched databases Embase, PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central in April 2020. Papers reporting on predictors or prognostic models for mortality at 3 months and up to 24 months were assessed on risk-of-bias. We performed a meta-analysis with a fixed or random-effects model, and evaluated the discriminative ability of multivariable prognostic models.Results: We included 42 studies (49-418,251 patients); 18 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Significant predictors of mortality within 3-24 months in the random-effects model were: previous hospitalization for acute exacerbation (hazard ratio [HR] 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.95), hospital readmission within 30 days (HR 5.01; 95% CI 2.16-11.63), cardiovascular comorbidity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.25-2.87), age (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.38-1.59), male sex (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.38-1.59), and long-term oxygen therapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.10-2.73). Nineteen previously developed multicomponent prognostic models, as examined in 11 studies, mostly had moderate discriminate ability.Conclusion: Identified predictors of mortality may aid physicians in selecting COPD patients who may benefit from ACP. However, better discriminative ability of prognostic models or development of a new prognostic model is needed for further large-scale implementation.Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42016038494), https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aspiration pneumonia (AP) is a common complication in the intensive care unit (ICU), which is associated with significantly increased morbidity and mortality and has a significant impact on patient prognosis. Antibiotics are commonly used in the clinical treatment of AP. However, the prognostic impact of antibiotics on patients with AP has not been adequately characterized. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the relationship between the use of antibiotics and in-hospital mortality of AP patients, as well as to analyze the effects of different antibiotic treatment regimens on the prognosis of the patients, and to further understand the distribution of pathogens and drug resistance in AP patients, so as to provide guidance information for the rational use of medication for patients in the clinic. Methods: Clinical data of AP patients were extracted from the MIMIC-IV database. Statistical methods included multivariate logistic regression, propensity score matching (PSM), and inverse probability weighting (IPW) based on propensity scores to ensure the robustness of the findings. In addition, the characteristics of the medications used by patients with AP were described using statistical graphs and tables. Results: A total of 4132 patients with AP were included. In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in the group using antibiotics compared to the group not using antibiotics (odds ratio [OR] = 0.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27- 0.71, P = 0.001). Furthermore, in the group using mechanical ventilation (MV), antibiotics use significantly reduced in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.15–0.57, P < 0.001). Vancomycin and cephalosporins are the most commonly used antibiotics to treat AP. Specifically, vancomycin in combination with piperacillin-tazobactam was used most frequently with 396 cases. The highest survival rate (97.6\%) was observed in patients treated with levofloxacin combined with metronidazole. Additionally, vancomycin combined with piperacillin-tazobactam had many inflammation related features that differed significantly from those in patients who did not receive medication. Conclusions: Antibiotics use is closely associated with lower in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AP. Moreover, understanding antibiotics use, the composition of pathogenic bacteria, and the rates of drug resistance in patients with AP can aid in disease prevention and prompt infection control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about the trends in morbidity and mortality at the population level that followed the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators for COPD. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the availability of new bronchodilators was associated with changes in the temporal trends in severe COPD exacerbations and mortality between 2007 and 2018 in the older population with COPD; and whether this association was homogeneous across sex and socioeconomic status classes. Methods: We used an interrupted time-series and three segments multivariate autoregressive models to evaluate the adjusted changes in slopes (i.e., trend effect) in monthly severe exacerbation and mortality rates after 03/2013 and 02/2015 compared to the tiotropium period (04/2007 to 02/2013). Cohorts of individuals > 65 years with COPD were created from the nationally representative database of the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System in the province of Quebec, Canada. Whether these trends were similar for men and women and across different socioeconomic status classes was also assessed. Results: There were 130,750 hospitalizations for severe exacerbation and 104,460 deaths, including 24,457 (23.4%) respiratory-related deaths, over the study period (928,934 person-years). Significant changes in trends were seen after 03/2013 for all-cause mortality (-1.14%/month;95%CI -1.90% to -0.38%), which further decreased after 02/2015 (-1.78%/month;95%CI -2.70% to -0.38%). Decreases in respiratory-related mortality (-2.45%/month;95%CI -4.38% to -0.47%) and severe exacerbation (-1,90%/month;95%CI -3.04% to -0.75%) rates were only observed after 02/2015. These observations tended to be more pronounced in women than in men and in higher socioeconomic status groups (less deprived) than in lower socioeconomic status groups (more deprived). Conclusions: The arrival of newer bronchodilators was chronologically associated with reduced trends in severe exacerbation, all-cause and respiratory-related mortality rates among people with COPD > 65 years. Our findings document population benefits on key patient-relevant outcomes in the years following the introduction of newer once-daily long-acting bronchodilators and their combinations, which were likely multifactorial. Public health efforts should focus on closing the gap between lower and higher socioeconomic status groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Shipping and port-related air pollution has a significant health impact on a global scale. The present study aimed to assess the mortality burden attributable to long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the city of Ancona (Italy), with one of the leading national commercial harbours. Methods: Exposure to air pollutants was derived by dispersion models. The relationship between the long-term exposure of air pollution exposure and cause-specific mortality was evaluated by Poisson regression models, after adjustment for gender, age and socioeconomic status. Results are expressed as percent change of risk (and relative 95% confidence intervals) per 5 unit increases in the exposures. The health impact on the annual number of premature cause-specific deaths was also assessed. Results: PM2.5 and NO2 annual concentrations were higher in the area close to the harbour than in the rest of the city. Positive associations between each pollutant and most of the mortality outcomes were observed, with estimates of up to 7.6% (95%CI 0.1, 15.6%) for 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 and cardiovascular mortality and 15.3% (95%CI-1.1, 37.2%) for 10 µg/m3 increase PM2.5 and lung cancer. In the subpopulation living close to the harbour, there were excess risks of up to 13.5%, 24.1% and 37.9% for natural, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. The number of annual premature deaths due to the excess of PM2.5 and NO2 exposure (having as a reference the 2021 World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines) was 82 and 25, respectively. Conclusions: Our study confirms the long-term health effects of PM and NO2 on mortality and reveals a higher mortality burden in areas close to shipping and port-related emissions. Estimating the source-specific health burdens is key to achieve a deeper understanding of the role of different emission sources, as well as to support effective and targeted mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP), defined as reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) in absence of airflow obstruction (AFO), is associated with increased risk of mortality in general population. However, evidence in the patients with silicosis is limited. This study was aimed to investigate the relationship between RSP and the risk of death in a silicotic cohort. Method: This retrospective cohort study used data from the Pneumoconiosis Clinic, Hong Kong Department of Health that containing 4315 patients aged 18–80 years and diagnosed with silicosis during 1981–2019, with a follow-up till 31 December 2019. Spirometry was carried out at the diagnostic examination of silicosis. Lung function categories were classified as normal spirometry (FEV1/FVC ≥ 0.7, FVC ≥ 80% predicted), RSP only (FEV1/FVC ≥ 0.7, FVC < 80% predicted), AFO only (FEV1/FVC < 0.7, FVC ≥ 80% predicted), and RSP&AFO mixed (FEV1/FVC < 0.7, FVC < 80% predicted). The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were computed using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, body mass index, history of tuberculosis, smoking status, pack-years, and radiographic characteristics of silicotic nodules. Results: Among the 4315 patients enrolled in the study, the prevalence of RSP was 24.1% (n = 1038), including 11.0% (n = 473) with RSP only and 13.1% (n = 565) with mixed RSP and AFO. During the follow-up period, a total of 2399 (55.6%) deaths were observed. Compared with the silicotics with normal spirometry, those with RSP only had significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.44–1.85) and respiratory-related mortality (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.31–1.85). Notably, a higher risk of mortality was observed in silicotics with mixed ventilatory defects of both RSP and AFO (all-cause mortality: HR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.95–2.52; respiratory-related mortality: HR = 2.59, 95% CI 2.18–3.07) than in those with RSP only. Conclusion: RSP is significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause and respiratory-related mortality in the silicotics, and patients with mixed restrictive and obstructive ventilatory defect have higher risk of mortality than those with single RSP or AFO. These findings emphasize the importance of recognizing RSP in the occupational settings, especially for the silicotic patients with mixed ventilatory defect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Create a timeline of diagnosis and treatment for IPF in the US. Design, setting, and participants: A retrospective analysis was performed in collaboration with the OptumLabs Data Warehouse using an administrative claims database of Medicare Fee for Service beneficiaries. Adults 50 and over with IPF were included (2014 to 2019). Exposure: To focus on IPF, the following diagnoses were excluded: post-inflammatory fibrosis, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, rheumatoid arthritis, sarcoidosis, scleroderma, and connective tissue disease. Main outcomes and measures: Data were collected from periods prior, during, and following initial clinical diagnosis of IPF. This included prior respiratory diagnoses, number of respiratory-related hospitalizations, anti-fibrotic and oxygen use, and survival. Results: A total of 44,891 with IPF were identified. The most common diagnoses prior to diagnosis of IPF were upper respiratory infections (47%), acute bronchitis (13%), other respiratory disease (10%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis (7%), and pneumonia (6%). The average time to a diagnosis of IPF was 2.7 years after initial respiratory diagnosis. Half of patients had two or more respiratory-related hospitalizations prior to IPF diagnosis. Also, 37% of patients were prescribed oxygen prior to diagnosis of IPF. These observations suggest delayed diagnosis. We also observed only 10.4% were treated with anti-fibrotics. Overall survival declined each year after diagnosis with median survival of 2.80 years. Conclusions and relevance: Our retrospective cohort demonstrates that IPF is often diagnosed late, usually preceded by other respiratory diagnoses and hospitalizations. Use of available therapies is low and outcomes remain poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) is a major source of global morbidity and mortality. Latent infection has enabled it to spread to a quarter of the world's population. The late 1980s and early 1990s saw an increase in the number of TB cases related to the HIV epidemic, and the spread of multidrug-resistant TB. Few studies have reported pulmonary TB mortality trends. Our study reports and compares trends in pulmonary TB mortality. Methods: We utilized the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database from 1985 through 2018 to analyze TB mortality using the International Classification of Diseases-10 codes. Based on the availability and quality of data, we investigated 33 countries including two countries from the Americas; 28 countries from Europe; and 3 countries from the Western Pacific region. Mortality rates were dichotomized by sex. We computed age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population using the world standard population. Time trends were investigated using joinpoint regression analysis. Results: We observed a uniform decrease in mortality in all countries across the study period except the Republic of Moldova, which showed an increase in female mortality (+ 0.12 per 100,000 population). Among all countries, Lithuania had the greatest reduction in male mortality (-12) between 1993–2018, and Hungary had the greatest reduction in female mortality (-1.57) between 1985–2017. For males, Slovenia had the most rapid recent declining trend with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -47% (2003–2016), whereas Croatia showed the fastest increase (EAPC, + 25.0% [2015–2017]). For females, New Zealand had the most rapid declining trend (EAPC, -47.2% [1985–2015]), whereas Croatia showed a rapid increase (EAPC, + 24.9% [2014–2017]). Conclusions: Pulmonary TB mortality is disproportionately higher among Central and Eastern European countries. This communicable disease cannot be eliminated from any one region without a global approach. Priority action areas include ensuring early diagnosis and successful treatment to the most vulnerable groups such as people of foreign origin from countries with a high burden of TB and incarcerated population. Incomplete reporting of TB-related epidemiological data to WHO excluded high-burden countries and limited our study to 33 countries only. Improvement in reporting is crucial to accurately identify changes in epidemiology, the effect of new treatments, and management approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To clarify the relationship between the PaO2/FiO2 and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study regarding MIMIC-IV database. Nineteen thousand two hundred thirty-three patients with sepsis were included in the final analysis. PaO2/FiO2 was exposure variable, 28-day mortality was outcome variable. PaO2/FiO2 was log-transformed as LnPaO2/FiO2. Binary logistic regression was used to explore the independent effects of LnPaO2/FiO2 on 28-day mortality using non-adjusted and multivariate-adjusted models. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve fitting was used to investigate the non-linear relationship between LnPaO2/FiO2 and 28-day mortality. A two-piecewise linear model was used to calculate the OR and 95% CI on either side of the inflection point. Results: The relationship between LnPaO2/FiO2 and risk of 28-day death in sepsis patients was U-shape. The inflection point of LnPaO2/FiO2 was 5.30 (95%CI: 5.21—5.39), which indicated the inflection point of PaO2/FiO2 was 200.33 mmHg (95%CI: 183.09 mmHg—219.20 mmHg). On the left of inflection point, LnPaO2/FiO2 was negatively correlated with 28-day mortality (OR: 0.37, 95%CI: 0.32—0.43, p < 0.0001). On the right of inflection point, LnPaO2/FiO2 was positively correlated with 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis (OR: 1.53, 95%CI: 1.31—1.80, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In patients with sepsis, either a high or low PaO2/FiO2 was associated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality. In the range of 183.09 mmHg to 219.20 mmHg, PaO2/FiO2 was associated with a lower risk of 28-day death in patients with sepsis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]